Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 13
Welcome to Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 13. And welcome back to your usual FPL articles again ahead of GW13 as we finally put the pesky International Breaks behind us once and for all for 2018 and concentrate on a prolonged period of GW’s which will see us go uninterrupted all the way through to GW21 now. Man City vs Liverpool fittingly sees us out on the 3rd January after we’ve basically done nine GW’s in about five and a bit (actual) weeks. It’s going to be intense and hectic and it often sorts out the serious FPL players from the casuals, a bit.
The main ‘madness’ of GW’s falling all over each other doesn’t actually start until about GW18, although we do have a mid-week one in GW15 which begins on Tuesday 4th December at 6.45pm. Get a diary planner is what we are saying, basically.
It’s probably worth noting at this point that the deadline passes for playing your ‘phase 1’ Wildcard (if you still have it) within the massively heavy section of this period: specifically at 2pm (UK time) on the 29th December. Or in other words; play it before GW20 or lose it.
Enough of the housekeeping duties anyway and on to the short to mid-term fixtures for the time being. And I have some issues to address along the way!
The purpose of this article is to point out which teams have favourable (and sometimes not) runs of fixtures, based upon their own current form and the strength and form of their opponents. And I’ll be honest, there’s very few who fit in either of those categories for favourable runs of at least 3 or more games. I could however go on for ages about why you shouldn’t buy players from at least 12 teams, maybe more, at least given the criteria set out above. But I won’t. There are a good few who have semi decent runs over an extended period, perhaps excluding the odd ‘blip’ so I shall focus on the positives alone, whilst simultaneously pointing out their flaws…
Let’s crack on then and try to guide you through the next few weeks of relative calm before the promised land of mayhem, madness and inevitable rotation arrives…
And just for fun we shall rank them in terms of preference too.
The all important FPL FIXTURE TRACKER itself…
Favourable Fixtures
1. Man City – West Ham (A), Bournemouth (H), Watford (A)
I’ll begin with my safe hand here then. Jose described their previous fixtures against Southampton and Shakhtar as ‘friendlies’, ironic given the training ground exercise of a goal they scored to secure the Manchester derby… He’s the gift that just keeps on giving right now, but not for the right reasons if you are on the red side of that particular city.
That Shakhtar result in particular illustrates just why City will probably headline this article from here until the end. They absolutely hammered them, a seasoned and respected Champions League team, and yet barely anybody even batted an eyelid that they actually had. And it wasn’t even their first team, or at least a full one anyway.
We could talk you through stats aplenty on both City and their opponents but what’s the point, realistically?! They’ll probably win them all and the only questions really will be by how many and who actually plays, neither of which we can answer.
Just to satisfy our statto’s though, before they switch off in mass disgust and go back to watching Pointless, here’s one to think about – City are on 36 goals so far, that’s 114 pro-rata if they keep it up. They broke records last season with 106. I doubt they will quite hit that but you never know and that alone should be enough to make you stop and wonder why you only have one of them in attack, if you do.
2. Everton – Cardiff (H), Liverpool (A), Newcastle (H)
Not quite ‘stretching the barrel time’ just yet but we are only two teams in and already we are relying on just two out of three fixtures to be good. But good they are, and Everton are showing signs of improvement with four wins and a draw at home. Both Cardiff and Newcastle are winless away from home and the 4th game is also at home (to Watford) so perhaps a quick jump on some Toffee assets may be wise, short term. Liverpool away splits our featured three games which of course is unpredictable, at best. A word to the wise though, after Watford they then face Man City and Spurs back to back, so as I say it may be a case of jumping on and then off again, but it could be a short ride, with benefits.
