Double gameweek analysis Aston Villa and QPR
Nothing quite gets the fantasy juices flowing like a double gameweek. The opportunity to have the armband on a Giroud or a Sanchez, a Hazard or a Costa, is a wonderful feeling and leaves many managers eyeing up that elusive 100 club. Well, that’s all to come but this week we have possibly one of the drabbest doubles ever in prospect! We sincerely hope we are wrong but it’ll be a brave soul who chucks the kitchen sink at this one. Probably more like the odd cup or spoon. That said any player with two games in one week has to be considered, surely. Don’t they? The second double gameweek of the season may well be a sheep in wolf’s clothing but let’s go take a look at how we feel things shape up for both Villa and QPR this week and assess their potential for double points.
Aston Villa – Man United (a), QPR (h)
Game 1 – Manchester United (a)
Villa probably have the weaker claim of the two for your fantasy affections and that’s mainly down to the fact that their first game sees them having to travel to a suddenly revitalised Man United. We say revitalised but the truth is that their home stats, if not performances, have been consistent all season. They have the most home wins (12) and the joint most home goals (33) of any team in the league. United have only conceded 10 goals at home as well which is the same as Southampton and second only to Chelsea. By contrast Villa have the worst away goals record in the league with just 8 scored. And 4 of those were in one game! So that’s 4 away goals in the other 14 fixtures. And Benteke may be injured. Hmmm…
Game 2 – QPR (h)
So having established that unless they play Sunderland, Villa are pretty poor away from home let’s see if they fare any better at Villa Park ahead of the second game against QPR. Villa have won just 3 games at home out of 15 and only Sunderland themselves have won less. They are indeed the lowest scoring side at home with just 11 goals scored or 0.73 goals per game. Defensively, at home, they are rank average for a team in the bottom half of the table with 19 in the against column or 1.26 goals per game. All the other teams in the lower half range from 17 to 22 conceded so nothing exceptional here. If league tables were based on home points alone Villa would be in 18th place.
Of course things have changed slightly recently since Tim arrived with three wins on the bounce prior to last weekends home defeat to Swansea including a cup win against West Brom to send them to Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final. Their current league W/L record is – L, L, L, W, W, L. All in all it smacks of inconsistency but that’s only what you would expect from a team down in 16th place.
Line-ups
It’s always worth checking a teams previous line-ups just to be sure you aren’t about to burden yourself with a player who may have only been filling in temporarily. Here are Villa’s last 2 –
So, ignoring the formations above, their front 6 have been consistent and the only change has been at the back as Hutton returned from suspension to go straight back into the team with Lowton who deputised dropping out and Bacuna (who is listed as a midfielder in FPL) switching to left-back.
The players to watch
Brad Guzan £4.7m
Despite playing for a team in 16th place Guzan is actually the 9th highest scoring keeper in the game with 99 points to his name. He has 8 clean sheets and has made 91 saves which averages out at 3 a game so he’s good for a 1 point save bonus pretty much every game. That may be doubled against Man United though!
Scott Sinclair £5.2m
Since coming in on loan from Man City the former Swansea starlet has been eased back into the life of a footballer who actually plays football but looks to have earned a starting spot now. He scored against Stoke in his first full 90 minute appearance back in GW26 and should he get a run of games he could begin to replicate his Swansea form which saw him score 28 goals in 82 appearances for them before his big move to the Man City bench.
Gabriel Agbonlahor £5.3m
The fact that Gaby is Villa’s leading scorer on 6 goals probably tells you all you need to know about their attacking prowess this season. The good news is that 3 of those have come in the last 3 weeks which does at least point to a modicum of form as he hadn’t scored a league goal prior to that since the 24th of November. When he does score he tends to attract the bonus points too at an average of 2 per goal.
Christian Benteke £7.5m
At over £2m more than his strike partner the enigma that is Benteke has 5 goals to his name but also 2 assists unlike Gaby who has none. Similarly he has scored 3 in his last 3 with his last one prior to that also coming the wrong side of Christmas. It should be noted that he missed a good portion of the early season and actually only featured in 4 games prior to December, missing 9 through injury and suspension. On which note he hobbled off at the weekend with a hip injury so if you are considering him then you will need to check his availability ahead of GW31.
