Captain Picks Gameweek 15

Our GW15 Captain’s article focuses on three players, who all showed in midweek  just how valuable they are, not only to their clubs but also to us fantasy managers. Those players are: Luis Suarez, Sergio Aguero and Eden Hazard. Each week we look at our captaincy suggestions using recent form, forthcoming fixtures and back up our thoughts by using a new in-play performance index called Kickdex. (more info on Kickdex is at the end of this article).

Luis Suarez (Liverpool)

As we have seen in recent weeks, Luis Suarez is at the top of his game. We are aware the Uruguayan has been in our Captain’s Poll every week thus far, however, after consistently producing outstanding performances he’s hard to overlook. Scoring FPL points in double figures 5 times since GW6 and boasting a Kickdex value of 35.55 (+6.44, +22.12%), it’s apparent that Suarez is enjoying his time in the Premier League despite the ongoing transfer rumours. Having scored 10 goals and assisted 3 in his last 6 Premier League appearances, we feel there’s no reason his performances and recent form will not continue.

Having considered Suarez’s performance as an individual, it is also reasonable to look at how Liverpool 238.08 (+12.78, +5.67%) have performed recently. It can be seen from the below analysis that Liverpool are playing at a considerably higher Kickdex value than their opposition. West Ham have not won away in the league at Anfield since 1963, losing 29 and drawing 11 of their subsequent 40 trips since. Another significant factor in favor of Suarez is that he has scored one more Barclays Premier League goals than West Ham have as a team  this season. Subsequently, 10 of Luis Suarez’s 13 Premier League goals this season have come at Anfield.

Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)

Similar to Suarez’s recent goal-scoring record, Sergio Aguero has not been shy of finding the back of the net. Aguero has scored 10 goals in his last 9 Premier League appearances for Manchester City, as well as providing 6 assists. Seemingly vital in the performances of Manchester City, Aguero has only been unable to get involved in any of Manchester City’s goals 4 times in the 13 times he has appeared, whilst hitting double figures (FPL points) 5 times. A Kickdex value of 26.95 (+0.67, 2.55%) may seem a way off that of Suarez, but worth note is that Aguero has played 311 minutes over the past 4 game-weeks as opposed to Suarez’s 375, valuable time for the Argentinian to be involved in attacks.

Undoubtedly City’s away form has not been the best this season and they will be looking to win consecutive Barclays Premier League away games for the first time since January. It is important to note, however, that although Southampton enter this fixture on the back of a 2-3 loss to Aston Villa, Southampton conceded more goals in midweek versus Villa than they had in all 6 previous home league games this season combined. City showed in midweek that they are capable of turning it on away from the Etihad and with a Kickdex value of 230.05 -0.31 (-0.13%) they are performing consistently well of late – had we seen this fixture 4 game-weeks ago the prediction could have been a lot harder to evaluate, but with 1^st choice keeper Artur Boruc injured and 2^nd choice Kelvin Davis unlikely to be available, it could well be another fruitful day for City and Aguero.

Eden Hazard (Chelsea)

For the first time we are going to include a Chelsea player in our Captain’s Picks, and a midfielder at that. It was always the case for Eden Hazard of when, and not if, he returns to the form he has previously shown. As some of you may, or may not have noticed on the boards, I have shown how Hazard generally doesn’t play well if Oscar is on the pitch. This article is not going to look at why this is the case, but with a current Kickdex value of 23.36 (+3.93, +20.23%) I’m going to take all the credit I can get for this vague assumption! Scoring double digit FPL points 3 times in the past 4 game-weeks is a good sign that Hazard is performing well, scoring 3 and assisting 4 times in this period.

Chelsea have a good history against the Potters, having won 10 and lost none of the last 12 meetings in all competitions. Chelsea also inflicted Stoke’s heaviest ever Premier League defeat – 7-0 in April 2010, whilst the Blues also inflicted Mark Hughes’ biggest defeat as a coach, with a 6-1 result when he was at QPR in April 2012. Chelsea will attempt to score 3+ goals in 3 successive Premier League away games for the first time since August 2009 and only the third time in the competition. With an increasing Kickdex value over recent weeks that currently stands at 196.69 (-0.56, -0.28%), Chelsea will look to achieve the aforementioned and look to close a gap on league leader’s Arsenal.

Summary

All 3 of our choices look to be hitting great form and are worthy choices of the captain’s armband. Given, the on-going debate on Manchester City’s away form is hard to ignore, especially against a defensively sound Southampton who had conceded just 2 goals at home prior to the GW13 fixtures. Similarly, the form of Luis Suarez can be erratic to say the least, as highlighted in the Kickdex performance index chart above. Many will hope that the Uruguayan will again hit double figures and not a blank as he did in a favourable fixture against Hull. Despite the criticism Hazard attracted early on in the season, he could well be a must have midfielder if his current form continues, and it will be interesting to see how Chelsea carry on performing given their striker situation at the moment.

Quick stats (Past 4 game-weeks)

During the last 4 game-weeks, Suarez and Hazard have created double the amount of chances to that of Aguero.

However, Aguero and Suarez have double the amount of goal attempts to that of Hazard.

Despite this, Suarez has been involved in roughly 60% of Liverpool’s goals, better than Aguero and Hazard, involved in 30% and 40% respectively.

Aguero has had 10 of his shots on target, Suarez has 50% more whereas Hazard has 50% less.

Hazard has completed 50% more passes in the final third than Aguero and Suarez, however, Suarez and Hazard are generally equal in chances created where Aguero falls short at 50% less.

Worthy mentions that should be considered although not included in this article are; Loic Remy, Romelu Lukaku, Aaron Ramsey, Yaya Toure, Mesut Ozil, Steven Gerrard, and Jay Rodriguez.

Following our analysis of our 3 Captain’s Picks for GW15, we would love to hear your views below on which player you are going for and why. Will it be any of our 3 or someone different? Don’t forget to cast your vote on our Captain’s Poll below.

Good luck to you all this game-week,

This article was written by flingy (Sean).

Kickdex

Every player has a single Kickdex value that updates every time anything happens on the field of play. This number represents the player’s contribution to their team. E.g. Suarez 32.2 (-2.34%). The second number shows the percentage difference since their last match.

Kickdex is at the cutting edge of sports analytics. Kickdex uses a complex algorithm using number of advanced mathematical theories. This algorithm is perfect for analyzing team and player form, Kickdex adjusts for the relative strength of fixtures to remove the misconstrued view that form and performances aren’t always directly related to a team’s results and league position. A team or player may perform superbly, but unjustly lose because of a lucky deflection or outside influence.

If you wish to have a closer look at how Kickdex works, or have a look at the Kickdex web application yourself, head on over to:

www.kickdex.com

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