Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14

Welcome to Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14

As mentioned in our last tips article, our Captains article is on a much-deserved break although given that it was booked by one Erling Halland, who at the time of writing is yellow flagged, perhaps we may all be scrapping around looking for a viable captain come Saturday after all!

However, for the time being, we’re sticking with our adapted Tips article. In case you missed the last ‘tips’ article, what we are going to do for now is ask our writers to construct a ‘Best 11’, with fine details like budget slightly put to one side – though, of course, there are plenty of nicely-priced options in all positions at the moment.

This week we have Smash looking at a keeper and midfielders, Rosco is on hand with the defence, and finally, it’s OddDane tasked with the forwards, and his selections may just prove not so crazy after all (given one glaring omission!)

Let’s see who made our GW14 team of the week!

Keeper – Smash

David Raya (£4.6m)

Wolves just struggle to score goals. They have a fair amount of shots but they rarely cause much trouble going forward. Brentford are strong at home and have two clean sheets in their last two home matches. Raya is in form, makes a lot of saves and is good for bonus, what more do you want for a keeper this week. He’s also away at Forest next week, who also struggle to score goals. Hell, I wish I owned Raya this week.

Defenders – Rosco

João Cancelo(£7.4m)
With a 55.6% ownership, it’s simply not worth going against the City fullback. 2 goals, 2 assists and 5 clean sheets see the Portuguese sitting just a point from the top-scoring defender (more on him soon). Cancelo’s underlying stats are not actually that great, and you could argue that for the money perhaps he’s slightly underperforming. However, he’s averaging 6.4pts per 90 minutes and he’ll break the 200pts barrier for the second season running if he maintains his current form. Lots were comfortable going without him just a few weeks back, then he popped up with an 18-pointer at home to Southampton. He’s had 2pts over the last 2 game weeks, but that won’t last and he’s a lock in our back 3 this week.

Kieran Trippier £5.8m
Next into our backline is Kieran Trippier, nearly 60% of the game now owns the Newcastle full-back and for good reason. Trippier is the highest-scoring defender with 66pts thanks to 6 clean sheets and 3 attacking returns (1 goal and 2 assists). Aston Villa looked a lot more threatening in GW13 under caretaker manager Aaron Danks, but Newcastle will no doubt prove an entirely different proposition for the Villains come the weekend. Indeed, no team has conceded fewer than Newcastle (10) or has as many clean sheets (5). Trippier also sits top of the pile amongst defenders for chances created (17) thanks in no small part to the 36 corners he’s taken (again top by some margin), 15 of those corners were successful (yup – top again) and he’s also top for crosses from free-kicks (9), 4 of which were successful (and yes, he’s top for those too). You don’t own Tripps? Bonkers.

Trent Alexander-Arnold £7.2m
Trent makes the cut, but we’ll be honest, it was touch and go. By his own high standards (much like Liverpool in general) Trent has not delivered. 34pts is a poor return, especially when you note 23 defenders have scored more, it’s hard to spend so much when you’re getting so little in return. From a defensive POV Liverpool haven’t been that bad, their 4 clean sheets just one behind Newcastle and Man City (5). However, Trent has only been on the pitch for 2 of those. I’m not exactly selling him here I realise. So, why is he here? Well, I can throw in the cliched ‘form is temporary, class is permanent’, but that’s a bit weak in and of itself, so instead I’ll chuck some stats in your general direction.

At present, Trent sits third (amongst defenders) for chances created (20) that’s despite significantly fewer minutes than both players above him (Trippier and Cresswell), not only that, he’s also third for goal attempts, again with significantly fewer minutes than the competition. It’s Leeds at home this weekend and the visitors have been poor on the road this season having lost 4 of their 5 away games, shipping 12 goals along the way. Back in February Liverpool put 6 past the hapless whites at Anfield, if ever there was a time to take a punt on a ‘rested’ TAA then we feel the time is now.

Midfielders – Smash

Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) and Bukayo Saka (£7.9m)
Arsenal midfielders Bukayo Saka (£7.9m) and Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) potentially have the best fixture this week as they host Nottingham Forest. Forest have conceded 14 goals in just 6 matches so far away this season which is the 4th worst in the league. 17 big chances conceded is the 3rd worst in the league for away form. Overall this is even worse as they are 19th for goals conceded and xGC rate of 23.4 which is also 19th. These two provide value in the midfield, with 16 attacking returns between them this season. Saka costs the extra but he’s on penalties. Saka has a higher xGI of 5.89 (3rd for midfielders) than Martinelli’s 4.96 (6th for midfielders). The bookies have Arsenal at 55% (second) to score 2.5+ goals this week. Basically, Arsenal are flying high at the top of the table, their assets are cheap and they are playing at home against the team that is bottom of the table. What’s not to like here?