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QPR – West Brom (a), Aston Villa (a)
Game 1 – West Brom (a)
Let’s just get this one out of the way early doors – both of QPR’s games are away from home and their record reads 14 played, 13 defeats. Their only away victory coming at… yep, you guessed it, Sunderland. They go to West Brom first who have won their last 4 at home in all competitions, scoring 8 and not conceding a single goal in the process. Gulp! West Brom have scored 18 at home or 1.2 goals per game and have conceded 19 or 1.22 per game. QPR have scored just 10 on the road or 0.71 per game and conceded a whopping 32 or 2.28 per game. West Brom should score in this one and stats point to maybe a couple at least. QPR’s last 2 away games have been to similarly placed teams as West Brom in the shape of Crystal Palace and Hull and they lost them both 1-3 and 1-2 respectively. We think they can probably score at West Brom but it’ll likely be no more than the odd one and in another defeat at that.
Game 2 – Aston Villa (a)
So with Villa having scored the least at home and QPR the second least away (2nd only to Villa, ironically) it’s safe to say this one may not be a goal fest! They’ve managed just 21 goals between them in those 29 aforementioned games. You never know and they may just surprise us and go for it but with this one being a proverbial 6-pointer we expect it will be a tight, cagey, nervous affair.
If QPR don’t take something approaching 3-4 points from these 2 games you may as write that little ‘(r)’ in next to them already.
Line-ups
QPR’s last 2 line-ups –
Clearly boss Chris Ramsey is searching for a spark to ignite things by bringing in both Taarabt and Shaun Wright-Phillips against Palace and then trying his luck with Hoilett against Everton. It’s fair to say that none of the moves exactly worked and you wouldn’t go picking them up anyway. Sandro, Barton, Matty Phillips and Austin are your guaranteed starters out of the offensive players whilst at the back Green, Caulker , Isla and Yun should start while Onuoha has started the last 3.
The players to watch
Robert Green – £4.5m
Green is just 9 points behind fellow keeper Guzan with 90 to his name and boasts an even more impressive 106 saves in 29 appearances or 3.65 per game but that’s hardly surprising when you play for a team who have conceded 54 goals, the worst record in the league, 6 worse than bottom club Leicester even. As we have said they’ll probably concede in both games but there’s an outside chance of keeping Villa at bay if it’s a tight game and if nothing else he will get you a few save bonuses. He’s 27 points ahead of the next best QPR defensive option which is Caulker on 63 points.
Matthew Phillips – £4.6m
Phillips was cast into the wilderness under Harry Redknapp but has now started the last 7 games notching a handy 31 points or 4.4 per game. For a £4.6m punt you wouldn’t be overly disappointed if he returned something around those figures for you in both games. In fact he’s got 4 assists and a goal in his last 6 and counting only those his average nudges up to 4.8 per game. Yeah ok, we’re clutching at straws a bit here but when Joey Barton is your alternative (34 points, 8 yellows, a red, 0 goals and 1 assist) we’d rather buy a lump of wood.
Charlie Austin – £6.4m
With 140 points so far Austin is just 1 point behind Costa and 8 behind Aguero and you can literally buy 2 Charlie’s for the price of one Sergio. If only. QPR have scored 31 goals and he’s had a hand in 20 of them with 15 goals and 5 assists. Clearly if QPR are going to score then he’s more than likely going to be involved. Oh and he’s on penalties too. And wins most of those himself. And makes the tea. And irons the kits.
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Other dates for your diary… DGW’s and blanks
GW33 – If you do decide to pick up any Villa or QPR ‘stars’ then please be aware of the fact that they both have a blank in two weeks time in GW33 along with Arsenal and Sunderland so check your numbers before jumping in.
The 4 teams who have a blank game-week in 33 are –
Arsenal
Aston Villa
QPR
Sunderland
Liverpool and Hull will also both miss out on GW33 should Liverpool win their FA Cup replay with Blackburn on the 8th April.
GW34 – The next confirmed DGW sees both Leicester and Chelsea feature twice –
Leicester play Burnley (a) & Chelsea (h)
Chelsea play Arsenal (a) & Leicester (a)
GW37 – Arsenal and Sunderland go into the penultimate game-week of the season with a double –
Arsenal play Man United (a) & Sunderland (h)
Sunderland play Leicester (h) & Arsenal (a)
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Fixtures Overview
To give you a fuller visual on how the land lies for all the teams involved in both the doubles and the blanks here is our usual fixture tracker…
We have colour coded the fixtures in a simple fashion to allow you to judge your transfer and team selection plans accordingly:
[highlight_blue]Blue[/highlight_blue] – These teams have either a double or a blank game-week to consider.
[highlight_green]Green[/highlight_green] – We deem these to be winnable fixtures for the given team and should, in theory at least (!), harvest good fantasy points for you in the opening games. Aim to have a good nucleus of these players in your squad.
