Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 3

Welcome to Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 3

GOALKEEPERS, by OddDane

Onwards and upwards, it’s time for gameweek three – let’s hope it’s a doozy! (And not the red card or missed penalty for your cap’n kind of doozy…)

As a keen follower of this site you’ve of course already chosen a solid last man standing so there’s no need to be looking for a keeper replacement for that free transfer. Right? Well, you needn’t read on then…

Ha! I thought so, let’s have a look at the clean sheet odds for this week. The picks of the bunch seem to be TOT, ARS, MCI, CHE, LFC and (supposedly) EVE. Roughly in that order, mind you I think I’d pass on Pickford vs Nottingham Forest.

Unsurprisingly the premium picks top the list so let’s quickly skip Ederson (5.5, MCI) who is of course a solid pick just about any week.

Lloris (5.5, TOT) is facing off against Wolves at home and Spurs are rated for nearly a 50% chance of keeping their sheets clean – if you have the dough to dish out then this may be a sure-starterish route into their defence (looking your way Perisic…). Their following games are NFO, WHU and Ful.

Next up let’s give Ramsdale (5.0, ARS) a look. The Gunners are shooting off against Bournemouth away, followed by Ful, Avl and MUN. If you’re not already stacked up with three outfielders, and I can’t blame you for that, then Aaron could be your guy between the poles.

Final pick from the odds’ list is mister Edouard Mendy (5.0, CHE) who is visiting Leeds for an away game from which they could get away without conceding if past games between the two have anything to say. Leeds have been starting off well and Rodrigo is in form, however, they did lose Bamford to injury (again) and have thus far not met particularly standout defences. Fixtures are decent too, the following games are Lei, SOU and Whu.

Amongst the budget picks my choices would be Pickford (4.5, EVE) facing off against Nottingham Forest and after that it’s BRE and LEE. Then there’s Henderson (4.5, NFO) for a one-week punt against, well, Everton (mind you fixtures aren’t great after…). That game could well be 0-0 in my book.

Moving on down the list we have Guita (4.5, CRY) who is meeting an Aston Villa at home who has had their fair bit of difficulties finding the ol’ scoring boots. He is off against MCI, Bre and New thereafter.

Finally, there’s Ward (4.0, LEI) facing off against Southampton at home which on paper gives them decent odds for a CS but I’m not keeping my hopes up – those extra 0.5 best be working well for you elsewhere

DEFENDERS, by Rosco

With ‘Big back at the back’ proving popular from the off, there haven’t been many calls for defenders on the more budget-friendly side. However, with the budget midfielders failing to deliver whilst the £8m mids start to show their worth, along with people even debating the old tried and trusted 343 formations, it’s surely only a matter of time before we all start to look at releasing some of the budget tied up in our defences. So, with that in mind, I’ve focused my attention on defenders who all come in below £6m, with a specific focus on the best defenders in the £4.5m bracket.

Brighton sit top of the fixture ticker over the next 6 game weeks. They head into this period having conceded just once in their opening two fixtures and currently sit 6th for least shots on target conceded. The Seagulls have favourable fixtures through to GW9, every side they face sits in the bottom half for goal attempts with GWs 5 -9 looking particularly good as they face (Fulham A), Leicester (H), Bournemouth (A) and Palace (H), 4 teams which just so happen to make up 4 of the bottom 5 for total goal attempts.

Historically, Lewis Dunk (£4.5m) has been the go-to but you could just as easily opt for either of his teammates Joel Veltman or Adam Webster (also both £4.5m). Veltman seems to be the player in the ascendancy if last season’s points are anything to go by but honestly, there isn’t much between them in terms of current underlying data and historical attacking numbers. Looking at Brighton’s xGC (expected goals conceded) they are good value for the defensive stats thus far with only Brentford and Manchester City performing better in the opening two game weeks.