Now then, we aren’t allowed to encroach on actual player picks on this article, in case it undermines either our Captain Picks or Player Tips articles, but I feel the need for a bit of an intervention here as I’ve seen a certain Everton defender mentioned a number of times as a possible transfer in this week. For the sake of argument then lets call him… ‘Sean G Lucid’. Sean came in from a European giant, and despite his recent claims that they really, really didn’t want to let him go, they did. He’s already starting to come across as a smart cookie, is Sean. Add in that he clearly shared the same barbers as Everton’s last ‘bright young thing’ recruit from said giants (Deulofeu), I’m getting the impression that we have yet another ‘legend in his own mind’ on our hands here. Clawing it back to FPL then, and his prospects, yeah sure they have some good fixtures ahead, and his ‘stats’ say he’s the best in the business right now at successful (whatever that means) crosses but the reality is that this bloke looks bloody dreadful in general play. He was by far the worst player on the pitch in the recent draw with Chelsea and I caught the Soccer Saturday panel on Sky joking about him consistently not clearing the first defender with his crosses the previous week. Only trouble is, they weren’t joking. Anyway, I wouldn’t touch him, but I can’t even say who he is so move along, nothing to see here and all that, but if you’re still intrigued I’ll leave you ‘A Dig’n (for) Clues’… (*cue two assists and a clean sheet this week! Not that it’ll matter though as I didn’t name him…)
3. Wolves – Huddersfield (H), Cardiff (A), Chelsea (H)
On the strength of their next two fixtures alone Wolves probably deserve to be a lot further up this list. Hand pick any next two games and it’d probably be Huddersfield and Cardiff. Fill your Wolves shaped UGG’s whilst you can then as it’s then Chelsea next for them but beyond that one it still looks OK ish as they have Newcastle and Bournemouth up next.
4. Brighton – Leicester (H), Huddersfield (A), Crystal Palace (H)
Brighton: DUNK. That’s probably the first name that everybody thinks of when they see ‘Brighton’ right now, from an FPL perspective anyway. And rightly so, he’s got two goals in the last two games. Fun fact(s) though, before everyone goes all Joleon Lescott on him: His centre back partner Duffy has more points than him this season. As does Mat Ryan. As does… go on, have a guess. It’s Murray, of course, but it does also remind us of a great little aside that Mito posted the other day on here –Name the top 3 FPL scorers for each team… I’ll be honest now, I flunked this massively, I got 42 on my first go.
Beyond the 3 mentioned above Brighton then have Burnley away which may be OK, but then it’s Chelsea, Bournemouth, Arsenal, Everton and West Ham over the Christmas period. Dunk and Duffy would have to be at their very best to be getting clean sheets against that lot. It’s probably a four week run then, and exit stage left, if you can.
5. West Ham – Man City (H), Newcastle (A), Cardiff (H)
NOT THIS WEEK! But beyond that you are OK. Probably more than OK in fact as they don’t then face a ‘top six’ side until after Christmas with a run of the above plus Palace, Fulham, Saints, Burnley and Brighton. Grin and bare it this week against City and then you have a clear run, basically.
6. Newcastle – Burnley (A), West Ham (H), Everton (A)
Yeah, we wish it was a better team that had this run of fixtures too but they have the above plus Wolves, Huddersfield and then Fulham. Buy with caution though as a Christmas gift they are not, the festivities end before they even begin at GW19, as they then play Liverpool, Watford and Man United over Christmas.
One Week Punt
Fulham v Southampton
Dilly ding, dilly dong. A new manager bounce? You’d have probably fancied Fulham anyway in this one given how bad the Saints are but inject a bit of Ranieri and Mitro and co look all the more enticing.
It’s purely a one week punt though as they then face Chelsea, Leicester and Man United in their next three.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Fixture Analysis Gameweek 13. This article was written by inittowinit
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*** NEW ARTICLE ***
At last we can think past the international break and onto GW13. Veteran Fixtures author Init returns to his old haunt to bring us this great rundown on what to expect for the next few weeks.
Even Newcastle get a mention as does the unnamed defender who everyone is buying but who everyone should be ignoring!
Thanks Init, great stuff
Thanks Cookie, I think! You’ve gone from calling me ‘young Init’ to ‘Veteran’ in one fell swoop, whatever happened to middle age
Always a pleasure to put the Fixtures cap back on occasionally. I might yet buy our unnamed superstar, probably more for the laughs than for any other reason!
To be honest i thought my phone was broken and I was talking to myself
Young Init will return, but for Fixtures you will always be the man! It’s always good when you write.
Middle age is overrated.
Dilly Ding!
I was in self imposed exile (see below!).
