Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13

Welcome to Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13. Twelve weeks of moving our captain’s armband between the home fixtures of Aguero and Salah with the occasional Hazard pick thrown in for good measure, we’ve had it easy. If not for my ill-fated Kane punt in GW8 I’d have a 100% captain success rate, I suspect I’m not alone.

Well, I’m afraid such simplicity comes to a shuddering halt in what will undoubtedly be an unlucky for some GW13. With the three aforementioned go-to picks all playing away from home this week, we have a situation where there is no clear favourite. We may have to actually take some risks this week. Shudder.

In my opinion, weeks like this are what make this game so compelling; pick the right man and you could make up serious ground or put some distance between you and your mini-league rivals. You could of course just as easily get it completely wrong, but we don’t want to talk about that right?

I’ve decided (as seems to be the new ‘norm’ these days) to do this week’s picks slightly differently. There is a propensity in FPL to only give your armband to high-value players; back in the Leicester City title winning season it always felt slightly wrong to consistently captain players with a sub £6.5m value, not much has changed in the intervening seasons. There will still be plenty of people sticking with the devil they know, because believe it or not, not everyone takes this game as seriously as you do.

So given that Salah, Aguero and Hazard will still have plenty of the less committed (obsessed) FPL manager more than happy stick with them this week, I’ve looked at their stats and prospects of all three players and present them below, so that if you do decide to play it ‘safe’ you’ll know which one is your best bet. I’ll then present the best alternatives for those of you who like to live life on the edge.

Better the devil you know

Mo Salah – Watford (A)

LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Mohamed Salah of Liverpool celebrates after scoring the opening goal during the Premier League match between Liverpool FC and Fulham FC. (Photo by John Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images)

Lets start with the simple stuff, of his (5) goals thus far this season only 1 has come away from Anfield and that was against Huddersfield, and although he has an equal number of assists both home and away (2) his overall points tally shows that only (25) of his (67) points have come on the road.
Rosco rating: 2 stars

Sometimes we have to scratch beneath the surface to get a better indication of how a player is performing. Away from home Salah still tops the table for Penalty area touches (46), joint top with Harry Kane for goal attempts (25) and only Riyad Mahrez has had more than his (7) shots on target.
Rosco rating: 3 stars

How have Liverpool performed from an attacking perspective on their travels? Pretty well actually; in their 6 away fixtures, only Spurs (18) have more points on the road than the 14 registered by the Reds, where they have also scored a respectable 9 times, a tally bettered by only 4 other teams. Indeed, a quick look at their underlying stats shows that only Chelsea (and Tottenham) have had more than their 80 goals attempts, although it should be noted that Chelsea (5) have played one less away match and Spurs two more (8).
Rosco rating: 3 stars

Their opponents this week have won 4 of their 6 home fixtures this season, the good news is that they’ve conceded 8 goals in those matches and only kept a clean sheet twice. Looking at their underlying stats will show however that they are one of the better teams defensively; 58 shots conceded, a total bettered by only 7 other teams.
Rosco rating: 2 stars

In summary, Salah is having a lot of attempts, will this translate to goals and assists? It hasn’t thus far but that doesn’t mean it won’t.
Overall rating: 10/12

Sergio Aguero – West Ham (A)

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Sergio Aguero does not perform away from home it would appear. Only 1 of his 7 goals and 0 of his 6 assists have come away from the Etihad. He also rarely plays a full 90 on the road; GW3 being the last time he did so. All this leads to a total of just 13 of his (73)pts notched on his travels.
Rosco rating:1 star

 However, like Salah his underlying stats are encouraging. Only Kane and Wilson can boast more than Aguero’s 32 penalty area touches in his away fixtures, he also sits third in the forward table for goal attempts (16) and second for shots on target (7).
Rosco rating: 2 stars

Manchester City are devastating at home. They’ve swept everyone aside scoring (24) goals in the process. Away from home, however, these stats have naturally regressed; 9 goals coming across their 5 fixtures, winning 3 and drawing 2. Their underlying stats show that they may not be scoring for fun, but with 75 goal attempts, they’re hardly shot shy.
Rosco rating: 2 star

Its just 2 wins in 6 at home for West Ham this season where they have conceded 7 goals, and although the 69 shots they’ve conceded at the London stadium is not the worst in the league (Burnley have conceded 92 as a comparison), they have only kept a single clean sheet in their 6 matches.
Rosco rating: 3 stars

In summary, Aguero has struggled to score on the road all season and he’s not helped by his many an early withdrawl, some will point to how much damage he is capable of, which is true, but as yet he’s kept such antics for the Etihad.
Rosco rating: 8/12

Eden Hazard – Spurs (A)

LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Eden Hazard of Chelsea FC during the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and Everton FC. (Photo by Chloe Knott – Danehouse/Getty Images)]]

He’s played one away game less than Kun and two less than Salah, but still has more points to show for it thus far; 29 of his 82 total points. With just 2 of his 7 goals and 2 of his 4 assists coming on his travels he has only performed marginally better than Salah, however, he has something the other two don’t – a double-digit haul away from Stamford Bridge; 14pts scored against Southampton in GW8.
Rosco rating: 3 stars

