A Look at the Transfer Market Game-week 21
What does FF247 do when they have too many days between game-weeks? Well, they trot me out, usually it is with a Grab, Avoid or Bore off, but seeing as there was one last week, we decided to take a different road. Has Mito gone serious? Hell no! Just a one time thing, I hope. So the next time you see me, I will be back asking the uncomfortable questions of them Three Amigos. So just bare with me on this article, pretend you liked it and I will pretend I liked writing it. Well let’s get to it and give me your honest opinion, unless it is negative, in that case just lie.
Goalkeepers
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Not Buying Butland: Knowing when to sell, is just as important as knowing when to buy in. Many of us keep a player past his expiration date. Obviously I like his next fixture, after that it looks like a horror show. As they face Arsenal, Leicester, United and Everton in 4 consecutive weeks. I know that Leicester is in a bit of a funk and United has not been smashing it, but I would still not feel good about these fixtures, particularly because both are away.
Waiting/Holding on Cech: Hard to criticize buying the AFC keeper. So I would say not yet if you don’t have him and just see through the interesting next couple of fixtures if possible, if you own him. Playing Liverpool away, followed by Stoke away and Chelsea at home are not exactly ideal conditions. I know what you are thinking, why be scared of LFC and Stoke, possibly even CFC. Liverpool for all their struggles have only been blanked at home once this season, so buyer beware. Stoke are not exactly a great attacking side, but legend has it they are a mare at home. *Quickly checks schedule* To discover why not fantastic at home this season, they did manage to draw to Leicester and beat City, United and Chelsea, so buyer beware. Chelsea has been terrible 90% of the season, problem is that the other 10% has been lately. But even at their worse this season, they still managed to beat Arsenal 2-0.
Buying LLoris: I have forever critiqued Spurs for their lack of, how do I put this? Guevos! Which is just another way of saying that they lack some toughness in big moments be it an individual game against a beatable team or a game versus any top rival in general. Hard to argue that this season though. They have lost only one game after a GW1 gift to Rooney and United. They are grinding out results and even if clean sheets have not come in abundance, if they are going to come, the next stretch of games might be it. Facing a weakened Leicester side this upcoming GW, they then have the fortune of facing Sunderland, Palace, Norwich and Watford in the next four. If clean sheets are consistently possible for them, this could be it.
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Defenders
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Not Buying Sagna: Everyone is buying, what am I doing selling? Well, Zabaleta is now fit finally and with Sagna playing every game except one, I do think rotation is probably in order. Many would argue that Pablo is a better player and that it is only a matter of time before he takes the job anyway, making him more than just a rotation threat. I do love City’s upcoming fixtures; I just don’t like the idea of investing in a 5.5 defender who may lose his spot or might be likely to at the very least get rotated. Yes, I am aware that Bacary has been playing at a high level, but remember that Pellegrini is a Zaba guy, as he was a Demi guy, when many thought Demichellis should not be playing in the past. I warned that Demi had an advantage because of his past with the manager and while Zabaleta didn’t play for the Engineer in the past, he did come from the same club where the City manager had his record breaking season in Argentina. Pelligrini would have known a very young Zabaleta a year or two away from breaking into the first team. If you have Sagna, you could take the wait and see approach and see what comes about the RB spot.
Waiting/Holding on Dann: Being brought in by over 20K and sold by over 10K, he almost seems like the perfect candidate for this category. My inclination would be that if you have him, you keep him and just bench him for the tougher fixtures as the surrounding fixtures are very juicy and hopefully very forthcoming of points for Palace defenders. However, because some of the tougher ones are right after they play Villa, I would think holding off on buying him is actually a sound strategy for now, at least until he gets by City and Spurs. Another thought is, if you don’t own Dann, buying Ward or Souare down the line is a wiser investment because of the money saved. In particular if you already have plans on grabbing Sanchez, Kun, etc..
