Fantasy Hot Topics – FPL Fantasy Football Premier League

We certainly hope you enjoyed the rollercoaster that was GW31. With a high score of 205 points and an average score of 107 points, GW31 must surely go down in the FPL annals. If you were left disappointed, look on the bright side: you could be an Arsenal fan – and if you are, well you have our sympathies. Should you have scored big, the key is now to capitalise on that score over the remaining game-weeks, whether your goal is the overall rankings or simply that mini-league that you win every year. This week, rather than rolling out our weekly tips article we have decided to discuss a number topics which could influence the decisions we make over the coming weeks.

Are Arsenal a spent fantasy force?

Alarm bells started ringing at the Emirates after an opening day defeat at the hands of Villa, however they picked themselves up off the canvas to win 11 of their next 13 league games. The defeat to Villa prompted the miserly Arsene Wenger to open his wallet and spend a club record £42.5 on Mesut Ozil and the German was credited with being the catalyst for the clubs early season form. However the real star of the show was Aaron Ramsey, with the young Welshman scoring eight and picking up six assists in the opening 16 game-weeks, resulting in him reaching near ‘must have’ status and as a result his price rocketed from £5.5m to £7.6m. The north London club have not until lately had a particularly bad run of results but along the way they have suffered some heavy defeats with City & Chelsea putting six past them, while Liverpool scored five.

Up until the beginning of February the Gunners were genuine title contenders, however with just two wins in their last seven games they are more realistically now in a battle for 4^th rather than 1^st! But what does that mean from a fantasy football point of view? A quick look at the recent form table sees Arsenal lying in 11^th with three wins, two draws & three losses in their last eight games, scoring 10 and conceding 15 in this period. Things are not going to get an easier in the short term as they host City this weekend and travel to Merseyside to face Everton the following weekend. However, their final five games are against teams which we would typically expect them to beat, although a number of these clubs are embroiled in a relegation battle and will be scrapping for their lives.

So from a defensive point of view we would certainly suggest you avoid the Arsenal defence over the next couple of games with a view to considering them for the run-in. However with the likes of Chelsea & City showing imperious defensive form it might be best to avoid the Arsenal defence entirely and look elsewhere for your premium defenders. Moving onto their midfield and once again it is difficult to get excited, but at just £5.5m Tomas Rosicky is worth some consideration with the Czech scoring twice in his last five games. Unfortunately Ramsey has suffered another setback in his return from injury meaning it’s unlikely that we will consider him as a fantasy asset again this season. Up top and you have a choice between Olivier Giroud and Lukas Podolski, with Giroud scoring three in his last seven and Podolski just one in 2014! With so many other forwards in form it’s difficult to see either becoming a worthwhile fantasy asset over the remainder of the season.

[divider_1px]

Is it a good idea to double up on Chelsea at the back?

Ok, so this should be quite straightforward! To date they have the league’s best defence conceding just 23 goals in 31 games, during which time they have kept an impressive 14 clean sheets. More importantly from a fantasy football perspective is the fact that 10 of these clean sheets have come in their last 15 games. And they’re not just keeping clean sheets against the weaker teams, they kept City scoreless at a time when they were scoring for fun, while they have also kept clean sheets against Arsenal (2), Everton & Spurs. So they most certainly have form on their side and one look at their remaining fixtures will show you that these are also favourable. Aside from a trip to Liverpool in GW36 they have six games remaining against teams currently ranked 10^th and lower.

So given their form and fixtures, doubling up on the Chelsea defence certainly appears to be a good idea, but now the questions arises, which two do you choose? Realistically this decision is going to boil down to how much spare cash you have. Should you be cash rich, the obvious two to choose are Terry & Ivanovic as both offer a significant goal threat, with three apiece to date, while Terry has also picked up an impressive 23 bonus points. Should you be short of a bob or two, the chances are that you will be looking towards Cesar Azpilicueta who comes in at a budget friendly £5.6m. However like with most things in life, you get what you pay for and the Spaniard is considerably cheaper than his defensive colleagues as he is yet to chip in with a goal or an assist and has picked up just a measly two bonus. Obviously Cech & Cahill should also be considered, but to be honest, whichever two of the five you choose you are likely to be well rewarded.

[divider_1px]

Is Martin Demichelis, despite his critics, showing good late season value?

When Manuel Pellegrini signed Demichelis on transfer deadline most of us assumed that he was simply bought as cover and that we would see the Argentine make the odd appearance here & there to cover injuries & suspensions. However we didn’t factor in that Pellegrini had previously brought Demichelis to Malaga and had also managed him at River Plate. Since making his debut in GW9 the centre back has made 18 league appearances, starting the last nine. He has come in for quite a lot of criticism this season due to a number of defensive errors, particularly when he gave away a penalty against Barcelona and in the process picked up a red card which was probably the turning point in the tie, but clearly Pellegrini has faith in him.

With City having kept five clean sheets on the bounce we’re quite sure that the acquisition of a City defender is moving up your list of priorities, particularly with another two double game-weeks to come. At present it would appear that Hart, Zabaleta, Kompany & Demichelis are nailed on with Kolarov & Clichy rotating. With many fantasy managers reluctant to spend £6.0m on a keeper that leaves us with Zabaleta, Kompany & Demichelis. At £5.9m Demichelis is £0.2m cheaper than Zabaleta and £0.4m cheaper than Kompany. While he doesn’t offer the same attacking threat as Zabaleta, the fact that Zabaleta is currently sat on eight yellow cards might scare some fantasy managers away. So having looked at the facts we feel that, yes, Demichelis is showing good late season value.

