Is it time to play that wild card or take a points hit?
Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW4-GW11
So the 2015-16 season has started and many experienced FPL managers have had terrible starts (well based on my own mini-leagues anyway). Chelsea’s form is/was seemingly in decline and with some big hitters like Sanchez and Aguero fit again many managers have already started to panic. Key players like Hazard, Rooney, Sterling, Ivanovic and Walcott are leaving us with captain scores of 4 (and in my GW1 even less!). The only players who seem to be delivering are the City old boys, Man Utd’s new right back and Leicester City’s attackers.
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This Article looks to advise on which teams you should be looking at for your player picks between GW4 and 11 based on their fixtures.
In reviewing this there are a number of questions that need to be answered:
• Is it time to play the H1 wildcard?
• Which teams have the best fixtures?
• Should you get Aguero in now? (and who for?)
• Is Mahrez (or alternative Leicester attacker) worth having?
• What about Sanchez?
• And is having so much invested in Hazard a problem?
If you want the quick answers then the conclusions are:
• Wildcards are worth keeping (but can fix immediate problems).
• Man City’s fixtures are amazing!
• Leicester fixtures continue to be good. A mix of Bournemouth (until GW8) and then Newcastle (GW9 to 11) also offer good budget options.
• You need Aguero from GW4 onwards.
• Mahrez (and some of his colleagues) have form, fixtures and price on his side so get him in.
• Funds permitting you should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke or Hazard.
If you want the theory behind these conclusions then read on otherwise good luck with the next few weeks.
Thanks and please follow me on twitter @fpl_equation and @elldubya1
For this article I have looked at GW4 to GW11 to see which teams have good and bad runs. I have then dug a bit deeper with the traditional top 6 and I have also looked at the budget team options good until GW11 (so don’t be surprised if they keep this run going for a while).
So the fixtures look like this:
My key observations are that:
• Big 6 – Arsenal and Man City have the best fixtures
• Mid table teams – Southampton and Stoke look well placed to get some good results.
• Budget teams – Leicester are still the stand out team. Based on fixtures you could do worse than having Bournemouth (up to GW8) and then Newcastle from (GW 9 on).
Looking at the big 6 team’s fixtures in isolation we can see some big winners and losers in terms of likely FPL points
In Attack:
• City are likely to outscore almost all the other big 6 teams, by almost double. It’s easy to see why, with home fixtures to Watford, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Norwich in the next 8 weeks.
• Arsenal continue to pose a good attacking choice, but which of the 7+ options available do you go for. They can’t all do well.
• Liverpool are the team to avoid with away games at Man Utd, Everton, Tottenham and Chelsea.
In Defence:
• City, because of fixtures, are likely to have the best returns.
• Chelsea despite early season form should come good so don’t abandon ship too soon. However this comes with a slight warning that Terry got subbed in GW2 and of course sent off in GW3, Ivanovic has been roasted by Swansea and Man City wingers, Azpilicueta has competition at left back (but can play right back), Cahill is Cahill and John Stones may or may not join.
• Liverpool and Spurs are the ones to avoid.
Reviewing the budget team fixtures in isolation we can see that there is a mixed bag of fortunes.
Leicester’s fixtures continue to be pretty favourable (with games against Bournemouth, Villa, Norwich, Palace and West Brom) so don’t be surprised to see the current run continue. Other options include a mixing it up with Bournemouth (until GW8) and Newcastle (from GW9). That combination gives you home games against Leicester, Sunderland, Watford, Norwich and Stoke.
Things to consider from the budget teams are:
• Leicester are the stand out budget team and have good options in all positions.
• Every budget team has a performing player or a very cheap playing option.
• Cheap options facilitate big hitters.
• All of the budget teams have a few good games in the next 8 weeks.
So to the questions posed at the start of the article:
Should you get Aguero?
The answer is a clear yes! If you can afford him then you need him from GW4 on. If you can get another 2 players from City then get them as well. Based on fixtures and form this will shoot you up your leagues (and take away multiple captain decisions). His price is rising so act quick!
Who to dump to get him?
Man Utd’s fixtures start to get worse so you may want to lose Rooney. Aguero will outscore Costa and has better fixtures. Finally Liverpool’s fixtures look pretty ugly so Benteke could also go if sold in combination with an expensive midfielder.
Is Mahrez worth having?
Absolutely and at anything under £6m he is a bargain considering the position he plays and Leicester’s next few fixtures. Albrighton is a midfield alternative at £5.1m if funds are tighter. If you can more easily accommodate a forward then Vardy has started the season well and at £6m is only likely to rise over the coming weeks.
What about Sanchez?
Arsenal are likely to have the second best attacking points returns and Sanchez is likely to be involved in most of their goals (and is as good as a nailed on starter as any of the Arsenal midfield). The verdict is he is a better than nice to have but not a must have yet. Be prepared to act fast on him as this could change fast.