Buying Cresswell: Am I really buying him or am I saying that he could be a decent punt? Kinda saying both things, that is one of covering your arse. To be honest if he was a bit cheaper he would have attracted a lot more attention and having said that, at the time of writing he was the 2nd most transferred in. The price tag makes him a punt, his last couple of games and the upcoming fixtures make him a buy. Besides City in GW23, there is a lot of possible good outcomes for The Hammers there. Assuming that West Ham will be going forward in a lot of these games, makes me think that Aaron has good potential for more assists or perhaps even another goal. He got a set piece attempt last game and was seen getting plenty of crosses in. If Carroll can stay healthy (big if) his best buddy could become Cresswell and those crosses searching that big melon head of his.
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Midfielders
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Not buying Willian: With so many managers happy buying up Willian at the current moment, I am sure this one will not go over well. Hear me out though before you burn me at the stake. Willian has participated in 19 EPL games this season, in 10 of them he scored 2 points or less. In the rest (the other 9) he averaged less than 7 PPG. Close to seven is not bad, but it is not great when someone is ruling someone’s ten worse games. For instance, if we ruled out Payet’s six worse games and only counted his other seven of the 13 he has played, he would average 8.7 PPG. If I did it for Alli and wiped out his 10 worse games and only averaged the rest, he would stand at 8.5 PPG. We could do the same for Arnautovic, Ozil, KDB, Mahrez and on and on. In several cases like Ozil and Mahrez they would still average more even when all the low scoring games are included. So what does this prove? In my eyes, it’s that he is not explosive nor terribly consistent. Only 2 double figure games all season is further proof. I know he is in ‘form’ but check the last time he was, GW7-9. Then check what he did the next seven weeks, you guessed it, nothing. His lack of shot taking is a concern and a dependence on free kicks to get FPL points is never a good idea. Having someone take pens or set pieces should be the cream on top to how a FPL player gathers points, not the main reason.
Waiting/Holding KdB: Why are you selling?! At least wait out the home fixtures and the Sunderland game on the horizon. Our boy has started 7 games at home and just barely missed out on averaging double figures. His next two are at home and at the very least you could give him the courtesy of seeing out his stint until then. Sell if you must, but seller beware of the possible danger it poses. City are a different animal at home and KdB has had some monster games at the Etihad, even if no one was there to watch him do it. So I would at least hold onto him for now, if you don’t have him, I would consider buying him but the price tag and the need for a certain Chilean or the need of money to buy Kun could provide a reason to wait. It is your choice, but I am not going to be a victim of Chucky.
Buying Payet: Yep, it is a bit early, but if you wait to buy everyone, then you will never see the benefit. The problem with waiting too long on buying someone is that by the time you get them, just about everyone will already own him. Therefore, negating any real gain by owning him. Seeing that most of us are on a template and whoever is not, quickly adjusts to be on it, if one wants to gain any advantage of having someone they must go a bit early if possible. Could it be too early and come back to haunt you? Sure, but if you only care about staying with the crowd then just make sure you stay on the highest owned players and you will be fine. Moving a little bit up and dropping a little and repeating the cycle week after week. We all know of Payet’s prowess and also know that he will quickly be snapped up the first moment he does anything of consequence. So we got about two game-weeks after his first good performance for the bandwagon to overtake the feeling of having at least a slight differential.
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Forwards
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Not Buying Costa: Originally I thought I would place Martial here, would be easy to make an argument on that one. For some reason over 20K have bought him up. However, I decided to go with one I know will be controversial, but also one that I do feel doesn’t merit his price or possibly buying. Frankly if he was 8-9 million I probably would consider him a lot more. Part of my problem with him stems from a problem he had last season, that I think still exists, bonus points. He seems to require fantastic outings to garner any at all, and sometimes even then he is passed over or only given one. He had two games with a goal and an assist and still only received one bonus point. Only games he got the three bonus was when he was involved in all the goals be it through goals or assists and only when there was more than one. History tells us that when he scores one goal he is all but ignored. Last season he scored one goal and had no assists on eleven occasions, he got a grand total of 4 bonus points for it and he probably only got those because Chelsea conceded in said games, so their defenders were out of contention. So unless he starts coming up with more than six points consistently, I would probably ignore him for now.
