Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13
Welcome to Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13. Twelve weeks of moving our captain’s armband between the home fixtures of Aguero and Salah with the occasional Hazard pick thrown in for good measure, we’ve had it easy. If not for my ill-fated Kane punt in GW8 I’d have a 100% captain success rate, I suspect I’m not alone.
Well, I’m afraid such simplicity comes to a shuddering halt in what will undoubtedly be an unlucky for some GW13. With the three aforementioned go-to picks all playing away from home this week, we have a situation where there is no clear favourite. We may have to actually take some risks this week. Shudder.
In my opinion, weeks like this are what make this game so compelling; pick the right man and you could make up serious ground or put some distance between you and your mini-league rivals. You could of course just as easily get it completely wrong, but we don’t want to talk about that right?
I’ve decided (as seems to be the new ‘norm’ these days) to do this week’s picks slightly differently. There is a propensity in FPL to only give your armband to high-value players; back in the Leicester City title winning season it always felt slightly wrong to consistently captain players with a sub £6.5m value, not much has changed in the intervening seasons. There will still be plenty of people sticking with the devil they know, because believe it or not, not everyone takes this game as seriously as you do.
So given that Salah, Aguero and Hazard will still have plenty of the less committed (obsessed) FPL manager more than happy stick with them this week, I’ve looked at their stats and prospects of all three players and present them below, so that if you do decide to play it ‘safe’ you’ll know which one is your best bet. I’ll then present the best alternatives for those of you who like to live life on the edge.
Better the devil you know
Mo Salah – Watford (A)
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates after scoring the opening goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Fulham FC. (Photo by John Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)
Lets start with the simple stuff, of his (5) goals thus far this season only 1 has come away from Anfield and that was against Huddersfield, and although he has an equal number of assists both home and away (2) his overall points tally shows that only (25) of his (67) points have come on the road.
Rosco rating: 2 stars
Sometimes we have to scratch beneath the surface to get a better indication of how a player is performing. Away from home Salah still tops the table for Penalty area touches (46), joint top with Harry Kane for goal attempts (25) and only Riyad Mahrez has had more than his (7) shots on target.
Rosco rating: 3 stars
How have Liverpool performed from an attacking perspective on their travels? Pretty well actually; in their 6 away fixtures, only Spurs (18) have more points on the road than the 14 registered by the Reds, where they have also scored a respectable 9 times, a tally bettered by only 4 other teams. Indeed, a quick look at their underlying stats shows that only Chelsea (and Tottenham) have had more than their 80 goals attempts, although it should be noted that Chelsea (5) have played one less away match and Spurs two more (8).
Rosco rating: 3 stars
Their opponents this week have won 4 of their 6 home fixtures this season, the good news is that they’ve conceded 8 goals in those matches and only kept a clean sheet twice. Looking at their underlying stats will show however that they are one of the better teams defensively; 58 shots conceded, a total bettered by only 7 other teams.
Rosco rating: 2 stars
In summary, Salah is having a lot of attempts, will this translate to goals and assists? It hasn’t thus far but that doesn’t mean it won’t.
Overall rating: 10/12
Sergio Aguero – West Ham (A)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Sergio Aguero does not perform away from home it would appear. Only 1 of his 7 goals and 0 of his 6 assists have come away from the Etihad. He also rarely plays a full 90 on the road; GW3 being the last time he did so. All this leads to a total of just 13 of his (73)pts notched on his travels.
Rosco rating:1 star
However, like Salah his underlying stats are encouraging. Only Kane and Wilson can boast more than Aguero’s 32 penalty area touches in his away fixtures, he also sits third in the forward table for goal attempts (16) and second for shots on target (7).
Rosco rating: 2 stars
Manchester City are devastating at home. They’ve swept everyone aside scoring (24) goals in the process. Away from home, however, these stats have naturally regressed; 9 goals coming across their 5 fixtures, winning 3 and drawing 2. Their underlying stats show that they may not be scoring for fun, but with 75 goal attempts, they’re hardly shot shy.
Rosco rating: 2 star
Its just 2 wins in 6 at home for West Ham this season where they have conceded 7 goals, and although the 69 shots they’ve conceded at the London stadium is not the worst in the league (Burnley have conceded 92 as a comparison), they have only kept a single clean sheet in their 6 matches.
Rosco rating: 3 stars
In summary, Aguero has struggled to score on the road all season and he’s not helped by his many an early withdrawl, some will point to how much damage he is capable of, which is true, but as yet he’s kept such antics for the Etihad.
