Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 11

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Ahoy there, everybody. Once again, I’ve been given the honor of guiding you through this week’s most appealing captaincy options. As is the case most weeks, the captaincy tour’s first stop is Peps Wild Rotational Ride, before moving on to more predictable pastures. It’s time to have a look at this week’s captaincy candidates. Welcome to Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 11.

Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Aguero – Southampton (H)

As always, no captaincy article is complete without a visit to the Pep Roulette. And, as always, predicting who’ll feel the wrath of Peps rotational fetish is nigh on impossible, especially considering that City’s League Cup matchup with Southampton that saw Kun complete 90 mins and Jesus 87. Go figure that one out for yourselves ahead of the weekend.

Raheem Sterling has bounced back from what was a three-game lull in Gameweek 4-6 with some tremendous performances, including a Champions League quintuple return against Atalanta. Raz sits atop the expected points ranking for the last four Gameweeks (30.5 expected points), as well as being the player with the highest number of big chances (12) and most shots fired from within the opponent’s box (30). Sterling looks to be in terrific form and will be facing a team desperate to regain some confidence. For me, he is this week’s premier captaincy option.

Not far behind is Kevin De Bruyne. Manchester City’s Belgian Maestro has unequivocally been the leagues most creative player, leading the league in big chances created (10), key passes (34), total crosses (77) and successful crosses (27). De Bruyne is involved in almost everything City creates and looks like a captaincy pick with a safe “floor”. His home form has been especially impressive, returning 11, 13 and 17 points prior to last weekends win over Aston Villa, in which he was the smallest of Silva touches away from a 9-pointer.

Sergio Agüero needs no further introduction. In a world where Gabriel Jesus followed his secret dream of becoming a NASCAR racer, Agüero would be the premier captaincy option week in and week out. Alas, and to the dismay of the 26.4% who own the Argentine striker, we do not live in such a world. Agüero has been benched in three of the last four Gameweeks, playing 128 out of a total 360 minutes. Tuesdays League Cup game against Southampton didn’t really provide us with any more information or clues, it rather just clouded the issue. Sterling through the middle on his own anyone?!

Mo Salah, Sadio Mane – Aston Villa (a)

Both Mohammed Salah and Sadio Mane will be popular captaincy options in Gameweek 11. As well they should be. Mo Salah is currently leading the league in xG (6.59), and both Salah and Mane find themselves among the top four in expected points. Oftentimes, the question is which one of them to choose. Based purely off underlying stats, Salah should be considered the better pick. The issue with that approach is Mane having returned more points on the season, and Mane having shown a sustained ability to outperform the same underlying stats.

This week, Liverpool are traveling to Birmingham. Aston Villa have proven defensively stout at home and should put up a decent fight.

Tammy Abraham – Watford (a)

Irrespective of team allegiance, Frank Lampards Chelsea team has been a sorely needed positive surprise in what has so far been an unVARably wretched FPL-season. Mason Mount, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Fikayo Tomori have all looked like viable FPL options, but the star that has shone the brightest so far is Tammy Abraham. Despite cooling off a bit and only scoring once in the last four games, Abraham remains among the league’s top three in xG (6.06), big chances (11) and shots within the opponent’s box (26). Statistically, the striker looks a sound candidate for the armband. But what really draws my eye to Abrahams captaincy potential is Chelsea’s away form this season. With the exception of what was an unflattering result in the season opener at Old Trafford, The Pensioners have averaged 4 goals per away game so far. Tammy and his compatriots will surely be looking to build on this momentum when they make the short trip across London to Vicarage Road, where a defensively rejuvenated Watford will be waiting. Following what was an unfortunate 8-0 defeat at the Etihad, The Hornets appear to have found some defensive solidity. Since Gameweek 7, Watford have allowed joint second fewest big chances and third fewest shots from within their own box. Saturday’s matchup is therefore a collision between Watford’s newfound defensive prowess and Chelsea traveling explosivity.

Jamie Vardy – Crystal Palace (a)

Three goals and an assist. One of which came on a penalty, with the absolute last kick of the ball. Vardy owners probably couldn’t believe their eyes Friday night, and some just might be tempted to give PartyVardy the armband in Gameweek 11. Now, chances are Leicester won’t be able to replicate their 9-0 win over Southampton when they travel to Selhurst Park. But it is worth mentioning that Palace have struggled defensively at home this season. Statistically, these struggles have amplified as the season has progressed, with Palace finding themselves allowing second most shots from within their own box and third most big chances through the last two home games.

