Community Musings – A Horse and a Tiger!
The 2016/17 pre-season will go down as the summer of musings. We had Cookie musing on the FPL release day over a plate of sardines, we had Mito musing over a plate of sardines and salmons, trying his best to distinguish between the two, we had GP musing over an entire shoal. The whole thing was beginning to feel a bit fishy. We aren’t quite sure why so many FPL’ers gravitate towards animals to complete their identity but a simple twitter search on the phenomenon reveals all manner from the FPLTortoise straight through to the FPLGreyhound. What we needed for some clarity were some horses and some tigers…. shazan, we got 2 e-mails, one from a horse and one from a tiger! Both offering up some musings on how they usually approach FPL and how they will be doing so this season. And just a bit of general natter in between about themselves, which is exactly what we like!
We get approached almost daily with people offering up FPL articles that they’d like posted but in all honesty our answer is usually ‘do you use the site, will people recognise you?’. We’re nothing if we’re not a community site so when the community ask it’s almost always a yes. And so witout further ado, over to the lads…
Horse
I am just starting my 6th season of FPL! I can’t believe where the time has gone. The first season I didn’t have a clue what I was doing. I kept captaining Kompany as he was a good captain at his club! In January of that year, sat with an overall rank of 2m, I had the good fortune to encounter Fantasy Football Cheat with their great weekly articles and a very helpful and active community chat. With that help I made it to round 6 of the FPL cup and finished at a relatively respectable 627,000. At the end of that 1st season I sat down and did some thinking and wrote down a list of things to try out in the next season. I have put these guidelines into practice since and followed the site and it’s eventual transition into FF247 and since then I have finished each season in the top 30K, winning the Chedsoga league (remember that), FFC manager of the month and the Banterbury Cup along the way.
One of the turning points along my road to fantasy football addiction was watching my team Portsmouth play at home in a must win relegation battle against Burnley in the Championship during out melt down period. We were destroyed 1-5 by a Charlie Austin hat trick and in the pub afterwards we could not bear to talk about real football and instead discussed about the merits of captaining Van Persie.
Anyway, I would like to share some thoughts to help newbies and veterans alike get started in setting up their team for the upcoming season. It is not the only way to set a team up but it works for me.
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A Guide to setting up your team
Fantasy football is a simple game really. Each game week you choose a captain, stick 4 players on the bench and usually make one transfer.
So what does mean for setting up an initial team?
Captain
Personally, I like to have a good selection of potential captains. So, I set up with 4 premium players (£9m+): 2 forwards and 2 midfield. Ideally, these should rotate to give strong armband options for the first few GWs.
However, as last season showed, cheaper players such as Mahrez and Payet can be good captains too.
When possible I like to plan ahead and make sure I have a decent captain option for the next 6 GWs or so. Each GW I usually read TGP’s excellent captain tips article (other writers are available!), have a look at the captain’s poll and go with my gut feeling.
My worst captain choice was when Man City were home bankers against a poor Blackburn team. I went for Kun (c) and Silva (v). Mancini left them both on the bench for the whole match. (Note to self: captain and vice captain should play in different matches.)
My favourite one was Charlie Austin making amends by getting a hat trick for QPR propelling me up my local ML.
Bench
£100m does not go far these days so it’s best to leave as little as possible on the bench. Playing a 3-4-3, the most popular formation, this means having a second goalie, fourth and fifth defender and fifth midfield all nailed on and costing a maximum of £4.5m each to leave a mere £18m on the bench.
Transfers
Flexibility is the name of the game. I find it best to have players of a popular price so they can be transferred easily to better performing players of the same price. The first few game weeks of the season will be manic with players we discarded clocking up the points, whilst expensive players who we thought would set the game alight can’t even play for 90mins. Last season Theo Walcott looked a bargain if he could just replicate his pre injury form of old but it soon became painfully clear than he wouldn’t get a whole game.
Having a premium defender around £5.5m and a mid price forward and two midfielders each around £7-8m provides a flexible structure and lots of options in the transfer market.
