Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21
Welcome to Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21. Just for a change we aren’t going to select players this week, instead we are going to let the game itself select them for us! We are going to take a look at the most transferred IN players for this round. And then we are going to tell you why we think this is and then whether we think thousands of other people are on the right track or whether they have lost their minds! It’s a fair sample selection as well because the transfer window has been open for well over a week already and the top 3 players from each position have attracted over 1.2 million transfers between them and that’s just at the time of writing*. Let’s take a look and see what people are up to…
Goalkeepers
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#1 Tom Heaton – 38.020
Price : 4.9m
Ownership : 16.4%
Total Points : 80
Rank : #2 (overall points rank in keepers)
Analysis : To be ranked number 2 in keepers and only be trailing the leader Courtois by 5 points when your own team has conceded twice as many goals and only kept 4 clean sheets as opposed to their 11 is some feat. Now we know Tom is an expert shot stopper but it’s probably just as well as Burnley have conceded 120 shots on target this season at an average of 6 per game. Chelsea by contrast have just 51 against them which is just over 2.5 per game. This may explain then why Heaton has garnered 20 points from saves alone and Courtois just the 7. Heaton seems to attract an unusual amount of bonus points for a keeper too having got the full 3 on no less than 4 occasions. We haven’t checked every keeper in the league but we think we are on safe ground saying that no other has managed double digit points 3 times this season and as a perfect illustration of why clean sheets matter not to him the last time he did this he got 12 points and they got beat 1-0!
They play Southampton at home this week who have failed to score in exactly half of their away games this season and have only scored 9 in the others. For their part Burnley have conceded 11 in 11 at home but have won 7 of those and are ranked 6th overall at home whereas Saints have won just 2 away.
Transfer Rating : 4/5 You can’t argue with his consistency, you just have to rely on save points a bit. Ok, a lot.
#2 Lee Grant – 35,749
Price : 4.4m
Ownership : 7.8%
Total Points : 63
Rank : #8
Analysis : Stoke are away at Sunderland this week so we can only assume that some people have looked at Sunderland’s league position in relations to Grant’s price and decided that buying him for this week was a good idea. Now we aren’t necessarily saying it isn’t but looking ahead Stoke then face Everton, Man Utd, Spurs, Man City and Chelsea in 5 of their next 8 so that’s 5 of the next 8 when you won’t want him playing really! As for his chances this week Stoke have conceded 19 on the road in 10 games with just 2 clean sheets in those games. And they were against Hull and Watford. Sunderland have scored just 13 at home in 10 games but have only actually failed to score twice and even one of those was against Chelsea.
Transfer Rating : 3/5 If you need a budget replacement for someone to release funds then he’s ok. But only ok.
#3 Eldin Jakupovic – 29,921
Price : 3.9m
Ownership : 19.0%
Total Points : 23
Rank : #24
Analysis : Maybe people saw Jakupovic starting against Swansea in the cup and got excited at the prospect of a budget keeper returning to the line-up again. Or maybe it’s simply a case of shaving funds off a more expensive one to enable other moves. Either way it is worth noting that he hasn’t started a league game since GW5 but did feature against Newcastle in their last cup game way back in December so he has been available, he’s just not been selected. Whether the new manager changes that remains to be seen but for now he’s a big risk and unless you desperately need those funds we would look elsewhere as deliberately opting for just one playing keeper isn’t the route we would take to find them.
Transfer Rating : 1/5 As a last ditch attempt to fund a ‘must have’ move elsewhere then yeah go on, otherwise avoid.
Defenders
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#1 Charlie Daniels – 116,050
Price : 5.2m
Ownership : 10.8%
Total Points : 88
Rank : #3
Analysis : Now this is a transfer we can really get behind and ticks most if not all of the boxes. Daniels has been Mr Consistent this season in so many aspects – he has 3 assists which puts him joint 2nd amongst defenders, he has 3 goals which is 2nd also, he has 12 bonus point which puts him 5th for those and he has 6 clean sheets which is joint 9th but basically puts him behind only Chelsea, Spurs, and Southampton defenders. Those clean sheet stats are interesting given Bournemouth’s next 3 opponents too. Basically 4 of them have been at home and 2 of their next 3 are just that. The away clean sheets have been against struggling or lower opposition (Stoke and Swansea) and up next for them is Hull away. Given all of the above we feel he is reasonably priced too as he is the only sub 5.5m defender in the top 10 points scorers.
