FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
MANCHESTER UNITED – Aston Villa (A), West Ham (H), Hull (A), Norwich (A)
United have always thrived on an air of invincibility, especially at home. That bubble has been well and truly burst this past week. Whether they can recover that or not remains to be seen and much will depend on how they fare over the next few weeks as this one really could go either way right now. Either they steady the ship quickly, and this week will go down as a blip, or the rot continues to set in and we have a full blown crisis on our hands.
We imagine Moyes will be waiting with baited breath then to see our verdict on his upcoming fixtures! Well rest easy David, as we feel the next four should be kind. In theory, United have three away from home coming up but this may be no bad thing given this week’s events. All four fixtures are against teams lower than United in the league. The home fixture is against the lowest placed of the four and we would expect United to beat West Ham at Old Trafford. Wouldn’t we?
Away from home United are actually the joint top scorers with Arsenal on fourteen goals, but their away defensive record is average at best. Given that then, probably the best place to look for fantasy points will be in attack and the return from suspension of Wayne Rooney will be the key to this we feel. Robin van Persie may be worth a look but his recent injuries and hefty price tag is seeing his following dwindle. In midfield there are slim pickings with Adnan Januzaj now the top scorer on just thirty one points but the sooner Michael Carrick returns for United the better. Whilst he is useless as a fantasy asset his presence in the middle of the park has been sorely missed.
EVERTON – Fulham (H), Swansea (A), Sunderland (H), Southampton (H)
The Toffees have just come away with four points out of six from what was a nightmare week on paper, which involved away trips to both Man United and Arsenal. Confidence will be at a high point then we imagine and the upcoming fixtures will only add to the momentum that is building. Three fixtures at home in the next four and all against teams below them in the league will surely see much investment in the Everton ranks amongst fantasy managers in the upcoming weeks. Everton are now unbeaten at Goodison in the league in this calendar year – a record they will be keen to see through until the end of 2013. It would be the first time in fifty years that they have achieved this remarkable feat and the last time it happened was in the 1962/63 season – and they won the league that year! The only away fixture in this run sees them travel to an inconsistent Swansea and so even this one feels eminently winnable given Everton’s away form this week alone.
Whilst Romelu Lukaku seems the obvious go-to man in fantasy terms, it is worth noting that he is in fact only Everton’s fourth top scorer of fantasy points this season. Team-mates Tim Howard, Seamus Coleman and Phil Jagielka all have more than him and are significantly cheaper. The message here is clear. Investment in one or more Everton defenders may be wise for the next few weeks.
Two players who have burst onto the scene for Everton recently are Bryan Oviedo and Gerard Deulofeu. Whilst both are cheap and scoring good points, which is always a nice combination, we feel a word of caution may be necessary here. Both are what we consider to be reverse out of position players – therefore, players who are listed as playing higher up the pitch than they do in reality. Oviedo is classed as a midfielder yet is playing at left-back and Deulofeu as a striker but plays in midfield. It’s a big shame given their price tags as Oviedo will not get four points for a clean sheet and Deulofeu would have been an ideal fourth or fifth midfielder in our squads. We are not saying don’t pick either but just be aware!
HULL CITY – Stoke (H), West Brom (A), Man United (H), Fulham (H)
Another team with three home fixtures in the next four, Hull should be buoyed by their last game at the KC which was the 3–1 victory over Liverpool. The difficult fixture that stands out there is Man United but who knows these days?! They will certainly fancy their chances of an upset and with Stoke and Fulham the other two visitors, their fans may be hoping for a happy festive period. Their one away trip sees them visit West Brom who have lost four of their eight home games so far.
Hull have only conceded three goals in seven home games so far this season, so with that in mind Curtis Davies and Allan McGregor could be worth a look and at 4.6m and 4.4m respectively could offer great value for a few weeks. Further forward Hull are struggling to find the net overall, having the joint fourth worst scoring record so far with just thirteen goals to their name. Robbie Brady was making an early case for being this seasons surprise budget choice until he succumbed to a hernia problem which stunted his progress and he hasn’t notched a goal or assist since GW6 now but still remains Hull’s top scoring midfielder which tells us all we need to know about the rest really!
Upfront Yannick Sagbo has cemented his place in the team but again he is hardly prolific with just two goals and two assists to his name and at just 4.9m is cheap. That’s all he is really, just cheap. So whilst we started off saying that Hull have favourable fixtures, on reflection, other than a cheap defender and possibly holding Brady if you have him (and he can prove his fitness) then there really is not a lot else to be considering!
THE BEST OF THE REST…
Aston Villa host Man United, Crystal Palace and Swansea in the next four as well as a trip to Stoke. They are inconsistent at best lately though so it’s anybody’s guess how they will fare with that lot.
