Our GW15 Captain’s article focuses on three players, who all showed in midweek just how valuable they are, not only to their clubs but also to us fantasy managers. Those players are: Luis Suarez, Sergio Aguero and Eden Hazard. Each week we look at our captaincy suggestions using recent form, forthcoming fixtures and back up our thoughts by using a new in-play performance index called Kickdex. (more info on Kickdex is at the end of this article).
Luis Suarez (Liverpool)
As we have seen in recent weeks, Luis Suarez is at the top of his game. We are aware the Uruguayan has been in our Captain’s Poll every week thus far, however, after consistently producing outstanding performances he’s hard to overlook. Scoring FPL points in double figures 5 times since GW6 and boasting a Kickdex value of 35.55 (+6.44, +22.12%), it’s apparent that Suarez is enjoying his time in the Premier League despite the ongoing transfer rumours. Having scored 10 goals and assisted 3 in his last 6 Premier League appearances, we feel there’s no reason his performances and recent form will not continue.
Having considered Suarez’s performance as an individual, it is also reasonable to look at how Liverpool 238.08 (+12.78, +5.67%) have performed recently. It can be seen from the below analysis that Liverpool are playing at a considerably higher Kickdex value than their opposition. West Ham have not won away in the league at Anfield since 1963, losing 29 and drawing 11 of their subsequent 40 trips since. Another significant factor in favor of Suarez is that he has scored one more Barclays Premier League goals than West Ham have as a team this season. Subsequently, 10 of Luis Suarez’s 13 Premier League goals this season have come at Anfield.
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Similar to Suarez’s recent goal-scoring record, Sergio Aguero has not been shy of finding the back of the net. Aguero has scored 10 goals in his last 9 Premier League appearances for Manchester City, as well as providing 6 assists. Seemingly vital in the performances of Manchester City, Aguero has only been unable to get involved in any of Manchester City’s goals 4 times in the 13 times he has appeared, whilst hitting double figures (FPL points) 5 times. A Kickdex value of 26.95 (+0.67, 2.55%) may seem a way off that of Suarez, but worth note is that Aguero has played 311 minutes over the past 4 game-weeks as opposed to Suarez’s 375, valuable time for the Argentinian to be involved in attacks.
Undoubtedly City’s away form has not been the best this season and they will be looking to win consecutive Barclays Premier League away games for the first time since January. It is important to note, however, that although Southampton enter this fixture on the back of a 2-3 loss to Aston Villa, Southampton conceded more goals in midweek versus Villa than they had in all 6 previous home league games this season combined. City showed in midweek that they are capable of turning it on away from the Etihad and with a Kickdex value of 230.05 -0.31 (-0.13%) they are performing consistently well of late – had we seen this fixture 4 game-weeks ago the prediction could have been a lot harder to evaluate, but with 1st choice keeper Artur Boruc injured and 2nd choice Kelvin Davis unlikely to be available, it could well be another fruitful day for City and Aguero.
Eden Hazard (Chelsea)
For the first time we are going to include a Chelsea player in our Captain’s Picks, and a midfielder at that. It was always the case for Eden Hazard of when, and not if, he returns to the form he has previously shown. As some of you may, or may not have noticed on the boards, I have shown how Hazard generally doesn’t play well if Oscar is on the pitch. This article is not going to look at why this is the case, but with a current Kickdex value of 23.36 (+3.93, +20.23%) I’m going to take all the credit I can get for this vague assumption! Scoring double digit FPL points 3 times in the past 4 game-weeks is a good sign that Hazard is performing well, scoring 3 and assisting 4 times in this period.
Chelsea have a good history against the Potters, having won 10 and lost none of the last 12 meetings in all competitions. Chelsea also inflicted Stoke’s heaviest ever Premier League defeat – 7-0 in April 2010, whilst the Blues also inflicted Mark Hughes’ biggest defeat as a coach, with a 6-1 result when he was at QPR in April 2012. Chelsea will attempt to score 3+ goals in 3 successive Premier League away games for the first time since August 2009 and only the third time in the competition. With an increasing Kickdex value over recent weeks that currently stands at 196.69 (-0.56, -0.28%), Chelsea will look to achieve the aforementioned and look to close a gap on league leader’s Arsenal.
