Community Musings – A Horse and a Tiger!
The 2016/17 pre-season will go down as the summer of musings. We had Cookie musing on the FPL release day over a plate of sardines, we had Mito musing over a plate of sardines and salmons, trying his best to distinguish between the two, we had GP musing over an entire shoal. The whole thing was beginning to feel a bit fishy. We aren’t quite sure why so many FPL’ers gravitate towards animals to complete their identity but a simple twitter search on the phenomenon reveals all manner from the FPLTortoise straight through to the FPLGreyhound. What we needed for some clarity were some horses and some tigers…. shazan, we got 2 e-mails, one from a horse and one from a tiger! Both offering up some musings on how they usually approach FPL and how they will be doing so this season. And just a bit of general natter in between about themselves, which is exactly what we like!
We get approached almost daily with people offering up FPL articles that they’d like posted but in all honesty our answer is usually ‘do you use the site, will people recognise you?’. We’re nothing if we’re not a community site so when the community ask it’s almost always a yes. And so witout further ado, over to the lads…
Horse
I am just starting my 6th season of FPL! I can’t believe where the time has gone. The first season I didn’t have a clue what I was doing. I kept captaining Kompany as he was a good captain at his club! In January of that year, sat with an overall rank of 2m, I had the good fortune to encounter Fantasy Football Cheat with their great weekly articles and a very helpful and active community chat. With that help I made it to round 6 of the FPL cup and finished at a relatively respectable 627,000. At the end of that 1st season I sat down and did some thinking and wrote down a list of things to try out in the next season. I have put these guidelines into practice since and followed the site and it’s eventual transition into FF247 and since then I have finished each season in the top 30K, winning the Chedsoga league (remember that), FFC manager of the month and the Banterbury Cup along the way.
One of the turning points along my road to fantasy football addiction was watching my team Portsmouth play at home in a must win relegation battle against Burnley in the Championship during out melt down period. We were destroyed 1-5 by a Charlie Austin hat trick and in the pub afterwards we could not bear to talk about real football and instead discussed about the merits of captaining Van Persie.
Anyway, I would like to share some thoughts to help newbies and veterans alike get started in setting up their team for the upcoming season. It is not the only way to set a team up but it works for me.
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A Guide to setting up your team
Fantasy football is a simple game really. Each game week you choose a captain, stick 4 players on the bench and usually make one transfer.
So what does mean for setting up an initial team?
Captain
Personally, I like to have a good selection of potential captains. So, I set up with 4 premium players (£9m+): 2 forwards and 2 midfield. Ideally, these should rotate to give strong armband options for the first few GWs.
However, as last season showed, cheaper players such as Mahrez and Payet can be good captains too.
When possible I like to plan ahead and make sure I have a decent captain option for the next 6 GWs or so. Each GW I usually read TGP’s excellent captain tips article (other writers are available!), have a look at the captain’s poll and go with my gut feeling.
My worst captain choice was when Man City were home bankers against a poor Blackburn team. I went for Kun (c) and Silva (v). Mancini left them both on the bench for the whole match. (Note to self: captain and vice captain should play in different matches.)
My favourite one was Charlie Austin making amends by getting a hat trick for QPR propelling me up my local ML.
Bench
£100m does not go far these days so it’s best to leave as little as possible on the bench. Playing a 3-4-3, the most popular formation, this means having a second goalie, fourth and fifth defender and fifth midfield all nailed on and costing a maximum of £4.5m each to leave a mere £18m on the bench.
Transfers
Flexibility is the name of the game. I find it best to have players of a popular price so they can be transferred easily to better performing players of the same price. The first few game weeks of the season will be manic with players we discarded clocking up the points, whilst expensive players who we thought would set the game alight can’t even play for 90mins. Last season Theo Walcott looked a bargain if he could just replicate his pre injury form of old but it soon became painfully clear than he wouldn’t get a whole game.
Having a premium defender around £5.5m and a mid price forward and two midfielders each around £7-8m provides a flexible structure and lots of options in the transfer market.
