Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 34 – Fantasy Premier League 2015/16

Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 34 – Fantasy Premier League 2015/16

Maybe not the best week to have activated a wildcard on then it would seem! That was probably the elephant in the corner which went unmentioned all along though – most GW33 wildcard teams looked weaker for 33 than they perhaps did previously for that week alone, based upon the the presented fixtures, and so it proved. With that particular anomaly out of the way though we all look ahead to GW34, which of course was the ultimate prize in the above consideration. For most. There were of course many camps this week. Some who had, did, and regretted. Some who did, didn’t, and were glad. Some who never had, couldn’t, and revelled in the results. You know what we are talking about. The new WC / BB / Chips scenario will take some getting used to and will prove a learning curve ahead of next season, that is of course assuming the new format is kept in place. Now whether you were in the ‘did’, ‘didn’t’ or ‘couldn’t’ camp it matters not really as there is a fresh GW ahead of us all and decisions will still need to be made. Whether that’s a transfer, a hit, a captain or a chip choice, it’s still a decision. We can’t cover all scenarios of course but what we can do is present the facts and so we go all statto on you for this weeks Tips as we look at the DGW teams and their respective opponents and their chances of success, or failure, statistically speaking.

Let’s begin with some basics here. Some teams play twice this week. Some don’t then feature in GW35. All teams then have the normal 1 game in GW36. Some then play twice again in GW37. All of which should be at the base of your planning for the remainder of the season and your planning of transfers and chip strategy. We have minimised the fixture tracker to illustrate the above in it’s simplest fashion.

So that’s 13 teams who are effected by either a double or a blank in the remainding weeks, and 7 who aren’t. The 7 omitted from the above have a normal run of 1 game per week, no doubles or blanks. That’s not to say they should be ignored or discounted, far from it. Especially as two of those are Leicester and Spurs – 1st and 2nd in the league. Factor them in of course, just bear in mind that they have less fixtures than some others. Whether that matters or not remains to be seen, but statistically speaking they just do.

In short then, what you need to know is this –

ARSENAL – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS, NO BLANK

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An enticing start then for Arsenal with 2 home games in a row, in theory. Well, it’s definitely 2 at home but is it enticing, that is the question. Let’s look at Arsenal themselves, first and foremost. The striking thing with Arsenal is that they’ve actually been better away from home this season, but they’re ok at home, just not stunning.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 5th
Goals For – 23, which is 9th overall.
Goals against – 10, which is 2nd overall.

So as you can see they are fairly average in terms of scoring at home but they have still averaged just over 1.5 goals per game in that respect. This weeks opponents, Palace and West Brom, are ranked 16th and 15th respectively in terms of away form (based upon the last 6 games) and haven’t won away in 7 and 3 games respectively. Neither has a terrible away defensive record though, ranking 9th and 6th in that respect. So it’s fair to say we’d probably expect Arsenal victories in both but maybe not by any cricket scores.

Defensively is where you may see the most joy in this DGW given that Arsenal are conceding at a rate of just 0.66 goals per game at home and have 7 clean sheets in their 15 home games. Their opponents are ranked 8th and 18th for goals scored away from home but the better of those (Palace) is based largely on pre-Christmas form.

Our Tips –
If you don’t have a Gunner in defence we’d add one and if you have one already we’d even be sorely tempted to add a second. Just be careful which one though as Gabriel may well be dropped after last weeks humbling at the hands of Andy Carroll. Further up the pitch the obvious picks are Sanchez and Ozil but if you need a cheap punt then Alex Iwobi has come in from nowhere to now boast 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 3 games and all for just £4.6m.

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CRYSTAL PALACE – 4 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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Palace have tough double this week with two away trips to Arsenal and Man United and that is followed by a blank week. If you chanced on one or two last time then perhaps keep them but we wouldn’t go picking any up at this stage.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 10th
Goals For – 18, which is 8th overall.
Goals against – 20, which is 9th overall.

So whilst the stats above look decent enough it’s their recent form which is more of a worry as they haven’t won away from home since the 19th December. That’a run of 7 games which has seen them score just 7 and concede 13. Given that they travel to the two teams with the two best defensive home records this week – Arsenal 2nd with 10 against and Man United 1st with 7 against, It’s fairly easy to see why we aren’t getting excited about their prospects for this week.

Our Tips –
Keep Palace if you have them and play them in hope rather than expectation.

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EVERTON – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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They may still be in the middle of a DGW but the Toffees still have another two doubles on the horizon, this week and then again in DGW37. You may require a strong bench if you are to carry their players through to 37 though as they blank in 35. That blank is cause for concern this week too though because it is there as a result of their FA Cup semi-final which not only represents their only hope of any success this season it is rather inconveniently just a matter of 3 days after they face Liverpool in the second of their DGW34 fixtures. Hopefully Martinez will be pressed for answers in this weeks press conference as to how he will negotiate these games but if he gives no indication then it may well just be a case of seeing how your luck is.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 18th
Goals For – 29, which is 4th overall.
Goals against – 28, which is 19th overall.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 4th
Goals For – 23, which is 6th overall.
Goals against – 15, which is 5th overall.

