Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. Choose 1 Goalkeeper and 3 defenders and then stick with them through thick and thin or spread it around and look for rotations that offer to provide better returns? It’s a question that I have previously pondered and tried both ways without any big conclusions. Until I actually had another sit down and thrashed out where clean sheets actually come from…
We do know that more clean sheets happen at home and are more likely against lower clubs. So on the surface home/away & Fixture difficulty seem to offer a good path for rotation, but does it actually hold true? Lets look at the actual math from last season when fully broken down.
FPL generally sets the pricing of the promoted or lower 6 teams at 4.5+. In rotation we usually consider a pairing of two bottom 4.5’s versus a mid @ 5.0 & a 4.0 non player.
I made a chart of clean sheets attained against the top 6, middle 8, and bottom 6 last season for each team; and then put the teams together into sections of best 6 Clean ‘sheeters’, the next 8, and the bottom 6. The extra line at the bottom is for perfect rotation Home / Away of a bottom 6.
The figures are percentage chance of a clean sheet in each fixture. The final column shows how many clean sheets in a season that translates to.
Put like this in a chart we can see straight away that rotation of the bottom 6 is barely better than no rotation of them and costs us 3 expected clean sheets across the season, that is 12 points or 3 emergency 4 point hits if our mid table pick gets red flagged for some reason.
Choosing rotation of the bottom 6 is actually worse than pointless.
Furthermore if we look at the chance of a clean sheet of the bottom 6 against mid teams it is a dismal 10% home & away, no better than a mid against top 6 teams.
So a bottom 6 team with a run of ‘good’ fixtures may be good for the real team winning, but likely pointless for our FPL picks.
Far better to pick a middle team with even a ‘poor’ run of fixtures.
Lets look at this in detail for this season.
Best 6 teams ARS, CHE, MCI, MUN, TOT, SOU
Next 8 teams BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, LIV, STO, LEI, WHU
Bottom 6 teams CRY, HUD, NEW, SWA, WAT, WBA
WBA have an excellent run of fixtures in the first few weeks, and maybe not surprisingly Foster & Hegazi at 4.5 have been fairly popular picks. But… their clean sheet chances each game are a mere 10%, 10%, 10%, 15%, 10% and 5%.
Compare this to LEI who have a dreadful start yet whose chances are 10%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 25% and 10%, a very good chance of 1 clean sheet.
So Foster and Hegazi are not bargains, but traps. Best to avoid the team with the lowest chance of all in the first 6GW’s. That is the bad news.
The good news is that football is settled not by FPL but on the pitch and those rules state teams get nothing for a clean sheet. So we get anomalies to profit from.
SOU are a mid table team but a best 6 clean ‘sheeter’, we have a choice of 5.0s available and particularly with good fixtures they are often a bargain.
Also among the middle group are some players priced at 4.5m. BUR proved it last season and should again. BRI I put there as the team most likely to emulate MID who got relegated, yet managed 12 clean sheets.
Hiding among the middle teams are two GKP’s, Hart & Begovic, both 4.5 playing for middle teams that have strengthened their defence and either could potentially be this seasons Heaton.
What is more if we buy both to offer coverage they actually offer a fixture rotation that jumps their potential up to best 6 in the first 6GW’s, and a price less than a best 6 without coverage.
Deciding if to spend extra on defence is a personal choice and decision based upon what is available further forward. Some defenders, although they cost extra, do offer excellent points potential either as Wing Backs or regular scorers from set pieces, these tend to be from the higher teams as they spend less time defending their own 18 yard line. Wing backs such as Alonso, Walker, Valencia, Rose and set pieces Milner, Cahill, Daniels, Kompany and the like. Spending budget here does detract from midfield but sometimes offers greater return for the spend.
The good news is that with care in picking under priced bargains we can still do well in achieving clean sheets, and add to that some goal and assist potential with selected players from within those teams.
For the record my own squad currently has Begovic, (Hart); Alonso, Kompany, Bertrand, (Mee, 4.0).
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
Vote on our Captain Poll Now
The League Codes for FF247 for the 2017/18 season are as follows:
The main public FF247 League , which anyone is welcome to join, can be accessed using the following code 1503-553 (auto-link below).
Join Our League – Quick Link
League Code: 1503-553
View league standings
Our Regulars League for 2017/18 is now open and has a cash prize pool of £300 paid directly to the winners from the FF247 management team. The first 5 places are paid out in a tiered system.
