Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. Choose 1 Goalkeeper and 3 defenders and then stick with them through thick and thin or spread it around and look for rotations that offer to provide better returns? It’s a question that I have previously pondered and tried both ways without any big conclusions. Until I actually had another sit down and thrashed out where clean sheets actually come from…
We do know that more clean sheets happen at home and are more likely against lower clubs. So on the surface home/away & Fixture difficulty seem to offer a good path for rotation, but does it actually hold true? Lets look at the actual math from last season when fully broken down.
FPL generally sets the pricing of the promoted or lower 6 teams at 4.5+. In rotation we usually consider a pairing of two bottom 4.5’s versus a mid @ 5.0 & a 4.0 non player.
I made a chart of clean sheets attained against the top 6, middle 8, and bottom 6 last season for each team; and then put the teams together into sections of best 6 Clean ‘sheeters’, the next 8, and the bottom 6. The extra line at the bottom is for perfect rotation Home / Away of a bottom 6.
The figures are percentage chance of a clean sheet in each fixture. The final column shows how many clean sheets in a season that translates to.
Put like this in a chart we can see straight away that rotation of the bottom 6 is barely better than no rotation of them and costs us 3 expected clean sheets across the season, that is 12 points or 3 emergency 4 point hits if our mid table pick gets red flagged for some reason.
Choosing rotation of the bottom 6 is actually worse than pointless.
Furthermore if we look at the chance of a clean sheet of the bottom 6 against mid teams it is a dismal 10% home & away, no better than a mid against top 6 teams.
So a bottom 6 team with a run of ‘good’ fixtures may be good for the real team winning, but likely pointless for our FPL picks.
Far better to pick a middle team with even a ‘poor’ run of fixtures.
Lets look at this in detail for this season.
Best 6 teams ARS, CHE, MCI, MUN, TOT, SOU
Next 8 teams BOU, BRI, BUR, EVE, LIV, STO, LEI, WHU
Bottom 6 teams CRY, HUD, NEW, SWA, WAT, WBA
WBA have an excellent run of fixtures in the first few weeks, and maybe not surprisingly Foster & Hegazi at 4.5 have been fairly popular picks. But… their clean sheet chances each game are a mere 10%, 10%, 10%, 15%, 10% and 5%.
Compare this to LEI who have a dreadful start yet whose chances are 10%, 40%, 10%, 10%, 25% and 10%, a very good chance of 1 clean sheet.
So Foster and Hegazi are not bargains, but traps. Best to avoid the team with the lowest chance of all in the first 6GW’s. That is the bad news.
The good news is that football is settled not by FPL but on the pitch and those rules state teams get nothing for a clean sheet. So we get anomalies to profit from.
SOU are a mid table team but a best 6 clean ‘sheeter’, we have a choice of 5.0s available and particularly with good fixtures they are often a bargain.
Also among the middle group are some players priced at 4.5m. BUR proved it last season and should again. BRI I put there as the team most likely to emulate MID who got relegated, yet managed 12 clean sheets.
Hiding among the middle teams are two GKP’s, Hart & Begovic, both 4.5 playing for middle teams that have strengthened their defence and either could potentially be this seasons Heaton.
What is more if we buy both to offer coverage they actually offer a fixture rotation that jumps their potential up to best 6 in the first 6GW’s, and a price less than a best 6 without coverage.
Deciding if to spend extra on defence is a personal choice and decision based upon what is available further forward. Some defenders, although they cost extra, do offer excellent points potential either as Wing Backs or regular scorers from set pieces, these tend to be from the higher teams as they spend less time defending their own 18 yard line. Wing backs such as Alonso, Walker, Valencia, Rose and set pieces Milner, Cahill, Daniels, Kompany and the like. Spending budget here does detract from midfield but sometimes offers greater return for the spend.
The good news is that with care in picking under priced bargains we can still do well in achieving clean sheets, and add to that some goal and assist potential with selected players from within those teams.
For the record my own squad currently has Begovic, (Hart); Alonso, Kompany, Bertrand, (Mee, 4.0).
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League 2017/18 Defensive Rotation Potential. This article was written by Takasaki Tiger
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Gameweek Tracker GW1-11
No Lallana for first 2 months at least
Morning all
A or B please, can’t make my own mind up I’m afraid …
B
So it’s J Rod, KDB and Alonso Vs Jesus, Pogba and Hegazi
Leaning towards second team but there’s not a lot in it
Second team
a) You have doubled defence in the first, & they are wba
b) Myself not convinced Pogba benefit over Mkhi & you already have Lukaku
Frontline A, backline B mate; however shall you make the two amalgamate?
KDB and Alonso will outscore Jesus and Hegazi I reckon so mind made up. Cheers lads
Heard Coutinho might not be in the squad for last friendly. Maybe it’s a sign
better not be, he signed for 5 years he should stay
He has a ‘back injury’. Probably heading to Barcelona for treatment
It would reduce some of the 5 way goal scoring rotation nightmare there for us.
Salah and Mane would be less appealing to have without Coutinho
Although I imagine Salah will be on Free kicks if he goes?
Barcelona have a gap to fill and 222m to spend they got suarez should be easier to get Coutinho now compared
I agree Ronaldo
Hi Guys any suggestions would be appreciated
There is a slight chance that none of the back line play but definite uncertainty amongst all of them. Others look good
cheers
+1
Cedric back late may miss start, Yoshida an easy alternate – or you need a definite starter for 4.5 pick
Lindo will come good but Mour hasnt yet played him next to Bailly preseason which is suggesting he doesnt come in yet Darmian a possible alternate, Trippier the safer popular pick for 5.5
It would be sweet if an lfc 4.5 was a nailed starter but Klopp not predictable there, & you need a nailed 4.5.
I’m wondering are Newcastle bottom 6 and Brighton middle?
Well me too,
I put Brighton there as illustration for Middlesborough though it would be very punty to assume that early doors
Newcastle, I dont see as solid mid table defensively this year either,
.
Personal opinion has to guide which teams you place where, and its likely change during the season
The main point is not to get sucked into rotation blindly.
Yes it’s a very good post and has a valid point don’t scrimp too much in defence if you want clean sheets
There are usually bargains tho, I fancy a STK 4.5 will be in my squad not too much in the future
There may be some picking from WHU Ogbonna,Masuaka; BUR of course, SOU everyone knows, BOU Francis may get a run sometime.
But there are so many good picks in the premium Wing backs its hard to see past them.
It’s about balance is feel in defence with the premium and those 4.5 that can be called upon when needed
Thanks Tiger, great article this is the area I always struggle with & have never found a strategy I am happy with. Real food for thought!
It was from failing with blind rotations over several seasons made do the math.
I’m rather glad it wasn’t just my awful choice of players to blame
Now I just have to find the reason I fail with the mids & fwds & I’ll be top OR !!
Well, I have an excuse, being Welsh I seriously didn’t mind when he missed Bale’s free kick.
(I claim the US 5th on the Iceland game.)
I don’t think he’s a top 6 keeper, and not one to be playing tika-taka with at the back.
But with Zabaleta,Reid & Fonte in front of him I think 4.5 is a steal