So Everton begin with a home game and their form at Goodison is odd to say the least. Ranked 18th overall in terms of points accumulated is punctuated by the fact they they’ve had no issue scoring but clearly it’s conceding way too many which is killing them here. Opponents Southampton have been showing some good away form and have won 3 of their last 6 on the road and their defence is ranked 3rd overall for away goals conceded. As we can see Everton clearly fare much better on the road but that second game is anybody’s guess because of a combination of it being a derby game and also the aforementioned possibility of players being rested ahead of the cup game.

Our Tips –
Keep Everton if you have them and see what happens but don’t go rushing to add any more.

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LIVERPOOL – 6 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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Liverpool are the team with the most games here enjoying two DGW’s and no blank in the middle for a total of 6 games in the next 4 weeks and 4 of those are at home. You do need to be aware that Klopp isn’t frightened to rotate though as was evidenced last weekend and this was probably just to ensure some key figures were fresh ahead of this weeks Europa clash with Dortmund but if they do progress then we would expect something similar in the coming weeks as they look to prioritise that competition more and more.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 8th
Goals For – 24, which is 8th overall.
Goals against – 19, which is 12th overall.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 7th
Goals For – 26, which is 4th overall.
Goals against – 23, which is 12th overall.

Liverpool have one away and then one at home in the DGW and as you can see above their form is fairly similar regardless of where they are. They rank quite high on away goals but that may be slightly skewered by the 50 odd they knocked past Villa, or whatever it was. Their first opponents Bournemouth rank 13th for goals scored but 18th for goals conceded at home so you could easily see the Reds rack up a few this week. The second game is at home to Everton which we have covered previously but if Everton do have too much of an eye on that semi then Liverpool will be sure to take advantage, much as they did when we had a similar scenario a few seasons ago and Moyes decided to rest a load.

Our Tips –
We’d have no problem carrying 3 Liverpool players here given all of the factors outlined above. Take a defender or two by all means but it’s up top that we would look to invest in more with the likes of Firmino, Coutinho and now Sturridge all back and firing or perhaps even a cheeky cheap punt on Divock Origi at just £5.4m.

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MAN CITY – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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Much like Liverpool, City bring the added bonus of no blank week to concern yourself about, it is however just the one DGW for them which is this week.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 5th
Goals For – 17, which is 11th overall.
Goals against – 14, which is 2nd overall.

City have two away games in the DGW and as you can see from above they are doing ok on the road whilst perhaps being a bit light on goals scored. They’re countering that with an excellent defensive record though which sees them 2nd overall in that respect and they’ve actually managed 9 clean sheets from 15 away games. Their first opponents Chelsea have only failed to score at home once this season though so they’ll surely test a City team possibly still without Captain Kompany. Their next opponents Newcastle aren’t anywhere near as potent and rank 10th for goals scored, so still not too bad, but they also rank 15th for home goals conceded and we would fully expect City to boost their away goals tally in that one.

Our Tips –
The City defence is notoriously hard to predict both in terms of performance and personnel. Take Hart if anyone, due to rotation elsewhere. If Kompany isn’t back then even that may be risky despite City’s good overall away defensive stats. Up top it’s a brave manager who goes without Aguero, especially now that he has de Bruyne back supplying him.

A word of warning on City before you leap in and buy three of their players – due to their victory over PSG on Tuesday, City have qualified for the semi-finals of the Champions League which will be played over two legs, either side of GW36. Now what that means for rotation, especially for the likes of Aguero and KdB remains to be seen, but be warned!

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MAN UTD – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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Man United, along with possibly Arsenal, have perhaps the most enticing DGW in prospect with two home games against a pitiful Villa and an out of sorts Palace. The big difference between United and Arsenal here is that they have a blank to consider next week but if your squad can cope with it they then have another DGW in 37, which the Gunners do not.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 2nd
Goals For – 20, which is 12th overall.
Goals against – 7, which is 1st overall.

Clearly United’s problems this season don’t stem from any real lack of home form, certainly in terms of points anyway. Goals and entertainment or lack thereof may be a different matter. A visiting Villa may just help in that respect this week! We don’t really need to tell you that Villa are more or less bottom in all imaginable stats, They’ve failed to win any of their last 15 road trips, have failed to score in 7 away games, they’ve wom just 1, scored just 11 and conceded 33. As for Palace we touched on their away form above and we’d expect United to win both of these games.

