Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 12

Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 12

Welcome to Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 12. The FPL gods are clearly conspiring against me as yet again I’m forced it’s my turn to write the Tips article immediately after an international break when every man and his dog appears to have a yellow flag. I’m probably exaggerating somewhat but Eden Hazard and Diego Costa are flagged and between them they have in excess of 300k transfers in this week. It just goes to show the importance of not shooting your load when it comes to making transfers (sometimes I really should listen to my own advice). We’re now 11 game-weeks into the season and some of us are seriously lagging behind and we’re now reaching the stage where we need to take the odd gamble if we’re to remain competitive over the remainder of the season. With this in mind I’ve decided to focus on a number of differentials this week. It’s worth noting that we’re not suggesting that these players are the best options from their respective teams, far from it in one or two cases, but they do typically represent the best differential from that team. We have included one or two players who are currently yellow flagged so do check back with us on Friday when Cookie brings us all the news from Around the Grounds.

Goalkeepers

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[/three_fifth]As always I’ll kick off with the premium keepers. Five keepers namely Bravo, Cech, Courtois, de Gea and Lloris fall into this category. We’ll rule out Cech and de Gea straight away as neither constitutes a differential and we’ll also rule out Bravo as City are struggling to come to terms with the concept of a clean sheet. Thibaut Courtois currently features in 9.7% of teams and is the 7th most popular keeper in FPL. Is he a differential? We think so. Having conceded nine goals in their first six games it’s difficult to believe that Chelsea now have the league’s 2nd best defence. However since Conte has shifted to three at the back Courtois has kept five clean sheets on the bounce to bring his total for the season to six, two more than the next best. On paper Chelsea have a couple of difficult fixtures in game-weeks 13&14 (Spurs & City) but given their current form it won’t come as much of a surprise should they keep one or both team scoreless and following these two games they’ve got a great run of fixtures through to the end of the year. At £5.5m he’s the cheapest route into the Chelsea rear-guard and given said current form he represents excellent value for money. On the basis that Spurs have the best defence in the league and the fact that he features in just 7% of teams then Hugo Lloris deserves a mention. Unfortunately just like last season Spurs are not keeping as many clean sheets as one would expect. The absence of Toby Alderweireld has clearly been felt of late and perhaps it would be best to avoid LLoris until the Belgian is back. (I realise I’m supposed to tip who to buy as opposed to who not to buy!)

So where else can we turn in our endeavours to find a decent differential? Given Stoke’s fixtures Lee Grant is the obvious choice but with Jack Butland back in training it might not be the best of ideas to bring in Grant. Fraser Forster (4.4%) probably deserves some consideration. Yes Southampton have shipped 12 goals in their opening 11 games but only four teams have a better record and he has picked up three clean sheets. Obviously they play Liverpool this weekend and you would have to say that a clean sheet is unlikely but after that they do have a reasonable run of fixtures. Should Leicester rediscover the art of defending Ron-Robert Zieler (0.4%) will be worth some consideration in the short term as Leicester have some great fixtures on paper, the only problem is that the West Brom game was on paper a good fixture!

Defenders

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[/three_fifth]Having kept five consecutive clean sheets you might have expected the Chelsea defence to be extremely popular and while they have all seen a slight increase in ownership over recent weeks none of them have what you would describe as a high ownership percentage. With an ownership of 13.5% Azpilicueta is the most popular. With an ownership of just 2.9% it is Marcus Alonso who we want to highlight this week. Alonso came into the side in GW7 when Conte went to three at the back with the Spaniard operating as a left wing back. In those five games Alonso has picked up 39pts thanks to a goal, an assist and a solitary bonus point as well as the five clean sheets. Unsurprisingly his attacking stats are off the charts when compared to Azpi, Cahill and Luiz. In fact when you compare him to attacking full backs from opposition teams such as Walker, Bellerin or Clyne to name but a few, their stats are nowhere near as impressive as his. Given the brand of football that Chelsea are currently playing we would expect Alonso to pick up both clean sheets and attacking returns over the coming game-weeks. So if you’re looking for a premium defender around whom you can build your defence look no further.