Second on the ticker are Brentford, who, following West Ham face Leeds (H), Fulham (A), Leicester (H), Bournemouth (A) and Palace (H) as mentioned above the latter 4 fixtures are against 4 of the bottom 5 teams for goal attempts.

Ben Mee (£4.5m) will attract the most attention following his goal at the weekend and he’s usually good for a couple per season, indeed he scored 3 times last season in less than 21 appearances. Last season Left back/ wingback Rico Henry (£4.5m) scored 3 albeit from a substantially greater number of games but may still be the one to go for given that he has the most goal attempts of the 3… with 3. If you have a little more cash then Aaron Hickey (£5.0m) looks promising with 3 penalty area touches (the most amongst the Brentford defence). However, if I were to punt on any it would be Pontus Jansen (£4.5m), like Henry and Mee he scored 3 times last season but he also weighed in with 4 assists and is a lock in the Bees backline.

Leicester face Liverpool in GW7 but before that, they have 5 fixtures which would sit them second on the ticker. Chelsea are usually a safe bet for clean sheets and whilst they may have disappointed a lot of FPL managers in GW2, fixtures against Leeds (A), Leicester (H), Southampton (A), West Ham (H) and Fulham (A) look a safe bet for 2-3 clean sheets. With many teams having Reece James, and those without I’m sure well aware of his capabilities, we’ll instead turn our attention to his teammates. Marc Cucurella (£5m) is the pick of the bunch, his assist in GW2 will have alerted those who were not aware that despite limited attacking numbers for Brighton last season, he was in fact fifth amongst all defenders for chances created. The only concern that you may have with Cucurella is that he may sometimes share minutes with Chilwell when he’s fit, that’s the risk you take for £5m. If you’re looking for more game-time security then for just £0.5m more you can get his teammate Koulibaly (£5.5m), who scored at the weekend and when fit should be a lock. Will he get the kind of returns that made Rudiger so popular despite the obvious pull of the Chelsea wingbacks? Possibly.

Other notable mentions go to Leicester’s Timothy Castagne (£4.5m) who scored in GW1 and whilst it was a big fat 0 in GW2, Leicester do have favourable fixtures through to GW14 if you can afford to bench him GW4 (Chelsea A) and GW8 (Spurs A), he along with teammate James Justin (bonus magnet) could be a cheap route to some serious differential points.

The next 4 look good for Spurs so if you want a guaranteed starter then Eric Dier (£5m) looks the best bet, and whilst he scored in GW1, it was his first EPL goal in 4 seasons. Ivan Perisic (£5.4m) has been limited to minutes off the bench, but his assist at the weekend will surely see him get his first start at home to Wolves this weekend. If he does, expect his ownership to soar from its already high 18% ownership, because if he replicates anything even close to his form from last season (8 goals and 7 assists), he will be in everyone’s team. One to get on early if you can handle the rotation.

MIDFIELDERS, by Matt

I’m not going to waste my time or yours writing about the top-level midfielders. If you need to be told Salah, KdB and Son are brilliant FPL assets then maybe you need a new hobby! The biggest question on the lips of fantasy managers this week truly sums up how the game is going so far this season… what to do with Leon Bailey? This of course means I get to do my favourite thing and look at template breakers, better known as DIFFERENTIALS! This section pretty much gives you options at the same price or slightly more expensive depending on your finances.

Let’s start with two ‘premium’ options or at least they are more expensive than the other mids I will be mentioning. Now even though the Man City midfield is something of a minefield, I feel Ilkay Gundogan (£7.5m) could be a solid replacement in our teams. Gundo has recently been named as the team captain after the departure of Fernandinho. This could suggest more game time as managers don’t tend to bench their captain. The other thing that might point to more game time for the German, is that Bernardo Silva appears to be on his way out of the club. The Portuguese midfielder is probably the biggest challenger to Gundo’s minutes so with him leaving I would be a bit happier having him in my team. Only owned by 1.9% of managers he could be an amazing option to go with Haaland. He has an xG of 0.33, and xA of 0.13 and is averaging 6.5 points across the two games so far this season. If he can get back to his best form and you can find 2.5 million, what an upgrade over a certain Jamaican.