Our Tips –
We’d take a defender, maybe two if you can find two who are nailed on to play. That’ll be DDG and Smalling then but it’s not the most budget friendly combo. Rooney may or may not be back which may or may not effect Rashford’s gametime. It’s all a bit of a punt and perhaps you’d be just as well sticking with Martial or even a punt on Mata.

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NEWCASTLE – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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If it wasn’t for some semblance of home form Newcastle would be virtually down with Villa already as their away form is abysmal. These are two absolutely crucial DGW games for them then surely, if they are to harbour any hopes of retaining their top flight status. The trouble either way for them though is that you have to go back the first week of February for their last victory and they have lost 6 of the subsequent 7 since.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 14th
Goals For – 22, which is 10th overall.
Goals against – 22, which is 15th overall.

As you can see there may be some hope in so much as they’re scoring ok at home but the problem is clearly in keeping them out. First visitors Swansea have scored in each of their last 7 away games but have also conceded a total of 24 away with just one clean sheet all season. There may well be some goals in this one then. The second game is City which we covered earlier and they’ll surely find that one much tougher.

Our Tips –
If you fancy a punty punt then maybe Wijnaldum, Townsend or Mitrovic are your men but beyond that we just wouldn’t bother.

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WATFORD – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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Watford are just about safe from the drop and are maybe just one win away from actually being so, which is just as well as 4 of their next 5 games are away from home and their form in that respect is currently dreadful. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 away which doesn’t bode well for their upcoming DGW’s as all 4 games are away! Let’s face it that probably won’t matter as the home one is Villa which would see them over that 40 point mark.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 14th
Goals For – 16, which is 14th overall.
Goals against – 22, which is 13th overall.

Overall then they’re 14th away from home but as we say recent form is much worse than that. The fact that they’ve only scored 15 in 16 doesn’t fill us with much hope that they will take any DGW by storm. There’s not much of interest to tell you about their first opponents West Brom as they are slightly below average at home in terms of both goals scored and conceded and there’s nothing to suggest to expect much more than maybe a 1-1 bore draw or so. Their next trip is to West Ham who haven’t lost at home in 14 games.

Our Tips –
There’s nothing much to get too aroused about here. Even with two DGW’s, that blank one in between puts us off investing in them for now. Picking one or two up ahead of the Villa game knowing you then have them for another double may be the wiser move, if you really must.

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WEST BROM – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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Yaaaaawwwwwwwnnnnnnn. Yep you could probably see that one coming a mile off as we nearly fell asleep looking at the West Brom stats briefly above.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 12th
Goals For – 19, which is 14th overall.
Goals against – 21, which is 14th overall.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 15th
Goals For – 12, which is 18th overall.
Goals against – 18, which is 6th overall.

We covered the Watford and clearly we aren’t expecting much. In fact we covered the Arsenal game above also and the only thing worth noting really is that they are fairly resilient away from home so whilst they should lose that one it may be tighter than some are perhaps anticipating.

Our Tips –
Don’t bother, they’re too boring to even contemplate.

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WEST HAM – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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Four wins in all competitions has been followed by four draws but it still keeps the Hammers ticking over nicely and well in the hunt for the European places. They’ve averaged 2.2 goals per game over their last 10 fixtures which is mightily consistent so covering the Hammers attack for the upcoming DGW’s may be wise.

Away Form Overall:
Rank – 6th
Goals For – 25, which is 5th overall.
Goals against – 21, which is 8th overall.

Home Form Overall:
Rank – 7th
Goals For – 27, which is 6th overall.
Goals against – 19, which is 11th overall.

What the above tells us is that they’ve been uber consistent all season, be that at home or away. They’ve perhaps conceded too many away if we are being a touch critical. That may bite them again this week against Leicester but the stats suggest they’ll also put up a test for the Foxes defence. Watford at home should be much more straight forward as we alluded to earlier. One thing we would note however is that either they or Man United will be in the same scenario as Everton with a semi-final following quick on the heels of that second DGW fixture, depending on who wins this week’s replay.

Our Tips –
Definitely cover the West Ham attack, preferably with Payet. Lanzini or Antonio provide the poor mans alternatives. A punt on Andy Carroll may not be the worst shout after last heroics as he’s almost certain to start now. Unfortunately he’s almost certain to get injured again soon too.

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We won’t go into the details for each of the teams below as they don’t have a DGW this time around but they are here simply to highlight that they all affected in some way in the next few weeks, Chelsea and Sunderland have 5 games in the next 4, Norwich have a blank and all have their DGW in GW37.
CHELSEA – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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NORWICH – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. 1 BLANK

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SUNDERLAND – 5 GAMES IN THE NEXT 4 WEEKS. NO BLANK

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Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 34. This article was written by Inittowinit

Follow @AdamalcockFF247

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