[highlight_yellow]Yellow[/highlight_yellow] – These are the fixtures that could go either way and do not stand out as being either particularly good or poor. If you have a player from a team in this category then do not be afraid to play them but take a considered view that it may or may not not be an explosive week for them.
[highlight_red]Red[/highlight_red]- These are the teams that we consider to have a difficult fixture and as such may be best avoided from a fantasy perspective. Aim to minimise any players that have a run of reds in the opening games.
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OK guys, we are coming to that part of the season, where i say look out for my e mail, if you wish to take part in Season IV , well this time i asking for you to e-mail me banterburyleagues@gmail.com, so i can tick you of my list, with well over 200 members, and at least 2 hours a week, free time spent on leagues a week, please help me out,
So again if your a member of @banterburyH2H leagues, and wish to confirm your place for next season
E-Mail banterburyleagues@gmail.com
Morning guys,
looking at the fixtures would you play Krul in goal or bring in Myhill and play him for the next 2?
If you really have no other transfers to make or need to save it for any kind of plan leading up to the blank in 33 or double in 34, obviously on paper Myhill is the better play.
Or if Forster is ruled out for the season how about Davis ?? Southampton have better long term fixtures.
cheers guys
yeah I thought of Davis too in light of Forsters injury, I think a better prospect for the long run
As it stands now my team for gw 33 will have PVA, Santi and Giroud all blanking, so i’ll be looking to address that prior to that gw.
Krul looks okay for this week. Sunderland are really struggling to score recently.
Hello managers,
Had a good week raking in 96 points. Wouldve crossed the 100 mark had it not been for an unnecessary transfer.
Looking for insights heading into the next GW. Looking to stick to the same team. But open to transfers
1 FT and 0 mil itb
Hey Doc, nice scoring mate! Team looks great – without doubt I would hold that transfer – having 2fts at this stage of the season with DGWs and blank GWs coming up is invaluable.
Thanks mate. Guess il hafta wait and watch like everyone. Oh how long a wait it is ????
same team as me Doc, the only difference is I don’t have Terry!
The main concern coming up is both Arsenal players will blank gw33 and then face Chelsea in gw34, Liverpool look to have strong fixtures if you’re looking for replacements.
Well then it looks like I’m gonna be following you the rest of the season photek ????
I’m hoping to transfer out Caz Next week and hold onto Giroud till just before GW 33. Probably bring in Costa?
Liverpool I’d stick with attacking options as long as Skrtel is out. Coutinho very high on that list.
it looks that way
yeah Coutinho high on my list too, I want some Liverpool cover after the Arsenal game.
Giroud in good form atm so i’ll be holding him for now with a view to switch to Costa if he recovers fine from his latest set back.
Clearly our teams aren’t gonna vary much for a while photek. Seem to be leaning towards the same transfers upto GW 34. I’m guessing you’d try to bring in Terry by then somehow too ????. Which would be the cherry on top
Full house. Cant argue with keeping the FT here.
@NIN: Hard to argue there. At first glance team looks good. But I’m oh so tempted to bring in Austin for Giroud. Just for the 1 week. Or maybe that’s me being a bit too randy considering I have no injuries or suspension. Touch wood. Then again Giroud at home vs a Skrtl-less Liverpool…… Decisions, decisions!!!
Randy? Skirt-less? Yeah, Giroud tends to have that effect on people. Just ask inittowinit 😉
Haha. Glad to know it’s not just me ???? Then again, 9 goals in 10 games would do that to many ????
sorry about the excessive “???” Suffixes… Keypad has grown a mind of it’s own
Haha, that’ll be Giroud too
Hahahaaaaa
In light of Skrtel looking like a 3 game ban is coming, anyone think Kolo could be worth a punt for Liverpool? They have some good fixtures coming up after the Arsenal game
Bit to risky at this stage of the season, for me. I’d actually expect Lovren to take his place back so if Kolo does get game time it may not even be the full three games.
cheers Nin you’re probably right looking at both players minutes, Kolo has hardly featured for weeks and Lovern had played 3 before he got injured I assume.
Just batting around some ides.
*Lovren and ideas
doh!
Indeed. No harm in looking for a differential, but Toure is probably a bit too far of a stretch. Limited GW’s now so every transfer must be for a nailed on starter, and be for good reason. I considered Skrtel recently, but without him i’m not sure how this three-man defence will be. Could be well dodgy.
Truly. I would avoid Liverpool defenders for now. No matter how inviting their fixtures after Arsenal. Until Skrtl is back of course ????
I make you right mate, he will be a miss for them and although I expect them to win the games (after Arsenal) perhaps not with a CS. I’ll go for attacking options and go with form.
