Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 13

Welcome to Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 13. Unlike the masses, I do enjoy the international breaks. They give me an opportunity to focus my attention on other sports. This past weekend saw Rugby’s European Champions Cup kick-off and we were treated to some great rugby. For those of you who suffer from withdrawal symptoms during the international breaks you will be glad to know that there isn’t another such break until the end of March. What’s more, the next nine game-weeks are squeezed into 5 ½ weeks. Such a period will go a long way to separating the wheat from the chaff.

For this week’s article I have decided to focus on the next five game-weeks as this will bring us to the Christmas period. My intention was to focus on the big hitters but when I sat down to write the article I couldn’t bring myself to tell you why you should own the likes of Lundstram, Mane or Vardy. You all know the reasons. Well, some of you do!! Instead I’ve opted to look at some good old differentials…

Goalkeepers / Defenders

As I’ve discussed in previous articles where I’ve focused on differentials you don’t tend to pick a keeper because he’s a differential. The pool of potential keepers is so small; all the decent keepers are typically highly owned. This time around it’s no different and it’s for that very reason why I’m combining the goalkeeper and defenders section.

There is one keeper that stands out and that is Sheffield United’s Dean Henderson. I appreciate that he is not available this week but he’s certainly a keeper worth considering thereafter. He is currently the 4th highest scoring keeper in the game with 51pts but is only the 15th most popular with an ownership of just 5.8%. The reason his ownership is so low is unquestionably because everyone owns John Lundstram (41.8%) and they are reluctant to double up on Sheffield United. However, this is perhaps an oversight on the part of many FPL managers. Only Leicester have conceded fewer goals, eight compared to nine, while no team can better the five clean sheets Henderson has picked up. Obviously Henderson can’t score any points this week but given their form and fixtures through to Christmas there is every chance of more clean sheets.

Should you be happy with your current keeper set-up but are intrigued by doubling up on the Sheffield United defence you may want to consider George Baldock (1.7%). The right wing back has had more touches in the opposition area than any other defender priced at £5.0m or less and last weekend he was rewarded with his first goal of the season.

Chelsea’s defence has come in for some criticism over the course of the season to date and to be honest, most of it has been justified. They’ve conceded a total of 17 goals, a figure bettered by eight teams. They’ve only kept three clean sheets but encouragingly these have all come in the last six game-weeks and during this period they’ve conceded just four goals with only Leicester and Sheffield United bettering that. Fikayo Tomori is the most popular of the Chelsea defence but still appears in just 8% of all teams. Despite scoring in GW5 he offers little in the way of attacking threat when compared to the likes of Azpi, Alonso, Emerson and even Zouma. He is however considerably cheaper than all of them bar Zouma. So why Tomori over Zouma? For a start, apart from a few more attempts on goal Zouma’s attacking stats are not that much more impressive than Tomori’s. On the flip side, Tomori’s defensive stats are significantly better than Zouma’s and this is reflected in the BPS with Tomori scoring 185 compared to Zouma’s 146, and such scoring is likely to see Tomori pick up more baps than Zouma.

I had initially pencilled in Callum Chambers for an appearance this week but then thought the better of it. I then had a lightbulb moment, although some may consider it a moment of insanity, and I’ve opted instead for Hector Bellerin (0.4%). I’m well aware that they’ve only kept two clean sheets to date and that they have conceded 17 goals but as I’ve always said, players are differentials for a reason. The Spaniard has been slowly reintroduced to the starting XI following a lengthy injury and made his first league appearance of the season against Leicester in GW12. If Arsenal are ever going to pick up clean sheets it’s in their next four games. Bellerin averages 5 assists per season over the past four seasons so an assist for the likes of Auba or Lacazette certainly isn’t out of the question.

It’s not very often that a Newcastle player features on these pages, never mind a Newcastle defender, but this week we’re living life on the edge. They’ve conceded 18 goals to date but eight of those came in games against Leicester & Liverpool, while they also played Pukki at the wrong time of the season as they conceded three to Norwich in GW2. They’ve managed to keep three clean sheets, a figure only bettered by five teams. Their most popular defender, Jamaal Lascelles, is likely to miss the next two months meaning none of their available defenders feature in more than 2% of teams. I’m going with Ciaran Clark. Not because he’s scored in each of the last two game-weeks but because at £4.3m he’s the cheapest. If you’re prepared to shell out an extra £0.3m you will be able to afford Jetro Willems who is the most attacking of the Geordie defenders. Over the past six game-weeks he leads the way for touches in the opposition area as well as goal attempts. I should point out that Clark is next best. Aside from the visit of City in GW14 Newcastle fixture’s over the next five game-weeks are not too bad so a clean sheet or two is not out of the question.

I had initially decided not to include any Spurs players this week as their form has been crap. However, the appointment of Jose changes that. I’m not suggesting that sacking Poch and appointing Jose was necessarily the right thing to do but I do expect Jose to get an immediate response from the players. Obviously we don’t know who Jose will favour in terms of selection but for now I’m going for Serge Aurier. There are no stats to back this up but at £4.8m he’s the cheapest option unless Jose opts for KWP at right back and he currently features in just 1.9% of teams.

Midfielders

If we were to combine the current form table with upcoming fixtures Leicester would certainly be near the top. With an ownership of 21.5% James Maddison has clearly been the go to Leicester midfielder so we must look elsewhere. The choices are Youri Tielmans, Ayoze Perez and Harvey Barnes. If we look at the stats of these three over the past four game-weeks we see that Perez leads the way for penalty area touches while Barnes and Tielmans are tied for goal attempts, although Perez leads the way for attempts on target. Tielmans leads the way for chances created. Stats alone over the past four game-weeks would indicate that Perez is the best bet but his inconsistency knows no bounds. Tielmans has been an ever present in midfield for Brendan Rodgers this season and because of this he’s within 5pts of Madison, while he leads Perez by 11pts and Barnes by 13pts. It’s his guaranteed game time that edges it for Tielmans over the other two. I certainly wouldn’t ignore Barnes though as among all midfielders priced at £6.0m and under his stats are quite impressive. So, if money is tight Barnes is possible the way to go.