I generally avoid getting players new to the premier league in my team as they can struggle to adapt and there are already too many transfers to make. The only time I have tried was with FPL legend Michu. Maybe I will try it again.
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Where to spend the money
Defence (Inc GKs)
Over the last few seasons Southampton and other small clubs J such as Watford, Stoke (twice), Swansea, WBA, Sunderland and Newcastle have provided us with great defences which have racked the points for low outlay.
Goalies at the big clubs don’t pick up the save points that busier goalies will.
So, for me a pair of cheap rotating goalies is better than having an elite goalie.
Each season throws up cheap defensive gems.
I go for a scatter gun approach of either 2 pairs of cheap rotating defenders or if funds allow a 3 way rotation and a couple of medium priced defenders. Hopefully, I will get lucky with one or two of the cheaper teams. The plan is to set and forget the defence for the first 6GWs or so and use the time to get front 7 into shape.
The Front 7
For me, getting the right midprice forward and midfielders is one of the keys to FPL. These have the potential for the biggest price rises as no one can ignore them. Both Vardy and Mahrez went up by nearly £2m each last season. So if you can find the right players in early doors, the rest of the team fits together much more easily. The must have premium midfielders and forwards will become very apparent.
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Other Things to Bear in Mind
Points Hits
Ideally I like to make one transfer a week. This really focuses the mind into making hopefully better and longer term decisions. However, taking a hit can pay off sometimes to catch a bandwagon and increase team value, to field 11 players if short or to hit a DGW. If a cheap gem becomes apparent like Alli last season or Sterling when he played for Liverpool, it’s definitely worth the four points.
Price Rises/Falls
My favourite site to follow price change predictions is fplstatistics.co.uk
Early in the season I like to chase the dollar and make early transfers to build team value. This makes it easier to strengthen the team especially after playing the WC.
By GW8 I tend to calm down and start making my transfer(s) at the end of the GW. This lets me wait to see if players pick up injuries but also gives me more time to read through the week’s articles.
I like to follow the articles pre season and get up to speed with all the new players and then I can jump on any early bandwagons. Someone mentioned Mahrez preseason last year so he was in my team by GW2 after his electric start.
Bonus Points
It really boosts your overall ranking if you can work out and pick the better teams’ ‘star’ players who hoover up the bonus points. Those 3 points soon add up. By GW8, it usually quite clear who gets the bonus points and by then you should have extra cash to splash out on them.
Knowledge of Premier League
So do I have an in depth knowledge of the premier league?
No, not really. My team got relegated from the Prem in 2010 and are currently languishing in the fourth tier of English football. A lot of the players I watched in the Premier League don’t play there anymore.
But there are a lot of people who know their football on FF247 and I take my time to read the articles and read what people post to hear of players that I might have missed –
Cookie and NIN know a lot about Man Utd
Kop and Elle know a lot about Liverpool
Init knows a lot about Everton
Mitro knows a lot about Arsenal
TGP knows a lot about Rangers. Oh wait…
Anyway, they are a great bunch on here so feel free to ask questions and post your successes, frustrations and general banter.
Have a great season
Horse
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Takasaki Tiger
I took up FPL after trying to out ‘Cruyff turn’ my 3rd lot of U8s which eventually put me on crutches and halted the coaching.
Firstly a few fun facts about me –
– My Grandad actually played for the Hammers before the war (WW1 100+ years ago, that is) but no-one thought to mention it until my youngest kid decided to be a footballer.
– I took up coaching to help him.
– I met Geoff Hurst on a course.
– I cheered my kids national team Japan to be Womens world champions.
– This summer I cunningly booked the family holiday to be in France for the Euro final. I looked a bit daft driving a car decked in red dragons as the team flew the opposite way, worse still I went down the village pub for the final and the pub was SHUT, so in France for France in the French Euro final, SHUT. And to think I voted Remain, C’est la merde.
– Ground my way to the top 10% despite believing in the value of defenders, then last season went TV chasing and bounced around ending top 5%. Is it just me who always picks the wrong captain and the GK who gets a red card, or am I simply crap, time will tell.