Transfer Rating : 4/5 We like this move and for all the right reasons.
#2 Leighton Baines – 83,436
Price : 5.5m
Ownership : 8.6%
Total Points : 72
Rank : #8
Analysis : This one we can kind of understand, certainly from a form point of view anyway, as he has had a hand in 4 goals in Everton’s last 7 games (2 goals & 2 assists), racking up 11 bonus points in that period, 2 double digit scores and 2 clean sheets in the last 3 games. On the other hand they also play Man City this week who have averaged 2.2 goals per away game this season. We suppose you could argue that you’d be buying Baines for his attacking prowess as much as his defensive points but then City are fairly tight away as well with just 12 in 10 conceded. Long term though Baines looks a great shout as Everton then have a stretch of 8 games in which they play 7 of the current bottom 12 teams.
Transfer Rating : 4/5 We haven’t seen the best of Baines for a good season or even 2 now due to a combination of both injuries and Martinez. Could this be his swansong?
#3 Nathan Ake – 67,881
Price : 4.4m
Ownership : 9.4%
Total Points : 51
Rank : #38
Analysis : Now we can’t tell when these transfers were actually made but we are willing to bet that at least 67,880 of them were prior to the news that Ake had been cruelly snatched back from Bournemouth by his parent club Chelsea. We won’t dwell on him too much as it’s nigh on impossible to predict what his role, if any, will be in the Chelsea set up. At 4.4m though he may be worth hanging onto for a week or two just in case he does indeed force a first team place. We certainly wouldn’t actively purchasing now though. It’s worth noting that if you already owned him prior to him moving back and already owned 3 other Chelsea players your next transfer OUT, whenever that may be, MUST be a Chelsea player.
Transfer Rating : 1/5 Don’t buy him just yet but if he gets a sniff of regular action then he’ll be the bargain of the season!
Midfielders
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#1 Dele Alli – 318,782
Price : 8.5m
Ownership : 16.2%
Total Points :115
Rank : #3
Analysis : Probably the least surprising stat of the week is that Mr Alli is the most transferred in player so far and that figure will only rise as the deadline nears. In fact just to illustrate that point, in the short space of time on a Tuesday tea-time and just while we wrote this sole paragraph his transfers in had already jumped up to 319,881! After a relatively slow start to the season with 3 goals up until GW16 something clicked in GW17 and he now has 7 in his last 4, including a brace in each of his last 3 as well as taking 9 bonus points in those games. The only people disappointed with this transfer trend will be those who owned him already as something of a sneaky differential, when Eriksen was looking the way to go for Spurs coverage, or those who don’t have the funds to buy him. You could easily make a case for doubling up with Eriksen as it’s not as if Alli is stealing his thunder, the Viking still has 5 assists, 2 goals and 7 bonus points in his last 5 games.
Transfer Rating : 5/5 If you don’t have him we would seriously be making plans to ensure you do sometime soon.
#2 Matty Phillips – 181,194
Price : 5.8m
Ownership : 17.7%
Total Points : 100
Rank : #7
Analysis : Much like Alli it’s a been a case of a tale of two halves so far this season for Phillips. Only in his case literally so! Up to GW10 he had managed just 24 points, 0 goals, 2 assists and 0 bonus points. Since GW11 he has got 74 points, 4 goals, 7 assists and 12 bonus points. It’s fair to say that he is a man in form then and had his 1st half mirrored his 2nd he’d actually be the top scorer in the game. His immediate fixture is Spurs away who have the meanest defence in the league and have conceded just 0.5 goals per game at home. Much like Baines earlier though he’s a cracking long term prospect with a run up to GW28 which sees them play 6 of the current bottom 11, all of whom are below West Brom themselves.
