Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. Choose 1 Goalkeeper and 3 defenders and then stick with them through thick and thin or spread it around and look for rotations that offer to provide better returns? It’s a question that I have previously pondered and tried both ways without any big conclusions. Until I actually had another sit down and thrashed out where clean sheets actually come from…
We do know that more clean sheets happen at home and are more likely against lower clubs. So on the surface home/away & Fixture difficulty seem to offer a good path for rotation, but does it actually hold true? Lets look at the actual math from last season when fully broken down.
FPL generally sets the pricing of the promoted or lower 6 teams at 4.5+. In rotation we usually consider a pairing of two bottom 4.5’s versus a mid @ 5.0 & a 4.0 non player.
I made a chart of clean sheets attained against the top 6, middle 8, and bottom 6 last season for each team; and then put the teams together into sections of best 6 Clean ‘sheeters’, the next 8, and the bottom 6. The extra line at the bottom is for perfect rotation Home / Away of a bottom 6.
The figures are percentage chance of a clean sheet in each fixture. The final column shows how many clean sheets in a season that translates to.
Put like this in a chart we can see straight away that rotation of the bottom 6 is barely better than no rotation of them and costs us 3 expected clean sheets across the season, that is 12 points or 3 emergency 4 point hits if our mid table pick gets red flagged for some reason.
Choosing rotation of the bottom 6 is actually worse than pointless.
Furthermore if we look at the chance of a clean sheet of the bottom 6 against mid teams it is a dismal 10% home & away, no better than a mid against top 6 teams.
So a bottom 6 team with a run of ‘good’ fixtures may be good for the real team winning, but likely pointless for our FPL picks.
Far better to pick a middle team with even a ‘poor’ run of fixtures.
Lets look at this in detail for this season.
Best 6 teams ARS, CHE, MCI, MUN, TOT, SOU
Next 8 teams BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, LIV, STO, LEI, WHU
Bottom 6 teams CRY, HUD, NEW, SWA, WAT, WBA
WBA have an excellent run of fixtures in the first few weeks, and maybe not surprisingly Foster & Hegazi at 4.5 have been fairly popular picks. But… their clean sheet chances each game are a mere 10%, 10%, 10%, 15%, 10% and 5%.
Compare this to LEI who have a dreadful start yet whose chances are 10%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 25% and 10%, a very good chance of 1 clean sheet.
So Foster and Hegazi are not bargains, but traps. Best to avoid the team with the lowest chance of all in the first 6GW’s. That is the bad news.
The good news is that football is settled not by FPL but on the pitch and those rules state teams get nothing for a clean sheet. So we get anomalies to profit from.
SOU are a mid table team but a best 6 clean ‘sheeter’, we have a choice of 5.0s available and particularly with good fixtures they are often a bargain.
Also among the middle group are some players priced at 4.5m. BUR proved it last season and should again. BRI I put there as the team most likely to emulate MID who got relegated, yet managed 12 clean sheets.
Hiding among the middle teams are two GKP’s, Hart & Begovic, both 4.5 playing for middle teams that have strengthened their defence and either could potentially be this seasons Heaton.
What is more if we buy both to offer coverage they actually offer a fixture rotation that jumps their potential up to best 6 in the first 6GW’s, and a price less than a best 6 without coverage.
Deciding if to spend extra on defence is a personal choice and decision based upon what is available further forward. Some defenders, although they cost extra, do offer excellent points potential either as Wing Backs or regular scorers from set pieces, these tend to be from the higher teams as they spend less time defending their own 18 yard line. Wing backs such as Alonso, Walker, Valencia, Rose and set pieces Milner, Cahill, Daniels, Kompany and the like. Spending budget here does detract from midfield but sometimes offers greater return for the spend.
The good news is that with care in picking under priced bargains we can still do well in achieving clean sheets, and add to that some goal and assist potential with selected players from within those teams.
For the record my own squad currently has Begovic, (Hart); Alonso, Kompany, Bertrand, (Mee, 4.0).
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
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Gameweek Tracker GW1-11
If Trippier don’t make it is Davies the most natural replacement? Though they might sign a RB
What do you mean about Trippier not making it?
Injured mate
Ah bloody hell!!! Looks like it’s back to the drawing board again
He left yesterday with a protective boot and on crutches it don’t look good
Gents
What do you think to this?
I like it mate but there’s no spurs attack which could bite you
Nice looking team. The bench is obviously very weak, and double Liverpool and City is a little punt, but could pay off big time. Personally I’d take David Luis over arsenal defense, but that’s just my personal preference.
I like it. Spurs beat a full strength Juve team at Wembley yesterday so it’s dangerous. I know all your defence should and probably will start but it’s not guaranteed
LFC play gw1 then CL midweek, Gw2 then CL midweek, Gw3 then go to the International Break, Gw4 then if they advance in CL midweek, then GW5. I am not saying that they will rest Firmino and Salah for some games, but just make you are comfortable with the scenario. Their CL opponent is tough, they will have to put out a strong team to advance.