Sunderland really need to start getting some results soon or they will be cast adrift at the bottom. They have away games coming up against fellow strugglers West Ham and Cardiff as well as a home game with Norwich.
LESS FAVOURABLE FIXTURES
Liverpool – Tottenham (A), Cardiff (H), Man City (A), Chelsea (A)
Nicely poised in second place in the league the next four fixtures may well test Liverpool’s candidacy as potential Champions. The home game against Cardiff is the sort that Luis Suarez has been having for breakfast as of late but it’s the three away matches that will tell us the most. Spurs have struggled for goals this term but are still up in sixth and should give Liverpool a game. The trips to Man City and Chelsea are the real tough one’s we feel.
They will have to negotiate the festive period without their captain Steven Gerrard though, just to complicate matters further. He pulled up with a hamstring strain in the weekend victory over West Ham and the prognosis does not look good. Phillippe Coutinho may have to come to the fore in Gerrard’s absence despite another quiet performance against West Ham which sums up his fantasy season so far – played very well by all accounts, scored two points! Despite the fixtures Luis Suarez will surely still feature in many a fantasy team and it’s a brave manager who jettisons him now.
ARSENAL – Man City (A), Chelsea (H), West Ham (A), Newcastle (A)
We are not picking on the teams at the top this week deliberately it’s just how the fixtures have fallen! There are some that have suggested, whisper it quietly, that Arsenal are sitting pretty at the top due partly to a relatively soft set of fixtures thus far. Well the next few weeks is their opportunity to either quieten such detractors or fan the flames further. The next two are sure to be crackers either way as they first travel to Man City and then host Chelsea at the Emirates. The next two see the Gunners back on the road again, going to West Ham and Newcastle. Neither will be easy but if we had to pick one then maybe West Ham will be the light relief in the middle of that lot.
Theo Walcott’s return to the fold has been much anticipated in fantasy circles with the hope that he would offer a differential to Ozil or Ramsey. Wenger seems content to be easing him back in gently for now but even so he has managed two assists in just sixty three minutes of football, spread over four sub appearances since his return. A couple of starts and the bandwagon may begin rolling.
Crystal Palace – Chelsea (A), Newcastle (H), Aston Villa (A), Man City (A)
Much improved since the arrival of Tony Pulis, the Palace revival will be tested to the full with this set of fixtures. Trips to both Man City and Chelsea bookend a home fixture with a resurgent Newcastle and an away trip to Villa. Two clean-sheets in two games bodes well but that will be difficult to maintain we feel.
We can only imagine what Pulis has had to say to Marouane Chamakh since he arrived but whatever it was it seems to be working a treat. The man with the strangest hair in football now has two goals in two games and seems almost rejuvenated. Expect some transfer activity in the window from Palace but until then Pulis has to utilise what is at his disposal and their fans may have to endure some industrial tactics but that may be their only hope of survival.
Be Wary of….
Southampton may have stopped the rot of three straight defeats with a very respectable draw at home to Man City last time out but their fixtures still remain challenging. Newcastle (A), Spurs (H), Cardiff (A) and Everton (A) await them and it will be interesting to see how well they fare over Christmas.
Fulham had lost six on the bounce prior to the weekend victory over Villa and will be hoping their fortunes have changed with the arrival of the new manager. Meulensteen’s credentials will be tested to the full though as they now go into a run of fairly difficult fixtures with Everton (A), Man City (H), Norwich (A) and Hull (A).
Fixture Fun
This week sees another raft of European fixtures involving six of our domestic teams with Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man United, Swansea and Tottenham all in action prior to GW16. Keep an eye out for injuries and rotation as a result before you make any rash transfer decisions.
The deadline for GW16 is Saturday 14th December at 11.30am GMT.
Good luck everyone!
This article was written by inittowinit
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HITS ARE BAD, RIGHT? OR NOT…
Hmmm.
Okay, I’ve been kicking this concept around for a while, and I’m really not convinced. Would like the perspective of a few of our more experienced members on this.
I personally only care about my net score at the end of each week,
ie pts – hits = net score.
i couldn’t care less how i got there, eg if i took a -8 hit if that gained me 9 more points, so a net increase of +1, that’s good with me.
I see acceptance of hits as relective of your risk rofile preferences.
ie +2 points in hand (net) is often prefered to a possible -2 and probable +3 or more.
eg if defender A going up against a top team, is highly unlikely to get more than 2 points. And could of course get 1 only.
and
defender B who is going up against an easy team and is highly likely to get 6, and possibly more.
then I’d be tempted to go with B. despite “conventional wisdom”.
obviously we need to factor in who is the more desirable player in the medium term too, but my point is that hits are not inherently bad.
