FPL Captain Picks GW12
Welcome to FPL Captain Picks GW12
Is the robot broken? That seems to be the question on many a managers lips this international break, and over the last few weeks. He has really let the side down lately and has seen many people want to move not only the armband off him but move him out of their teams altogether! I know I have sold him this week on my Wildcard. That should really end the article and debate right there as we all know my luck will mean Haaland scores 5 this weekend against Spurs, but alas I live in eternal hope that my decisions are correct.
Below we have 3 men who have written about 3 other men that we all will let dictate our moods over the weekend! I might just light a fire, pour a drink and sit in ignorance!
Let’s see what has been said…
Rosco – Haaland vs Tottenham (H)
Purely from the perspective of effective ownership, this week could be one of the best this season to captain Erling Haaland.
In Game week 11, he was sold by the masses, and whilst his EO still tipped over the 100% mark for many, it was minimal. Over 200k have already sold him this week, and although his ownership is still high overall (63%), I’d wager that number to be a lot lower amongst active and engaged managers.
So, what about his lack of goals? Well, there is no denying he has dropped off somewhat. If we compare his first 6 games with his last 6, then its 10 goals vs 2. That’s 65 FPL points vs just 19. Quite the fall from grace. But what do the underlying stats tell us?
Well, for starters, as a club, City are still creating chances. Lots of them. They topped the table for chances created in their first 6 games with 95, and in their last 6 they again come top of the lot with 91. This automatically makes you look to Haaland himself as the problem, but is he?
In Haaland’s first 6 games he scored 9 non-penalty goals from an NPxG of 5.47, so an overperformance of 3.53 goals. This is not that unusual from Haaland given some of the chances he puts away. In his last 6 he’s put up NPxG if 5.28 but only scored twice, an underperformance of 3.28.
So, an almost identical NPxG with very different results. Factor in his 31 goals attempts (in his first 6) vs 29 goal attempts in his latter 6 and you can see that not a whole lot has changed, other than the net bulging and his FPL points tally that is. The important stuff.
Furthermore, compare Haaland to Somone like Mo Salah (who is the reason many managers are selling) and you will see that in his last 6, the Egyptian has 10 goal contributions (5 goals, 5 assists) from an NPxG of 5.47 – identical to Haaland’s first 6 stats and not far off the numbers he’s put up since.
At the Etihad, City have played 5 times, scoring 12 goals. Spurs are the visitors this week, having played 5 games on the road, conceding 7 times and keeping just the one clean sheet. There are goals to be had in this one, there usually are, if past encounters are anything to go by.
In conclusion, Haaland overperformed early on, he’s underperformed in recent weeks. Will this trend continue? I highly doubt it. He’ll score a hattrick when managers least expect it. It could be this week. You just never know.
Stone Frog – Palmer vs Leicester (A)
Can I tempt you with the highest points scorer from last season (244) and the second highest points scorer so far (84) who just so happens to be playing against a promoted side?
In truth, I wasn’t sure of Palmer at the very start of the season, however a cool 17pt haul at Molineux in GW2 and I hastily transferred him in. That and a cold 25pt monster haul against Brighton, shows just how explosive he can be.
He should be in the captain conversation more often! He boasts a total of 12 goal involvements (7G, 5A), second only to Salah and equal to Haaland, and directly contributing to just over half the goals scored by the Blues this season. Recent output has dipped slightly, but that was expected given the tough run of fixtures, which are now turning more favourable starting with a visit to the King Power.
The Foxes have conceded 21 goals so far, surprisingly the same as Southampton and only one less than Ipswich. Granted Wolves have conceded more (27); however, this is partly due to Chelsea and Palmer in GW2.
Just a quick note that he is currently flagged, but has been pictured in training. Given that he will likely be a slight differential choice this week, he could be a good throw of the dice for those looking to claw back rank or those keen to back against Salah/Haaland.
Gear – Salah vs Southampton (A)
Looking at the confessionals, this probably doesn’t need to be said, but Mo Salah is clearly your man this week. He is the top points scorer so far this season and has 23 points more than the next best player in the game.
For those interested, he is currently rocking a xG of 0.58.