Rosco rating: 8/12
Eden Hazard – Spurs (A)
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Eden Hazard of Chelsea FC during the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and Everton FC. (Photo by Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images)]]
He’s played one away game less than Kun and two less than Salah, but still has more points to show for it thus far; 29 of his 82 total points. With just 2 of his 7 goals and 2 of his 4 assists coming on his travels he has only performed marginally better than Salah, however, he has something the other two don’t – a double-digit haul away from Stamford Bridge; 14pts scored against Southampton in GW8.
Rosco rating: 3 stars
Without wanting to flog a dead horse, it’s worth pointing out again that Hazard has played significantly fewer minutes than both Salah (212 minutes less) and Aguero (83 minutes less) have away from home this season. Despite this, his underlying stats compare favourably, with only four players bettering his penalty area touches (30) and goal attempts (13).
Rosco rating: 2 star
Chelsea’s away form is arguably better than their home form this season. They’ve picked up 13 out of a possible 15pts, scored 12 and conceded just a solitary goal. Their good form is no fluke, a quick look at their underlying stats shows that only Spurs (who have played 3 additional away fixtures) have had more than the 92 goal attempts registered by Maurizio Sarri’s men.
Rosco rating: 3 stars
Chelsea face arguably the most difficult fixture of the three teams, at least at first glance. Spurs current league position is largely thanks to their away form, at ‘home’ they have played just 4 games this season as they wait on the completion of their shiny new stadium. In those 4 fixtures, they’ve won 2 and lost 2 (Liverpool and Man City) and have kept just a single clean sheet.
Rosco rating:1 star
In summary, Hazard has out-performed both his rivals this season despite playing fewer minutes. He has shown he’s capable of a double-digit haul away from Stamford Bridge but has only done so against significantly inferior opposition by comparison to the team he faces this game-week.
Rosco rating: 9/12
Well, that took longer than I’d anticipated! In conclusion, if you are going to stick with one of the usual picks, then Salah looks to be the safer of the three. However, if you’re feeling frisky I have a few more options up my sleeve who may just be a better bet.
Fortune favours the brave
Anthony Martial – Crystal Palace (H)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Anthony Martial of Manchester United. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
Anthony Martial looked set to be an Old Trafford favourite under Louis Van Gaal but he’s spent two years struggling with inconsistent form, not helped by his gaffers hard-line approach. Mourinho has apparently decided to soften his approach to the Frenchman and given that he’s pretty much single-handily kept him in employment in recent weeks that’s no real surprise.
When a player posts the kind of numbers like Martial has in recent weeks, its prudent to check if he’s simply over-performing, in his last four game-weeks he’s fourth for both penalty area touches (28) and goal attempts (12) and top of the pile shots on target (8). I’ve read a few articles in the last few days that point to a huge over-performance in terms of his xG90 (expected goals per 90). I don’t really want to get into xG as it’s a big old can of worms, but it should be noted that he’s over-performing by around 145%.
Will he remain the focal point of Man Utd’s attack? Will his point tally regress to a level that will satisfy the xG worshippers? Your guess is as good as mine. What I do know is that the Frenchman is in red-hot form; 6 goals, an assist and 11BPS in his last 5 matches. That’s a whopping 54pts for those who have him, and there’s not many (just 12.1%). If you don’t own him then perhaps consider bringing him in, and heck why not throw him the armband while you’re at it.
Richarlison – Cardiff (H)
LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Richarlison of Everton during the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and Everton FC. (Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Getty Images)
A lot has been written about Everton’s Brazilian winger-come-forward this season and we’re only 12 games in. In the summer it was all about his transfer fee, Sky Sports pundit and all round dip-sh!t Paul Merson claimed his transfer hurt the summer transfer market, and whilst it was a lot of money there’s every chance that come the end of the season, he’ll have made a mockery of said pundits blathering nonsense.
Prior to GW11, Marco Silva’s decision to convert Richarlison into a centre-forward was starting to look like a bad decision, and then he popped up with two goals and a 15pts haul, a bitter pill to swallow for those who ditched him (following his red card) and had not yet brought him back into the fold (that’ll be me then).
Cardiff come into the match yet to pick up a win away from the imaginatively named Cardiff City stadium. Its 4 defeats and a draw with just 2 goals scored and 11 conceded. The Bluebirds sit third from bottom as they head into GW13, I can’t imagine they’ll drag themselves out of the relegation drop-zone this coming game-week.