Summary
All 3 of our choices look to be hitting great form and are worthy choices of the captain’s armband. Given, the on-going debate on Manchester City’s away form is hard to ignore, especially against a defensively sound Southampton who had conceded just 2 goals at home prior to the GW13 fixtures. Similarly, the form of Luis Suarez can be erratic to say the least, as highlighted in the Kickdex performance index chart above. Many will hope that the Uruguayan will again hit double figures and not a blank as he did in a favourable fixture against Hull. Despite the criticism Hazard attracted early on in the season, he could well be a must have midfielder if his current form continues, and it will be interesting to see how Chelsea carry on performing given their striker situation at the moment.
Quick stats (Past 4 game-weeks)
During the last 4 game-weeks, Suarez and Hazard have created double the amount of chances to that of Aguero.
However, Aguero and Suarez have double the amount of goal attempts to that of Hazard.
Despite this, Suarez has been involved in roughly 60% of Liverpool’s goals, better than Aguero and Hazard, involved in 30% and 40% respectively.
Aguero has had 10 of his shots on target, Suarez has 50% more whereas Hazard has 50% less.
Hazard has completed 50% more passes in the final third than Aguero and Suarez, however, Suarez and Hazard are generally equal in chances created where Aguero falls short at 50% less.
Worthy mentions that should be considered although not included in this article are; Loic Remy, Romelu Lukaku, Aaron Ramsey, Yaya Toure, Mesut Ozil, Steven Gerrard, and Jay Rodriguez.
Following our analysis of our 3 Captain’s Picks for GW15, we would love to hear your views below on which player you are going for and why. Will it be any of our 3 or someone different? Don’t forget to cast your vote on our Captain’s Poll below.
Good luck to you all this game-week,
This article was written by flingy (Sean).
Kickdex
Every player has a single Kickdex value that updates every time anything happens on the field of play. This number represents the player’s contribution to their team. E.g. Suarez 32.2 (-2.34%). The second number shows the percentage difference since their last match.
Kickdex is at the cutting edge of sports analytics. Kickdex uses a complex algorithm using number of advanced mathematical theories. This algorithm is perfect for analyzing team and player form, Kickdex adjusts for the relative strength of fixtures to remove the misconstrued view that form and performances aren’t always directly related to a team’s results and league position. A team or player may perform superbly, but unjustly lose because of a lucky deflection or outside influence.
If you wish to have a closer look at how Kickdex works, or have a look at the Kickdex web application yourself, head on over to:
[polldaddy poll=7610500]
Any News on Vlaar?
If he doesn’t play shall I just let him auto sub with Coleman or use a FT
Thanks
No solid news regarding Vlaar yet.
Blooming heck, you guys don’t half abuse that kickdex rubbish don’t you
@@Bisto (see what I did there?) Hiya. What makes you think it’s rubbish? The jury’s still out as far as I’m concerned (I’m still trying to figure out how best to employ it’s data), but it seems refreshingly innovative.
Well the kickdex graphs mean nothing. A graph was posted saying liverpool are performing better than Westham. Shocker! A simple form table could have told us that. A kickdex graph was shown in the Aguero bit, yet the analysis doesn’t say anything that explains what the graph tells us, it simply says that Aguero has played less game than Suarez and that could explain how Suarez has scored more than him, but both are good options. We didn’t need kickdex to tell us that.
Then we have one for Hazard. What’s the point? We already know Hazard is in form, we all saw him score and assist on Wednesday.
These graphs might be useful in identifying who’s about to hit form, and is still under the radar, but you aren’t doing that.
Any better data analysis sources you can share?