Decisions / selections can be bad, but hits are just a part of your risk profile. The key to success is chosing when to take the hits, and factoring in more than one GW when doing so.
if you look at the top players a lot of them have low hits. but for example, if you look at the top 5 globally, the one (placed number 4 globally) who did best this week with 11 net pts more than anyone else has made 23 transfers this season. He’s had 8 -4 hits so far. including one last week. Okay, that’s just one random example of course.
At a personal level I’ve taken 23 transfers in the last 14 GWs, and am running at around 2,500 globally. I’ve used hits to support retaining / increasing team value too, currently I’m at £109m.
Anyway, would love some of your thoughts…
I’ve only been playing this game 3 years. In my short time I have noticed the following things.
The best ranked players always start well, meaning by GW 5 they are already in the top 1000.
Teams become very similar as the season goes, and the captain pick become the critical factor.
The very top players take very few -4 pt hits, however they usually take some around the DGW’s.
Top players rarely do sideways trades (similar priced player of similar quality) unless when injury.
They rarely change their defence, stick with one good goalie and 2 or 3 good attacking defenders and leave them alone, not worry about home or away games.
Anyone else like to add?
James I am not opposed to hits. I only do the feature on the cost of hits, so managers are aware of the cost beforehand. I took almost 200 points worth of hits last season and still manged a 12k finish. So hits can be beneficial and I had plenty of money also, so this allowed me to really build up a much better team than most a lot sooner.
So obviously there are pros and cons and I can speak from experience. I am currently in about the same position I was last season at this moment. Most of hits last season had net gains, including some of the big hits a -12 and a -16. Yes I actually gained net points from those hits. At the end of the season though I looked at my transfer history and I noticed a disturbing problem, it was not solely a bunch of great calls that got me a good ranking, it was a bunch of bad planning that led me to all those extra moves. I could have had the players I took hits for, on my team with free transfers on 70-80% of the occasions I took hits to get them in. It was shite planning that was covered up by an amazing run of good fortune in my decisions on tranfers. Now for all the points I gained from those hits, it was hits that cost me a shot at top 5000 finish or higher at the end of the season. The last 3 weeks I took hits that cost me dearly and with one week left to go and sitting in 8000th I took an 8 point hit that included dropping Lukaku who went on to scored a hat trick. After doing all the math, I realized that I would have finished just inside the top 5000.
Don’t be scared to take a hit, but do your best to avoid them if possible. I also noticed that the hits that usually failed were those involving defenders as the main reason for the hit. The hits that worked always seem to involve the Mata, Theo, Bale, Suarez types.
Me personally I prefer not to take hits,Unless in scenario with players with the likes of Bale and Mata last season and Suarez or Aguero this season at the times they are scoring goals for fun and playing teams like NOR who were conceding 3 plus at the time,….
I also believe in getting value so you have the funds to make transfers you want…Which is why I played wild card early and only done 14 transfers so far.
Team Value 109.9 and 0.5 in the bank…
Avoid unless chance of big hauls…
Timing of the WC seemed a little different this year to last.
Lots of early play working out for the reason you note.
Last year it seemed like a game of chicken to see who could hold out longest…
This is my first year of playing myself advised a friend of mine last season..
so i’m still learning….
My calculations, 4 pts can be worth around 20,000 places( for those ranked around 100,000 – 200,000)
Mito provides great insight on this stuff mate.
A little bit less if you are 100000. About 15000 spots in the overall if you are there. if you are 200000 it should be about 22000 spots in the overall.
Hits actually cost about 55000 spots in the 1million area of the overall and this is the about the peak of what a hit can cost you, after that it tails off and starts costing you less places in the overall.
Thanks Bundeena / Mito. Solid thoughts.
Yeah. It’s definitely true that in retrospect the hits could frequently be avoided, but i guess the challenge if the game is in the imperfect nature of the data we have.
Things that seem obvious later often don’t at the time.
My son has a team worth close to 116 mil. He has taken a lot of hits and is ranked about 2mil. His goal was to do well in The Cup that starts GW 18.
He will stop taking hits from next week, set up the best team he can and see how far he can go, it just depends on your plans.
On another note lads some help please as Gerrard is Injured looks to drop price tonight and now need to decide who to bring in Silva or Oscar today????or Everton deffence Duo
Mig ( Boruc )
Williams,Coleman,Rat —>if not playing auto sub Fonte out and double up EVE bring inn Distin?