Transfer Rating : 4/5 He’d be our pick of the ‘budget’ midfielders given both his current form and fixtures ahead.
#3 Robert Snodgrass – 139,296
Price : 5.8m
Ownership : 9.7%
Total Points : 94
Rank : #9
Analysis : Budget midfielders are obviously in vogue as yet another sub 6.0m one makes this weeks list and he is indeed the 3rd most transferred in player of the week thus far. If the other two have only just come to life then Snodgrass has been the more consistent over the piece as his 7 goals, 2 assists and 16 bonus points have been evenly spread out right from GW1 when he scored and took home 10 points right up until last week when he scored and took home 10 points. He’s managed double digits in a quarter of his games. All that is great but forgive us for being a bit more lukewarm on this one than some of the others and that is simply because of his fixtures after this week. It’s Bournemouth at home this week and Hull have scored the majority of their goals at home but even then it’s just at a rate of 1.1 per game. It’s what’s after this one though that concerns us! They play Chelsea, Man Utd, Liverpool and Arsenal and 3 of those are away and Hull have scored just 6 away. Snodgrass himself has returned very little against any top 6 team previously this season with just a goal against Arsenal his only significant contribution.
Transfer Rating : 2.5/5 Feels like a no brainer for this week but beyond that we’d have serious concerns.
Forwards
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#1 Jermain Defoe – 124,560
Price : 7.8m
Ownership : 25.7%
Total Points : 113
Rank : #3
Analysis : That Defoe is sat 3rd for points in the forward section is nothing short of a miracle really. That he trails Costa by just 10 points is bloody amazing. We say this not only based upon one team being 1st and the other being 18th but also consider this – Chelsea have scored 42 goals, having had 305 shots with 109 of them being on target. Sunderland have scored just 19 (3rd worst in the league) from 196 shots (3rd worst in the league) and only 60 of those have been on target (2nd worst in the league). That’s just 3 shots on target per game! Of those 19 goals Defoe has had a hand in 14 of them. He’s also 2nd overall in the game for bonus points with 21 to his name. Stoke are the visitors this week and they have let in an average of 1.9 goals per game on the road. We rate this transfer fairly highly as he seems the ideal 3rd striker in that mid-priced range if you are one of those who isn’t willing to completely bastardise their midfield to fit in 3 of the 4 premium forwards. The best thing you can say about Defoe really is that whenever there are games on and you hear Sunderland have scored you just know there’s a bloody big chance it was him!
Transfer Rating : 4/5 As a slightly ‘budget’ 3rd striker who isn’t one of the ‘big 4’ you can’t go wrong with him really.
#2 Olivier Giroud – 107,365
Price : 8.6m
Ownership : 4.9%
Total Points : 63
Rank : #13
Analysis : This is where stats can get thrown out of the window really but we will preface it with saying that we are glad he is in the discussion here and we would thoroughly recommend the transfer if it is viable or suits your needs. Prior to GW18 Giroud hadn’t played more than 30mins in any game. Since then he’s played all 3, scored 3, got 2 assists, 7 bonus points and has averaged 10 points per game. If you pro rata his points per minute this season against Costa he’d have 235 FPL points! His goals per 90mins come out at 1.2 as opposed to Costa’s 0.75, and he’s the leading scorer. That’s where stats lie slightly as we are simply taking a very small sample of an extraordinary patch of form. That said he can only notch when he actually plays and he’s clearly got the bit between his teeth to cement his starting place once more. One glance at his upcoming fixtures and you have to say he could be absolute gold as they include Swansea away (anywhere will do against them!) and Burnley, Watford and Hull at home. Feels almost irresistible.
Transfer Rating : 5/5 5?! Yes 5! That’s how highly we rate both his form and fixtures in tandem.