Callum Wilson – Arsenal (H)
BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 03: Callum Wilson of Bournemouth applauds at the end of his sides 2-1 defeat during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester United. (Photo by AFC Bournemouth/AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images)
Callum Wilson and his Bournemouth team have been one of this season’s surprise packages. He deservedly won his first England cap last week and duly responded with a debut goal, add that to the 6 league goals he’s already plundered this season. Wilson is not all about goals, he also sits top of the table for assists (7) and with two double-digit hauls already this season perhaps we should start considering him a genuine shout for the captain’s armband?
Anyone fancy an Arsenal defender? No, me either. They were once renowned for their defensive qualities, but this season their defence has looked a mess. They’ve only lost once away from the Emirates, but alarmingly they’ve failed to keep a single clean sheet, all the more concerning when you consider that two of their five away fixtures were Cardiff and Fulham. Arsenal have failed to win in their last two visits to the Vitality stadium and conceded 5 goals across those two game; Callum Wilson scored in both matches.
That’s your lot from me this week. Hopefully, I’ve given you some food for thought and some solid picks for your captain’s armband. Good luck and may your arrows be green.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13. This article was written by Rosco.
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***NEW ARTICLE – CAPTAIN PICKS GW13**
Rosco Ratings (whatever the heck they are!), devils you know and ‘frisky’ picks all feature in this weeks somewhat mammoth version of Captain Picks.
Fantastic work mate, many thanks!
Can’t decide on who to transfer in Hazard or Sterling. Any helo for me to decide out there?
I’d go for Sterling.
They may well get an equalish haul of points over the next few weeks, so don’t worry too much about it. Both are great players to have and to hold.
Thanks. I am tempted but Hazards fixtures coming are so good too.
Hey Rosco – very informative and well-considered article. Hmm – I’m one of those alternating between Salah, Kun & Hazard. You’ve convinced me that it’s time to think laterally (‘outside the box’?). It may well go to Salah or new member of the team, Robertson! Maybe foolish, I don’t know?
Anyway, many thanks for the research (+ blood, sweat & tears!) that went into this article! Well done!
Captaining a defender is fraught with risk. I think Alonso is the only one I’d ever risk it on, and even then, blimey.
I’m tornish between Salah, Kun and Richarlison, knowing full well it’ll probably be Salah for me this week.
Right you are Kralin! I’ll stop myself from entertaining such thoughts immediately. If the Alonso, Robbo, Doherty & TAA score well, then that’s always a bonus! Will go either Salah or Kun I think. How are things going with you (life, work, FPL, the universe and everything!)? Tis run of the mill here in the Sud-ouest!
Maybe I shouldn’t knock it as I’ve never tried it myself.
But I’ve experienced many a time a defender’s points – maybe a nice CS plus a couple of BPS -evaporating in the blink of a stupid goal celebration.
Yes, very run of the mill I suppose. We come to the end of a dull and lurid year. Political intrigue grips the land. Most of the players in that seem to be insane. I was heartened by the bridge protests in London at the weekend.
I can well sympathise. Luckily we’re not managing ‘Westminster Fantasy teams’! It would have to be based on scoring points for the most underhand and conniving acts! So much choice on that front! I see Tess has temporarily staunched opponents to head to Brussels with a ‘cunning plan’ (Mme May, a.k.a. Baldrick!). Here tis no better, with the ‘boy-prince’ (Emmanuel M!) suffering nation-wide criticism & leaving the country open to the far-right (fascists in sheep’s clothing!) to fill the gaps (the ‘gauche’ is in tatters – but one must persist!).
Anyway, that’s depressing – one reason I play FPL (head in the sand strategy!), apart from finding it fascinating! Bye for now.
I was under the vague impression Mélenchon was popular (he certainly was when I was last there).
But yes, time to dust down the old anti-fascist songs.
Sport keeps a lot of stuff at bay, most of the time. But it keeps flooding back in.
Many people don’t feel Melenchon is totally representative of their needs/ their brand of ‘left-wing politics’. A lot feel he is too much of a loose cannon, and I’ve heard some ex-PCF/socialists say that it was a mistake to have given him their voices by default. The Ecologists have decided to remain ‘in bed’ with him, but one wonders how long it will last. What is needed is a more charismatic, but unifying influence (Brian Cohen???) to hail a new, promising era. Enough politics – I’m boring y’all.
