FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. Well that last round certainly was…something. I mean, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Of course Ibrahimovic was going to slow down at some point. And of course Tottenham were going to concede a goal or two eventually. I guess the only real certainty was that Chelsea were going to win with a shutout and Aguero was going to blank again (LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle).
But all in all, it was a week that went pretty much according to script. Arsenal and Chelsea both got wins. Sunderland and Leicester looked like complete messes, and owning some WBA coverage paid off big. Really, unless you put down your rent money on Liverpool to win (and I’m sure somebody out there did), there weren’t a lot of surprises to be had.
And if you were that person that bet the farm on Liverpool, that’s what we call a ‘bridge jumper’ bet here in the States. Good luck to you, poor soul. I can’t help you evade the bookies, or explain the eviction notice to your wife. All I can do is break down some fixtures for this next round. My advice may be good for fantasy, may also be good for a ‘double or nothing’. Who knows?
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Tottenham – SUN (A), MID (H), LIV (A)
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[/three_fifth]The first half of the Man City v Tottenham game this past week had owners everywhere thinking that maybe they had made a great error in putting too much faith into the Spurs. But then when the second half came around, Tottenham showed that they really can be as good as they want to be when they turn it on. And let’s face it, if Lloris hadn’t been a total knob for a second there, Sane wouldn’t have scored and Tottenham would’ve had three points from that match. So the quality is still there. The most telling thing that I saw during that game wasn’t statistical – it was more ‘intuitive’, perhaps? But it really didn’t look like Tottenham were scared of City in the least. Were they frustrated to be down early? For sure. But they never looked like they were pretenders in that game, and that gives me as much confidence as does the hard data surrounding their defensive prowess.
Before I go too much further, let me reiterate: LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle from Aguero.
Getting back on track here, even with the intuitive take on the attitude of Spurs, the data surrounding their defence is still stellar. Only Chelsea and Tottenham remain as the two teams to yet concede 20 goals (they’re at 15 and 16 GA, respectively). And just that base stat alone is a massive success for both clubs. So with a team like Spurs, you tend not to worry when they travel away to face Sunderland this week. Spurs are allowing 0.68 goals per game, and Sunderland are only scoring an average of 0.9 goals per game. It really couldn’t be any more night and day between these clubs.
There’s no sense in spending too much time on the Sunderland game. I mean, it’s already wrapped up, right? That’s as much of a lock as Liverpool v Swansea….
In any event, Middlesbrough shouldn’t be any trouble for Spurs, either. Little known fact: Middlesbrough are the lowest scoring team in the league with only 18 goals scored. Which is crazy, because that stat doesn’t get much air time. I guess the main difference is that they’re out of the relegation zone and, unlike Sunderland, they’ve only conceded a respectable 25 goals on the year. Still, it won’t be enough to outmanoeuvre Tottenham on the road. And finally, as for Spurs playing Liverpool away? It all depends on which version of Liverpool shows up. No doubt Liverpool will be conceding goals, but can they outpace Spurs for 90 minutes? I still give the edge to Tottenham here.
#2) Man United – HUL (H), LEI (A), WAT (H)
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[/three_fifth]Keep in mind that this is a fixtures article – so I have to include United here in this spot. I know that they still have a tendency to play Fellaini, though we don’t know why. I know that their forwards can’t stay onside, though to this point it hasn’t mattered much. United aren’t perfect. Case in point: their last game with Stoke ended up 1-1 and somehow even that felt generous after the way they played. But they’ve done better for themselves in the past, and I think they can get some positive traction again here going forward.
But honestly, look at this run of fixtures here. If you took any team in the top half of the table right now and gave them this list of fixtures, you’d be jumping all over it. And that’s kind of my thought here too. Do United have the talent? Absolutely. But I’m banking more on the failure of their opposition here than I’m banking on United playing to the level of their payroll. But whatever, you know? Wins are wins, and I think United have several coming their way.
Let’s start with Hull – they’re in tough shape. Not only are they not built to win, but now they have to suffer with the fallout of seeing their teammate suffer a truly devastating injury. Add to their woes: they have the worst GD in the league with a -27. Unless they get a miracle loan from the Championship, they’re going down this year, and they seem to know it.