In 11 games against Southampton, Salah has bagged 7 goals and 4 assists. Not his best stats against an individual team, but still respectable and for this fixture, we can probably discard matches from previous seasons. Southampton are rock bottom of the league and have conceded 21 goals in the league this season.
The final and most important point is this, it’s a Sunday game, so no Ghandi rule to worry about.
The confessional…
This is where we ask our entire writing team to tell us who they think they will pick this week… There are more caveats and get out clauses than a meeting with Daniel Levy but this is their initial gut feeling based upon who they actually own. And they promise that their picks will be allowed to leave for free if a better offer comes along…
DMC — Haaland
The Gallant Pioneer — Bruno Fernandes
Jamesimmo — Salah
Ivan — Haaland
Swirly — Salah
Matt — Salah
Loud Atlas — Salah
Smash — Salah
Kop — Salah
Rosco — Salah
Ellefcee — Haaland
Init — Haaland
Gear — Salah
Stone Frog — Salah
OddDane — Salah
Jamie Mc — Haaland
Thanks for reading FPL Captain Picks GW12.
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***NEW ARTICLE – CAPO PICKS GW12***
Many thanks to Rosco, Stone and Gear for this weeks picks, and to Matt for pulling it all together.
Thanks for the article boys. Its Haaland for me i think, to worried if he gets back into the goals. I do have Mo at least if he delivers.
Thanks for the article, Salah C here.
One thing I found interesting on H&L is the unusual bunching of teams and scores this year compared to seasons past and the very low number of FGS being correct.
So many unusual suspects scoring first but adds to the excitement haha
Salah captain for me! Not even owning Haaland as I say in the article so you all better cap him, you’ve been warned!
Questions here just collecting some opinions.
A. Cunha or Jackson
B. RAN, Kerkez or Digne
A: I’ve got a similar issue (see below)
B: Digne (Seems to have the numbers + fixtures)
See below. Thank you mate
Cunha and RAN
Would say Kerkez or Hall or even Mykolenko
I am starting to think Kerkez might be the one
Hi everyone. Great to be getting footy back. This IB has seemed so long. WC active.Please RMT. Only other thought is Gabriel + Cunha -> Ait Nori + N. Jackson. I was going to go the Jackson route, but I saw he’s on 4 YCs, which has scared me off. Any thoughts?
Click on image to enlarge:
I’m thinking Digne and Jackson for 3 weeks then sell them both for the Wolves pair of RAN and Cunha. Just don’t see clean sheets for Wolves in the next few. Goals could come but Chelsea look better.
This can work for a reply to my post above too. The yellow card thing is a worry but RAN is also on 4 yellows and probably more likely to get a card yet no one seems to mention it when suggesting to get him.
The current idea I’m thinking is Digne (who is a massive troll) for 4 games then sell to RAN and Jackson for 3 games and then sell to Cunha.
If you’re buying Digne for his attacking threat, that’s ok. However, I wouldn’t be looking at him for clean sheets.
It’s an FPL form of Russian roulette! (ie. Out of six GWs, DIgne will have a CS on only one of them – who knows which one! Hahaha!).
Oh, but I remember when he used to be so promising – then we wised-up after he had broken so many people’s spirit (I mean DIgne, not Matt!). Good luck guys!
Oh it would be attacking threat for sure. Its the same as RAN who I’m not seeing the CS for either. Kerkez might have CS and attacking threat to be honest.
It’s the defence that I’m changing every few seconds. Basically it’s Gab and Hall as locks.
Then Colwill, RAN, Digne, Kerkez and Andersen all fighting for the final 3 spots.
Team looks good. I think the 4YC issue for Jackson is a reason to avoid even though you still have a good 5th mid to take his place
Gabriel + Cunha. Arsenal have a nice long run and CS almost guaranteed, at least that is what I am telling myself. Cunha is streaky and will go on a scoring binge eight ten games, exactly what he did last year. Pity I can’t get him as I have all the money spent on Haaland. Jackson a good option though yes 4 YC means he will miss a plum home game soon. No on RAN as he tends to score unexpectedly and wolves do not do CS