Just caught up on the England game having done my own version of that Likely Lads episode around Chester Zoo all afternoon!
They’re a pleasure to watch and support once more this current team, and I don’t think I’ve thought that since 1990. What a great win, and to relegate Croatia in the process couldn’t get much better.
https://chirb.it/pEGc60
1996 was pretty good!
Aye, that’s true, forgot about them!
1966 wasn’t to bad.
I’m glad someone is enjoying international football. I don’t think I’ve ever felt such apathy towards the Irish team as I currently do. Martin O’Neill is such a pr1ck!!!
When you get called the prick when the choice is between you and Roy Keane you know you must really be a prick
What’s he done now?!
Just watch us play for 5 minutes and you’ll understand.
I appreciate this is possibly the poorest squad we’ve had in my lifetime but our style is depressing.
Can’t say I’ve seen you play Kop. The fact that I couldn’t name more than maybe 4 of your players without looking probably says it all really. These things tend to be cyclical though.
Nice to get back to normality! I’ve missed FPL and the prem but England were a nice distraction, never thought I’d say that!
Thanks for this Init, a great read to get us back into the swing of things! With regards to your Newcastle comment; I wish it was a better team with those fixtures too!!
Many thanks Rosco. Did think about you as I typed that bit out and decided you wouldn’t disagree! Who, if anyone, would you pick from them then, bearing in mind you actually see them every other week?
Oh and prove me right on another issue – Champagne Sunday?
It’s always champagne Sunday… until it’s not!! The Mrs was out last night and rolled in at 3 so was not up for her usual tipple! She’s off to bed already so I had a few ales instead!
I’ve been super impressed with Fernandez but I don’t want to get into lejeune territory again!! Kenedy looks decent but I’m not sure I’d have him as anything other than a 5th mid. Rondon it’s a case of watch this space as he looks good when he plays but he hasn’t exactly been playing regularly! Full backs I’d always take Yedlin over Dummet as he is more likely to get in the attacking positions. Best player we have though is def Dubravka, but I feel he was overpriced at £5.0. If he was £4.5 he’d be a good option, as it is I’d take a defender over him.
No Champagne Sunday?! To say I’m disappointed… This seems like something of a regular occurrence with her lately though?! Surely you and the dogs can share a bottle.
Cheers for the insight, and yeah I almost forgot about ‘Leuguenie’, thanks for reminding me! That was my fault really, we’ve heard about managers signing players based on YouTube clips but thinking about it now – buying a fantasy player based upon YouTube clips that another fantasy player has seen probably wasn’t the best idea ever
Haha probably not! I do like him as a player but he’s always bloody injured!!
Yeah I suppose I could have shared a glass with the dogs but then I’d be in their house when she’s less hungover!! I’ll feel better for it in the morning though!
Really good conversation on Martial on another fantasy site (I don’t know whether we are allowed to say the names, or link to those conversations
)… Anyway, it has made me very undecided on him. I couldn’t be more 50/50 on him actually! 😀 What are your thoughts? Here are my pros and cons:
Pros: He’s cheap, United have good fixtures, he’s in great form, he seems to be the most important attacker for Jose currently! He’s third in PPG of all midfielders in the game currently, sitting at 6.4 PPG, but the two mids above him, Sterling at 7.9 PPG and Hazard at 7.5 PPG, are almost 4 million more expensive!
Cons: Martial’s goal conversion rate for this season thus far is 44%!! That’s a huge conversion rate, nowhere near sustainable. For perspective, Suarez’s conversion rate was 17% in 13/14, and this season Aguero has 14%, Sterling 22%, and Hazard 23% conversion rates, for instance! This means that Martial has hugely over-performed recently and will most likely regress to the norm sooner rather than later. Couple that with the fact that Mou plays it ultra safe, parks the bus often when leading 1-0, and so on. His stats are not good, his assist potential is worse than Shelvey and Snodgrass for instance. I’m getting these stats from the other site, so can’t go to more detail (I think
)!
Presumably it’s Scout you’re talking about, maybe one of their hot topics.