#3 Diego Costa – 61,983
Price : 10.7m
Ownership : 44.5%
Total Points : 123
Rank : #1
Analysis : The only question here really is what exactly have they been waiting for?! We can only assume that this is a case of those who briefly jumped off him back in GW18 now jumping back on again for the points ride. He’s the 2nd top points scorer in the game behind Sanchez, the leading goal scorer with 14 and has added assists to his repertoire this season with 1 in every 4 games as opposed to his previous of 1 every 4 seasons or so. Ok, we made that final stat of the article up but it feels about right. At 44.5% ownership you’d only be buying him to keep pace really, but that’s as good a reason as losing ground every week.
Transfer Rating : 4/5 If you don’t have him you probably need him just so that you don’t fall further behind those that do.
*all transfer IN numbers, % of ownership and price of players were correct at the time of writing, we appreciate all are a fluid number during the week.
Thanks for reading Fantasy Premier League Tips Gameweek 21. This article was written by Inittowinit
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Kind of need some help here be free transfer and nothing in the bank. My defence sucks and I need to do something about Holgate or Amat soon I think. Or I could just do Alli in for Firmino
Firmino to Alli for me Smash. That defence isn’t giving you any options though really, week to week, but I’d worry about that later and get on the form guy for now.
Completely agree. Your defence should see you through this gameweek ok.
Yeah defence was further sacrificed to get Phillips last week. Is a big problem though as I need another option. But need a downgrade somewhere
That’s the pay off though isn’t it, that front 3 plus Sanchez probably means a crap defence or at least no wiggle room to fix it.
This is true and I’m ok with a weak defence. Just need another option at the back that’s all. Think I’ll just put Alli in and worry about it next week.
Hello guys hope all is well, i was away in middle east for Christmas and am still away now! Looking forward to that Christmas dinner when im home! Great article buy the way, really good read!
i have a headache and need some advice. Am thinking of wildcarding this week due to team not looking good and needs a freshen up. But to have who i want (Age old problem) my defence will have to filled with 4m players who dont play. so to combat this heres the question –
Do i drop Aguero or costa to giroud to free up money and sort out defence? I dont want to but seems to be the only option!!
Hi jol, could be a tad cold / rotten by the time you return that dinner
I’m running with no Kun for now and I wouldn’t say I’m completely comfortable with it but it certainly feels ok for the time being. Him down to Giroud feels like it’d make a huge difference elsewhere from what you say and probably mean upgrading 2 to 4 other defenders. I think I like that pay off.
hey Init – smart article that (and interesting)
Possibly different if jol has him already I think.
Depends on team I guess – post it Jol?
Cheers Dramers.
I was kind of basing that on him WC’ing but then read again and saw it was only a maybe on that one.
Current and what im playing with so far…. I already had Costa…. Im just torn weather have aguero or keep costa …. btu as you can see the team definitely needs an over haul!!!
Obviously if i wildcard thats what i have so far…. But do also have 2 free transfers with that current team
jol – I’d be thinking of using your 2 FT’s
Philips to be one of those – what have you in the bank?
Depends on that bank really. I can see why you’d be reaching for the WC though! That said it’s not unsalvageable though, maybe even just in 3 transfers over 2 weeks.
only got 0.2 in the bank…. i normally leave wildcard until double game weeks but the whole team needs changing i think….. this is the new team if i go with it… thoughts?
I’d wildcard then, the 0.2 kills anything I was thinking as you’re pretty much snookered in terms of the fixes I was thinking of.
Then again I suppose if you went and did Ibra & Itchy to Giroud & Defoe this week for free then you’d actually be a good way towards your WC front 7, although also a bit away still in terms of the mids, but not that far. The WC team does look miles better.
Cheers for the advice innit, think i will wildcard, its just pressing the button that is holding me back now!!lol
I’ll fly over and press it for you but it’ll cost you!