I generally avoid getting players new to the premier league in my team as they can struggle to adapt and there are already too many transfers to make. The only time I have tried was with FPL legend Michu. Maybe I will try it again.
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Where to spend the money
Defence (Inc GKs)
Over the last few seasons Southampton and other small clubs J such as Watford, Stoke (twice), Swansea, WBA, Sunderland and Newcastle have provided us with great defences which have racked the points for low outlay.
Goalies at the big clubs don’t pick up the save points that busier goalies will.
So, for me a pair of cheap rotating goalies is better than having an elite goalie.
Each season throws up cheap defensive gems.
I go for a scatter gun approach of either 2 pairs of cheap rotating defenders or if funds allow a 3 way rotation and a couple of medium priced defenders. Hopefully, I will get lucky with one or two of the cheaper teams. The plan is to set and forget the defence for the first 6GWs or so and use the time to get front 7 into shape.
The Front 7
For me, getting the right midprice forward and midfielders is one of the keys to FPL. These have the potential for the biggest price rises as no one can ignore them. Both Vardy and Mahrez went up by nearly £2m each last season. So if you can find the right players in early doors, the rest of the team fits together much more easily. The must have premium midfielders and forwards will become very apparent.
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Other Things to Bear in Mind
Points Hits
Ideally I like to make one transfer a week. This really focuses the mind into making hopefully better and longer term decisions. However, taking a hit can pay off sometimes to catch a bandwagon and increase team value, to field 11 players if short or to hit a DGW. If a cheap gem becomes apparent like Alli last season or Sterling when he played for Liverpool, it’s definitely worth the four points.
Price Rises/Falls
My favourite site to follow price change predictions is fplstatistics.co.uk
Early in the season I like to chase the dollar and make early transfers to build team value. This makes it easier to strengthen the team especially after playing the WC.
By GW8 I tend to calm down and start making my transfer(s) at the end of the GW. This lets me wait to see if players pick up injuries but also gives me more time to read through the week’s articles.
I like to follow the articles pre season and get up to speed with all the new players and then I can jump on any early bandwagons. Someone mentioned Mahrez preseason last year so he was in my team by GW2 after his electric start.
Bonus Points
It really boosts your overall ranking if you can work out and pick the better teams’ ‘star’ players who hoover up the bonus points. Those 3 points soon add up. By GW8, it usually quite clear who gets the bonus points and by then you should have extra cash to splash out on them.
Knowledge of Premier League
So do I have an in depth knowledge of the premier league?
No, not really. My team got relegated from the Prem in 2010 and are currently languishing in the fourth tier of English football. A lot of the players I watched in the Premier League don’t play there anymore.
But there are a lot of people who know their football on FF247 and I take my time to read the articles and read what people post to hear of players that I might have missed –
Cookie and NIN know a lot about Man Utd
Kop and Elle know a lot about Liverpool
Init knows a lot about Everton
Mitro knows a lot about Arsenal
TGP knows a lot about Rangers. Oh wait…
Anyway, they are a great bunch on here so feel free to ask questions and post your successes, frustrations and general banter.
Have a great season
Horse
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Takasaki Tiger
I took up FPL after trying to out ‘Cruyff turn’ my 3rd lot of U8s which eventually put me on crutches and halted the coaching.
Firstly a few fun facts about me –
– My Grandad actually played for the Hammers before the war (WW1 100+ years ago, that is) but no-one thought to mention it until my youngest kid decided to be a footballer.
– I took up coaching to help him.
– I met Geoff Hurst on a course.
– I cheered my kids national team Japan to be Womens world champions.
– This summer I cunningly booked the family holiday to be in France for the Euro final. I looked a bit daft driving a car decked in red dragons as the team flew the opposite way, worse still I went down the village pub for the final and the pub was SHUT, so in France for France in the French Euro final, SHUT. And to think I voted Remain, C’est la merde.
