Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
[clear]
This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
[divider_1px_dashed]
[clear]
Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
[divider_1px]
Great article once again. Really good points and has prompted me to think of these moves. For a hit what do you think of Mings –> Kolarov and Milner –> Redmond?? This is my team as lined up for the weekend.
Hey Matt, see you play Real Racing 3 too :thumbup:
They’re not bad moves at all but it’s always risky taking a hit for a defender, especially when said defender is subject to rotation. I do like the look of your team more with those moves though.
Haha hey Calvin it’s a good game
I thought Kolarov has nailed his place now or at least that’s the idea I got from the talk here the other day?? Would prefer Kompany but would have to sell Azpi to bring him in.
What those moves would do is provide me with a selection dilemma but that’s a good sign.
Replace Huth with Gomez, and you wouldnt need to take a hit because your defense would look solid.
Get Ritchie in place of Milner. B)
I was thinking of playing Gomez as well but can’t decide on playing 4 defenders yet plus City should really get a CS this week but Gomez to Huth I would do.
Why Richie hasn’t Redmond been better this season plus his fixtures are nice.
Ritchie is on free kicks and corners, and has LEI, nor, SUN and WAT in coming 5 GWs.
Dont like Redmond’s fixtures so much.
Just had a look and his fixtures are better but that move would mean I wouldn’t be able to bring in Kolarov
What do you say fellas / felladies? Want to get Pedro in for Depay but am 0.6 shy, so have a couple of options – either Payet or Darmian will be making way.
A (3-5-2): Darmian + Depay –> Naughton/ Gradel + Pedro
C (3-4-3): Payet + Watmore (bench) + Depay –> Westwood (bench) + Diouf + Pedro
Forget about hits; which group of players would you rather have in your team? It effectively comes down to Payet + Naughton, Gradel + Darmian, or Diouf + Darmian. Thanks.
I’d go down the 3-4-3 route to get rid of Watmore, granted the 4.5 mids are pretty crappy but they’re a hell of a lot better than the 4.5 forwards.
I would keep Darmian and Diouf mate.
Not sure how you’d turn Darmian into Gradel there CC but… the Diouf + Darmian pairing sounds best.
Don’t know what happened but there was an A, B and C! Please look again.
A (3-5-2): Darmian + Depay –> Naughton/ Gradel + Pedro
C (3-4-3): Payet + Watmore (bench) + Depay –> Westwood (bench) + Diouf + Pedro
OK I’ve found a glitch in the Matrix… Will try writing it differently:
A (3-5-2): Darmian + Payet –> Naughton/5.0 + Pedro
B (3-5-2): Payet + Depay –> Gradel + Pedro
C (3-4-3): Payet + Watmore (bench) + Depay –> Westwood (bench) + Diouf + Pedro
A I think
B for sure 😉
Evening All!
I know it’s a bit early but any ideas on what I should do for this week?
This is currently my team (was thinking payet to shaqiri)
Team looks good mate and I like that move
Hey Mitro, I thought about that move, and would probably go for it if it didn’t leave me 0.1 short of getting Pedro. If you have no other planned moves though how about Depay to Shaqiri instead and pocket the cash? Payet has looked better to me so far.
If you have used up your WC, then Payet > Shaqiri seems like a wasteful transfer, considering that Payet has home games against Newcastle and Norwich, and away games against Sunderland and Palace in the coming 6 GWs.
If you still have WC and are playing it in international break, then Coutinho/Shaqiri/Ritchie are good punts.
Play 2 out of these 4 players for GW4.
Daniels (LEI)
Payet (liv)
Westwood (SUN)
Richards (SUN)
Currently have Daniels and Payet in the team, but really want to play 4 at the back and have both Daniels and Richards in there.
But then again, 4 at the back has never worked for me in the past.
Thoughts?
I would play Richards anyway mate but I’m also considering playing 4 defenders too but Payet would probably be the better option.
Yeah, probably, because of set pieces.
Ye exactly
Unless you were forced to play Westwood for some reason I don’t see why you’d ever want to play 4 at the back. I benched Payet in GW1 try to play to play a rotating pair and he grabbed an assist; I’d always play him. I’d also go for Richards over Daniels.
Richards in.
And yeah, Westwood did this same thing in GW1, he grabbed an assist and was on my bench.
Well Payet is on a different than Westwood…
Any suggestions what to do with this team? I have not had too much luck so far this season
Hey Smash, that’s a very strong attack, you’ve been unlucky. If you have no immediate WC plans then I’d look at Hazard to Sanchez with the FT this GW and then change Ozil next GW.
+1
Or if you didn’t want to have Double Arsenal cover Haz to Pedro this week and Ozil to Sanchez next week.
Yeah I think that’s what I was looking at. Shame I can’t do Hazard and Ozil to Pedro and Sanchez as I think that sounds much better. I am considering Targett and Pedro in for Ozil and Cedric? Then I can worry about defence when I wild card. I am a bit afraid of doing Hazard to Sanchez coz I would not be surprised to see Chelsea score a few at home to Palace
Team is fine. Keep the transfer.
Guys just make sure that if you get Pedro then make sure all your team plays… we all know uncle Jose LOVES those sneaky rotations suddenly…
I’m not sure if there will be at the moment. Chelsea are playing catch up and can’t afford any more slip ups.
Fair point. But a lot of people have/will have used there WC and gotten Pedro in… just looking out for future plans