– Target this year top 2%.
– Unashamed engineer geek who always wants to know how exactly E=Mc2+a bit, when I saw Mito’s chart of top mids with points as if they had played every game I couldn’t rest until I found what that might mean across the entire game.
Knowing WHY certain tactics work lets us know we are not just chasing rainbows….
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Chasing Rainbows
The perceived wisdom of the old sweats (my team) is that you play 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 spending high at the front and low at the back.
~5m at the back, ~65m up front; 5m per player versus 8m.
Yet one brief glance at value to points suggest this is completely wrong. The best points per million are GK’s and DEF’s.
It also easy to find defenders who scored similar total points as up front players at a 5m+ discount, in Aguero’s case you could buy two premium defenders total less than him and get 80% more points.
Don’t chase rainbows, spend on defence and don’t skimp on it to buy anyone over 7.5 up front. 40m back, 50m front ; 5.5m versus 6m.
I did this first my season and despite poring over charts every week finished at 270k, not bad but nowhere near great.
So what explains why the old sweats chasing rainbows win & common sense doesn’t?
The 1st thing is game time.
Average game time of the top 5 goalkeepers was 10% higher than average game time of top 5 front players.
If we drop down the points to sub 150 the gap widens to 25%, and at the cheap end sub 100 rockets to 50% less game time for the front players.
The back get dropped/injured/rested far less, which if we are not making transfers is a big plus. But since we do have transfers we should NOT be looking at total points per million but points per game per million.
Example-: McAuley 4.5m 100 points 100% play stays 100, Benteke 7.5m 100 points 50% play becomes 200 points at full gametime, so actually Benteke was best value – just not all season.
There is a wide choice of front players to buy & sell regularly to improve your team with success, it is far rarer with defence.
Buying on recent form not the points total.
The 2nd,3rd,… everything else is points.
To be near the top the season target is 2200+, that’s 200 points per player on the pitch.
We cannot accept keeping many players all season who earn less than this.
120+ is heavy rotate needed, 150+ is rotate needed , 200+ is an all season banker
Our table of players who achieved this last season is -:
120+ 150+ 200+
GK 7 2 0
DEF 14 4 0
MID 13 13 2
FWD 2 7 2
At the back there is no way to find 200+ points each without heavy rotation, so heavy that transfers will not cut it.
Simply the less defence you field the less you have to make up for elsewhere.
Up front there were 4 season bankers, and there is plenty of choice at 150+ to be able to rotate by transfer with success.
Even better with our forwards is that choosing anyone who scores above average is most likely a big hitter.
So with forwards its relatively easy to pick 3 top ones; mids 4 maybe 5 good ones.
Though sometimes 3 top forwards does just cost too much.
So here’s the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
3-4-3 or 3-5-2 it is, the rest is up to you.
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Fixture Tracker – the first 6 games
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Thanks for reading Community Musings – A Horse and a Tiger!. This article was written by Horse and Takasaki Tiger
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Vote on our Captain Poll Now
Ashley Williams to Everton. Any thoughts?
Will seriously consider him now fancy Koeman to keep Eve tight & @ 5m good fixture worth a look 😉
Don’t think he will play that much mate. Everton are going to go all out for Koulibaly once the Stones deal goes through.
Makes zero sense AnttL, to get Williams and not play him. Zero sense.
Hi Ant, going for Williams is a good move I feel, it also kind of suggests that Koulibaly may not happen but let’s see.
@ silvers
If anything it makes Baines more interesting. Hoping Stones gets sold because he killed a lot of cleanshits.
From what i understand mate Koeman feels that where very week at the back. Maybe he doesn’t facy Mori, or even Jagielka. But from what i understand Koulibaly is his number 1 transfer target for the summer and Everton are going to try the best to get him. Koulibaly’s agent has already stated that Everton have put a bid on the table.
AnttL/ Raz surely Williams would be a starter , I have looked @ Baines on & off but @ present I’ve gone with Walker & Shaw some stats suggest these are the best option.