Let’s work out these teams for GW13! A personal milestone – I’m inside the top 1m in OR. This would seem crap for anyone else, but I’ve only been playing since last year & didn’t grow up in a soccer environment – Rugby League was the dominant sport in country NSW in the 1970’s (although we DID get replays of Match of the Day on Monday nights on the ABC – the Oz equivalent of the Beebs. Was quite fascinating – watching Bobby Moore for Fullham at the end of his career etc etc). Oh sh*t! I’ve stumbled onto Memory Lane – gotta get back to reality! 
Interesting, thanks.
K, French/francophone politicians are a bunch of self serving/corrupt cee u next tuesdays mate, I know I worked with them way back in the day.
Hear hear! As are many pollies world-wide Zorro! The bunch in Oz aren’t too bad on that front – corruption masked as respectability! NZ seems to have found some common sense – good government over there! Might even immigrate – probably won’t let me take the Wallabies & Socceroos jerseys past cutoms though!
kiwis are great imo, Scotland should ban the English imo, rebuild the wall I say
St. Andrews, heaven on earth!!
Golf ‘It’s coming home’ lol. If you are a true golf fan you must play a round at St Andrews, if you know the history auld Tommy and young Tammy designed the course, then 2 years later they went to Nairn and young Tammy designed the old course there, I played both, Nairn maybe a dozen times, it’s my hometown. So any true fans must play both. Every summer there are dozens of nationalities flying in just to play there, it’s f-ing unplayable when the wind gets up. one Japanese scratch player, lost 18 balls in 1 round, may he rest in peace
Yep, that’s why I said it… In the 1400s… The old course is the course I have to play one day, hopefully on a less windy day though, as I’m not a scratch golfer, handicap is around 9 at the moment… Are you a golfer or does every Scot play some golf?
I played in my teens but after an accident in my teens I had a couple of neck surgeries that was the end of that. The course an Nairn is a hoot, you over hit one hole and the ball is on the beach ffs, the tide was in one day and I put it in the water, one of my mates waded in to get the fecker out, too funny. You must play Nairn, it should be on your bucket list.
Hey Zed, do you know why they’re called Links courses?
I think it comes from an old Scottish word meaning “rising ground” or “ridge” referring to areas where golf courses were typically built on.
“hlinc” = referred to a coastal sand dune area
Links is the area between grass and beaches, because proper grass doesn’t grow due to salt. So because the farmers cannot use them, they sold the land to golf clubs. I must admit though, I have no idea what “hlinc” is, Zeddish for kinky sex maybe?
Yeah that makes sense! But that doesn’t answer why they are called “links”… I just googled it, comes from old Scottish word “hlinc” which meant the area that you described where nothing grows (well nothing but golfers’ scores)
OK, I trust you, I never knew that amigo
Terrific article, many thanks.
The photo of Aguero reminded me of Leland Palmer, when his hair went white.
Ha, you’re right. Very Leland.
I loved Twin Peaks. But Killer Bob creeping over the sofa and table towards the camera scared the sh1t out of me.
Haha! One of my workmates looks like Bob! But he’s actually a lamb in wolf’s clothing, if I may say so! And there’s a woman who sort of acts like the Log Lady – which is kind of scary too!
Just reminds me of the ominous, ‘The owls are not what they seem’! Does this refer to Sheffield Wednesday getting promoted next year? I know I’m keen on keeping Leland in my team!
This got me thinking Twin Peaks all day yesterday. And then, like a TOTAL IDIOT, I thought I’d google that Killer Bob clip to see if it’s as scary as I remember it…
https://youtu.be/c5WC0TW_0qc
I watched the first series in a student house and it became a semi-religious weekly event. I have vague memories of it being on BBC2, fairly late.
I remember (as with many David Lynch moments) a lot of it was funnier than perhaps he intended, but there were some pretty chilling moments where we were all completely gripped. He is quite good at capturing bad dream type moments.
Great stuff, Rosco. Confirmed my feeling that it might be time to break the mould. I stopped looking at goal attempts ever since Schürrle returned to the league
Haha that’s not a bad call to be fair!
Cheers rosco.
Currently on Richarlison! Suspect I will panic and change to either salah or kun before the deadline!
All,
How’s my team looking for GW13? I have 1 FT & 0 ITB
Yeah I will likely be the same!!
Think you look pretty well set up for this week mate, I’d be tempted to roll it and look at moving Barkley if he doesn’t get many minutes!