No idea if you caught this from last week but it may be of interest in your circumstance. You need to read between the lines a bit on my one but basically it would advise you to do it all things considered in your particular scenario.
https://fantasyfootball247.co.uk/fpl-ramblings-part-1-wildcard-wonders/
no cost needed its already been pressed changed keeper to junkapovic and had enought for capoue to redmond so have a strong midfield now. I missed that article but just sat a read it, bloody good one again there mate, and im happy i pressed it even though the vodka may have helped me! Night shift cancelled tonight so i have been tinkering for 6 hours and this is it…..as the article says i will deal with DGW as they come! Cheers for the help, much appreciated
sorry gonna take love out heres my bench defender ! just realised!
I don’t think Aguero will do anything until he’s away at West Ham. Don’t know why I think that, just a gut feeling. Giroud is definitely a great pick as you have both form and fixtures with him.
Kind of thinking the same. Trouble with him is the hysteria it brings when he gets a goal, it’s like it’s worth 10 points as opposed to the 4 that every other player gets. He is one of the few though that can then quickly add a 2nd and a 3rd but that’s not been in evidence this season really. Yet….
no cost needed its already been pressed changed keeper to junkapovic and had enought for capoue to redmond so have a strong midfield now. I missed that article but just sat a read it, bloody good one again there mate, and im happy i pressed it even though the vodka may have helped me! Night shift cancelled tonight so i have been tinkering for 6 hours and this is it…..as the article says i will deal with DGW as they come! Cheers for the help, much appreciated
hey everyone
What would you do here? 1 FT, 0 itb
What does Siggy to Stan leave for replacing Origi?
8.7 Init – enough for Giroud or Defoe
Yeah I’d do Stan and Giroud
Ah cool, no brainer then mate. Transfers. Cigar.
I’d be looking at shifting Siggy and Origi – possibly bring in Stanislas and Giroud, either for a hit or over two weeks.
That’s pretty much where I was going too Red. Probably do it in one as well if Giroud is affordable.
cheers lads
Indeed, Stan and GIroud. Maybe for a hit even. And I’m not a Giroud fan. Freaking annoyed what he is doing to my Sanchez.
My Sanchez
Redmond and Yoshida fpl gold? :p
Yoshida could be good. I’m not a fan of Redmond. Guy never looks too convincing in front of goal.
I know mate, it was actually a joke. I have had Redmond for too long and he has done too little.
Anyway, I don’t now about Fonte but dude wanted to leave the team for ages, so my guess is that he was a rotten apple. Yoshida in the defense might actually be better, who knows. I dont see many teams keep a cs versus Pool.
Just read that’s his first goal in 15 and 1st since 23rd October. He’s not a natural goalscorer looking at him. I remember owning him early doors and he missed a shed load of easy chances – they always stand out more when you own the bugger!
Trouble with Yosh could be Virgil. He impresses me more every time I see him and has been one of my favourite players this season to watch, he’s immense. I can imagine Pep texting his board again after that game… And even more fair play and power to him that he’s not gone all stroppy like Fonte despite knowing the interest and also knowing it’s him that holds that defence together and not his childish partner.
I know Innit, the Redmond thing was a joke. If you look at his stats at the start of the season, they were amazing. He just missed all the chances. Like trillion chances created a trillion shots on target. Almost is just not good enough. When Austin came he, he owned that shit. Redmond, a very useful player, just not for FPL comebacks.
I was just thinking during the ‘pool game that Virgil was cementing himself as the most impressive defender I’ve seen anywhere this season.
If Fonte goes Yoshida would certainly be good for Bench Fodder to replace Amat.
I don’t see why they would let go of Virgil, he is keeping them together. Lol, the fact they paid 50m for Stones though, haha. 50M! Anything is possible but they have to pay the jackpot. Just think what comebacks Virgil would get at a team like City though. Anyway, I don’t see it happening. Pep must be desperate though.
I’d seen him a few times and been impressed with him early on in the season Red and then when we (EFC) played there he owned Lukaku and bullied him all game, which isn’t easy. I only caught bits of tonight but from what I did see he had Sturridge in his pocket, even skinned him down the left wing at one point!