Coutinho is playing well and is a name in my mind, maybe a straight swap for Santi after the Burnley game.
Keep that potential blank week in mind too. Liverpool’s cup game is April 8th, if memory serves me right.
Clearly goes to show that there no point planning any of this!!!!! ????
Fffffffffuuuuuuuuuu………..
Hey guys, how’s it going? I feel like it’s way too early to make any concrete transfer plans, but I wanted to thank Init for this fantastic DGW article. Holy hell, this thing is packed- well done my friend! Don’t think I’m going to grab any Villa or QPR players though as I’ll only have to shift them right back out, and there are better DGWs on the horizon to plan for imo. Basic plans right now are to hold my FT and do Bellerin and Sanchez out for maybe Clyne and a 9.7 mid next GW. What are you guys thinking about?
Hey Red, how’s it going mate? They seem like sound transfers. I have a muddled head, but plan an aggressive attacking strategy to every gameweek until the end now. Hits, yeah baby !
Solid move there mate. I’d get rid of Alexis Asap though. Maybe Coutinho could be your next midfielder. I’d hold onto Sanchez only if I’m gonna bring in a liverpool player. Else I’d probably get him out this week.
Hey Cookie and Doc, things are going well here. How are things with you guys? I actually could do the Sanchez move this week as he’ll fund the Clyne upgrade, I just can’t do it the other way around. Haven’t really looked at the fixtures carefully for a midfielder yet, but Coutinho is an interesting pick for a Liverpool player Doc, as is Hendo. Mata looked great last week but has City and Chelsea up next after Villa which isn’t overly appealing.
If you looking at Liverpool players, I’d wait this week. Next 3 fix are great
Mata would be a 1 week transfer for me.
Maybe get in Hazard if you don’t have him?
Thanks Doc, I appreciate it. I actually do have Hazard already. Here’s what I’m working with if you have a minute to check it out. Need to shift 2 blank players before GW33 (most likely Sanchez and Bellerin) and plan to bring in Myhill for Mannone as well.
Pantsu Mannone
Terry Dawson Bellerin Bertrand PvA
Hazard Silva Sanchez Eriksen Ki Sung-Yueng
Giroud Kane Aguero
.3 in the bank
GW 31: I’d get in Myhill this week for the next 2 Gws. Potential CS.
GW 32: Alexis can stay a week vs Liverpool. But he goes out the week after for Coutinho. He’s the stand out choice for the 3 GWs if you ask me. But Liverpool have a Cup fixture on April 8th (hafta watch out for that)
Giroud stays in till the blank GW. Most likely will bring in costa then if not earlier depending on Girouds and Costas form at the time.
And by my rough calculations you should be left with 0.2 mil itb which should correct for inflation in the next 3 weeks hopefully ????
And Bellerin goes out along with Sanchez for Clyne when Southhampton play Hull n Stoke
And Bellerin goes out along with Sanchez for Clyne when Southhampton play Hull n Stoke. It’s a -4 hit. But Southhampton have a CS opportunity that week. So you could take it
Doc, that’s some great advice mate thank you. I hadn’t actually considered doing the Myhill move yet, so that’s something I will definitely think about, especially now that Dawson won’t be involved next gw. I like the Coutinho idea too, would like to get a differential player in for Sanchez to hopefully gain some ground and nobody in my ML has him.
Cheers mate. Hope Coutinho grabs points for all our sakes. I’m trailing by 15 in my mini league having trailed the entire season with almost a 100 point gap 😛
Hey Cookie, how’d the transfers work out last week mate? Did you make up any ground in your ML? I’m still chasing by 64 points in mine but the leader is ranked 3793 in the world and I’ve been on a good run. Don’t want to blow up my whole season by going crazy taking risks trying to catch him really. There’s no money on the line so beating my best overall rank is more important to me than winning this ML, ya know?
Yeah I completely understand that Red. i’ve had a bit of a shocker so ranking not that important, just going all out!! Toby and Costa did me proud. Will wait on Costa’s injury news before my next plan of attack – made up 28pts last week and I think this “care free attitude” may be the way to go !!
Nice one, I love it Cookie!! 28 points is a huge swing, make this guy sweat it out until the final week. Kinda reminds me of that Tyler Durden quote from Fight Club: “It’s only after we’ve lost everything that we’re free to do anything…” Haha, good luck man hope you keep gaining on him!
https://wordsofwhit.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/11437_196924843534_424739_n1.jpg
Hey Red, liking the comparison to Brad Pitt, man! haha
We’ll see how it goes, hoping he’ll be more focused on the guy in second and won’t notice the sneaky little git creeping up from further back !!
