Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 1 – Forwards

Welcome to Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 1 – Forwards

We’re doing things a little differently to kick off this season’s tips articles. It’s a new season and we have at least 14 decisions to be made before the season opener on August 11th. So, we have not one but three tips articles coming your way.

First, we have the strikers, and I’ve left no stone unturned as I aim to give you a comprehensive overview. With favourable pricing across the midfield, it seems that the go-to 343 of latter years has once more diminished in popularity and in truth, becoming harder than ever to justify. But does that mean we should go with just two or hell, just a lone man upfront?

To answer that question, I’ve broken down the forwards into two categories; high ownership (top 5) and then ‘best of the rest’ and ran the rule over everyone I think has value in the conversation… and Dominic Calvert Lewin.

Top 5 ownership

What do I need to say about Erling Haaland (£14m) that hasn’t been said already? With an 86.2% ownership that is only likely to increase, it seems that for the vast majority, it’s now a case of pick your 14 with an £86m budget. Is it worth going against him? Hell no.

Next up is £8m Gabriel Jesus (33% ownership). The Gunners sit top of the fixture ticker over the opening 3, with Forest (H), Palace (A) and Fulham (H), so, an Arsenal triple-up seems the smart play. The question is which 3 do you pick? Martinelli (£8m) Saka and Odegaard (both £8.5m) all scored 70+ points over the Brazilian, though it should be noted Jesus was injured for a large portion of the latter part of the season. However, the benefit of Jesus is that other than Haaland and Kane, you can move to any other striker in just a single move. Throw in those favourable fixtures, and he seems like a safe pick.

Don’t like playing safe? How about a Chelsea striker new to the league, what could possibly go wrong? Everyone and their dog jumped on Christopher Nkunku (£7.5m) when the game launched, he’s still the third highest owned forward (19.3%) in the game and his impressive pre-season form is doing little to dent that.

His Bundesliga numbers are impressive; 83 attacking returns (47 goals, 36 assists) in 119 games. He picked up Bundesliga Player of the Season in the 21/22 season following 20 goals and 13 assists and followed that up with another 20 attacking returns (16 goals, 4 assists) from just 25 matches during an injury-hit 22/23 campaign. Throw in 10 goals in 13 UCL appearances over the last 2 seasons and all indications are that this guy is the real deal.
Werner bells are still ringing in my ears, but I like what little I’ve seen.

Will he stay or will he go? Who knows, but right now he’s here and the 4th highest-owned striker (14.5%). Come the end of the 22/23 season just 9pts separated Erling Haaland and Harry Kane(£12.5), Kane, of course, played more minutes (600+) than the Norwegian but that just feels more like what we should expect moving forward.

There is no issue with Kane, we know what he can do, and we expect more of the same. It’s just bloody difficult to squeeze him in. Last season, Kane hit his highest FPL points tally to date (263pts) thanks to 39 attacking returns (30 goals, 9 assists) and it’s going to be a long season for those who choose to go without him.

Sitting just 0.1% below with a 14.4% ownership, we have Ollie Watkins (£8m). The Villa frontman has seen a £0.5m price bump following his best FPL season to date; 175pts thanks to 23 attacking returns (15 goals, 8 assists). Villa have aspirations of breaking the traditional ‘big six’ stranglehold, however, their opening 4 fixtures are tricky with trips to St James’ Park and Anfield in their first 4.

Manager Unai Emery is building something special at Villa Park. It will be interesting to see how the Villains navigate European football alongside their EPL campaign. Much like my own side (Newcastle) it will be a fine balancing act, which may ultimately dictate which and when we include players from either side.

Speaking of Newcastle, next up we have the striking duo Alexander Isak (£7.5m ) and Callum Wilson (£8m). Both players have had a £0.5m price hike reflective of their respective seasons. Wilson made 21 starts (+10 sub appearances) with 24 attacking returns (18 goals, 6 assists) averaging 7.5pts per 90 (as a comparison Watkins averaged 5pts per 90). Isak meanwhile missed a large part of the first half of the season through injury, he made 17 starts (5 sub appearances) with 12 attacking returns (10 goals, 2 assists) averaging 5.95pts per 90.

At present more teams are going with Isak (12.7%) over Wilson (9.9%), but there’s not a lot in it. Given our tricky opening fixtures (Liverpool at home with trips to Man City and Brighton on either side), my advice is to wait and watch. Hopefully, there will be some clarity on how Eddie Howe will set up, because right now, even for me, I have no idea!

Next up is Reds duo Darwin Núñez and Cody Gakpo (both £7.5m). Both currently sit with sub-10% ownership and I’d wager that one, if not both will prove to be decent value come the end of the season. Last season Darwin left FPL managers frustrated more often than not, with 9 goals and 5 assists in 19 (10) appearances but it was a case of what might have been with his xG of 12.16 suggesting he should have got more, and that’s being kind.

