Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
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This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
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Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Just a potty question for you all and please answer underneath.
After reading this cracking Article who out of all of us……..
1 = Wildcarded before Gwk 3 ?
2 = Will Wildcard for Gwk 4 ?
Thanks
Potty
Hi Potty. Holding my WC despite a shocking start. It’s always better to let the window close, the lineups settle, the form players to emerge before acting too rashly. Everyone who picked Montero should be feeling the same way…
Hey Potty,
I didn’t WC, i’ll keep hold of it for awhile longer.
I can get the 3 City i want with my 1 FT this week
1 – Didn’t
2 – Tempting, but won’t. Team is fairly balanced and I guess the temptation to transfer everyone is there every gameweek… Took a -8 hit on GW3 and that paid off (62pts) so going with the boring 1 transfer probably or -4 if needed (that mahrez fellow…).
Morning all, and thanks for a great article- lots of good ideas in there. My fortunes picked up this week. Though overall ranking continues to be much lower than I’d like (2.5m!) I think that the first XI is good (don’t mention the bench!) and to panic would be a mistake.
That said, got 1 FT this week, and thinking of dropping Koscielny for Kolarov or Sagna. Arsenal’s defensive fixtures aren’t the best in the next couple of games (Newcastle aside). That said, if he’s fit he’s nailed, whereas Ivanovic is starting to feel a bit of a dodgy pick. Maybe I’ll wait until the press conferences and then do Ivan > City defender if Kos is passed fit? Anything else urgent? The bench is weak but that can wait for now. Also, I have Sterling not Silva/Yaya, but I think it must only be a matter of time before he gets some points on the board. Keeping Hazard for now- offloading for Pedro is a very sideways move I think.
Pippin – I agree a City defender would be good – it’s a bit of a toss up between whether to sell, Ivan or Kos, though if Kos is still injured come Friday then prob just get rid of him.
I Know what you say about Hazard to Pedro being a sideways move but I would be surprised if Haz massively outscored Pedro over the season and that 1.5mln could be very useful. It’s similar to the Yaya/Silva scenario I guess. Personally I believe Pedro is brilliant value at 9.5 and was the first name on my wildcard. And I’m not just saying that cos he did well on Sunday, ask NZ Alex!!
That’s fair Cookie, 1.5m goes a long way. This business of when to jump ship and when to sit tight is one of the biggest challenges in this game, and to be honest I think it’s down to luck as much as intuition.
Any preference on Kolarov or Sagna? The former obviously gets forward more, but there’s the niggling doubt that Pellegrini will just pick Clichy one day…
Pippin, there is certainly a load of luck around. Just not near me and a few others right now!! Oh well!
Preference between Kolarov and Sagna? hmmm Kolarov as you say, is defo most effective going forward, but you summed it up by saying Pell is likely to pick Clichy at some point. Home to Watford? Ouch – could you imagine the fall out on here?!!
Sagna on that basis is probably more secure short term as Zaba is injured and unavailable. It’s a real toss up mate – personally I’d go Kolarov and just accept he won’t play every week but hopefully makes up the points whwn he does.
Pippin/Cookie, I think the Haz-Pedro sideways move is a very good one. My WC team felt lopsided without Chelsea cover in and, despite Cookie telling me too, I didn’t put Pedro in. Regret that now, (he is going in for a 4PH this week!) The price difference is huge and will make a big difference to your team longterm I feel. Pedro is access into the Blues forward line for a very good price. If your thinking of WC-ing soon then I would hold Haz till you do, if not then I would make the move to Pedro soon.
I like your thinking about the defender, good call.
Ok Alex, I’m feeling like you’re onto something here: is it worth prioritising though? I like Pedro, I like another 1.5m, but this may be a post-window WC question: sitting tight with Hazard now, and not taking a hit to get in Pedro still feels to me like the best approach…?
Pippin, in your situation it depends when you plan to WC, if during the International Break then I would hold Haz for now. I think getting City defensive cover is a good move this week.
Of course, the difference is 2mln not 1.5mln – if that helps! Or confuses further
2m, indeed! Tricky call. Thanks for the discussion fellas, I’ll post sometime this week once I’ve decided 😉
Certainly, dropping Hazard and Ivan would raise a tonne of cash for an imminent WC….
Difficult to disagree really with Cookie/Alex here.
3.5 mil (considering initial prices)! I took Haz out for Sánchez and already brought YYT so my next move should be to fit Pedro in for someone like Depay and find the extra quid needed rather than selling Sánchez or otherwise downgrade the whole squad to get Haz (also have Kun, of course).
Hazard will probably outscore Pedro as Silva could outscore YYT but not enough to justify (2+1.5
Interesting FPL year thus far with loads of players scoring FPL points for fun…in all sectors.