[divider_1px]

Are Sunderland’s double game-weeks’ worth chasing?

Just like Man City, Sunderland have two double game-weeks’ remaining this season. Now as we witnessed in GW31 it would certainly appear that City’s double game-weeks’ are worth chasing, however the question is, are Sunderland’s? Given the current ownership rates of their players it would appear as though the vast majority of fantasy managers did not chase Sunderland’s double game-week just past, although that’s hardly surprising given the quality of players who had two games. However with fewer team involved in the impending double game-weeks it is possible that Sunderland players will become more popular, but will this be a wise move?

Given their most recent form, the answer to this is a resounding no, as they have picked up just one point from their last five games, scoring just twice while conceding ten. In DGW31 their highest scorer was budget midfielder Sung-Yeung Ki with seven points while their most popular player Adam Johnson only managed six points and interestingly Ki started on the bench in both games, while Johnson was benched for the Liverpool game. Most of us didn’t expect them to get much from the Liverpool game in GW31 but we probably expected better from their trip to Carrow Road. With the visit of Everton coupled with a trip to face City in GW34 we don’t see that double game-week offering up much in the way of fantasy points, although DGW37 is slightly easier as they travel to Old Trafford and host West Brom. So based on current form and fixtures it would certainly appear that their double game-weeks’ are currently not worth chasing, however should their form pick up this may change.

[divider_1px]

Is it too early to start planning for DGW37?

We’re going to assume that the majority of you are knee deep in planning for DGW34 as three (Everton, City & Sunderland) of the four teams involved also featured in DGW31. First, a quick re-cap on which teams have a double in GW37, they are;

• Villa
• Hull
• Man City
• Man Utd
• Sunderland
• West Brom

Again we’re going to assume that everyone is well stocked up on City players so we’re going to ignore them this week and we’ve already discussed Sunderland so that leaves us with Villa, Hull, United & West Brom. So let’s take a quick look at each team.

Villa – Villa’s form of late has been somewhat of a mixed bag with three wins, a draw & four losses in their last eight, scoring 11 and conceding 13. Following this weekend’s trip to United, Villa have a rather easy run in to the double game-week but then face a trip to City as part of the double game-week. Fabian Delph has been in great form of late, whether he can keep this up remains to be seen, while Christian Benteke will also come into many managers thoughts.

Hull – Hull’s recent form has been rather patchy with three wins, a draw and four losses in their last eight, scoring 11 and conceding 10. The Tigers face trips Villa & United in GW37 which could prove tricky. The fact that they have a blank in GW34 and face Arsenal in GW35 makes their players even less appealing, although they do face Fulham in GW36. Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long have both enjoyed good starts to life at the KC stadium and despite some tough fixtures could prove budget friendly strikers for GW37.

United – Let’s face it, United’s form of late has been wretched with three wins, two draws & three losses in their last eight, scoring 10 and conceding 10 in the process. Having featured in DGW31 many of you may already have one or two United players in your squads. However, United have a blank in GW34 and face Everton in GW35 meaning it might be foolish to load up on United players at this moment in time. Nonetheless, they have a relatively easy double game-week with games against Sunderland and Hull which is likely to make Wayne Rooney quite a popular figure for GW37.

West Brom – The Baggies form of late has been shocking with just one win and two draws in their last eight, scoring 9 and conceding 16 in the process. Their next two fixtures are proper relegation six pointers as they face Cardiff & Norwich, while they also face City before we reach GW37. GW37 is hardly a bed of roses either as they face trips to Arsenal & Sunderland. None of their players are currently showing any form and to be honest we don’t see any worthwhile investments ahead of GW37.

So is too early to start planning for DGW37? No, it certainly is not! To be honest it could prove somewhat difficult to plan for with United & Hull having blanks and the likes of West Brom, well just being West Brom…so our advice is to start planning now!

[divider_1px]

Is there value to be found in the relegation battle?

For the purposes of this article, we have decided to take the bottom five teams as constituting the relegation battle, of course a number of other teams could quite easily get relegated but we needed to set ourselves some boundaries. To be honest, Fulham, Cardiff, Sunderland, Palace & West Brom currently occupy the bottom five positions because for use of a better word, they’re rubbish! Of the five, Cardiff certainly have the easiest run-in and therefore they could potentially throw up some bargains. Jordan Mutch has looked quite lively of late with two goals & three assists in his last three games, although the Liverpool defence most certainly gave him a helping hand. At just £4.5m he certainly warrants consideration given Cardiff’s run of fixtures. Crystal Palace continue to be a tough nut to crack under Tony Pulis, conceding just eight in their last eight games, unfortunately though the clean sheets have dried up and they have kept just two in that period. With a double game-week in GW34 sandwiched between games against Cardiff and West Ham someone like Scott Dann at just £4.0m warrants some attention. As we have already discussed, despite having two double game-weeks remaining, Sunderland players are quite a risky pick. So outside of the two we have already mentioned we’re struggling to find any real value and to be honest we’re clutching at straws at little with these two!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Hot Topics, this article was written by Kop