Waiting/Holding Lukaku: The third most transferred out forward this week so far. What does a man have to do to earn your loyalty? What a fickle bunch you truly are. I hope you bristled when he scored again in the cup against Man City. A look at the fixtures probably leads one to think that this is the main reason, I will admit City and CFC away are not the most appealing opponents. But this is the new Lukaku, isn’t it? In his last 14 he has racked up 13 goals and 4 assists along with 19 bonus points. Besides, this Everton team can score on anyone and that is a good thing, because they can’t stop anyone from scoring on them. However, if you don’t own him, you might be able to get away with it in these two upcoming GW’s and possibly play others with better fixtures. Plainly said I wouldn’t sell if I had him, the loss of value and his consistent nature make it too hard, but if I didn’t have him, I probably risk it for the next two games and hope for the best.
Buying Aguero: Well, he is Aguero, need I say more? Kun plays his next two at home against a defensively challenged Everton and a Palace side that just allowed CFC to score 3 on them. So with City having 4 of their next 6 at home, I would be armed with the Argentinian. We all know that many are making plans to bring him in and scoring in his last game will certainly help that along. Now that he is getting 90 minutes, this bandwagon will gain major steam, as frankly we are all just a touch scared of the damage he can do when he is ticking. We all look at his season and feel disappointed to a degree, but is there a more explosive force in FPL? Many a FPL season was lost on that 5 goal game against Newcastle. If you didn’t captain him or worse didn’t have him, you felt like just deleting your team and taking up knitting. Take a chance and don’t buy him if you wish, but one good week from Kun could undo weeks of pulling back your rank to respectable and send you plummeting to where the FF247 site team lays.
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Shite article, what a doofus.
Cheers mate 😉
That’s what I was going for, they told me to make it like Nin’s articles. 😉
Shite job then, mine are way shittier :big-lol:
Thanks Mito, really enjoyed this and appreciate your unique thoughts on the players mentioned. I kind of agree with you on Costa, though with the pressure of needing to make up some ground on ….well pretty much everyone, the differential tag is huge, but as you say, he has never really hurt non-owners bar on only a couple of occasions.
Morning everyone else!
Morning Cookie, how’s that WC coming along?
Hi there NIN – struggling a bit to be honest – it’s all kicking off at work so not really looking much at the mo, but my biggest problem is whether to go Costa or Igloo.
I completely get your argument on Costa, but I do agree with what Mito has written in that he is not a player that hurts non-owners and Igloo’s fixtures are ok, his form is as good as anyone’s and the price is clearly top notch. I actually think he’s a decent player, whereas I find Vardy very one-dimensional and by now defences should have worked out how to play him.
Also with Costa, he has others around him scoring – Willian, Oscar, Hazard (well, maybe!), Pedro and even Ivanovic and Terry score the odd one whereas when Watford score Igloo is generally involved.
I do like Costa for the next two – but then setting up with Kun, Costa, Kane, KDB and a decent defence is pretty tough – which makes playing Costa for the next two and then getting Igloo nigh on impossible without selling players to then buy them back – which kind of defeats the object of the wildcard.
What makes it tricky is that Chelsea are THE play for differentials as almost everyone has got rid of their players and invested elsewhere due to their terrible first half of the season. It’s tricky to find the value in Chelsea if I’m honest –
Willian ? nah not for me
Oscar? potentially as a punt, but tradition says he is not consistent, maybe he flourishes under Hiddink and a proper run in the side.
Costa? – he’s clearly not a value play, more a differential play.
As you can see, I’m struggling a bit and it’s not like they have a brilliant run of fixtures that makes them more backable.