In terms of identifying defenders with a combination of low ownership, good form and decent fixtures Alonso is clearly the standout candidate and it’s somewhat downhill from here but we’ll do our best to unearth a number of other options. In terms of fixtures both Leicester & West Brom have what can only be described as a relatively easy run. Christian Fuchs at £5.4m is actually the most expensive Leicester defender but with an ownership of 8.6% he’s actually a decent differential particularly when you consider how attacking he is. Granted he’s no Marcus Alonso but he does already have a goal and an assist to his name this season and his underlying stats are quite impressive especially his ball distribution. While Leicester haven’t exactly been tight at the back this season they have still picked up three clean sheets so there’s every chance that Fuchs will pick up some clean sheets and attacking returns over the coming weeks. Unfortunately with West Brom none of their defenders have any attacking instincts and if they do they are supressed by he who wears the baseball cap. Granted Gareth McAuley is a threat from set pieces but with an ownership in excess of 20% we must ignore him. So to whom do we turn our attentions? I’m going for something of a punt here in the shape of Allan-Roméo Nyom (0.6%). Why Nyom? Well he’s only £4.3m. Since coming on as a substitute in GW5 he has started every game and you will find it difficult to find any guaranteed starters at that price. While he’s unlikely to pick up any attacking returns there is every chance he’ll pick up the odd clean sheet over the coming weeks and you can’t really ask for much more for £4.3m. Hang on a second, I’m lying through my teeth here! A certain West Brom defender has over his past seven FPL seasons scored 22 goals and picked up 46 assists. Of course I’m referring to Chris Brunt. Priced at just £4.9m and featuring in just 0.1% of teams Brunt has been playing in midfield since his return from injury. As previous seasons show he’s always good for a couple of goals or assists and with certain set pieces in his locker it shouldn’t be long before he’s back amongst the points.

The recent injury suffered by Hector Bellerin may offer us a cheap route into the Arsenal defence, at least in the short term. This is obviously assuming that it is Carl Jenkinson who deputises for the Spaniard. Jenkinson is clearly not in Bellerin’s class but he has plenty of experience having spent the last two seasons on loan at West Ham. During his time at Upton Park he demonstrated a willingness to get forward scoring twice last season and picking up a couple of assists in the previous season. At the time of writing there is only speculation as to how long Bellerin might miss but most reports suggest 3-4 weeks meaning Jenkinson might only feature twice so he would be something of a punt but at £5.0m and with an ownership of 0% it might be a punt worth taking.

A couple of other relatively cheap full backs who we feel are worth some consideration are Middlesbrough’s George Friend (4.5%) and Stoke’s Erik Pieters (4.3%). With just 12 goals conceded from their opening 10 games only four teams have a better defensive record than Middlesbrough. Friend has picked up a couple of assists to highlight his attacking instincts while it’s also worth noting that he’s picked up five bonus points across the past five game-weeks. Admittedly their fixtures aren’t the greatest but they recently held Arsenal scoreless and conceded just once against City. Pieters probably doesn’t have the attacking instincts to match Friend but Stoke are in the middle of a great run of fixtures which continues for another three game-weeks. They’ve conceded just five times in their last seven games and have kept two clean sheets from their last four.

Midfielders

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[/three_fifth]Unsurprisingly Eden Hazard has been hogging most of the headlines down at Stamford Bridge. However there are a number of cracking differentials currently on offer from the Chelsea midfield. First up is Spanish international Pedro. Signed from Barcelona back in August 2015 he arrived in England with much expected of him and while he finished the season with seven goals and three assists he proved to be something of a disappointment. This season started in a similar fashion and he was in & out of the team and picked up just a solitary assist from the first seven game-weeks. However with Willian being unavailable the Spaniard has started the last four games and has certainly grasped his chance. Like so many of the Chelsea players he has benefited greatly from the switch to 3-4-3 and has been linking up to great effect with Hazard & Costa. With two goals and four assists from the last four games he looks virtually undroppable. For those of you who already own Costa and are perhaps struggling to fit Hazard into your team Pedro is worth some serious consideration given his current price tag of £7.2m while he features in just 2.1% of teams. Before moving on we want to highlight both Victor Moses and Nemanja Matic. It’s now over four years since Moses moved to Stamford Bridge and prior to this season he’d made just 40 odd appearances although he did spend a couple of seasons out on loan. Conte has revitalised his career and it seems like he was born to play at wing back. He has licence to get forward and has picked up a goal and an assist since the switch to 3-4-3. He currently features in just 1.4% of teams and is priced at just £5.6m. The addition of N’golo Kante to the Chelsea side has given Matic more of a licence to get forward and this has seen him pick up five assists to date. At £5.1m he’s ideally priced to be played as a 4th or 5th midfielder for those of you who have adopted a 3-5-2 system and he currently features in just 4.3% of teams.