What do you do with a problem like Hazard?
Finally there is the incredibly difficult decision of Eden Hazard. We all have (or had!) him so if people start selling (they will) his price will drop. His fixtures are not as good as others and we have a lot of money tied up. Last season he started slow. Then smashed it from GW10(ish) until the end of the season. Pedro has arrived so should help the teams attack. It’s a really tricky one but selling (with a view to buying back later in the season) could be the option here, but only if it’s for Toure, Silva or Sanchez.
Based on the GW 4 to 11 fixtures my conclusions are:
• Try not to play your wild card yet. Most managers have had bad starts as well and the top teams are probably only 20-30 points ahead (1 good game week for you to get it back). The wildcard will be worth more to you later in the year!
• Fill your boots with Manchester City players!
• Leicester is still the best budget team option.
• You need Aguero and Mahrez (or similar Leicester attacker).
• You should want at least 2 of Sanchez, Silva, Toure, Kolarov and Kompany
• It’s a calculated risk losing Rooney, Benteke and Hazard.
• Form is temporary, class is permanent. In FPL you need a bit of both.
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Good luck for the next few weeks and if you like what you have read then please follow
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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I’m quite keen to get pedro in this week for a few reasons:
1-it feels wrong not having a Chelsea attacker in and pedro seems ideal at 9.5.
2- I think once the hold come of his price he will go up quickly making it hard to get him in.
3- if I wait till the international break and I won’t want to make an early transfer incase of injuries therefore his price may go up, making it even harder to get him in.
I need to make a million so I can bring pedro in for depay and thinking of diouf to Wilson which I’m reluctant to do as I like diouf. Any other thoughts?
Alex
I agree wholeheartedly on Pedro coming in.
I see three options:
Diouf to Wilson
Gomis to Vardy (double Leicester I admit)
Darmian to Martin
I’ll be honest, with Bournemouth’s fixtures, I would do the Diouf to Wilson move. It’s a sacrifice but we all have to make them pal. I think they could score similar points.
GP, thanks mate. I looked at vardy but that would be an 8ph as I’d need another 0.5. I don’t mind doing that but vardy and Wilson could score similar over the next few weeks. I can see diouf coming back in down the line maybe when Bournemouth fixtures turn. In the mean time I’ll free up some cash to get him. It’s more of a ‘see you soon’ than ‘goodbye’.
Alex – I see why you’d be aiming at Diouf, but honestly Gomis has a rather tuff schedule from here on. Diouf has 4 perfect home games so I wouldn’t take him out (not for a hit mind).
To get Pedro in, I also see Silva-YYT (I know you prefer Silva, but still…).
Otherwise, you could do the Darmian move GP suggested but you are obviously aware that by doing so you’d have 4.5 defenders + 4.5 keeper!
Oh well, you can’t have them all…
In all honesty, I’d do the Gomis-»Wilson / Pedro-»Depay in your situation and would consider doing it after the window closes given you’d have the extra quid to make any Pedro raise.
I know it’s odd to suggest ditching Gomis but if you want Pedro that bad it just seems the sensible move looking at your squad and fixtures.
Dmc, thanks pal I may go away and have a look at the fixtures a bit more closely. It may be a good move.
GP, sorry pal you are right about being able to afford it, I was thinking diouf to vardy not gomis to vardy.
Alex – Sure mate. We are all on the same boat. That is the Pedro boat. Or is that a bandwagon?
I see 186k have already brought him in (and it was at 131K one hour ago…) so his price will rise for sure either on Friday or surely during the break. It may well be he’s on +0.2 come GW5 deadline…
If I’m bringing him now it’s also for Depay, but I’m missing 0.6 to do that which means hits, etc.
Argh. I may do Merte-»Sagna / Depay-»Mahrez just now (for -4) to release the funds and then Ayew-»Pedro after the break and dodge any price raises he might have. Not good TV wise, but seems sensible pts. wise? Team is linked, what do you think?
Also, your link isn’t working.
Cheers
Dmc, all aboard the Pedro wagon!! that seems a very sensible move mate. Mahez will likely rise as much as pedro so As long as you have one or the other it covers the rise. I like your defensive move as well, city have great fixtures and are defending too well not to have cover there. As you say, by realising funds you have plenty to cover any pedro rises. I like it pal
How are we all who Pedro & Wilson or stick with Gomis & Payet ???
Silvers
I think Pedro looks like he will continue to get some good points on the board and for £9.5M you could well think he is worth every penny. Wilson is looking good short term as well. Shame to lose Gomis and Payet but if it means getting some Chelsea coverage in, then it may have to be the way to go.