Tottenham and Manchester United top the Defence table thanks to their disciplined defensive performances last season that saw them both concede a league lowest of just 35.
The table suggests that Tottenham are likely to keep a clean sheet in their first five Premier League matches, with Crystal Palace (H) and Stoke (A) being the most likely fixtures.
Manchester United on the other hand are very likely to not concede in their first three away matches as they face new boys Hull, Bournemouth and Watford.
cheers 😉
anybody knows that Bains regains his duty on pens and free-kicks?
If Koeman is smart he will let Baines have a bigger role again this season. Baines was the main reason why Everton collapsed last season.
I think Evertons defensive inadequies last season lay at Martinezs door. For some reason he decided to employ the Liverpool tactic of trying to score more then they concede which is just laughable tbh. Liverpool couldnt even pull it off with Suarez. Like for instance, im not sure how many but JohnStones was solely responsible for a few goals because of his show boating. Under Pep he will improve so its a good move for everyone I think, even though 50mil is ridiculous.
I expect Baines and the rest of the Everton defence will have a much more prominant role this season and their defence will be good again.
Raz
I think our own Init would lay the blame for Everton’s collapse (or more accurately general inadequacy) at the previous manager’s door and I would agree. I think it’s harsh to say Baines individually was the main reason they collapsed.
Not what I meant GeePee. I meant Baines wasn’t behind the manager anymore which was his downfall. Ack, might have explained it poorly, again.
Has this move been confirmed?
Nope. Should fo today tho.
Cheers Anttl Still think I’ll be going with Baines though.
I’m also going with Baines. Hopefully he will be back on pens.
Yeah that’s what I’m hoping for plus he’ll be back taking some free kicks too.
Good short-term replacement for Stones who go to city!
A great transfer in my opinion and for relatively cheap compared to other transfers. He is an experienced head with pl experience. I expect him to really help organise that everton back line whether stones leaves or not
Considering Arsenal’s central defensive worries due to injuries and the fact they’re not that good anyway haha, I was surprised they wouldn’t have made a bid considering the 10 mil price tag! That’s a steal in my book! He’s a top class defender IMO. I don’t think there’s a team in the PL that he wouldn’t improve honestly!!
He was the first one I thought of when I heard the Mert news. And they’ve been linked previously. You know Arsene though, when it’s obvious he misses it or is deliberately contrary. Odd. Be delighted if Everton get him, perfect fit. The other ‘defenders’ will be in shock for a bit though. At the sight of a defender who likes to defend as the first priority.
Apparently Swansea have turned down a bid of £10m from Everton so Arsenal have offered £9.5m.
Yeah exactly!! It really is a strange one even for him! Just another class act to add to his “Nearly signed him” list lol
But yeah he’ll do great for Everton I’m sure. He’s a properly good defender. It’s pretty funny that you mention the attacking minded-ness of the defenders actually – never really thought about it much but it’s very true!! To have a centre back like Stones, and full back who takes set pieces and penalties and another full back who was one of the main attacking threats for the team a few seasons ago must be some sort of anomaly haha!
You must be chuffed with Koeman though! He’s an amazing manager. Always been good in the transfer market too. Van Dijk is another great centre back he got on the cheap! I did think it was a bit rubbish for Southampton and their supporters as he genuinely seemed happy at the club, and as an Everton supporter it must be great to have him!! Even with how competitive the league will be this season I do think Everton will do well this season and in the future. Maybe dark horses if you will to get a Europa league place at least!
hahahahahahhah kop!!
Kop – but only on the condition he is classed as a midfielder & stops organising others around him.
Having a real Captain would ruin the ‘je ne sais quoi’ (translates as ‘fk knows’ at Highbury)
Bob, it’s an odd situation. Had we got the buyer and investment that we’ve got now, but 10 years ago, it’d be really exciting and we’d have probably done a City or Chelsea. The scene is very different now though. Money alone can’t separate you any more. It helps of course but it’s a much more level playing field at the top end with City, United, Chelsea (and Arsenal – reluctantly, able but less willing) to pay whatever it takes. This has seen a shift change in terms of approach and why they’ve all gone out and got the best coaches – Pep, Jose, Conte, Klopp. I can’t remember a time when the league had so many top coaches from across Europe all at once. Given the above then yes I’m happy with Koeman and he should do well but he’s swimming against it to break the top 4.