Hi Bisto,
Kickdex provides a lot of information behind the scenes, for instance if we were to take your idea of using basic stats tables and base decisions off those, you’d automatically presume Chelsea were the second best performing team in the league at the moment (2nd position), where as if you look here: (http://kdex.co/dhx) you can see that they are in fact, at this moment, performing as the 8th most ‘in-form’ team in the league.
As I said below, every form of analysis has it’s limitations, but the reason for this article is to inform people on the performances behind the numbers you mention, help them make their own decision and not to make it for them. Last week we compared between players in the graphs, perhaps look there to see if you think that option is better used than the one above and let us know?
In regard to looking at who is under the radar, that has been brought up previously. Kickdex takes fixture difficulty in to consideration when calculating performance scores, for example if West ham defeat Crystal Palace 4-0 their performance value wouldn’t go up as much as if they defeated Arsenal 4-0. Therefore could be a good indicator of looking at who is improving consistently, and the ability level they have performed to throughout previous seasons. You could even use Kickdex to look at that yourself!
Fair enough flingy. I just thing that’s something you guys can be doing here with your articles, instead of telling us what we already know. With the captains article there is nothing wrong with not using the graphs since all the choices are pretty obvious anyway. Maybe you could do a different article utilising kickdex to identify up and comers or something.
Bisto – If you don’t like it, you know where the door is!!
Wait…. there’s a door?
😉
Yeah there really is.. I was half way out of myself on Wed night then I realised..
It’s fine. It’s a revolving door !
haha!
@Demsie
Good to see you in here mate.
Big weekend ahead of you?
:popcorn:
That, coming from one of the site admins is pretty poor. If you want your new community to be a friendly and welcoming one (what FFC used to be) that isn’t the way to do it.
You can hardly moan about it not being friendly and welcoming when you’re the one causing all the hoo-haa!
Having an opinion is causing hoohaa? Perhaps I’m in the wrong place after all.
Bisto – When you come on spouting rubbish, that’s the type of response you’re going to get.
If you had posed some logical reasoning as to why you felt it was rubbish that would have been ok, but to come on just to say something is rubbish is far from ok in my book.
Oh be quiet kop, you get narky whenever someone says something you disagree with. Maybe I should have said something more constructive to begin with, but my opinion about kickdex is a valid one.
‘Oh be quiet’…now you’re just acting like a child.
But I’ve said all I’m going to say on the matter.
See ya…
Kop opened the 7th window on his advent calendar this morning, not realising it was the 6th. He’s currently sat in the corner, rocking back and forth, convincing himself that the world is going to end.
I wouldn’t take it too seriously, he’s may just be having a bad day. :cuckoo:
Bisto – I’m unsure if you’ve a problem with us in general, or the fact that you think Kickdex is useless and we could use a better form of statistics to look at player performance. If you’re struggling to interpret the data then how would you suggest we improve? I personally think Kickdex is great, it takes into account fixture difficulty when working out a players contribution to a game, something that pure numbers do not. Every form of analysis has it’s own limitations, but as long as people are aware of those when using the article above there shouldn’t be any problem. It’s meant to be informative as opposed to giving definitive choices on who to captain, and do so as simple as possible. Using Kickdex performance charts is a much easier way to portray player form than looking at raw numerical data, something that was taken in to consideration when starting this article.
Like I said, if you’ve got any ideas or criticisms that can help us improve then feel free to reply here, or send an email to: contact@fantasyfootball247.co.uk
Anybody else with any suggestions also get in touch, you’re the heart of the site so it’s you we’re looking to please!
See my above post flingy. I haven’t a problem with you, I don’t know why you would say that, I was on FFC, and chose to come here as well. I like the banter and any FPL tips I can get!
Hey guys!