 Without wanting to flog a dead horse, it’s worth pointing out again that Hazard has played significantly fewer minutes than both Salah (212 minutes less) and Aguero (83 minutes less) have away from home this season. Despite this, his underlying stats compare favourably, with only four players bettering his penalty area touches (30) and goal attempts (13).
Rosco rating: 2 star

Chelsea’s away form is arguably better than their home form this season. They’ve picked up 13 out of a possible 15pts, scored 12 and conceded just a solitary goal. Their good form is no fluke, a quick look at their underlying stats shows that only Spurs (who have played 3 additional away fixtures) have had more than the 92 goal attempts registered by Maurizio Sarri’s men.
Rosco rating: 3 stars

Chelsea face arguably the most difficult fixture of the three teams, at least at first glance. Spurs current league position is largely thanks to their away form, at ‘home’ they have played just 4 games this season as they wait on the completion of their shiny new stadium. In those 4 fixtures, they’ve won 2 and lost 2 (Liverpool and Man City) and have kept just a single clean sheet.
Rosco rating:1 star

In summary, Hazard has out-performed both his rivals this season despite playing fewer minutes. He has shown he’s capable of a double-digit haul away from Stamford Bridge but has only done so against significantly inferior opposition by comparison to the team he faces this game-week.
Rosco rating: 9/12

Well, that took longer than I’d anticipated! In conclusion, if you are going to stick with one of the usual picks, then Salah looks to be the safer of the three. However, if you’re feeling frisky I have a few more options up my sleeve who may just be a better bet.

Fortune favours the brave

Anthony Martial – Crystal Palace (H)

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Anthony Martial of Manchester United. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

Anthony Martial looked set to be an Old Trafford favourite under Louis Van Gaal but he’s spent two years struggling with inconsistent form, not helped by his gaffers hard-line approach. Mourinho has apparently decided to soften his approach to the Frenchman and given that he’s pretty much single-handily kept him in employment in recent weeks that’s no real surprise.

When a player posts the kind of numbers like Martial has in recent weeks, its prudent to check if he’s simply over-performing, in his last four game-weeks he’s fourth for both penalty area touches (28) and goal attempts (12) and top of the pile shots on target (8). I’ve read a few articles in the last few days that point to a huge over-performance in terms of his xG90 (expected goals per 90). I don’t really want to get into xG as it’s a big old can of worms, but it should be noted that he’s over-performing by around 145%.

Will he remain the focal point of Man Utd’s attack? Will his point tally regress to a level that will satisfy the xG worshippers? Your guess is as good as mine. What I do know is that the Frenchman is in red-hot form; 6 goals, an assist and 11BPS in his last 5 matches. That’s a whopping 54pts for those who have him, and there’s not many (just 12.1%). If you don’t own him then perhaps consider bringing him in, and heck why not throw him the armband while you’re at it.

Richarlison – Cardiff (H)

LONDON, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 11: Richarlison of Everton during the Premier League match between Chelsea FC and Everton FC. (Photo by Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Getty Images)

A lot has been written about Everton’s Brazilian winger-come-forward this season and we’re only 12 games in. In the summer it was all about his transfer fee, Sky Sports pundit and all round dip-sh!t Paul Merson claimed his transfer hurt the summer transfer market, and whilst it was a lot of money there’s every chance that come the end of the season, he’ll have made a mockery of said pundits blathering nonsense.

Prior to GW11, Marco Silva’s decision to convert Richarlison into a centre-forward was starting to look like a bad decision, and then he popped up with two goals and a 15pts haul, a bitter pill to swallow for those who ditched him (following his red card) and had not yet brought him back into the fold (that’ll be me then).

Cardiff come into the match yet to pick up a win away from the imaginatively named Cardiff City stadium. Its 4 defeats and a draw with just 2 goals scored and 11 conceded. The Bluebirds sit third from bottom as they head into GW13, I can’t imagine they’ll drag themselves out of the relegation drop-zone this coming game-week.

Callum Wilson – Arsenal (H)

BOURNEMOUTH, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 03: Callum Wilson of Bournemouth applauds at the end of his sides 2-1 defeat during the Premier League match between AFC Bournemouth and Manchester United. (Photo by AFC Bournemouth/AFC Bournemouth via Getty Images)

Callum Wilson and his Bournemouth team have been one of this season’s surprise packages. He deservedly won his first England cap last week and duly responded with a debut goal, add that to the 6 league goals he’s already plundered this season. Wilson is not all about goals, he also sits top of the table for assists (7) and with two double-digit hauls already this season perhaps we should start considering him a genuine shout for the captain’s armband?

Anyone fancy an Arsenal defender? No, me either. They were once renowned for their defensive qualities, but this season their defence has looked a mess. They’ve only lost once away from the Emirates, but alarmingly they’ve failed to keep a single clean sheet, all the more concerning when you consider that two of their five away fixtures were Cardiff and Fulham. Arsenal have failed to win in their last two visits to the Vitality stadium and conceded 5 goals across those two game; Callum Wilson scored in both matches.

That’s your lot from me this week. Hopefully, I’ve given you some food for thought and some solid picks for your captain’s armband. Good luck and may your arrows be green.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Captain Picks Gameweek 13. This article was written by Rosco.

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