– Ground my way to the top 10% despite believing in the value of defenders, then last season went TV chasing and bounced around ending top 5%. Is it just me who always picks the wrong captain and the GK who gets a red card, or am I simply crap, time will tell.
– Target this year top 2%.
– Unashamed engineer geek who always wants to know how exactly E=Mc2+a bit, when I saw Mito’s chart of top mids with points as if they had played every game I couldn’t rest until I found what that might mean across the entire game.
Knowing WHY certain tactics work lets us know we are not just chasing rainbows….
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Chasing Rainbows
The perceived wisdom of the old sweats (my team) is that you play 3-4-3 or 3-5-2 spending high at the front and low at the back.
~5m at the back, ~65m up front; 5m per player versus 8m.
Yet one brief glance at value to points suggest this is completely wrong. The best points per million are GK’s and DEF’s.
It also easy to find defenders who scored similar total points as up front players at a 5m+ discount, in Aguero’s case you could buy two premium defenders total less than him and get 80% more points.
Don’t chase rainbows, spend on defence and don’t skimp on it to buy anyone over 7.5 up front. 40m back, 50m front ; 5.5m versus 6m.
I did this first my season and despite poring over charts every week finished at 270k, not bad but nowhere near great.
So what explains why the old sweats chasing rainbows win & common sense doesn’t?
The 1st thing is game time.
Average game time of the top 5 goalkeepers was 10% higher than average game time of top 5 front players.
If we drop down the points to sub 150 the gap widens to 25%, and at the cheap end sub 100 rockets to 50% less game time for the front players.
The back get dropped/injured/rested far less, which if we are not making transfers is a big plus. But since we do have transfers we should NOT be looking at total points per million but points per game per million.
Example-: McAuley 4.5m 100 points 100% play stays 100, Benteke 7.5m 100 points 50% play becomes 200 points at full gametime, so actually Benteke was best value – just not all season.
There is a wide choice of front players to buy & sell regularly to improve your team with success, it is far rarer with defence.
Buying on recent form not the points total.
The 2nd,3rd,… everything else is points.
To be near the top the season target is 2200+, that’s 200 points per player on the pitch.
We cannot accept keeping many players all season who earn less than this.
120+ is heavy rotate needed, 150+ is rotate needed , 200+ is an all season banker
Our table of players who achieved this last season is -:
120+ 150+ 200+
GK 7 2 0
DEF 14 4 0
MID 13 13 2
FWD 2 7 2
At the back there is no way to find 200+ points each without heavy rotation, so heavy that transfers will not cut it.
Simply the less defence you field the less you have to make up for elsewhere.
Up front there were 4 season bankers, and there is plenty of choice at 150+ to be able to rotate by transfer with success.
Even better with our forwards is that choosing anyone who scores above average is most likely a big hitter.
So with forwards its relatively easy to pick 3 top ones; mids 4 maybe 5 good ones.
Though sometimes 3 top forwards does just cost too much.
So here’s the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.
3-4-3 or 3-5-2 it is, the rest is up to you.
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Fixture Tracker – the first 6 games
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Thanks for reading Community Musings – A Horse and a Tiger!. This article was written by Horse and Takasaki Tiger
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Vote on our Captain Poll Now
Evening gents and mito
How are we getting on? Teams sets? Cappo’s decided?
Almost set but not quite. Aguero captain for me anyway, no doubt about that.
Think I will go Walker , Stones or Shaw for Cap :smiling:
Yep Kun for me however I am tempted to go with either Mahrez or hazard
I’m hoping Stones goes to City and either Fellaini or Januzaji goes to United. Both could be decent value. Berahino at Stoke could be good as well
Goes to Sunderland from United
Smash – if he goes to city he could be a absolute bargain!
Almost set, thanks. Any thoughts on my team posted above?
Leroooooy sane – thoughts?
I reckon he will be 9 million which is too much
I’m hoping 7.0
You wish he comes up at 7.
No chance
Not until we know he’s a starter. City have a lot of options.