The patience/gut/anxiety combo seem to be key at the moment.
Dmc, I’m going to disagree about silva. He is worth the extra cash. Yyt scores most of his points when Kun is off the pitch which, hopefully, won’t be that often. I know Yaya can score well with no stats to back this up but silva is on fire and so unlucky not to have a hatful of goals and assists over he last two weeks. Well worth the extra pounds in my opinion.
Alex – I guess we’ll have the answer come May. YYT just seems to be in beast mode again and when that happens he outscores everyone…(2013/14 -»241 pts.).
Silva is the class player of the league and can surely produce a lot so I wouldn’t advise against getting him in of course.
Just that 1.5 £ helps a lot and YYT is on penalties AND does NOT have Africa Cup this year.
One can always have both just to be on the safe side of things…
Dmc, absolutely pal he defys statistics! And that money is well spent elsewhere! Oh and he is only on penalties when Augero is off the pitch!
Alex – I just did some research.
1 – I think you are right on Kun being ahead of YYT for penalties but would you be surprised to know that on the last 3 seasons only twice was a penalty taken with both on the pitch? Those were 2012/13 against Stoke and 13/14 against Newcastle, taken by Kun. All the others were taken by either YYT or Kun but the other wasn’t on the pitch. There’s a stat then.
2 – I’m not sure on the YYT production being less when Aguero is on the pitch though. Looking at 2013/14 season, in which YYT produced 20 goals, you can see that 7 of those came with Aguero on the pitch. I know 13 is more than 7, but 7 is not a bad figure. Also things even a bit if you take the 5 penalties he scored that season, ie, if you erase the penalties (which would have ben taken by Kun had he been on the pitch) that’s 15 field goals total, 7 being with Kun and 8 without.
I guess that impression people have is only accurate if City get penalties and they are both on the pitch.
Never did this for assits/BPS and also didn’t do the same exercise for Silva, but he is surely behind both for Pens. and I’m not sure he produces more or less with Kun in in a general matter.
Well, stats… cheers mate.
I think i’d do Kos to Kolarov Pippin.
I too have Sterling and will keep him for now, its not like his playing bad so i believe points are coming.
Thanks Photek, that’s what I’m leaning towards at the moment.
Courtois Hennessey
Cedric MERTESACKER Francis Coates Oxford
Yaya Sterling MILNER CAZORLA Mahrez
Aguero Pelle Defoe
no FTs remain and 1.6mn in the bank
Mert Caz n Milner are the issues. Obviously cant sort them all with a 12 point hit. Not willing to WC so the best option that remains is to take a -4 hit
Mert to someone better? How long is he out for?
or should i do Caz to Pedro? leave Mert as is. Starting Cedric, Coates and Francis for GW4??
your responses will be highly appreciated guys. Cheers
Caz > Pedro seems like a good option to me. Don’t worry about Milner just yet. I would avoid an 8pt hit, but if you do do it, then Mertesacker is the one to fix before Milner. Maybe for one of the Utd defenders?
Nis, plus 1! I like Pippins suggestion too.
yeah i agree, i think Caz > Pedro is a good move as you don’t have Haz in there.
Defoe has 2 goals in 3 games so you could even bench Milner depending on the fixtures of both teams
Thanks guys for the help. Caz to Pedro it is then for a hit.
will fix the Mert issue later.
and will bench Milner for Defoe. That was planned
you guys sort my team out perfectly
53 points this week. Quite happy compared to.whatever was going on the first two GWs 😉
Wildcarded last wk and couldn’t be happier now. Team value has shot up and climbed over a million places. I think holding wc is a mistake if team value drops so much and players you want rise. But hey that’s just me, I could regret it in a few weeks. Carrying a transfer over this week. How does this team look? Darmian bench???
Looks top drawer Sledge – yeah Darmian on the bench I think.
Nice team, good to go
Sledge, id get Pedro in for Payet if you can. Nice team.
Thanks guys. Would you play darmian or payet this wk?
Payet
Morning everyone, hope last night’s little upset didn’t cause too much trouble for most managers.
I had Mert on my team, that clean sheet would have been quite handy but oh well.
Considering WC’ing this week.
amazing article guys, it was really valuable to read! i pretty much came to these conclusions by myself but the temptation for the wildcard was there, thanks for chilling me out
btw do you think that Kos to Kolarov is a sideways move? or needs to be done sooner rather later?
Dawids, Not a sideways move, a good one considering the fixtures. Good luck.
thank you Alex,
even for a hit?
Tricky. Depends if you plan to WC soon?
not really, i’m planning to stay strong for a while