Morning Cookie,
Doesn’t sound like you’re struggling to be honest – sounds like you’ve made your mind up! Haha
I’m bringing in Ighalo over Costa. Main reason is that no one is worth £5m more than him on current form. If I was taking a punt it would be over Kane or Aguero to be honest, the money you have spare from him will go a long way…
I can remember many GW’s last season where not having Costa was a complete disaster. It’s worth noting that Jose clammed Chelsea up in the 2nd half of last season and also Costa’s hammy was a disaster. When Chelsea were playing proper attacking stuff he was banging them in all over the place (didn’t he score 10 in the first 6 games or some shit?). Still, it’s a pretty sizable gamble as you say, what with this seasons form and the huge price tag.
I fully agree on Willian and Oscar. I’ll never buy Oscar in FPL. He’s a wonderful player but goes off the boil way too easily and stays off for way, way too long. Willian is a delight and one i would love to have at United just now but i don’t like him for FPL either.
Is that your last major decision to make? I just don’t want high owned players at all mate but am aware that some are must-have’s like Kane / Ozil. I’d rather not have Ozil now for my plan but nobody is keeping up with him now that he’s back on the form he was when on at Madrid.
AT – Cookie’s mind is far from made up! Value pick vs Differential can be an extremely hard decision to make, especially this season when ranks are horrific.
NIN, I don’t think it is as straight forward as being a value pick v a differential for you could have almost two of Ighalo for the price of Costa. Ighalo looks like a real striker; he’s a handful for defenders and his fixtures are pretty good for the next three. If COsta were around the same price as Ighalo then I would suggest that his decision is harder for it is a pure form v differential pick but the value added into the form is, in my opinion, too much of a risk to exclude.
AT – I am trying to find a reason to justify the cost of Costa over Ighalo – currently the only ones I can come up with, which are pretty flimsy to me, are that:
Chelsea have turned a corner under Hiddink
They have West Brom & Everton at home
Costa is a differential (6.2% ownership) vs the likes of Kane, Lukaku, Ighalo etc.
We are of course assuming that Ighalo continues his rate of scoring, which is of course not guaranteed.
NIN – yeah it’s my only real major decision – as you know yourself, 4.5mln goes a long way elsewhere, probably in defence to be honest as I’m happy to run with Payet, Alli, Ozil, KDB in midfield for now.
Changing KDB to Yaya is a possibility to accommodate Costa, but KDB’s home stats are explosive – four homes games in six makes me want to keep him for that run.
The good thing is I’ll still be unable to decide by Tuesday afternoon hahaha.
Haha, exactly! Ighalo is almost half the price, so he’s a value pick. Costa is worth a fortune but hasn’t shown his best form yet this season, although, does look a lot better recently. It all comes down to Hiddink i suppose. If he can get Chelsea going in an attacking manner and restore confidence then Costa will blast Ighalo out of the water. At 6% ownership, or there about’s, Costa really could make the difference for teams who are chasing whereas Ighalo is massively owned so wont really do much for low ranked teams unless capo’d all the time.
Still, as Cookie has said, there is no right answer until the moves are made and we see who scores what. I’m going for the low owned premium in an effort to get moving in the ranks. No appearance in the top 100k, even for a day, so far is really disgraceful. I just don’t see what Ighalo can do for my team other than match all the teams ahead of me in one position. I need to be up in as many positions as possible to reach top 10k.
Cookie, I totally get the differential thing and, of course, if you aren’t in a strong position in terms of rank then I am certainly not suggesting that you pick the standard team. My argument is that if your differentials are considerably more expensive than the high ownership players then you have to factor in the extra money too.
How insane is somebody if they got rid of Lukaku at the moment? Having Lukaku/Kane and Aguero kind of forces you into the template it feels like…
NIN – again I completely get that. But my point is that 30% of active teams own him vs your Costa then they are playing with an extra 5mln in their squads – so surely there is a case of getting rid of Kane rather than Ighalo, in that the cash difference is severely reduced?
Aussie, I wouldn’t say it was insane. If you’re down the ranks, following the template will get you nowhere. If you look at Lukaku’s record this season he has blanked against United, Chelsea, Arsenal, City and Spurs (2), so if we were to believe statistics it may be a masterstroke.