Phil Foden (£8.4m)
Prior to the week just gone no midfielder in the league had more FPL points. He’s just had his rest at the weekend now so should in theory start the rest of the Manchester City games. 6 goals and 4 assists for Foden this season. Foden has an xG of 3.62 and has also been pretty creative as he’s Created 18 chances with an xA of 2.85. Leicester have improved defensively recently. However, they have conceded 24 goals (20th) with an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of 19.5 (16th). You would expect City to have too much attacking threat to keep them out.

Miguel Almiron (£5.4m)
Newcastle’s Miguel Almiron (£5.4m) is a changed man this season. He’s on fire and enjoying the best season of his life and is playing with so much confidence. The Paraguayan now has six goals this season, as many as the more popular picks of Maddison and Phil Foden (£8.4m). Only 8 players have had more goal attempts than Almiron this season. At just 5.4 a starting attacker for a Newcastle player who are 4th in the Premier League you really can’t go wrong, he’s a great enabler.

Forwards – OddDane

Right, onwards and forwards or something to that effect. Now let’s see hmm, if I had to pick three forwards for this week I think it would have to be… Yes! Erling, Braut and Haaland! You can’t go wrong with those guys! Alright, alright, of course, you know this Norwegian Adonis can bring his A-game to just about any game, so let’s look at three other options for the week assuming you already have him.

Darwin Núñez (£8.8m)
First off, a bit of a biased pick on my part, there’s mister Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro who will be facing off against Leeds who is visiting for what I’d expect to be a proper bashing at Anfield (let’s not get into who is bashing who… wipes away tears from Saturday).

Darwin looked positively electric against West Ham before his injury (was it really an injury Klopp?!) and got away with one goal in 57 mins, but truth be told it might as well have been two or three. His underlying numbers are quite decent too, having averaged 9.4 shots/90, 2.4 shots on target/90 and registering 1.1 npxG+xA/90 in the EPL thus far.

This will come in handy when facing the aforementioned Leeds who defensively are looking less than promising. Leeds are fourth worst for clean sheets with an 18% CS rate, having conceded 1.64 goals/90 from 4.27 shots on target conceded/90. Let’s see if he is fit for a fight, shall we! He certainly looked it against Ajax!

Moving on…

Jesus (£8.0m)
Next, we have Gabriel Fernando de Jesus who is also enjoying a home game this week. And it’s against none other than the notorious Nottingham Forest. Notorious mostly because they’ve conceded an average of 5.92 shots on target/90 (league-worst) resulting in 1.94 goals conceded/90 – a stat only “bettered” by Leicester and Bournemouth. Now it should be said that Forest have a cat of sorts called Henderson who may spoil the show, but surely his nine lives are up by now!? Maybe if someone stole that magic cap of his…

Anyway, Jesus has been looking solid for the Gunners and against Forest, he should have ample opportunity for goals – yes, plural. He’s delivered in line with his expected goal involvement thus far, a performance which puts him at G+A/90 of 0.76 (xG+A/90 is 0.77) and that’s quite all right I’d say. Arsenal too are looking well-gelled, and I don’t see them pulling a Klopp (Flopp?) against Forest come Sunday – mostly because, well, they can muster a full starting XI and Jesus should be in that!

There’s a small disclaimer that he’s worked his way up to four yellows which put him at risk of a suspension from the 5th card, but surely, he can behave this week. Right…?

And on to the final pick. Drum roll…

Harry Kane (£11.5m)
Well, it’s that guy Harry Kane. Bear with me, I did think of a more exciting pick like -say- DCL because Fulham couldn’t keep a clean sheet to save their lives. But sadly, Harry keeps showing up to ruin my game week scores (no, I don’t have him, thank you for asking). Last week it was a deflection which landed at his feet, well, his head, and next found its way to the opponent’s net.

Spurs are visiting Bournemouth who have also been rather excellent at conceding shots and goals so far (there’s maybe a pattern in the picks here…). Be mindful that a wholesome nine goals were conceded to Liverpool in one game, so they are maybe not as bad as their numbers indicate. But, well, they’re also not good that’s for sure.
Harry is on penalties and has had three of them already, but who’s to say that won’t continue? (Please stop giving him those penalties…!). Yet, even without those pens, his npxG+A/90 has been 0.71 which is quite promising still. Surely he’ll show up in some sort of fashion against Bournemouth.

So that’s that then – good luck folks!

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 14. This article was written by Rosco, Smash and OddDane.

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