I’ve managed ok without Martial so far so have done minimal research into him – what you mentioned above is about as much reading on the topic I’ve managed so far. Perhaps the Mou ultra-safe philosophy can be ironically juxtaposed with Liverpool’s understated performances so far (the 2-0 v Fulham could almost be described as polite).
Yep, Scout’s HT indeed! I don’t have him and have done ok but I’m between clubs here, do I downgrade Mendy to Dunk/Jonny and upgrade Höjberg to Martial or just get Trippier for Mendy…
Basically Martial or Trippier?
If I choose Jonny it means I’d have a triple wolves defense this week :woot:
It’s more Dunk & Martial vs Trippier & Højbjerg / whoever Martial replaces in your 11?
Well Dunk would just be a bench player in that case, as is Höjbjerg at the moment, would be a formation change from 4-4-2 to 3-5-2… Although I could of course use Dunk as a rotation with Doherty (and Zabaleta) whereas with Trippier I would just have to rotate Doherty and Zabaleta… Dunk is better bench player than Höjberg though… (I could afford Duffy as well though
)
Also forgot to mention that if I choose Trippier, I have enough money to get Ederson for Patricio. I’m not 100% sure I’d do it but it would be tempting given I have Hamer as my other goalie and Doherty as well, plus losing Mendy means no City defense for me… Whereas with Martial I’d have to stick with Patricio…
So it’s more like Martial/Patricio(Dunk as a bench player) or Trippier/Ederson(Höjbjerg as a bench player)
So it’s Martial or Trippier then?
Pretty much 😀
Think I’ll just check out a few YouTube clips of them and then decide 😆
You don’t have to mate, just get Rosco to do it for you, it’s in his contact
If I had the cash to bring him as for a mid-priced midfielder then I would, but not worth any major disruption to the team to raise funds so unless his hot streak continues it’s a no from me. He’s at a slightly awkward price as well – difficult to upgrade a £6.5m midfielder and not worth downgrading a premium player.
Plus, if I did buy him he would immediately start blanking anyway!
Yeah, he’s a bit akward price, didn’t think of that! Cheers, might just go with Trippier (from GW15 that is)!
Top stuff, Init. Agree with you on Sean.
Interesting to not see Chelsea there. Puts my mind at ease a little for not having Hazard vs Fulham.
He may come in yet.
One ‘banker’ in 4 – Spurs away, Wolves away and then Man City, agree on the Fulham one but they don’t cut it in comparison to the others for the purposes of this. Get through those with 12 points or so and we can start looking at them through Man City tinted glasses, perhaps.
Hadn’t actually looked at Chelsea fixtures, just knew they had Fulham soon and I wanted Hazard for it, so half expected them to be there! Yep, the fixtures aren’t great haha.
Might be worth a one week punt before I wildcard though
Eyeing him up for something similar myself (not the WC bit), Ranieri does muddy the waters on that a bit though, be interesting to see how they fare / shape up this week but obviously Saints ain’t Chelsea so it’ll still be difficult to judge.
Would likely be for Salah too, which is another factor!
Same! And I’d only want him straight back anyway so may depend on other fires etc. Would you put Salah back in on your WC or run amok elsewhere with his considerable funds?
Not sure yet! I messed around with some WC options a few days ago and it ended up being millions over budget like hammers’ attempt
. Salah would obviously help in that regard.
Liverpool’s fixtures are off putting, but going without Salah scares me!
Great stuff here Init! Making me rethink bringing in some sort of Everton cover and I’m leaning towards Siggy but might leave it till after the derby.
Thanks Matt. May as well jump straight in this week with Cardiff at home? Don’t know what you’ve seen of Everton lately but he’s been massively involved in everything now that he’s finally being played in the 10 role again. Could easily have had a brace in the Brighton game but for a couple of uncharacteristically fluffed chances.
You could be right mate. I was thinking of saving my FT this week but I might rethink that plan. The last time I say Everton play was against United and I was impressed by them. Just looking at stats though and Siggy does seem immense for your lot and I mentioned him in the fixtures last week.
United probably wasn’t the best example as we do tend to play on the back foot against the bigger teams, Chelsea was the same. Not doubt Liverpool will be too. But we are now back in a position where you sort of expect a win and a few goals against the rest.