Aussie – I am one of those who have sold Lukaku. It’s time to mix it up, or maybe i’m just pissed off and want to
Cookie – I suppose it depends what is done with that money and also capo potential for Costa if he keeps improving, along with Chelsea. What do you make of this team mate (and everyone else of course), i haven’t changed it in a while and am pretty happy with it. Backup defenders are a bit stinky but the fixtures work out well with Ward and allow more beef up top and in midfield….
@Aussie, just because someone is resistant to the move, doesn’t mean you are not right to make the move. You could be completely wrong in terms of fpl points about selling Lukaku, but still be right about selling him in terms of strategy. What I mean is that if you aspire to outscore people you can’t be the same and you will need to risk it somewhere, be it through differentials or captain choices. Many times our reasons for doing a move are right, even if they don’t work out.
NIN, I like the team, it’s not a long way from mine – currently I still have Lukaku in there for your Costa and KDB where you have Ozil. The keepers and defence are pretty much the same in terms of teams covered, just different personnel. If Yaya can continue his league form then you will be laughing – the good thing of course with going strong up front is that there is always an easy downgrade to make if one of them is not performing.
Yeah that’s the idea mate, drop one to a mid if needs be but i’m hoping that the strikers all go off on one. Only way to get all three is a WC i think, or leave a midfield in tatters.
Sorry NIN, I meant I have KDB for you Yaya, not Ozil.
I feel I’m missing one X-factor that will force my decision on the 3rd striker – maybe doubling up on defence somewhere (but the obvious names, Arsenal, Chelsea don’t appeal on fixtures while United don’t have any fit defenders
)
Cookie, if i was to double up defensively on any team just now it would be WHU. I did have Cressy in there for a time but switched out to Azpi.
AT – I’m top 25k currently and not in a league that I have any great desire to ‘win’ or anything, I mostly just want to try and push for a sub 10k rank this season. So I suppose I am chasing in a sense?
Mito21 – Yeah I get what you mean, I do try and do that naturally, I’m just really torn on Lukaku as an individual, I have a lot of faith in him as a player, just none in Everton as a whole. Ighalo is just so appealing because of his price and the ability to spread funds more in other areas. When you have a front 3 of Lukaku/Aguero and Kane….the team almost picks itself.
Tough decision!
Cookie, as you know there’s only ever one solution I turn to in times of crisis… Puncheon!!! Go on you know you want to
And there Init, is the X-factor I’ve been looking for – thanks mate, for all your help
Anytime 😉
Ladies and gents, I give up.
This has to be the worst season EVER. Even the season in which I got married and hardly updated my was more fruitful.
I think the problem lies in team value and template teams. Contributing to this is how unpredictable the league is at the moment.
At the rate I am going, I think I would do well to finish in the top 500k.
Kind of like Chelsea’s final position ambitions.
Unpredictable season and template players, yes. Team value not so much, for me. Keep plugging away, Hoof. Come season end we’ll be in much better positions. Of that i am sure :thumbup:
Much thanks, mate.
The answer is hidden in your post. You need to marry again.
Any advice?
Morning Charl,
I would look at improving the defence there, hopefully getting rid of Taylor, but depends on what funds you have. There are bargains to be had at 4.1mln (Rangel prob the best) but as I say, depends what’s in the bank.
Thanks Cookie, funds at a bare minimum with 0.1 in the bank but i will look in next GW. When would be a good time to use wildcard?
Thanks for the feedback fellas, hope this helps a little or confuses the situation more, the latter being my preference. 😉
i really enjoyed this Mito (and not just pretending it 😛 ). well done mate, reasonable arguments
Great article Mito,think you’ve got it right about most of the players you’ve mentioned and spot on about Costa ! I’ve been wrestling with the idea of whether to bring him or Aguero in and can’t make my mind up.Chelsea are starting to look a different team now and Costa looks like the player of old.Yes City have some nice fixtures coming up but I’m still not sure about his or City’s form.Saying that it’s the fear of what he can do once,if,he clicks into gear !! Cheers !