Ok I think Im near my decision… 4PH is happening… and WC the following GW…
Cech Hennessey
Cedric Toby Huth Mings Oxford
Hazard Milner Caz Chadli Anya
Aguero Defoe Rooney
A- Rooney and Milner out for Costa and Mahrez
B- Rooney and Milner out for Benteke and Yaya
C- Milner and Caz out for Yaya and Mahrez
PP
I don’t like the idea of -4 the week before a WC. If you are set on playing your WC (in which you can tidy up all the loose ends) then can you get by this weekend with just the Rooney to Benteke move? Rest of the team looks OK to go I think.
Guess it depends if you think Yaya can make more than the -4 in the Watford match. But you have Aguero anyway so you have the main man in that one I think.
GP
Thing is I am looking at C since I feel Mahrez and Yaya would end up in my WC team (both on form and fixtures) and taking a hit now to get them in before their prices get even higher is fine (it is extremely rare I take a 4PH)
Not settled on Costa or Beneteke, they would have been more for a 1 game punt.
From what Ive seen Yaya is going forward nicely and is involved a lot. and City are looking very dangerous…
I agree with GP, i wouldn’t want to hit a week before a WC. Rooney to Benteke looks a good 1 week punt given the fixtures and then use your WC
Photek
I understand, but the 4PH if I take C (which Im leaning towards) is more also to help with the price rises.
Last season I took 2 the entire season I think, so not a train smash.
fair enough mate, if you’re happy to do it and then go for it.
Cheers Photek
Dont know what to do this wk…all my def look like thy could keep a clean sheet targett (h) Nor kpany (h) Wat gomes (h)W’ham richards (h) Sun darmian (a) swa . Should I play 5-4-1 agureo up front or play 4-4-2 agureo & gomis.. if 4-4-2 which def would I sub
newo
Please put up your whole squad to make a better assessment.
Hi all again, this week in my head to head league, the person who I am playing this week would like me to take a -8 hit so he can
do you think I can do any trades for who
thank you in advance
I feel O’shea’s not a great pick.
Mings having yet to play a minute is worrying.
And milner could be upgraded as, despite his gd preseason, he aint done much.
Rest looks ok
Just my thoughts
thanks mate, do u have any idea on who I should get.
thinking of going Mlings and Milner out but really stuck on who to get in.
any ideas?
I’d reckon;
Milner –> Mahrez
O’Shea / Mings to Kolorov
(Think the money works)
like I just said below, Having to Leicester playing in the mid I find is a risk
stewy
So that it is a fair match he wants you to take a -8 with him? Are you happy to do that? Are you not bothered by your overall ranking?
If not then Hazard out for Silva and Milner out for Mahrez?
well Gallant, if i can do these trades this week, i can save trade next week
down grading haz to Silva is great but I all ready have Albrighton in my mid and that might be a risk
Stewy
Milner to Ayew would be a good move I think.
thanks GP, final trades thougts
Silva for Haz Ayew and Miler
So tempted to WC. This is what I came up with.
Ideas?
Remove Cedric
Remove Coutinho
Get Kolorov
Get Shaqiri
My input.
Thanks Fudgy
Yea Cedric hasn’t lived up to expectations. Koloroz would be a great pick, but no funds to do it.
Hmmm, I feel Coutinho could have a blinding season after seeing him play the last 3. He could become Liverpool’s main man.
What are your thoughts on Benteke? Missing that goal last night has given me doubts.
YNWA
Removing Coutinho as well as Cedric frees up funds for Kolorov.
My opinion on Coutinho is that’s hes a great player but dont let your bias blind you, he isn’t a notorious fantasy point scorer because hes the man to be the catalyst to instigate that Firmino or Milner pass to Benteke.
Benteke is a safe shout uptop and you can’t really go wrong with him, he’s guaranteed some goals and that’s it really, but will he be a top scorer? I don’t think so, I’d look to downgrade Ozil also and get the funds for Costa. To have Costa and Aguero in your attack with Pedro in the midfield would be deadly.
ohyesali
If I were on a WC, I’d be getting some Swansea coverage in and I agree with Badger – Kolarov looks too good to miss as well.
I’d lose Ozil before Coutinho – who was razor sharp last night. Good passing and movement and actually hit the post and crossbar. Only a matter of time before he is laying them up for Benteke I think and he will also score a few himself I’m sure. decent value at £8.1M.
You might have a problem on which attacker to leave out each week as well.
Thanks GP
Yea Coutinho has looked good and think he’ll be a good pick.
Ozil is a deffo choice to move out, but to who?
Other choice is don’t pull the WC trigger and keep current team below (Perhaps Hazard –. Silva)
What du think?
ohyesali
I’m trying to hold the WC until next week. The transfer window will be closed and you’ll have the full pool of players to select from. I think you are OK for one more week with the above.
Yea that’s my thoughts.
Haz –> Silva?
Think its gotta be done. Bank the change and if he starts firing, bring him in again.
Thoughts?
ohyesali
I let Hazard go last week and I’m bringing in Silva this week so yeah I like it.