As for Jamie Vardy, you can accuse him of many things (same goes for his wife by the way. Boom, roasted), but him being a statistically sound choice is not one of them. Vardy is commonly referred to as a “statbuster”, and him sitting atop the Premier League goalscoring charts with 8 goals from 10 big chances and 12 shots on target certainly supports that. In short, Vardy is a proven goal scorer (closing in on his 100th Premier League goal) facing opposition that should allow opportunities. At the same time, he is a low volume finisher, meaning you are depending on him taking advantage of those opportunities. It’s also worth keeping in mind that Leicester were a bottom five attacking side prior to them giving Southampton a new version of Black Friday. It remains to be seen whether we can expect a sustained attacking improvement from the Foxes.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexandre Lacazette – Wolves (H)

The Gabonese International started the year brilliantly, returning in each of the first seven games of the season. From Gameweek 8 onwards however, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has failed to return at all. Facing Bournemouth (H), Sheffield United (a) and Crystal Palace (H), Aubameyang has managed a total of 7 shots. The striker has 1 shot on target, 3 shots from inside the opponent’s box, and 1 big chance. These numbers are disappointing, but it gets worse. Aubameyang only touched the ball 23 times in the Palace game, fewest of every starter in that game. Only 1 of those touches were inside the Palace box. Of course, neither of his 2 shots of the game came from within the box. Now, I’m not going to spend column inches speculating on whether Aubameyangs lack of involvement is a result of Alexandre Lacazette’s return to the central striker slot. Aubameyangs form seems to have declined over the last three games, which should concern his owners. Lacazette, on the other hand, returned to the starting fold with an assist and 5 shots from within Palace’ box. Arsenal manager Unai Emery has shown a propensity to prefer the Frenchman as the central striker in his set up, pushing Aubameyang out on the wing. It is notoriously difficult to predict what Emery might do any given week, but Lacazette being given another start as the central striker might make him the better captaincy option of the two.

Wolves, their Gameweek 11 opponent, seem to be closing in on last years magnificent form (something that should worry Arsenal fans, seeing as how they were held without a win against Wolves last season). It’s worth mentioning that Wolves captain Willy Boly is missing due to injury. On paper, Arsenal should be clear favorites going into this fixture. However, the two teams appear to be on different form trajectories, making me sceptical of trusting an Arsenal asset this week.

Heung-Min Son, Harry Kane – Everton (a)

Korean Superstar Heung-Min Son has been looking like Spurs best player in pretty much every game he’s played this season. Son was the main proponent of attacking output in the loss at Anfield, and he immediately ignited a tame Spurs side in the Gameweek 9 draw at home to Watford. Stat wise, neither Son nor Spurs are much to write home about. Through the last three Gameweeks, only Newcastle and Sheffield United have created fewer big chances (2) than Spurs 3, and the same two teams are the only ones in the league with a worse xG than Spurs. Both Son and Harry Kane have suffered from Spurs’ spell of lethargy, posting 1 big chance each since Gameweek 8 kicked off. Kane has looked a bit off his mercurial self this season, and his underlying stats do not give any indications of that changing.

One thing that just might contribute to kickstarting the Spurs attack is facing Everton. Spurs have scored 18 times in their last five games against Everton, with last seasons 6-2 shellacking at Goodison Park serving as the brightest memory of attacking days gone by. Bold managers might just gamble on Spurs rediscovering their groove in their return to the blue side of Stanley Park.

Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford– Bournemouth (a)

In my captaincy article for last season’s DGW35 I wrote about the inherent difficulty of predicting how Manchester United, and their FPL assets, would perform in any given week. In my most recent captaincy article I pointed out that little appeared to have changed at Old Trafford, seeing as how we couldn’t even predict who the designated penalty taker is. My question now is, has anything change at all?

Starting his first league game back from injury, Anthony Martial joined Marcus Rashford to spearhead a Manchester United attack that had only mustered 7 goals in the 8 league games following their opening day triumph over Chelsea. It proved to be an eventful evening at Carrow Road, as the tandem went on to become the first pair of players from the same team to have missed a penalty and scored a goal in the same match. Along with Jamie Vardy, Martial and Rashford sit atop of the xG rankings for Gameweek 10, although those number should be viewed with a bit of Norwich context (meaning that stats aggregated facing a team without a defense should be taken lightly). Nevertheless, Martial racking up 4 big chances in one game is worth noticing. He looks to be United most dangerous player when utilized as a number 9, and I expect him to score a few goals in the coming weeks.
This week, United are facing a Bournemouth side who’ve suddenly decided that defending is worthwhile. I’m not sure what spirit possessed Eddie Howe prior to Gameweek 8, but the Cherries find themselves atop of the expected goals conceded rankings for Gameweek 8-10. Trusting Bournemouth to continue a trend is usually a fruitless pursuit, but with Uniteds notorious lack of attacking oomphf, they just might win out.

Conclusion:
As always, doing the research for these articles has been a pleasure. And, as always, I struggle to identify one clear-cut captaincy pick. This week, my vote goes to Raheem Sterling, with Kevin De Bruyne nibbling at his heel. To wrap up the article, here is my ranking of this week’s options:

– Raheem Sterling – Southampton (H)
– Kevin De Bruyne – Southampton (H)
– Sergio Aguero – Southampton (H)
– Mohammed Salah (if available) – Aston Villa (a)
– Sadio Mane – Aston Villa (a)
– Tammy Abraham – Watford (a)
– Jamie Vardy – Crystal Palace (a)
– Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Wolves (H)
– Heung-Min Son – Everton (a)
– Anthony Martial – Bournemouth (a)
– Alexandre Lacazette – Wolves (H)
– Harry Kane – Everton (a)
– Marcus Rashford – Bournemouth (a)

Best of luck in Gameweek 11, everybody!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 11. This article was written by ThePeleOfMissionary.

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