I know you were Raz, I got the tongue, which you even got right for once :winktongue:
As for Virgil money talks, they couldn’t turn down what’s being reported, 60m+, and City do really need that figure, he’d transform them. They need a new Kompany and he would be it.
I agree on the Virgil assessment. He’s ruthless and much better than Fonte. But we can’t compare their behavior in what regards the transfer request. Fonte has been at the club for ages, he’s 32 and it’s only normal to ask for the transfers if a big club comes for him. Him being the captain doesn’t help of course. That being said he then needs to be professional, as Virgil remain, but I don’t see anything that tells me he hasn’t been. The way I see it, it’s the club that has sidelined him. So I wouldn’t rate him to be childish at all, based on available info.
Maybe a flippant and wrong choice of word then, sorry. Doesn’t ever look good though when the captain decides mid season that he’s offski and then we get all this nonsense about him not being in the right state of mind to play. We don’t know who’s driving that though. I was simply comparing the conduct of one to another when they are basically both in the same situation in terms of outside interest, the difference being I guess that Fonte has been asked by his suitors to hand in a request to save them a few mil whereas Virgil hasn’t.
I read words from the club saying he didn’t accept a contract renewal and words from him saying he wasn’t offered one so something’s not right there. You are right on the captain thing though, I guess it comes with the job that you just don’t go bale out on the team in January. But he was their skipper for a few seasons now and it’s normal that a big club comes for him after his euro’s performance. That should’ve come and paid Southampton what they deserved in July though. It’s lame and wrong to do it on the contract end of things.
It’s the player’s situation I’m defending here, which isn’t ideal, but in the end I think he deserves it. Virgil is young and this is his 2nd season right, so for him to handle the transfer request would just be wrong. Not comparable I thin in terms of the player’s ethics’s towards the club.
Just wondering if I should do anything for this week? Defence and GK need a little work I think.
I have 1 FT and 0.9 ITB
Thinking of saving it for next week and doing Snoddy > Stanislas and Lallana > Coutinho
Any advice is greatly appreciated.
Save it sounds best depending on the press conferences. I would move Phillips to first sub ahead of the defenders though, neither of whom I’d bet on getting clean sheets whereas Phillips will probably be involved if West Brom score one (or more).
My word that’s a small picture, some of us are getting old here you know! I’d save it. Very similar situation to the site team actually that I’m just looking at now in so much as defence feels like it needs something but it will probably survive for a week regardless.
Sorry about that, didn’t mean to make you strain your eyes. Hope this helps.
Erickson > Alli or just save the trade till next week?
Save it dizn, Erik has still been producing.
I’m sold on Origi->Giroud this week (just trying to do it as late as possible) and want Alli soon, probably for Miki, but wasn’t going to do that one this week to give Miki another run at the week-end.
I now realize I could do it for Lallana which hadn’t even crossed my mind given his value for money ratio, but pool have a lot of games and some very though in January.
Would you do it? It would be for a hit.
1FT / £2.9
Cheers.
I’d do it for Miki and Origi for sure. I’d be leaving Lallana alone with Swansea and Hull coming up.
Yeah scrap that. I’d rue dithiching Lallana in the long term. I bought him at 7.1!
I guess I just want to prove myself right with keeping the faith on Miki!
Alli is luring me though so it will take a lot of constraint to hold on to that. Grrrr
I like Miki and long term I hope you’re right on him, shorter term though I like points better
Just swallow it and get Alli!
I just know you’re right ( the same happened with KDB earlier in the season) but I can’t click that button! Especially for a hit. Well Giroud seems to be rising again tonight so that’s Origi down the drain. Two days to tinker the Miki/Alli one. He did had an assist this week!
If that was me and the rise priced me out of it I’d be getting Alli and Giroud now for the hit and walking away happy with the business.
Yeah if price raises were an issue this would’ve been a done deal. But their not, I’d have 1.4 after those moves which further contributes to the hesitasion.
Cheers mate and great approach for this tips article btw!