Hazard,Ramsey,Yaya Toure.Gerrard —->Auto sub R.Morrison
Luattacktu, Agueron ,Scoorrez —>who to captain ??
Advice appreciated as usual…
You have the sane front 7 as me. I’m considering silva.
But yeah. Other options out there. None of them perfect.
A Poll would be useful…
lets get it started James………………..
Sadly I don’t have admin rights to this place yet.
Post one mate. I’m hitting the shower. (Gym posting)
Good luck he must have bought well at the start – but we shall see, it is not the highest prices that will get you through mid way through the season
As you can see in my team Ramsey,Boruc,Ravel,Lukaku,Gabbidon,Rat were not costly and I have them.
I did not state the highest prices will bring in the points ,just said it’s good to have the flexibility of bringing in who you want or need and not miss out due to money in the bank.
Great comments on the merits or not of hits. I finished in the top 1300 last year and made too many. Just 8 points would have won me the title in Switzerland. I vowed this year to start hit-free. It became apparent by early October that I needed to throw caution to the wind. I’m trying hard to limit them this season…..but see the need from time to time.
Without taking one this week……would you bring Silva in for Nasri yet? Also, would anyone drop Rooney for Lukaku this week (I also have Aguero and Suarez).
Swiss I am finding it hard to see a big difference in the amount of points that Rooney and Lukaku will gather for the season, barring injury to one of them of course. So the big difference to me is, their price. So I would take Lukaku but only on a free transfer and use the money elsewhere. As far Silva goes, Pelligrini said that Silva could not go more than 70 last night. Pelligrini is usually very candid in press conferences and if he is asked directly about Silva vs Arsenal you are likely to get a pretty straight answer, so I would wait on that. Looking at their line-up last night you could see Silva coming in for Navas and having Nasri or Silva play on the right. Don’t think he will play the 90 vs Arsenal but depending on how Silva felt after the game there could be a good chance he starts vs Arsenal. But waiting until the Fulham game is not the worst thing in the world to bring him in.
Brilliant. Thanks for the comprehensive responsive Mito. You’re a star.
cheers Mito
For anyone who did not see this last night!!
Looking to climb the Overall? The Current points for
1st = 1094
5000 = 978
10000 = 965
50000 = 928
100000 = 908
200000 = 883
500000 = 837
If anyone wants to know the target for a different standing in the overall let me know. Also if you want to know how much a hit will hurt you in the overall, be it 4 points or more let me know your ranking if you are not linked and I can tell how much you would lose in the overall standings before the GW starts if you take a hit. This is a feature of the site that is not limited just to this post, you can ask me whenever you feel like it on here or over Twitter.
how many points does number 500 have mate?
1013 points, James.
nice.
25 pts off that.
doable.
(of course so is a gradual slip down into the 100,000s…!)
You don’t mess about with your stats do you Mito…Good to see we have this support everything is appreciated.
No problem Untouchables, glad to help.
Great stuff Mito as always. Still unsure as to how to use hits most effectively as I’m trying to climb up from 11th in my ML.
@Colriles
Hits can help you get back up there with your mini league leader but it can also drop you out of the race. A sound strategy would be plan 3 weeks ahead and I try to avoid hits if possible, but don’t be scared to take a hit if you see a player with a lot of potential to get your points back right away.
For instance hits for Shelvey, Oviedo, Ravel defenders or Keepers are likely to come back to haunt you. Understandably some of these players might be involved in a double transfer if you are using them to get money to buy a Kun/Suarez type but that is a different story if they are involved as a means and not a way.
You are only 100 points behind, that can be chased down with sound decisions, good captain choices and a well timed risk here and there, possibly even some well timed hits also.
excellent… only 180 off top spot, will only take a matter of weeks to make up
Oh, the Galatasaray vs Juventus match resumed today…Im looking at the live feeds on the UCL site, apparently its still goalless
Make that 1-0 to Galatasaray
Sneijder goal Drogba assist
Sneijder, wasn’t that the overrated guy that wasn’t good enough for United? 😉
Fit Sneijder is always a maestro. Nopes, United have the likes of Fellaini… absolute waste. >.<
Thats what you get when you have David Moyes at the helm
And then you get beaten by Everton at home… with Fellaini on the pitch
Moyes was totally blinded by last years Everton heroes (Baines and Fellaini). I personally would prefer to go with a Shaw and a Strootman. Dutch vision is very different from English though, we like young talented players and let them grow. Currently we have to sell them if they’re at the peak but in the past we could keep them a bit longer. Sighs. Anyway, that was Fergie’s vision too right? Homegrown players, Scholes and Giggs. Ronaldo and Rooney were very young. Both Fellaini and Baines are what? 26-27?