Mason Mount grabbed the early season headlines at Stamford Bridge. Then it was Callum Hudson-Odoi for a matter of weeks and the latest midfielder to grab the headlines is Christian Pulisic. To be honest I had intended to include the Yank but with an ownership now of 12.1% I’ve decided to look elsewhere. One player who continues to be overlooked is Willian (3%). The Brazilian had a slow start to the season and didn’t start his first game until GW5 but has started every game since. Over the last six game-weeks he has registered two goals, three assists and nine bonus points. Take a look at the stats from the past six game-weeks and you’ll see that only Pulisic has more penalty area touches 33v24, Willian has five more goal attempts than the next best who is Mount, he’s second behind Pulisic for attempts on target while he’s out on his own for chances created. I should point out at this stage that Willian has played over 200 minutes more than Pulisic over the past six game-weeks.

Kevin de Bruyne (39.9%) is the game’s most popular midfielder whilst Raheem Sterling (35.5%) comes in 3rd. In terms of points, KdB is 2nd on 76 whilst Sterling comes in 4th with 67. David Silva is currently the 6th highest scoring midfielder with 61pts but is just the 16th most popular featuring in 8.5% of teams. Something doesn’t add up. Many will have doubled up on KdB and Sterling but this will have taken up a serious amount of their budget. Silva on the other hand is relatively cheap, costing £2.6m less than KdB and an eye watering £4.4m less than Sterling. I’m not going to sit here and suggest you drop either KdB or Sterling for Silva as it would take a brave manager to do that but if for some reason or another you’re currently without a City mid you could do worse than consider the diminutive Spaniard. Don’t worry about their fixture list, they have the ability to batter any team!

Jose has a wealth of options to choose from in midfield, many of whom are out of form but I expect some of these will rediscover their form over the coming weeks. Given the importance of Heung-Min Son to the team over the past number of seasons I fully expect him to remain in the starting XI. Just like Spurs the South Korean is yet to hit the heights of the past two seasons but he has still managed three goals and five assists. For the gamblers amongst you, now is the time to punt on the Spurs options because if their form does improve under Jose everybody will be after their assets. Son is the most popular of the Spurs mids but at 7.7% he still represents a great differential.

Forwards

Does an ownership of 10.6% constitute a differential? It probably does, just about. It certainly does when you consider the player in question is Roberto Firmino. Given Liverpool’s upcoming fixtures the majority appear intent on picking three from TAA, Robertson, Salah & Mane. Granted, Firmino has failed to pick up any returns for the past six game-weeks. The stats suggest that he has been unlucky. Over the past six game-weeks he ranks 2nd for penalty area touches, 6th for goal attempts and 4th for chances created. Those who watch Liverpool regularly will confirm that he passes the eye test and that he is a central cog in Liverpool’s attacking play. Will he outscore the two full-backs and his two attacking colleagues? It’s highly unlikely he’ll outscore all of them but I feel he should certainly be part of the conversation for those tripling up on Liverpool.

As Guy pointed out in his excellent fixtures article earlier this week, Arsenal are somehow 6th. This is despite picking up just two points from their last four games. Aubameyang has been the only Arsenal asset worth owning over the course of the season and he has rewarded owners with eight goals. He is however enduring something of a barren spell, scoring just the one goal in his last five games. Arsenal do have some decent fixtures coming up over the coming weeks and with an ownership of just 1.7% Alexandre Lacazette is potentially a great differential. The Frenchman has missed a considerable part of the season to date through injury but returned from the bench in GW9 and has started the subsequent three games. Their stats from the past four game-weeks are somewhat surprising. Lacazette has 22 penalty area touches compared to Auba’s eight, 11 goal attempts compared to Auba’s seven, four attempts on target compared to Auba’s two and has created five chances compared to Auba’s three. A lot of this can be attributed to the fact that Auba has been pushed out wide to accommodate the return of Lacazette but the numbers are still surprising. Given that he’s £1.7m cheaper than Auba I believe there is certainly a case to be made for choosing him over Aubameyang.

At the cheaper end of the scale there are a trio of players worth considering, Southampton’s Danny Ings (3%), Crystal Palace’s Jordan Ayew (8.2%) and Lys Mousset (2.3%) of Sheffield United. All three have generated some returns over the course of the past 12 games, Ings has a five goals and an assist, Ayew has four goals while Mousset has three goals and three assists. Unfortunately, Southampton, Palace and Sheffield United have relatively difficult fixtures this week but hereafter all three have a decent run. If we take a look at their respective stats over the past six game-weeks we see that there is little to spate them in terms of touches in the penalty area, Mousset has 24 while the other two have 21. Ings leads the way for goal attempts with 14, seven of which were on target, Ayew has 12 goal attempts with three on target, while Mousset has 10 goal attempts with two on target. Ayew and Ings are clearly more assured of game time as they played 517 minutes and 473 minutes respectively, compared to 293 minutes for Mousset. If you asked me to rank the three in order of preference I’d go Ings, Ayew, Mousset. That is based on their ability to pick up points. However, if you’re playing 3-5-2 Mousset is probably your best bet.

Harry Kane has suddenly become an option, albeit an expensive one!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 13. This article was written by Kop.

Follow @KenLyons79

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