When Ronald Koeman left Southampton last summer many thought that the Saints would struggle without the Dutchman but as we’ve seen so many times over the last few years Southampton always find a way to deal with loss. Granted they lost last time out against Hull but they had shown some signs of promise in the previous weeks. Upfront Charlie Austin has been grabbing the FPL headlines but in midfield they’ve got a couple of differentials in the shape of Nathan Redmond and Dusan Tadic. Much was expected of Redmond following his summer move from Norwich but aside from a goal in GW1 he did next to nothing during the opening seven game-weeks. However a goal and two bonus points in each of game-weeks 8&9 have brought him back to our attention. Tadic has proven equally as frustrating this season and is potentially morphing into Luka Modric…important to his team but just not cutting it in FPL! However he’s still got some decent underlying stats and with an ownership of just 2.2% he’s an excellent differential. If I had to choose the two I’d go for Redmond as at £6.0m he’s £1.2m cheaper than the Serb. It’s also worth noting that Sofiane Boufal must now be factored into the equation as he will surely be selected in the starting XI sooner or later!

A number of other mid-priced midfielders who currently offer themselves as differentials are United’s Juan Mata (2.6%), Swansea’s Gylfi Sigurdsson (3.3%) and West Brom’s Nacer Chadli (3.0%). Ok, so by including Juan Mata here we really are asking you to think outside the box. But surely United have to turn a corner soon? We can all agree that United have underperformed this season but when Mata starts United win. Granted he has started games in which United have lost but he has started each of the five league games which United have won this season. United’s immediate fixtures are tricky but should we look forward to GW16 they embark on a great run of fixtures and there’s nothing to say that they won’t pick up a couple of victories between now and then. You think United are bad? Well Swansea are considerably worse! With just one win all season they currently lie 2nd from bottom with just Sunderland below them on goal difference. With two goals and three assists to his name Siggy has been their one & only shining light this season. Like United their immediate fixtures are rather difficult but from GW15 they’ve got a great run of fixtures. The Icelandic international has been involved directly in 50% of Swansea’s goals so should Jeff & the boys get excited over a Swansea goal on a Saturday afternoon there’s an excellent chance he’ll be involved. While United and Swansea have some difficult short term fixtures West Brom have a number of ideal fixtures. Chadli has had a great start to life at the Hawthorns with four goals and two assists to his name. At £6.5m he’s considerably cheaper than both Mata & Siggy and given West Brom’s fixture’s he has the potential to provide an immediate return on investment.

We’ll wrap up our midfield selection with a few budget friendly options who we feel are worth a mention, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha Burnley’s Johann Berg Gudmundsson and Emre Can of Liverpool. Palace threw away a two goal lead against Burnley back in GW11 but Zaha still managed to impress. With an assist in each of his last three games his end product is slowly starting to improve. At £5.3m he will be something of a gamble but he currently features in just 2.3% of teams. A key figure in Burnley’s comeback win over Palace was Gudmundsson with the Icelandic international chipping in with a goal and assist. With 16 goals over the past two seasons in the Championship with Charlton he’s clearly got an eye for goal. Burnley have some decent fixtures over the coming weeks and with an ownership of just 0.2% you might just catch your opponents out with his acquisition. The Liverpool midfield has been tearing it up this season but most of the attention has been heaped on Messers Coutinho, Firmino, Mane & Lallana. Can has had to wait for his opportunity this season with new signing Georginio Wijnaldum keeping him out of the side. He has however started the last four games, scoring in each of the last two. Obviously he’s not going to score every week but with the way Liverpool are playing I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on the scoresheet on a semi-regular basis? Is semi-regular good enough? It is when he’s priced at £4.8m and features in just 1.2% of teams. Is he likely to remain in the first XI? I suspect the place is his to lose.

