Differentials Explored Fantasy Football Game-week 9

Differentials Explored Fantasy Football Game-week 9 – Fantasy Premier League 2015/16

The moral of this article is to perhaps be careful what you say in the comments section sometimes, as one wrong move can find you stuck behind a keyboard for two days flat rueing something as simple as asking “Hey, FF247, can we have a differentials article please”. Never one to look a gift horse in the mouth we of course said yes you can. When you write it. Some would have laughed it off and said fair enough but to the credit of Pancho he took it as a challenge and only went and wrote one. And it’s a good one too. Hence you sitting here now reading it. Hats off to community regular and now article debutant Pancho as he presents you with his differential picks for the weeks ahead.

The aim here is simply to present some different options for you to consider and it’s especially pertinent given all the excess funds sloshing around as a result of the likes of Aguero and Silva disappearing for a few weeks.

Well done Pancho.

Enjoy…

[clear]

Goalkeepers – Cheap(er) Options
[three_fourth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fourth]Boaz Myhill
While being second on the scoring charts for keepers and costing only 4.7m, Myhill only serves 9.7% of teams. To top it off, his next three fixtures are Sunderland at home, Norwich away, and then Leicester at home. The first two have definite clean sheet potential, and home to Leicester will provide plenty of save potential. After those three WBA have a rough run of 5 games with Man United, Arsenal, West Ham, Spurs and Liverpool on the bounce, so you need a plan to rotate him a bit starting from GW12. A few fun facts: Myhill boasts a 1.35 goal against average, which is not too shabby. The interesting thing is that at home his goals against average is 2.25, while he boasts an average of just 0.5 goals against away from home. Regardless of where he’s playing, he’s averaging over 5 points per game and has less than 10% ownership.

Huerleho Gomes
The former Spurs shot stopper has had an amazing start to the season. He has three clean sheets and is only allowing 0.875 goals per game. If you think that is amazing for a newly promoted side, check out these stats: FPL scoring (1st) – Cost (4.6m) Gomes has also scored at least one point for saves accumulated in six out of eight games! This guy is playing above himself this season and if he keeps it up then he is an incredible pick-up.

Interestingly enough, Gomes has four nice fixtures out of five from GWs 12-16, with Leicester, Villa, Norwich and Sunderland in that run. This nice sequence for him coincides directly with Myhill’s poor run of fixtures. If you are on a Wildcard then I highly recommend picking these two up for a total of 9.3m!

[divider_1px]

If you are looking for a mid-high priced keeper then look at Fabianski or Howard…
Fabianski costs 5m and features in just 9% of teams. He and the Swans have a nice run of five fixtures coming up: Stoke (H), Aston Villa (A), Arsenal (H), Norwich (A) and Bournemouth (H). I would be surprised if he doesn’t snag 3 clean sheets in that run.

Howard costs 5.1 and features in just 7.4% of teams. His next two are not ideal (United at home and Arsenal away), but after that his fixtures look really sweet! If you’re not buying it yet, maybe the fact that his three clean sheets thus far are all away from home and against Southampton, Spurs, and Swansea. Their four away games after Arsenal are WHU/Bourn/Nor/Newcastle, which look much easier than those three where they shut the door. If they can keep their away form firing then you can expect some clean sheets from those. Their five home games after United look even more appetizing: Sun/Villa/CP/Lei/Stk. I could easily see 5-6 clean sheets from GWs 11-19.

If you are on a wildcard then you could go with Fab/Howard & Hennessey in order to stay around the 9m mark. If you have a little extra then go with Myhill and Howard for 9.8m, although that’s a little more than most like to have tied up.

[divider_1px]

Defenders
Firstly, any defender with less than a 5% ownership from the above mentioned teams/keepers could be seen as a decent differential. I wanted to mention my favorite choice as a differential for each.

WBA – Craig Dawson has played every minute this season, recording four clean sheets and notching one goal. Worryingly is his lacks of bonus points, but I can overlook that if he is good for 6 points every other game and a random couple of goals. At 5.1m and being trusted by only 3.5% of managers he is well worth it!

Watford – There isn’t much to separate the three who have played every minute, but Allan-Roméo Nyom has recorded the most bonus points (4) which tips my hand in his favor. Careful though, as he is carrying a slight knock and has come off early in the last two. This may actually be an advantage though, as he makes it past the 60 minute mark, so goals in the last twenty or so minutes won’t count against him. At only 4.5m and with an ownership of just 1.8% he would be the Watford defender I’d go with. Just wait for pressers at the end of the week.