Yeah I think there could be a lot of rotation in that City midfield.
I think he is nailed on to start
I think Pep rotated a lot at Bayern. And was all very unpredictable. But yeah best team I’d expect him to start
Well, Gotze and Lewandowski were’t guaranteed starts at Bayern under Pep, so…
And Ribery and Muller were on the bench in a crucial champs league game I remember as well
Ribery and PeP were not best of friends. Just a comment….I’ll move along now.
I’d agree with NIN and Smash. He’s a great young player but that hasn’t stopped pep before!!
I’d imagine it may take some time for him to adapt to Pep’s wants and needs as a manager too, as Sane played with so much freedom last year which probably won’t be given to him this season. Pep likes his players to have a very specific role, but we’ll see. He’s given young players a lot of freedom in the past like a certain, what was his name messu or something, so who knows. He could be nullified a bit like Ribery as mentioned before, but for sane’s sake I hope not!
*Yawns…Hello peeps! What’s the word today?
Hangover.
That was the best one.
Tinkering again, a never ending circle. I have another draft here, i think its the best i have managed yet. well i think so. Any comments or suggestion will be greatly appreciated.
Solid team IMO. I’d only reconsider Hart as 2 budget GKs would free up funds if needed. Best wishes.
Thanks Anti, the keeper suggestion is a good idea, but i want to capitalise on man city’s first few matches which i think are good. Also even if i free up some money, about 1M i would think, its really not enough to upgrade the midfield better. Any ideas who to upgrade?
Like the team a lot!
However, it might be a bit risky to star the season with 2 midfielders who’ve newly signed for a different club and a 3rd you do’t plan to play. That being said, sacrifices do have to be made if you want Ibra, Aguero and Haz.
The defence I have no issue with though and should be a good untill we feel out which teams are the best defensively this season.
Love the front 3 of course and the bench shouldn’t be too much of an issue as hopefully you won’t have to play many of the bench dwellers!
Thank you BillsBob, Your comments are wise. I will look to sort those midfielders out once i find better options at that price range. I could consider Townsend but the same would apply. As Hojbjerg, i think he will be a starter and i prefer him to fletcher for the same price.
That’s fairly close to what I have so far. Tinkering with the lower end players and the defensive mix at the moment but the front 7 is very similar.
Initttowinit, Thank you. If you are thinking along the same line, then i am doing something right. What are your optios for the defence?
Just logging on now actually Gunner to have a play around so I’ll come back to you in a bit if have an epiphany!
Here we go Gunner, latest one as promised. Changed a fair bit actually!
Not bad but if going with Aguero + Zlatan then i’d probably pull some money from the defence and make an upgrade in midfield.
Hi NiN, i think i can raise 1M from the Goalkeeper by downgrading to a 4.5 who would you reccomend upgrading Redmonf or Fergoli?
Either or up to Townsend i’d say.
5.5m midfielder
Ibe or Feghouli?
I don’t like either which is a problem as I might go with one of them. Ibe maybe shades it as he will definately play
I’m leaning towards Feghouli in that bracket. Not seen anything of him yet but he’s getting good reports feom the games so far. Plus he’s obviously in a better team. Their fixtures aren’t the best though.
Thanks for the help.
I would love a 5.5m mid but I keep going back to fletcher to save funds.
As a Hammer Im hoping they buy in Ayew who really would be a cheap Payet.
Otherwise I expect Antonio to overlap so much he gets more points than feghhouli
That’s the spirit
Evening all , from rainy Cape Town . Been playing this FPL for a few years now with reasonable results . Quick question to the pundits who ive been following for a while . Ive had a good look at and read a lot of proposed teams for GW1 , and I havent seen Jamie Vardy featured once in the front 3 ……… WHY ?
Hey Yogis, I’d say due to fixtures and the fact that Vardy won’t be anywhere near as good this year. Combine all that with the fact that there is a lot of good options up top this year there just isn’t space for him. Oh and he’s also no longer 5.5 Mil so isn’t a bargain anymore.