Forwards

The top five scoring forwards over the opening 11 game-weeks are Diego Costa, Romelu Lukaku, Sergio Aguero, Jermain Defoe and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
If we filter the forwards by form the top five are Sergio Aguero, Jermain Defoe, Sam Vokes, Romelu Lukaku and Diego Costa.
If we then filter in terms of ownership you will see that the most popular forwards are Sergio Aguero, Diego Costa, Romelu Lukaku, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Charlie Austin.

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[/three_fifth]As you can see, identifying some decent differentials up top is not going to be easy but we’ll certainly give it a go. The obvious candidate is undoubtedly Harry Kane. The Spurs striker missed five games between game-weeks 6&10 and this has seen his ownership drop to 5.4% although a price tag of £11.0m at the beginning of the season may also have turned many away from him. His price has now dropped to £10.7m so he remains anything but cheap but as we have seen over the past two seasons he knows where the goal is and will score goals. In GW11 he scored on his return from injury having scored in game-weeks 4&5 prior to his injury. He was an unused substitute in England’s WCQ against Scotland and was then released back to Spurs to continue building his match fitness which is good news for anyone considering investing in the Englishman. Spurs have struggled for goals this season scoring just 15 times and will be eager for Kane to find his form from the last two seasons. Aside from trips to face Chelsea & United in game-weeks 13&15 Spurs have quite an easy fixture list through to 2017 allowing Kane every opportunity to make up some ground on Costa & Aguero in the scoring charts.

When Burnley were promoted last summer all the chat surrounded Andre Gray and how his goals would make him this season’s Jamie Vardy. Unfortunately his tweets got him into a little bit of trouble resulting in a four game ban. However prior to the ban he’d only scored one in five and was actually an unused sub last time out. Instead it is Welsh international Sam Vokes (3.3%) who is quickly becoming their talisman. In his last four games he has scored three and picked up an assist. As we’ve already mentioned Burnley have a relatively easy run of fixtures over the coming weeks and at £6.2m is cheap enough to be fielded as your 3rd forward for those of you playing 3-4-3.

A number of other forwards who we feel warrant inclusion are Leicester’s Ahmed Musa (4.3%), Stoke’s Wilfried Bony (1.6%) and Victor Anichebe (0.5%) of Sunderland. Despite arriving at the King Power Stadium back in July for a club record fee it has taken Musa some time to break into the starting XI although he has now started each of the last four games scoring once in game-weeks 9&10. Leicester have a great fixture list between now and January and at just £7.0m Musa could prove to be value for money throughout that period. After a torrid start to the season in which they lost four on the spin between game-weeks 2&5 Stoke have bounced back with three wins and three draws in their subsequent six games scoring 10 times in those games. Bony finally sparked into life with two goals in the win over Swansea in GW10, his first goals of the season. Admittedly it would take a massive gamble to draft him into your squad but Stoke’s fixtures remain kind to them over the coming weeks. You think Bony is a gamble? Well in the words of Bachman-Turner Overdrive, you ain’t seen nothing yet! Anichebe made his first start of the season in GW11 and prior to this had seen just 15 minutes of action. Actually he’s not quite the gamble that Bony is as at just £4.5m you’re likely to buy him as a 3rd forward who you’ll bench every week. The gamble is whether or not he’ll continue in the starting XI. However he was brought into the side to give Jermain Defoe some support up top and this resulted in Sunderland winning their first game of the season with Anichebe scoring one and assisting another so Moyes is unlikely to change a winning formula.

Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 12. This article was written by Kop Warrior

Follow @KenLyons79