Think you are better off with Myhill at this point. If Hammers do let Adrian go to Newcastle you will be left with no back-up keeper, at least with Myhill you are guaranteed a keeper if Foster goes down. Keep an eye out for Cedric and make sure you get a good read of the presser, I think he starts, but I am not 100% on that and you could be left with 2 defenders in week 1 if he doesn’t.
Good point Mito. Didn’t even think about the CL
That’s a very good point about Liverpool there Mito
Cheers guys
Could do this?
That looks really nice.
Now I have no city attacker!!
Too many options this year!!
Cheers mito
I think I prefer that. I’m so tempted to go Aguero over Lukaku
If Lukaku never had such a high ownership I would do the same!
Morning all,
Charity shield today and less than a week to go! I have the following team at the moment which I roughly keep arriving back at with recent attemps to make changes so probably very close to my starting line up. My back up selections for Trippier and Phillips if they remain injured are probably Redmond and Zabaleta plus change keeper so I dont have 3 soton. Hoping Phillips and Trippier will be ok. Any ideas?
Nice all round coverage there. Double Southampton defense would be a concern, but fixtures are favorable, so could pay off big time. If Phillips is out I’m not sure I’d go triple Southampton. Maybe look at Ritchie? Trippier to Davies seems the obvious move there as well.
Oh and I’d gave fabregas or willian over zaha, certainly whilst hazard is out anyway.
I will look at that Banjo. See how they line up vs Arsenal later. Thanks
Zabaleta works with Ake as a rotation defender. If you decide to get someone different or Trippier ends up staying on your team if he looks like he will make GW1, I drop Ake. He has 5 really difficult fixtures in the first 10 GWs. So unless you have a rotation partner for him he seems like a lot to pay for with those fixtures. Rest of team looks solid. Phillips should be fine, he started yesterday in their last friendly.
Cheers Mito
I think I’m near to settling on this lot. What do people think? Players I’m particularly concerned at not having are Kun & Alonso.
I like it Banjo. Personally I’d swap Lindelhof to a 4.5 and then get Alonso or Aguero but it’s a cracking team.
Cheers Smash. I reckon united will have the best defense this season, so really would like some coverage. I guess I could consider Davies to a 4.5 to enable Alonso. Don’t suppose you’ve any who rotates well with Leicester?
I said it because I’m not sure he’s first choice. I have Dunk rotating with Morgan. It’s a shocker of a first game though
@Banjo, look in the tracker mate, if you scroll down we put down the first 10 GWs for Leicester rotation buddies.
I keep an eye on Adrian not moving to Newcastle, if he does I just go Myhill over Elliott. Lindelof is shaky, think the Madrid game in a couple of days will give us the last clue, so just be aware of what minutes he gets and if a full starting team is out there, if he is in it. I am not completely in love with Luiz or any CFC defender that will be mostly dependent on clean sheets. They have the Burnley game and after that is tricky for a while plus CL kicks in.
Cheers Mito… how’s your team coming along?
Not much action with my team, if it wasn’t for doing RMTs and site team stuff in the background, I have no idea what I was going to do. I really haven’t done anything with the team, I was waiting until the United vs Madrid game before I started to really iron out my GW1 team.
Diego Maradona decides to come out of retirement and play for Chelsea, he goes into the changing room to find all his team mates looking a bit glum.
“What’s up?” He asks.
“Well, we’re having trouble getting motivated for this game. We know it’s important but it’s only Liverpool. They’re shit and we can’t be bothered”.
Maradona looks at them and says “Well I know I’m a bit fat and old, but I reckon I can beat them by myself, you lads go down the pub.”
So Maradona goes out to play Liverpool by himself and the rest of the Chelsea team go off for a few beers. After a few pints they wonder how the game is going, so they get the landlord to put the TV on. A big cheer goes up as the screen shows
“Chelsea 1 (Maradona 10 minutes) – Liverpool 0
He is beating Liverpool all by himself! Anyway, a few more beers later and the game is forgotten until someone remembers “It must be full time now, let’s see how he got on” They put the TV on.
“Result from Stamford Bridge: Chelsea 1 (Maradona 10 minutes) – Liverpool 1 (Sturridge 89 minutes)
They can’t believe it, he has single handed got a draw against Liverpool! They rush back to the Stadium to congratulate him. They find him in the dressing room, still in his gear, sat with his head in his hands.
He refuses to look at them. “I’ve let you down I’ve let you down”
“Don’t be stupid Diego, you got a draw against Liverpool all by yourself. And they only scored at the very very end!”
Maradonna says “No, No, I have, I’ve let you down!. I got sent off after 12 minutes!”?
Ha ha brilliant
Brilliant!
Does any on know when Rose returns? The FPL site doesn’t give a date
Spurs are never helpful with injury news. I don’t think he’s due back in the next month anyway
So would you do Davies and Foster or DDG/Lloris and Dunk?
Probably will be back in September.
I go DDG and Suttner
Yeah that’s what I thought cheers Mito.
I’d prob go the other way with Foster and Davies though hope Trippier makes it
Right now I’m tossing between the idea of going without any 5,5 player and having Heaton, Suttner, Cedric and Riedewald instead of Foster, Mee, Trippier and Cedric. What do you think of that?