Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. Choose 1 Goalkeeper and 3 defenders and then stick with them through thick and thin or spread it around and look for rotations that offer to provide better returns? It’s a question that I have previously pondered and tried both ways without any big conclusions. Until I actually had another sit down and thrashed out where clean sheets actually come from…
We do know that more clean sheets happen at home and are more likely against lower clubs. So on the surface home/away & Fixture difficulty seem to offer a good path for rotation, but does it actually hold true? Lets look at the actual math from last season when fully broken down.
FPL generally sets the pricing of the promoted or lower 6 teams at 4.5+. In rotation we usually consider a pairing of two bottom 4.5’s versus a mid @ 5.0 & a 4.0 non player.
I made a chart of clean sheets attained against the top 6, middle 8, and bottom 6 last season for each team; and then put the teams together into sections of best 6 Clean ‘sheeters’, the next 8, and the bottom 6. The extra line at the bottom is for perfect rotation Home / Away of a bottom 6.
The figures are percentage chance of a clean sheet in each fixture. The final column shows how many clean sheets in a season that translates to.
Put like this in a chart we can see straight away that rotation of the bottom 6 is barely better than no rotation of them and costs us 3 expected clean sheets across the season, that is 12 points or 3 emergency 4 point hits if our mid table pick gets red flagged for some reason.
Choosing rotation of the bottom 6 is actually worse than pointless.
Furthermore if we look at the chance of a clean sheet of the bottom 6 against mid teams it is a dismal 10% home & away, no better than a mid against top 6 teams.
So a bottom 6 team with a run of ‘good’ fixtures may be good for the real team winning, but likely pointless for our FPL picks.
Far better to pick a middle team with even a ‘poor’ run of fixtures.
Lets look at this in detail for this season.
Best 6 teams ARS, CHE, MCI, MUN, TOT, SOU
Next 8 teams BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, LIV, STO, LEI, WHU
Bottom 6 teams CRY, HUD, NEW, SWA, WAT, WBA
WBA have an excellent run of fixtures in the first few weeks, and maybe not surprisingly Foster & Hegazi at 4.5 have been fairly popular picks. But… their clean sheet chances each game are a mere 10%, 10%, 10%, 15%, 10% and 5%.
Compare this to LEI who have a dreadful start yet whose chances are 10%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 25% and 10%, a very good chance of 1 clean sheet.
So Foster and Hegazi are not bargains, but traps. Best to avoid the team with the lowest chance of all in the first 6GW’s. That is the bad news.
The good news is that football is settled not by FPL but on the pitch and those rules state teams get nothing for a clean sheet. So we get anomalies to profit from.
SOU are a mid table team but a best 6 clean ‘sheeter’, we have a choice of 5.0s available and particularly with good fixtures they are often a bargain.
Also among the middle group are some players priced at 4.5m. BUR proved it last season and should again. BRI I put there as the team most likely to emulate MID who got relegated, yet managed 12 clean sheets.
Hiding among the middle teams are two GKP’s, Hart & Begovic, both 4.5 playing for middle teams that have strengthened their defence and either could potentially be this seasons Heaton.
What is more if we buy both to offer coverage they actually offer a fixture rotation that jumps their potential up to best 6 in the first 6GW’s, and a price less than a best 6 without coverage.
Deciding if to spend extra on defence is a personal choice and decision based upon what is available further forward. Some defenders, although they cost extra, do offer excellent points potential either as Wing Backs or regular scorers from set pieces, these tend to be from the higher teams as they spend less time defending their own 18 yard line. Wing backs such as Alonso, Walker, Valencia, Rose and set pieces Milner, Cahill, Daniels, Kompany and the like. Spending budget here does detract from midfield but sometimes offers greater return for the spend.
The good news is that with care in picking under priced bargains we can still do well in achieving clean sheets, and add to that some goal and assist potential with selected players from within those teams.
For the record my own squad currently has Begovic, (Hart); Alonso, Kompany, Bertrand, (Mee, 4.0).
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
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Gameweek Tracker GW1-11
Any comments welocome!
piksi
I would go Cedric instead of Daniels. Other than that it looks very strong.
Thanks Gallant P, just realised Southampton have better fixutere.
Range luxury isn’t a starter
Lol auto predict
Need some opinions on Jesus/Aguero. Do you think Aguero is worth the extra money? Very torn at the moment.
For me it is effectively downgrading a £5.5m defender to a £4.5m to make way.
AT
I would have Aguero personally and a reliable 4.5 defender.
Both strikers will play and not either of them for 90 minutes each game so it is just personal preference.
It is very difficult! I’ve actually just switched formation so now it means dropping a midfielder which I’m not really too keen on doing. Will post team later. How’s yours coming along?
If you go Jesus’s to start with it takes 2 transfer to get Aguero and only 1 the other way around
Very true, although barring any injuries I think it will be a Liverpool mid ‘pick and stick’ situation.
With Kane or Lukaku?
I’d go Aguero. Currently he’s more explosive so a better captain candidate. Jesus could become that this season
Cheers Smash. His explosiveness is what worries me.
AT Kun for me to start see how they set then decide 😉
Cedric and Firmino or Alonso and Gayle?
Cedric and Firmino (if he would be your only Liverpool cover).
I would have Salah and Fab/Willian GP so will be a double up
The Firmino penalty thing would still sway me towards him and Cedric I think.
Yeah that’s the thing that has bought me back to Firmino. Still very unsure about him. Liverpool will always get a lot of pens
C+F
Yes would have to say Cedric & Firmino but it would be hard to get rid of Alonso see how he plays today , Double Pool not convinced 😉
Interesting I was expecting more the other way.
Do we not think Sturridge will play up top sometimes with Firminho pushed wide?
Morning all ! Thoughts on this lot ? Like many I’m struggling with my 4th mid and 3rd striker !
I like it Brooky, although maybe Ince and Fraser in the midfield is a little lightweight. Carroll got three assists yesterday – there’s your fourth mid 😉
Yeah noticed that,very interesting !
Although can’t see Swansea being a goal-scoring force this season haha.
If Siggy goes I can see Carrol getting points
I like this team brooky
I like it Brooky. I think everyone is struggling there. Davies does feel the most natural replacement for Trippier. Still feels annoying that one
Or could be this …?? Zaha could be Willian/Fabregas ??
I like it Brookyboy I like the Kom pick when you have Kane does deplete your funds somewhat but he’s worth it it’s a good team mate 😉
So if you were to bring in Aguero for Jesus in this side, how would you do it?
The bench probably needs an extra £0.5m in it. Martial there until he is benched for the Super Cup haha.
I’d leave Jesus in….not sure on the Martial pick like.
Also I wrestled with J Rod in and out of my team.Just not sure about West Brom getting goals.
We’re thinking very much along the same lines here. Martial depends on the Super Cup (not very hopeful) and JRod is giving me a headache. Half-tempted to bung Mounie in there. Town seem to be scoring goals at the same rate they are conceding them
Ha yeah.I considered Ritchie and Mounie over Ince and Gayle,would leave me .5m too..
AT The obvious one is Alonso iether Kom or Daniels to raise extra .5 m for bench Martial could be a steal if he can secure a starting place 😉
Would you take out Alonso to enable Aguero though? I’m not sure I could face taking him out. NOt yet 😉