Sneaky little git.. Hahaha, love it. 28 points is a good chunk anyway. You can do it, Cookie.
Unlikely NIN, but i’ll give it a go and have a ball trying! Treating every gameweek as a one off!
It can be done. I’ve mentioned it on here before, but a few seasons ago a mate of mine played it like that and very nearly clawed back a 200 point deficit. Granted, it was over a longer period than you have, but it shows what can be done with well timed/planned hits.
Yeah it can be done, needs a fair amount of luck and some inspired capo choices. A 200pt lead is a proper chasedown!!
Yep. Cappo choices are key. Hazard is damn tempting next GW. Only bad thing is Belgium play in Israel on the 31st, so that’s a fair trek back to England.
Not that long a flight, it’s only just past Greece. And on a bit !
I suppose, when you put it like that. Him or Kane for me this week.
Hi Red. How have you been? Any more skiing days?
Certainly too early to make any moves, but your proposed ones seem fairly sound to me. Personally, i’ve had enough of Sanchez now so i’m going to get him out for next GW. Leaning toward Mata now as a differential, and also because United finally look like a team! It only took 29 GW’s
Hey NIN, how’s the new job going mate? Went skiing last week but have other projects around the house I’ve gotta get to this week. Hoping to get up there a couple more times before the season is over though! What are your thoughts on Mata’s playing time and the fact that United have City and Chelsea next after Villa? That puts me off a bit tbh. I have 9.7 to spend on a mid though so there should be some decent options, just haven’t studied the fixtures all that carefully yet. Anyone else you’re considering besides Mata?
Nice one. I’ve never been skiing before but would love to give it a whirl. Knowing me, i’d probably plant myself into the nearest tree, but hey, still love to give it a go. Job is going good, thanks. Hours are minimal as i’m getting hopped around a lot and have to do training for a lot of places so it’ll hopefully pick up over the next couple of weeks. I’m confident Mata keeps his place. He was excellent against Liverpool so that says to me that he’s up for it and will stay in the team. Cant see Di Maria getting a start unless there’s an injury. The City game doesn’t worry me at all. They’re on a wobble the last while and we’ve just beaten Spurs and Liverpool 5-1, combined. Chelsea, on the other hand, is likely a defeat for us. The other two i considered are Mane and Henderson. Potential blank week puts me off Henderson, but Mane could be a great shout.
Well, you’ve got your foot in the door now which is the hard part done! Hours should pick up once you’ve got your training done.
Yeah, Mata looked great on Sunday and would be a great end of season differential if he keeps his place and form. BTW, how awesome were the darts last week?? Good to see Bunting starting to play better and the RvB v Taylor match was great. Only problem from watching this season is realizing how absolute crap I am when I throw at home on my board. Never realized how good those guys actually were!
Precisely. Just have to grin and bear it for a while as there are a ton of places to work so plenty of training days. Pain in the arse but it has to be done. Those are my exact thoughts on Mata. Only dead teams have him and with all these blanks and doubles ahead, he may not get bought by many either. He may be my last throw of the dice in the search for a top 1k spot. Yeah the darts is absolutely brilliant this year. Love the Premier League. The lads are unreal.
Mata just for this week?
Since I’m thinking of Caz to Mata but dunno if I’d hold onto him beyond that.
Dunno if it’s a sideways move just for a week.
No, once form stays good i’d look to keep him. It’s not that long ago that he was an FPL god. If we can keep him going then he’s a massively advantageous differential.
Nin are you not worried about Man U’s next fixtures, Manchester derby and Chelsea away?
Looks like everyone wants Mata but can’t seem to get past the fact that it’s City and Chelsea thereafter. I guess it’s hard to accept the fact that United may be 2nd if they win the next 3
The question is, Doest it Mata?
The last 10 Derby’s have produced 36 goals, so not worried about that one at all. Chelsea game could be a dud, though.
Well more than the stats its LvGs mood that matters I guess. Might decide to bench Mata outta the blue
For who? Certainly not Di maria or Januzaj, anyway. We’ve just battered two close rivals, so the team stays as is, for me.
Haven’t made the transfer yet. Way too early, plus i have pretty much no bench should anything go tits up.
This is LVG we’re talking about, 2 good wins and he’ll still change the team lool
I hope United stay up too. Last 2 years been hard as a United fan
Hearing reports that Costa will be ok for GW31 vs Stoke, but will miss Spanish internationals. Perfect.
Didja make the transfer already NIN?
Nice one Cookie. I like that too. Hoping to bring him in a few weeks.