The other premium I want to mention is James Maddison (£8.0m), a few weeks ago we weren’t sure if Maddy was even going to be a Leicester player with Newcastle snooping around. However, the Englishman has put all that behind him, put his head down and started the season as the best Leicester player. He had the most shots (6) and an assist in GW1 against Brentford. Before he bettered that by scoring a brilliant goal against Arsenal in GW2. Only owned by 5.1%, he is also a differential but my biggest issue is his price so it would be more difficult to bring him in if replacing Bailey. He does come up against a Southampton side who have started the season conceding 31 shots over 2 games and 6 goals. Sticking with Leicester but moving away from the expensive options, let’s look at Maddy’s teammate, Dewsbury Hall, someone who Rosco once described as having the perfect wedding venue name. KDH is a much more budget-friendly option at 5.0. Looks pretty lively and also already has a goal to his name, I fancy KDH to have a decent season this year. With Maddy looking so creative, hopefully, this will result in KDH getting on the end of some passes to slot into the net or even picking up some tips to assist the strikers himself. Only owned by 2.4% I’m sure this percentage will only go up as will his price!

Another 5.0 Mid that I’m looking at, and will probably be the punt I take, is Solly March (£5.0m). Brighton have started the season well with a win against Man Utd and a draw to Newcastle in a game where they should have scored a bucketload. In fact, they had an xG of 1.9 but Nick Pope combined with poor finishing meant they left the Amex with 0 goals. I watched MOTD on Saturday night and was super impressed by Brighton. They had an amazing performance and really should have won. The number of times I was expecting to see the ball hit the back of the net only to see it slide wide or Pope save was crazy! The Seagulls had an xG of 2.14 which was the 2nd best of the weekend. I’m sure Potter must have thought Voldemort was up to his dark tricks on the South Coast as Brighton really should have won! The reason I will be going with March is firstly, I liked how he almost scored, and created several chances that were narrowly missed and secondly because he has such low ownership (0.4%). His underlying stats are very good too so with the fixtures that are coming up all the way to GW9 could result in some returns. While I will likely be going with March, he wouldn’t be my top target. That honour goes to Pascal Gross, a man who has been a bit of an FPL troll since 17/18, the last time he was any good. I found a lot of people on Twitter discussing Gross and this is largely due to a change in position out on the right wing at the start of this season and the last three games of last season. It will be interesting to see if the manager keeps him there but surely with the 2 goals and 2 assists he got over the 5 games (3 from last season and 2 from this season) he won’t be moved back. 2 goals against United might not be as great as it once was but whilst watching MOTD, I was both frustrated and impressed by Gross. He could, and probably should, had had a hattrick or at the least a brace but for great keeping and poor finishing. Gross has been getting in brilliant positions but the added bonus is he is on all set pieces plus he might have penalties since Maupay looks to be leaving. Gross would be my top pick for a Bailey replacement however he is £5.6m and so 0.1 too expensive for my team. Owned by 6.0%, he is still a great differential and like I’ve stated Brighton have a brilliant run of fixtures.

Now the last two players I am going to mention is the point where you might want to stop reading though I promise I haven’t been drinking! They are owned by 1.5% and 0.9% respectively, both priced at £5.5m but both come with a massive caveat, they play for Everton. They are Anthony Gordon and Demarai Gray. Their next few fixtures have the potential for attacking returns. Forest much like Newcastle got away from West Ham with a clean sheet intact due to some sort of miracle so Everton should have plenty of chances. Gordon would probably be the better option as he seems to be more attacking and more likely to score with an xG of 0.16 compared to Gray’s 0.09. The big thing to keep an eye on is these bids from Chelsea which could mean you end up having to get rid of him. Gray has more experience than his teammate and maybe has more ability to assist and score but his xA isn’t any better than his xG at 0.03. If you are looking for a massive punt up to GW6 and then WC, the Everton lads could be a good jump since Forest, Brentford and Leeds are winnable… or at least scorable fixtures.