Swansea – There isn’t much between the members of their back four right now. All cost 5m, all have scored between 21-26 points this season, all sharing the bonus points. Williams would edge it for me based upon performances in past seasons, but his ownership is just under 10%, so I would choose Naughton. My reasoning? He shares the right side with Ayew, who has been in top form this season and just may open up space for Naughton to get forward more regularly than Taylor on the opposite side. Naughton it is, with only a 1.7% ownership! He’s yellow flagged for missing last gameweek, but it was for personal reasons and not an injury so I expect him to be straight back into the team this week assuming that those issues have been resolved.

Everton – Everton’s back four has included six different players. Of those six, two are currently flagged with injuries and two of the others will lose their spots whenever those flagged are back. That leaves two: Jagielka (not a differential at 17%) and the other will lose his spot when the player I am choosing returns in a couple of weeks. Have you pieced it together yet? I’m talking about Leighton Baines. At 6.2m he is no bargain, but if he can stay healthy and return to the form he exhibited before last season then anyone brave enough to pick him up could definitely gain ground on those above them because of his meagre 2.7% ownership. He is usually on all left footed set pieces and corners, and he may even be on pens again without Mirallas’s grubby paws snatching the ball out of his grasp. Fortunately enough he is set to return just in time for Sunderland at home in GW 11.

[divider_1px]

Secondly, let me mention a couple of differentials on teams who have been keeping clean sheets and who should continue to do so regularly.
Nacho Monreal is fourth in total points for defenders yet he only features in 6.8 percent of teams. At 5.7m he is not a bargain, but he seems to be worth the money. He has two assists, five clean sheets, and five BPs out of eight games. He tends to also toe the line well with only one yellow card out of eight games. He’s averaging just under five points per game, which is great consistency for this low-scoring season. Arsenal’s next eight fixtures make Monreal an enticing differential.

Pablo Zabaleta has only featured in one PL game this season so far but it is for Man City, who have clean sheets in five out of eight fixtures. It says a lot that Zabaleta was brought in for Sagna as soon as he was healthy and fit. He should be favored whenever he is healthy, and at 5.8m he is the cheapest way into what should settle as the City back four of Kol/Komp/Otam/Zab. With only a 0.7% ownership there is plenty of room to make up ground through Zabaleta. Lastly, with Kun, Yaya and Silva injured I fancy Pellegrini will be playing a little more defensively, as he must recognize they won’t score as they have been without those three. A defensively minded Pellegrini will bode well for City clean sheets.

[divider_1px]

[three_fourth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fourth]Lastly, let me mention a few attacking minded defenders all at or just under 5m.
The attack-minded Spurs fullback Kyle Walker features for just 1.5% of FPL managers. Walker gets forward regularly… well, let me rephrase that. Sometimes Kyle plays defence. That’s better. He loves to attack and has a ferocious right foot and is on the occasional free kick when he fancies a long strike that’s too far out for Eriksen to have a go. 5m may be a bit much for most to stomach, but Spurs upcoming fixtures look alright and he is sure to chip in with some goals or assists along the way. Maybe my optimism as a Spurs fan is getting the best of me here, but I’m writing the article so I’ll tip whomever I want to!

I know that Daryl Janmaat plays for Newcastle. I know they have been absolute crap in almost every game this season. I get it. But look at who they’ve had to play in their first eight: Sou/Swan/ManU/Ars/WHU/Wat/Chel/ManC. How many points would we really have expected them to take from that lot??? Even if Janmaat doesn’t keep a single clean sheet for the rest of the season he might pay you back because he is such an attacking threat and he currently costs only 4.9m! He should score a few goals and get 5-6 assists. Not bad considering he’s only in 2.8% of teams. Oh yeah, and their next 6 are: Norwich (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke (H),  Bournemouth (A),  Leicester (H) and Palace (A) . Looks like the type of run that could turn Newcastle’s season around. Janmaat could play a pivotal part if they do! Just be aware that he was flagged as having a knee injury but all indications are that Newcastle expect him to be fit for the weekend.

Alberto Moreno seems to have replaced Gomez in the Liverpool side for now but that’s up for debate with Klopp arriving. I think he fits Klopp’s style better then Gomez, so he should stay. At 4.7m and only a 1.5% ownership he is definitely worth a shot! He should thrive in the counterattacking style that should be employed by Klopp, so he has the potential to be attacking gold for the FPL manager who is willing to put a little faith in him. They play some good teams coming up, but that’s when the counterattack will work best.