Thanks for your reply Matt , but I kinda need to disagree with you . There’s no guarantee he wont be as good as last season , he might be better especially if Mahrez stays , which im hoping he wont . Secondly , Leicester have the most ” easiest ” first 6 games according to the Poll here . Even at 10 mill , comparably there is no one with a better track record ( even if it was his 1st season ) the only one comparable would be Kane @ 11 mil or Ibra @ 11.5 mill . Hmmm food for thought , but really baffled .
Disagree away mate. I do see where you’re coming from and I agree if Mahrez stays then Vardy may do well but like Init says below he won’t go on the run he did last year and from maybe April to the end of the season he would usually do nothing but get 2 points or an assist. In Leicesters first 6 fixtures they have Arsenal, Liverpool and United so I wouldn’t call that easy that does of course off set against Hull and Burnley but even Swansea may prove a tight one. I’m not convinced by Ibra myself but I’ve stuck him in my team because it’s easier to have and sell then to not have and need to buy. Kane I’ll be leaving out of my team because he usually doesnt do much for the first few weeks and then starts firing and with the Euros this summer it may have taken more out of him.
@Matt , thanks for your opinion and btw nice season last year
@ Yogis, Cheers mate had a pretty good year last year. Sadly there’s a massive gap in my history because I had to use a different email. How’d you do mate?
@Matt , horrid season last year 2019 points , bad captain decisions cost me at least 150 points . But im adamant to stick to 1 0r 2 players this season instead of going with my head . Also learnt a lot re bench boost , triple cpt points etc ,didnt really max those options out . Eh , you learn something everyday , and im sure ill learn a lot this season . Want a top 1000 finish by hook or by crook lol
I’ve been asking myself the same question, same with Mahrez really but he’s starting to pop up more and more now. They’re both in my team anyway, for the first few weeks at least.
Hey NIN does that mean you have left Ibra out ???
Ive also left him out for now
Yeah. I’m not starting the season with him.
Yip I got Mahrez and Mki , and im really convinced that Vardy will do well , after his refusal to join us Gunners , he needs to prove a point me thinks
10 million is expensive
Thanks Smash , but too expensive compared to who ?
Excellent point YOGIS. Thought the same myself with Kane and Mahrez. Although Kane may be slightly different as he often begins slowly. I can’t speak for anyone else but personally it’s just down to price and other players. Had Ibra not come then my front 3 would probably be Kun, Vardy, Kane / Lukaku. With Ibra that’s not possible really. Of course you can still go that way and yes it’s a slight surprise that those with no Ibra haven’t. That’s probably just a team balance thing and with him being a much higher price now. Plus he’s unlikely to go on a run again like he did last season. Don’t forget it was record breaking and those things don’t occur very often. He was hardly a BPS magnet either, even when he did score he’d struggle to get them sometimes. Just my take.
Thanks init , ive been following your posts as well as Raziel from last season . You are right with regards to ahis goal scoring antics , but I do feel he’s still worth 20 goals this season . Who else besides Kun can u say that about ? Its kinda cool though that a very few of us will got he Vardy route , andmaybe take a sizeable lead or decent kick start before all others latch on . But eh its a long season , but im gonna keep my front three ( and I very rarely reveal my team ) to Kun , Vardy and Gray
I certainly wouldn’t discourage you from getting him, I’d rather be going in with him than not if budget allowed. I just fancy Ibra myself which makes Vardy unattainable for now in that system. That’s all one can do really, make a decision and hope it works! There’ll be 2 or 3 we all regret overlooking, there always is. Hopefully for you Vardy is one and you can enjoy his points while others scramble around to rearrange frantically!