The bad news for Darwin is that Gakpo now considers himself a number 9, and speaking with Red’s fan and fellow contributor Matt suggests that’s where the fans expect him to play. Gakpo joined Liverpool in January, but the Dutchman still finished just 10pts behind the Uruguayan, with 7 goals and 3 assists in 17(4) matches. This is a tricky pick, with Trent Alexander-Arnold potentially playing OOP for just £0.5m more can you say hand on heart you think one of the ‘forwards’ scores more? If, however, it’s a choice between Mo Salah or say Gakpo, then perhaps the £5m saving means it is a conversation worth having. Depending on how much you value pre-season then Darwin could be beginning to sway FPL managers and old Turkey Teeth, with 4 goals and 1 assist from his last 3 outings, he’s certainly worth including in the conversation, especially at £5m less than Salah.

Chelsea’s main issue (amongst many) last season was their inability to put the ball in the back of the net. Only four teams scored fewer Premier League goals than the Blues (38), even relegated pair Leeds and Leicester scored more. Ouch!

22-year-old Nicolas Jackson (£7m) has been signed to lead the line for the Blues and the Senegalese star joins Chelsea following a prolific end to his 22/23 campaign. Jackson finished with 12 goals from just 1603 minutes of game time in La Liga with 10 of those goals coming in the final weeks of the season.

Creating chances was not an issue for Chelsea, but only 5 teams failed to convert as many as the Blues. Jackson ended the 22/23 season with an impressive 56.3% conversation rate (the best in La Liga) so he’s sure to help improve on that stat, but crucially he’s more than just a target man, will link up play and is as likely to grab an assist as he is a goal. It’s difficult to pick between Jackson and Nkunku, though the numbers do look more impressive for the latter. Like his teammate, I like what I’ve seen so far, he picked up Player of the Tournament in Chelsea’s recent win at the USA summer series following 2 goals and 3 assists, if he can bring that kind of form into the EPL then he’ll be a player we’ll all want in our teams.

Dropping down to the £6.5m bracket we have 3 players worth a mention. First up we have Julián Álvarez, who sadly comes with more caveats than your insurance fine print. He’s a talent, and he starts for most EPL sides, sadly he plays for City. The key with Álvarez is knowing when to get him in, and well, there is just no way of knowing. If however KDB is eased back in slowly from his recent Hamstring injury (which hopefully pre-season will give us some indication of) then he could be worth a punt.

He’s not the most fashionable pick but surprisingly only 4 forwards scored more FPL points than Dominic Solanke (130pts) last season. In 22/23, Bournemouth’s biggest issue was a lack of goals, indeed only 3 teams scored less. But with some exciting new signings like Justin Kluivert, new manager Andoni Iraola will be looking to improve his team’s creative output. Solanke himself perhaps should have scored more, his 9.22 xG certainly indicates as much, but his 10 assists were the highest amongst forwards and who knows, with better players around him he could prove canny value.

Another player who fits the ‘not very fashionable’ tag is Forest’s Taiwo Awoniyi (£6.5m). Awonyi finished the season on 100pts from just 1395mins and only 7 forwards scored more than the Nigerian’s 10 goals. With trips to both The Emirates and Old Trafford in their opening 3, Awonyi is a wait-and-see, but if Forest kicks on from last season and he gets more minutes then he could be worth his £6.5m price.

We have three players in the £6m bracket. First up we have Dominic Calvert-Lewin, a player who has seen his price drop to his 19/20 price following two injury-plagued campaigns. And guess what? He’s still not fully fit. As it stands, he’s reported to be a few weeks away as of July 14th. When fit, he’s a player who could get you 20+ attacking returns and Lord knows Everton could do with him back and firing on all cylinders. For now, though, I’d avoid.

If you’re not feeling the pull of Bryan ‘He’s out of position and he’ll play up front’ Mbeumo, then fear not, Yoane Wissa (£6m) has actually played up front, scored in pre-season and he’s £0.5m cheaper! Wissa has just 3.9% ownership (Mbeumo 23.8% ) and when on the pitch last season he did remarkably well. 11 attacking returns (7 goals, 4 assists) in just 1587 minutes. After their opener against Spurs (H), the Bees have a favourable run, Wissa is flying under the radar a bit, I suspect he won’t be for long.

Finally, we have Evan Ferguson (£6m). Brighton fans see him as their first-choice number 9 following his breakout season that saw him notch 8 attacking returns (6 goals, 2 assists) in just 942 minutes. Others will say he’s not a guaranteed starter with Danny Welbeck a potential threat to his minutes. Keep an eye on pre-season, if it looks like the Irishman gets the nod then he’s worth a punt in my humble opinion.

Another player who may impact Fergusons’ minutes is new signing João Pedro (£5.5). Pedro signed for the Seagulls following an impressive Championship campaign for Watford, the £30m Brazilian looked lively against Chelsea, winning and scoring the resulting penalty and grabbing an assist. However, manager Roberto De Zerbi insists that despite his versatility he will face a battle to make it into the starting 11. I suspect that versatility works in his favour in the long run, whether that makes him a good or even viable FPL asset, is yet unknown.

That’s your lot, hopefully, I’ve given you some food for thought! Good luck for the season everyone!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 1 – Forwards. This article was written by Rosco.

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