To enter this one you need to be an active and recognised site member and you need to e-mail us for the league code – Elleffcee@fantasyfootball247.co.uk
*terms and conditions apply and are available upon request. Management reserve the right to review membership of this league on an ongoing basis. If you enter and win a prize you have to have commented on the site at least 10 times for 3 consecutive months between January 2018 and March 2018 or you will not be considered for a prize.
Gameweek Tracker GW1-11
Liverpool fans – how long do you think Clyne is out for and do you think TAA takes his place for now?
Don’t know exactly Hatter, but he ain’t played any preseason games at all. So i think it may be a fair few weeks before hes even considered for 1st team action.
He played today and a couple before I believe
Yip. We also have Flannagan and Gomez that can play there.
They haven’t played Pre season though
Sorry Brooky but here comes another RMT!
I will take the West Brom double at the back to facilitate Alonso.
RLC will rotate with Mee until I see better options in the first few GW’s.
Thoughts and opinions are not just welcome but potentially Migraine relieving! 😉
Loftus in main squad and weak bench is really stinging my eyes.. Was wondering why this year azpliquetta is picket by literally.. Noone
Is Azpi as further forward as Alonso?
Most people have a weak (but playable) bench at the start (apart from Elliot and Brighton Def) however I may WC GW3 if I have to and sort that out.
Do you think the rest is worth it for the first 3 weeks?
No doubt alonso will bring us couple more points.. But than we need to think witch combo will give us more points in total.. Alonso + 4,5 Loftus or for example aspli + for example milivojevic (if on pens) or David Luiz + fraser/fer/mooy?
The rest look OK in my opinion.. Anyway we’re all gonna wc sooner than we think cause pre-seasons usually trick us.. :p
For me Alonso will be a season keeper and I may not have to WC early at all. Azpi got less points than Alonso and played around 800 minutes longer – it’s massive.
Hey Madhatter – whats the story with why Chelsea would want Sandro? I know its gone quite but thats LWB right?
Yup have to keep an eye on that. I almost want that to happen though if you know what I mean?
so Luton can claim their spot as champions?
No seriously – I dont know what you mean? Explain ?
I almost want that to happen so I can save money on Alonso.
My understanding from comments on here RLC wont start. Otherwise looks good
Then Carrol will play and I’ll have to address it but I reckon he’ll play
Hatters
Brilliant start to the season for your boys. Superb.
Carroll assisted twice today and one of the others was all his work until a late deflection.
Cheers mate. Great start for us, hope that’s not load spurted!
Didn’t know that about Carrol – good to know
RE Liverpools penalty taker. Milner said to Firmino ‘you won the penalty, are you feeling confident’ Bobby replied with ‘yes’, so Milner said ‘you take it then’. Got a feeling Milner is still the main penalty taker when on the pitch.
Sounds like he’s easing him in
ooh eerrrrr.
Thats take team bonding too far,
Okay, I’ve got a draft that seems pretty solid. Things that stand out: No Arsenal or Chelsea…
Thoughts?
Looks good mate
Daniels has crap fixtures though. I would downgrade him and upgrade Mooy to Ince?
Concerns over Lindel Rangel is redmond best in that price range? especially if you’re playing mooy and just rod every game
Who will win the PL?
City
I’m inclined to agree although it pains me to say it
well you are somewhat linked to Ronaldo
Yeah I think City will too
City
City
Thinking they have the best squad to be able cover league and champions league although it’s probably not a good idea to have 3 city with rotation when CL starts
Luton
You’re mad alright
I tell you what, give it 3 years and I GUARUNTEE you I still have a morbid fascination of road kill!
Hey Whols, i’ve mailed you, re doubles.
I emailed him/her but undelivered
Have you mailed at vaskarchakraborty23@gmail.com ? because I have got a mail from thelweiss. Just dont know if thats you or tiger
Liverpool.
Ah, go on then if we’re having a laugh – Bournemouth 😉
Better chance I would say
Oh no he didn’t!
Oh give over Elle!
Swansea & Huddersfield to avoid relegation then
If Siggy goes Swansea will definitely go down imo
I think Swansea are going down with or without Siggy
Chelsea . Nah seriously I think City
I am quite confident that this year’s Champions league will be won by any English Club(prefer Man utd or Liverpool). Just wonder what the odds will be?
Oh Trippier! How serious do we reckon?