Thanks mate , just had a look at your past seasons stats , very impressive . Id love to join a league that your have joined , so can keep tabs on your side lol . Good night , I look forward to further chats with you throughout the season
@Yogis, part of Vardy’s appeal was his price. He allowed for you to spend cash elsewhere, not the case this time. Now, you can still make the argument that he is well worth it if he is scoring 20 goals. So the argument early on last season was that he wasn’t getting bonus points, but by the end he had 30 which puts him only behind Mahrez and Kane in BPS gathered, so not sure if that holds water anymore. There was only 4 games last season where he didn’t get at least 1 bonus point if he scored. One of those he only played 55 minutes. Plus Mahrez to a degree held his bonus point production down with some of his outstanding efforts.
Furthermore, he only had one stretch of 4 games and one of 2 games where he did not have a goal or an assist in a game for a total of 8 games without doing something. Which means he had either a goal or an assist in 30 of the 38 games. That’s amazing!! Well, I started out trying to make a case against him, I might just buy the t**t now.
Hey YOGIS, if you write Team Talk every week, you can join the Contributors League!
#sortedatlast
@Mito , thanks m8 , you just sealed the deal for me he he , even though I never had any doubt .
Lol, thanks YOGIS, I’m laughing because you made me look at them myself
Yeah they’re OK. Consistent if not spectacular. Last season being the worst. Just glad I maintained that top 100k thing in all honesty as it was a disaster outside of that.
As for leagues I don’t really enter many. I have my own league with the lads from footy which is closed, without being rude, and other than that it’s pretty much just the FF247 main one and the Regs one now I guess, when I get round to entering it. If I’m in others they’ll just be request ones from twitter or the site but I don’t look at any other than my ‘footy lads’ one.
@Cookie , dunno what you mean by that , but im normally very silent and just picking up on positive feedback . Dont know what contributors league is ?
YOGIS, the Contributors League is for those who write for the site. TeamTalk is basically the weekend preview, which goes through all the press conferences on a Friday.
Sadly, i’m lumbered with it until we can find a willing volunteer 😉
I’m not sure I see Vardy scoring 20+ goals this season. Last season was Roy of the Rovers stuff for Vardy and it will take a phenomenal effort to replicate that. As the lads have pointed out he’ll have CL football to contend with this season and that could have a big drain on the players.
For me it was his value for money that made him such a force last season and I just don’t see him providing the same value this season.
I could of course be very wrong and for that reason I wouldn’t discourage any one from buying him.
Better chance of Vardy scoring 20 goals than Cookie finding a replacement.
Fact is no one knows why Vardy could suddenly be rubbish, I think its just the sudden jump in price.
Here’s my Tv chasers team, its front loaded and not anticipated to get past wk4 without a WC.
I am right in thinking red flagged 4.0s are price locked yes?
Aahhh , found another Vardy man lol . Nice side , I initially wanted De Bruyne but felt it was a little too early in the season for him , even though I had for most of last season , took a chance on Mkit this time round , knowing that if he doesnt produce I can go back DB if needed
Tiger he won’t drop now as there are no transfers to trigger it but once it’s live it is my understanding that he can then drop until unflagged and then the usual rules apply. Happy to be corrected if anyone knows different though.
Hi YOGIS,
Great little discussion you’ve started here on Vardy.
One thing I didn’t see covered was the Champions League involvement for Leicester (and Vardy). This for me will catch up with them. I think Vardy will probably start all six group games and this could have an effect on his performances the weekend after.
Don’t forget also that a huge factor on them eventually going on to become Champions was the lack of cup involvement last season – they went out the League Cup before the Quarter Finals and were knocked out the FA Cup after their first game. So it does still need to be proven that they can juggle cup involvement with keeping in touch with the elite in the Premier League.
Hi Gallant
Ive also been monitoring your comments for a few days now . You make a good point and I agree this will be a challenging season for Leicester as a whole . But if Ranierri , and im sure he will , manages his side correctly and Vardy keeps his fitness he will be there scoring goals , the same could be said for all the other top strikers . My belief is that their focus will be on the EPL , CL and a smaller degree FA Cup , so I think Ranierri will rest him and utilise Ulloa ( if he’s still there ) where needed . I gotta be honest though , if Mahrez does move to Arsenal , Jamie goes out my team