Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. Choose 1 Goalkeeper and 3 defenders and then stick with them through thick and thin or spread it around and look for rotations that offer to provide better returns? It’s a question that I have previously pondered and tried both ways without any big conclusions. Until I actually had another sit down and thrashed out where clean sheets actually come from…
We do know that more clean sheets happen at home and are more likely against lower clubs. So on the surface home/away & Fixture difficulty seem to offer a good path for rotation, but does it actually hold true? Lets look at the actual math from last season when fully broken down.
FPL generally sets the pricing of the promoted or lower 6 teams at 4.5+. In rotation we usually consider a pairing of two bottom 4.5’s versus a mid @ 5.0 & a 4.0 non player.
I made a chart of clean sheets attained against the top 6, middle 8, and bottom 6 last season for each team; and then put the teams together into sections of best 6 Clean ‘sheeters’, the next 8, and the bottom 6. The extra line at the bottom is for perfect rotation Home / Away of a bottom 6.
The figures are percentage chance of a clean sheet in each fixture. The final column shows how many clean sheets in a season that translates to.
Put like this in a chart we can see straight away that rotation of the bottom 6 is barely better than no rotation of them and costs us 3 expected clean sheets across the season, that is 12 points or 3 emergency 4 point hits if our mid table pick gets red flagged for some reason.
Choosing rotation of the bottom 6 is actually worse than pointless.
Furthermore if we look at the chance of a clean sheet of the bottom 6 against mid teams it is a dismal 10% home & away, no better than a mid against top 6 teams.
So a bottom 6 team with a run of ‘good’ fixtures may be good for the real team winning, but likely pointless for our FPL picks.
Far better to pick a middle team with even a ‘poor’ run of fixtures.
Lets look at this in detail for this season.
Best 6 teams ARS, CHE, MCI, MUN, TOT, SOU
Next 8 teams BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, LIV, STO, LEI, WHU
Bottom 6 teams CRY, HUD, NEW, SWA, WAT, WBA
WBA have an excellent run of fixtures in the first few weeks, and maybe not surprisingly Foster & Hegazi at 4.5 have been fairly popular picks. But… their clean sheet chances each game are a mere 10%, 10%, 10%, 15%, 10% and 5%.
Compare this to LEI who have a dreadful start yet whose chances are 10%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 25% and 10%, a very good chance of 1 clean sheet.
So Foster and Hegazi are not bargains, but traps. Best to avoid the team with the lowest chance of all in the first 6GW’s. That is the bad news.
The good news is that football is settled not by FPL but on the pitch and those rules state teams get nothing for a clean sheet. So we get anomalies to profit from.
SOU are a mid table team but a best 6 clean ‘sheeter’, we have a choice of 5.0s available and particularly with good fixtures they are often a bargain.
Also among the middle group are some players priced at 4.5m. BUR proved it last season and should again. BRI I put there as the team most likely to emulate MID who got relegated, yet managed 12 clean sheets.
Hiding among the middle teams are two GKP’s, Hart & Begovic, both 4.5 playing for middle teams that have strengthened their defence and either could potentially be this seasons Heaton.
What is more if we buy both to offer coverage they actually offer a fixture rotation that jumps their potential up to best 6 in the first 6GW’s, and a price less than a best 6 without coverage.
Deciding if to spend extra on defence is a personal choice and decision based upon what is available further forward. Some defenders, although they cost extra, do offer excellent points potential either as Wing Backs or regular scorers from set pieces, these tend to be from the higher teams as they spend less time defending their own 18 yard line. Wing backs such as Alonso, Walker, Valencia, Rose and set pieces Milner, Cahill, Daniels, Kompany and the like. Spending budget here does detract from midfield but sometimes offers greater return for the spend.
The good news is that with care in picking under priced bargains we can still do well in achieving clean sheets, and add to that some goal and assist potential with selected players from within those teams.
For the record my own squad currently has Begovic, (Hart); Alonso, Kompany, Bertrand, (Mee, 4.0).
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
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Gameweek Tracker GW1-11
Hey gang. Trying to achieve balance around the team. Still tinkering but have this as my latest draft. Danilo ok for now until Mendy comes in. Bar that the double palace is a gamble could work. Thoughts pls
Double Palace is a bit much for me. On the whole looks good
+1 I’d have Defoe instead.
Or could switch to one of the Chelsea 7m mids?
Cheers Smash. Hows the team coming along ?
Cheers Matt.
Still keeps changing. Gayle injury has messed me up a bit. Here is what it looks like currently.
Cheers Dreamers – was thinking Willian or Cesc – but the rotation risk put me off – trying for guaranteed starters
Hey Smash, that’s solid ! – only concerns i would highlight are Morgan and Milivojevic. I know Mili has done well preseason, but do you think he is nailed on to start
I’m ok with Morgan I think. Rotates ok with Dunk plus I think Leicester will do alright. Milovojevic is a problem I think. He’s nailed but he has played a few games in defence.
What do you guys think of one of these options?
A. Foster, Cedric, Davies and Mee
B. Heaton, Suttner, Cedric and Riedewald
C. DDG, Betrand, Riedewald and Willian to Ritchie
Didn’t like how Chelsea played today on the attack so might leave them out for a while due to their fixtures.
A for me
Know nothing re the Brighton defender and the new Palace guy – so probably A but C sounds decent as well
C for me
RMT!
The three 4.5 defenders will rotated depending on the fixture.
Team
Looks pretty solid to me KP
Looks pretty strong to me. Only two things I’d consider is:
1. Is Mhkitaryan a guaranteed starter? He has looked class in pre season though
2. Do you need Alli if you already have Kane? We don’t know whether Tottenham can replicate their home form at Wembley, and as you don’t have any Chelsea attacking coverage, you may want to consider a change
But overall a strong looking team
Please RMT all suggestions welcome
Fabregas and Milovejevic or Ritchie and Ince. Will mean no Chelsea coverage though
ritchie ince !
Please RMT all suggestions welcome
Ollie
Not convinced you’ll get many attacking returns from either Bailly or Yoshida. Cedric and another would probably do better.
Is sane nailed on? I had him in my team but concerned about rotation as pep has many options at his disposal.
Other than that looks pretty solid to me.
Which team would you go for?
Team 1 or Team 2
Team 1 Ian.
Team 1
Two is more balanced Ian.
Kane is class – but the combo of fab over JWP and Cedric with potentials of cleansheets and defo playing appeal more.
Danilo is a question mark but if he keeps his place he’ll be a bargain I reckon. Could rotate with Sane and Walker