I got a nice reply from the Untouchables (who was suggesting I take out R.Morrison) on the previous page, but I’m still not convinced about what to do, or my captain choice. My team is:
Mignolet (Vorm)
Gabbidon Dawson Zabaleta (Coleman) (Lovren)
Oscar Brady Ozil Ramsey (R.Morrison)
Lukaku Suarez Aguero
I have 0.2 in the bank, and I have 2 FT so if I don’t use one it’ll go to waste.
Thanks :bounce:
Suarez again for me….Veer
I never like captaining a player twice in two GWs, but I guess he has a home game and kun doesn’t…
Yeah I know what you mean – all that stats point to Suarez but something in my gut says he might have a quiet game. Problem is with Rooney out and Aguero away I have no obvious alternative.
Man U v Newcastle has been a right old goal fest at times in the past so maybe Remy for a cheeky punt…? Problem is he doesn’t get assists and bps
Err except of course you don’t had Remy! Doh
Have a look at my history Veer i have captained Suarez on 2 occassions 3 weeks in a row and received 20+ each time…
Thanks, I’ll captain Suarez. What about my transfer? Sell R.Morrison?
just want to clarify before i seal the deal with my blood..lol
when it say suspended until December 14 does this means he get to play gameweek 16 v SUN or does he miss it?
The Untouchables, it means he plays GW 16
Guys will Oscar play this weekend ?
I dont think we have the news yet. Waiting for Chelsea press conference.
Guys you think Ramsey will get offers from European Giants in the transfer market?
Wenger already put a 50 million price tag on him…preparing for January bids?? I doubt it!
Man U could use him…
Don’t think Wenger will let players go so easily this season Arsenal have been in this position a few times and we may just actually have a shot at it finally…..Was hoping to steal Suarez not a chance in hell now as Liverpool are contenders for CL!!!Crap
It’s already been articulated quite well by someone here already. But I just wanted to pay my respects. It’s a massive loss and I just hope that you’ve learned your lesson and captain Suarez this time around.
Oh, and RIP Nelson Mandela.
Haha Bryan.. I was one of said people.
I advocated the cap of Suarez to work collegues, then didn’t do it myself ! To say gutted was an understatement. Lost massive ground in my league (now 100 points) and, like a spoilt 6 year old girl, was close to deleting my account !
Crikey man, my team won 5-1 and I felt like we’d lost in the CL final ! FPL sucks sometimes..
I made a transfer in anger on Wed night, I was past caring on Thur morning.. Now I’ve bought myself to logging back on here..
I realise I sound like a recovering addict..
Demsie, I think everyone on here can relate to what you’ve just said. We’ve all had moments where it just seems easier to throw the towel in. However, as soon as the next GW comes around, all the arrows turn to grey and it’s like a fresh start. I’m quite fortunate that both the teams ahead of me in my private mini-league are Everton fans. They didn’t captain Suarez (out of principal, I’m guessing!).
You’ve made it through the difficult part mate. Just see through the next 24 hours cold turkey and you’ll feel like a new man.
Yeah man, i’m through the worst of it. I’ve even managed to log on to my account to view the ‘damage’ just now.
Just looked at my team and I have 3 definite out and one doubtful.. So the good news there is my team picks itself ! Now.. Do I cap Suarez this time ? ? haha 😉
Demsie get into Pathetico’s league, who I believe also missed out on the Suarez captaincy. A fresh start league, where only points count from GW 15 on. I believe almost the whole FF247 team entered it. 57040-668957 , about 70 people are in already and many are teams you would recognize.
Missed out !!!!!!!!!!!
There’s a lot of Kirks in that league! I shall spare you a lame ‘captain’ joke. Although I acknowledge that even mentioning that I’m sparing you it, isn’t really sparing you.
lost me mate????
@Untouchables. Star Trek innit.
Cheers Mito.. Reg’d, done, dusted. You’re right there’s a few in there I know.
Maybe I’m gonna need one of these every couple of weeks ! :big-lol:
Demsie, I got the grand total of 26pts! If that makes you feel any better 😉
Lol sz, and i thought i was having a horrible season,,hellow mate how r u