[divider_1px]

Midfielders
[three_fourth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fourth]It is no secret that this international break has been a disaster for Man City, and thus almost every FPL manager. Yaya Toure’s earlier injury has been compounded with injuries to David Silva, Kun, and now Kolarov (although at the time of writing it is uncertain what this injury really is and how long he may be out). Kevin De Bruyne still only boasts an 11.6% ownership and he has exceeded the expectations of most. This makes him a huge shout as a differential and a must have for the City offense right now. If you need a cheaper second City mid you may want to take a gamble on Jesus Navas. With plenty of pace to beat most fullbacks, crosses from Navas (although often poor) may find a more likely destination for headed goals as Bony deputises for Kun. We would generally call City fixtures favorable, but their next four look especially nice: Bournemouth (H), Man United (A), Norwich (H), Aston Villa (A). Would be a shame for anyone to be without City attacking coverage for this run. Get KDB! Get KDB! Get KDB! Was that direct enough for us all?

In order to wrestle this article back from the clutches of a miserable week for City let’s look at some other midfield differential options.

First up, two boys from the south coast that have shown plenty of promise yet only ended up with streaky returns previously. Both have been integral to a Southampton team that has found form. Sadio Mané (7.9m with 7% ownership) and Dusan Tadic (7m with 5.9% ownership) both present excellent value for the money and just happen to offer great differential value as well. Thus far, Southampton has scored three times on three occasions, and twice on two occasions. They have scored 13 goals in 8 games, giving them a 1.6 goals per game average. When the team is scoring you can bank on one of these two to be at the center of the points. They have a very enticing next 5 fixtures: Leicester (H), Liverpool (A), Bournemouth (H), Sunderland (A), Stoke (H). Should be plenty of goals here! Mane would be preferred, but Tadic would suffice if short on cash and is on penalties to boot.

At 23.2% ownership Sanchez is not a differential, but of the consistent scorers from seasons past he is one of the few justifying his high price tag. If you don’t have him, get him. I digress though, as this is a differentials article. As such, let’s stick with Arsenal. Theo Walcott appears to have nailed down his desired position leading the attack, and he is rewarding Wenger for making what has seemed the obvious decision to most of us for a few years. At 8.6m with only a 4.5% ownership he seems to be one of the most obvious differential choices. In an Arsenal attack that typically puts plenty of points on the board this midfielder leading the line is a great choice. Their next eight games would be a great opportunity to double up on Arsenal attack!

[divider_1px]

Staying in North London, I’d like to give a shout out to Eriksen. I know that many would put him in the category with Lukaku of inconsistent and frustrating, and you would be right. But bear with me for a few lines as I try to convince you to follow me (once again) down the rabbit hole that is Christian Eriksen. He’s featured in five games: four starts and one appearance off the bench. He’s only gone the full 90 on three occasions. That math tells me he’s only played 362 minutes and yet he’s managed 2 goals, 3 assists, and 6 bonus, for a total of 33 points. That means he’s scoring 1 point every 11 minutes, which works out to an average of just over 8 points per 90 minutes! At 8.3m and with an ownership of only 3.8% there are differential points aplenty for the early adopters over their next ten fixtures! Or you could just remember that I am a Spurs fan and write me off.

[divider_1px]

They are out of favor, with good reason, but Newcastle have had a torrid set of fixtures to start the season. They have one player that has caught the eye on a number of occasions and impressed, which is really saying something having to put the rest of the lot on his shoulders and carry them. When they’ve clicked it’s been through Georginio Wijnaldum. At 6.8 and with an ownership of just 2.2% he could be a great option. If you favor a player who wil most likely remain under the radar even when scoring then Winny (yes, I think I just made that up) may be worth a shot as their next six fixtures more than make up for their first eight!

[divider_1px]

Forwards
As far as forwards go, there have been few consistently scoring options this season. Those who have been putting up the points have earner their way out of differential status and into a high percentage of FPL teams. The likes of Pelle, Martial, Lukaku, and Gomis are each in over 20% of teams. They are only bested by Kun, but not for long. As 33.8% of us search for a less-fragile replacement for the perennially injured one the names just listed will definitely be in the reckoning. But for those of you who already have two of the above mentioned or are just searching for an outside chance at picking up some less-possessed points I give you five forward differentials, in descending order based upon Teams Selected By percentage…

Finding Odion Ighalo in 11.1% of teams is no surprise, as he has been the ideal budget striker. Five goals in eight games has seen him far and away outstrip Deeney, whom many thought would be the Watford striker of choice. In fact, Ighalo is the only Watford player to have scored at all in the PL this season. At 5.3m he is still cheap and his 11% ownership let’s me continue to see him as a differential. This guys is a budget striker, but you would be justified in playing him against almost any opposition. Having Ighalo in your lineup gives you the opportunity for a strong midfield five and a great cheap 8th attacker! As mentioned above, his upcoming fixtures make him a great option alongside a couple of the more popular options.