Yeah totally agree innit. I was thinking that in any other season – even last – with Koeman, a proper centre back, lukaku and a reasonable playing style (haha) they’d be making a case for top 4. With the power of so many clubs this year, it is definitely a bit of a reach which shows the mad amount of money in the league. It’s mad that millionaires can almost seem out of their depth money wise haha. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Everton finish 7th or 6th and go on a big cup run nonetheless. With so much focus on the league and how close they’ve come in past seasons if they got to the league or FA cup final it wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Please dont go, dont gooo away, dont go.
Swan
Can I have a few comments on Mahrez I’m really unsure if Lei are going to do anything this season , options would be Ozil , Payet , Mkhi (although I have Ibra) or maybe Haz but would need more cash or another ???
I’ve gone with Payet and Hazard.
Silvers
I watched him against Celtic two weeks ago and he scored a beautiful goal and still retained all the fantastic qualities he had last season. I think it is natural for us to say that Leicester can’t repeat a once-in-a-lifetime, stars-have-aligned season but that doesn’t mean to say their star players form or class will drop off a cliff.
I’d still support having Mahrez in my team, no question.
Ozil & Payet are almost certainly going to miss the first game, Especially Ozil I didnt see it but apparently Wenger dropped loads of hints he would be resting people who were in the euros at late stages
Doubling up on Utd might be a bit much as we still don’t know what to expect from the Mou team – later in the season, maybe, but it ties up a lot of funds…
Haz could be a must have this season under Conte IMO
What a brilliant bit of lunchtime entertainment there.
Enormous thanks go to the Horse and Tiger.
Love that little pub 😉
Hi all
Been a while since posting. Could someone have a browse of my team. Cheers
Dont know much about snodgrass, I asked mymate from Hull who their best player is. He told me everything goes through Jake Livermore, but I cant confirm that. Lamela probably will hvae a good season and his pre-season form has been good. Just if you can find an extra 0.5mil somewhere you could get Ayew who is probably going to be playing as a false 9. Last season he scored 12, he is afar safer bet then Lamela IMO. Or you could pick Siggy as he is on set pieces
Cheers Luke
Any alternatives to snodgrass? Not sure on gk or defs. Whether shud bring in shaw
Dier or lamela? if dier this could free cash to upgrade snodgrass or defence
Hi kickers, welcome back. Snodgrass actually has decent stats, something like 6 goals, 2 assists and 6 goals and 9 assists in his last two full PL seasons and they were in the equivalent of just 28 and 33 games. Trouble with him in a word is Hull! I think I’d rather go for a Deulofeu or one of the Palace lads if you can find a touch more money.
Is this any better?
WTF!? Why are people interested in Dier? I would only consider him if he was still defender. As mid he’ll bring you as much points as Fletcher, which isn’t much. Or am I missing something here? Is he attacking mid now?
Or this one
Good team. I wouldn’t want both Ibra and Mkh something. I also would prefer Ayew over Lamela.
Cheers raz does this work better
Team looks dope, very much like mine, to be honest. Mine is just a little bit better. But there has to be a difference. HAHA! 😉
Hey guys, I think I got me a beastly team already. Watcha reckon?
Like this team Raz very similar to mine baring 4-5 players cant argue with the back line although I have Walker & Shaw I like the Deuf punt & I’m trying to fit him in somehow I assume you will change Ayew after two games , maybe change Fetcher to Leko or Maloney cracking effort mate 😉
Indeed, also depends on his form. Maybe it’s a I can score versus anyone season for him, like Michu a few season ago.
Leko or Maloney? Hmmm.
Roll up Roll up get your self a doubles partner & join the F247 doubles League send an e-mail to Elle @ elleffcee@fantasyfootball247.co.uk see if you can take the prestige of winning from Matt & I just a bit of fun. 😉