Mentioning Brentford, I would love one of their players but that midfield is looking like a game of Russian Roulette, DaSilva won’t keep up his scoring run. Damsgaard could take minutes away from players. Jensen got taken off on 58 minutes in GW1 with a point only to turn around and get a goal, an assist, a clean sheet and all 3 bonus points in GW2 but still didn’t make it 90 minutes. If you want a Bee there is a man up top I would favour but I’m sure my good friend, Swirly, will tell you about him!

FORWARDS, by Swirly

Tightening our belts, from a financial perspective, is at the forefront of many minds at the moment and looking for bargains wherever you can is the name of the game. With expensive assets like Harry Kane, Mo Salah and Erling Haaland – more on the latter in a bit – there is the under-priced Gabriel Jesus. Sure, £8m is still a fair bit of cash, but then the two goals and two assists against Leicester to fully open his Arsenal Premier League account can only be the shape of things to come following the Brazilian’s preseason. All this from a player who was regularly benched at Man City too.

Owned by a whopping 77 per cent of FPL managers – another indicator of how cheap the 25-year-old is – the player is sure to be a popular pick for the captain’s armband this gameweek as the Gunners head to the south coast to face Bournemouth. Whilst the fixture will be played after the recent scorching temperatures have died down, the combination of Jesus’ form and the fact the Cherries so easily conceded four against Man City in Gameweek 2 could make the forward a hot prospect that will last longer than any British heatwave. After that, Fulham and Aston Villa make the newly-unenviable journey to the Emirates.

Ivan Toney is a player who has somehow escaped my radar, yet he has already scored against Leicester, before setting up two in the madness that was the 4-0 victory over Man United last weekend. Owned by 10 per cent of FPL managers – slightly fewer than the aforementioned Jesus – it won’t be long before that figure goes higher if he keeps up the form. Indeed, an impressive 388,000 players have seen it fit to bring the Northampton lad into their squads. Should he stay onside with management and resist the urge to berate his team on any social media videos, the forward could easily surpass the 12-goal figure of last season.

Back to this gameweek and it’s a very short drive further into London as Brentford play Fulham for the first time since the play-off final that was played behind closed doors in Wembley. That saw the Cottagers then play one season in the Premier League before going back down again, as Brentford went the opposite direction. Head to head, that particular game was the first time the Bees lost to their close neighbours since 2016, having won three and drawn two. Toney himself has only played in one meeting between the two sides, within a reserves fixture, but he could well reward the few who are brave enough to captain him.

Erling Haaland may have only registered an assist in a game where many tipped him to go berserk, as two sides met who will no doubt finish at opposite ends of the table come the end of the season. In that game, it was Kevin De Bruyne and Joao Cancelo who stole the show, however ignoring the Norwegian after what he did against West Ham would be at your peril. Especially as he appears in 60 per cent of teams, with only Jesus and Salah more popular picks.

This week, there will be more formidable opposition in Newcastle – a side who are yet to concede a single goal as they look to the future with a lot more hope than they could have had in recent years. Man City could well knock them into reality in this fixture, as they approach it on the back of five straight Premier League wins home and away, scoring a ridiculous 20 in that time. It would not be a surprise to see Haaland right in the middle of this, rewarding those who kept the faith of captainship in him.

And finally, it’s a nod to Aleksandar Mitrovic, even if he did happen to register an awkward -1 points last gameweek, mainly thanks to having a penalty saved in the goalless draw against Wolves at Molineux. If Fulham are to avoid a fate that befell them two years ago, this guy needs to keep up with the goalscoring and the aforementioned tie against Brentford could be an ideal opportunity.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Football Tips Gameweek 3. This article was written by OddDane, Rosco, Matt, Swirly.

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