Saido Berahino costs 6.2m and has an ownership of 7.8%, and is a proven goal scorer, having netted 14 PL goals last season. He has only scored twice this season in roughly 4.5 games (405 minutes). This isn’t exactly flying, but you may not realize that when he scores he almost always brings in bonus points as well. He brought in 21 bonus points last season and has already brought in 5 this season. This guy will likely score a consistent 5 points per game on average, with the occasional double-digit haul. He is a slightly different option to Ighalo as a third striker, but he will do a job for you over the course of the season. If you’re saving your WC for the next international break and just looking for a four week Kun replacement then he might be your guy as he squares up with Sunderland (H), Norwich (A), Leicester (H) and Man United (A). There are definitely goals in those first three.

[three_fourth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fourth]I hesitate to even mention this next potential jailbird felon / nice young man as who knows what will happen with his alleged assault and potential (alleged) threatening murder of a witness. (We’ve included his mugshot just to save the police a bit of time). I only bring up Diafra Sakho because West Ham have been playing out of their minds this season! With Payet drawing the eye of everyone in the stadium and supplying gorgeous passes it should not be a surprise that a good goal scorer like Sakho will benefit immensely! He is currently the joint 5th highest healthy striker in terms of FPL points, yet he only exists in 6.5% of teams. At 6.7m he is not as cheap as the aforementioned striker options, but WHU are a much better option going forward then WBA and Watford combined! If you don’t have Payet, then look no further than Sakho as your way into their attack. They’ve got a mixed bag of fixtures coming up, but they have already (incredibly!) won at the Emirates, Anfield, and the Etihad, so don’t let the fixture list scare you away!

At this point last season Diego Costa had scored 7 goals in his first 8 premier league games. No one would have thought him to be owned by only 5.4% of FPL teams. He has started the season with just one goal, one assist, and one suspension, leaving him on just 18 points (2.25/GW). After this torrid start there are many who are adamant not to put any trust in him. This is perfect for those of you looking to take a gamble, as Chelsea welcome Villa to Stamford Bridge. We keep waiting for Chelsea to actually show up, and this just might be the game for it. If they do end up clicking then Costa could have a break out performance. If you are crazy enough to captain him then you could see yourself on the serious rise. Do you dare???

Lastly, Daniel Sturridge, who is obviously a brilliant goal scorer when he is fit and getting a run in the side. The problem is that he has struggled for fitness since his transfer to Liverpool. He had an amazing season playing alongside Luis Suarez, but struggled since Suarez decided to ply his trade in Spain. He has scored two goals in 3 starts since his return to fitness, but they were both against Villa, so I don’t give him too much credit yet. There is also the uncertainty of a team in managerial transition, which could cause their performances to go either way. He is an ideal striker for a counter attack style, with pace to burn. He, like Costa, is a gamble that could pay off immensely as he gets back to full match sharpness. Liverpool have a tough run of games, but Sturridge is good enough to score against anyone. At 10.5m and with an ownership of only 4.8% is he going to be your Kun-placeholder?

Well, that’s it from me. Good luck patching up your squad after this injury-laden international break. #GreenArrowsForAll

[divider_1px]

Thanks for reading Differentials Explored Fantasy Football Game-week 9. This article was written by Pancho

Follow @zabeltweet

[divider_1px]

Speaking of differentials…
We came across a fun new FPL account on twitter by the name of Joe Ryan… Follow @JoeRyan365
Joe caught our eye with a few quirky and innovative FPL videos on YouTube and this one in particular caught our fancy and so we thought we’d share it with you. If it proves popular we hope to invite Joe back for a more regular slot. Let us know what you think…

[divider_1px_dashed]
[row][span6]

Vote on our Captain Poll Now

[/span6][span6]

Fixture Tracker

[/span6][/row]

[divider_1px]

FANTEAM.COM – FANTASY BETTING

It’s time for your fantasy manager job to finally pay off.
Gather your friends and foes and see who has the best strategic skills in fantasy football!