Leicester are broken, through and through. It’s now been three full matches in which they haven’t scored a goal, and they lost their last two matches with 0-3 score lines. They can’t attack and they can’t defend – so it’s no wonder that they’re only 5 points off the relegation line. I’m amazed Mahrez hasn’t demanded a transfer from his AFCON post. The only thing saving this team is the fact that Mahrez is still technically a part of their team, and hopefully he makes himself available for selection now that Algeria have been eliminated from the competition.
Finally Watford are simply treading water, and they’re not making a major play to stay up. They’re more or less banking on the bottom of the table to stay awful and hoping that’s enough to survive. It’s now been seven matches since Watford have claimed a victory (their last was Dec. 10 v Everton) and they don’t seem to have much hope on the horizon. During this winless streak, they’ve added another -8 to their goal differential, and they’ve lost to everybody from Man City to Sunderland. I don’t think Man United should have a problem with them if they play their game.
#3) Arsenal – WAT (H), CHE (A), HUL (H)
Arsene Wenger ‘assaulted’ an official during his last match. Though honestly, it’s hard to see how a geriatric Frenchman is really able to harm anybody. But rules are rules and he’ll probably have to face some consequences for his actions. Does that derail some of the momentum that Arsenal have going right now? They haven’t sold off any of their major pieces to China yet, so I’m still sticking with Arsenal to run effectively on auto-pilot. They’ll still score goals and do a decent enough job at keeping the scoring low against them. Even with all of the rumours and dust-ups this club goes through every January, this squad is still solidly in second place, and none of that effort has been a fluke.
We’ve already covered Watford and Hull above, and I think that Arsenal will have an absolute field day with them both at home. Honestly, there shouldn’t be less than three goals for Arsenal in either of those two fixtures.
The Chelsea game away is interesting. Odds are, in two weeks time, Chelsea and Arsenal will still be 1 and 2 in the table. That game represents a 6-point swing that would allow Arsenal to close the gap between the clubs greatly. I’m not saying that any team can be relied upon to beat Chelsea away this season, but Arsenal will be sufficiently motivated and we could see some fireworks there.
3 Teams To Avoid
#1) Hull City – MUN (A), LIV (H), ARS (A)
I said last week that this team would be posted here in the #1 spot for weeks to come, and that hasn’t changed any. This is an impossible list of fixtures for any team. We discussed the problems with Hull above, but my prediction is that by the time this run is done, that -27 GD they have could conceivably grow to -36 before February is even half done. And that’s a shame.
#2) Watford – ARS (A), BUR (H), MUN (A)
Again, see above for why Watford aren’t a great squad right now. Honestly, if Heaton and Co. are on form for Burnley in the second match, there’s a real chance that Watford will get 0 points through this stretch. They have a minor cushion right now between themselves and the bottom three in the table, but this team is about to dive even a bit more, and should make the relegation battle even that much more interesting.
#3) Sunderland – TOT (H), CRY (A), SOU (H)
Honestly, I thought about putting Chelsea down here as a team to potentially avoid. I mean, they do have to play Liverpool and Arsenal back to back. But then I came to my senses and decided to put the team in 20th place here – not the team in 1st. And maybe in a normal year, we could look at this schedule and say that there’s at least one point in here for Sunderland – hell, maybe there’s even 4 points in here. But we just can’t say that this year. This team finds ways to lose that are truly ingenious. Even David Moyes stopped lying about the club. He freely admits that any purchase they could muster with their limited funds wouldn’t help this club. Until something drastic changes, I have to mark this team down for another run of no points.
One Week Punt
Bournemouth – CRY (H)
Bournemouth aren’t a bad club. They’re a good little club, actually. But being a little club, they tend to fly under the radar quite a bit. They have some defensive issues, as is evidenced by their 39 goals allowed on the year – but they’ve also put forth 32 goals of their own. So in all reality, a -7GD isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, their scoring puts them at 8th best in the league in that category, so it is a wonder why their most owned offensive player comes in at only 4.1% owned.
The thing is, Bournemouth haven’t turned the corner yet to compete consistently against the top half talent, but their stats indicate that they might indeed hold the title of ‘best of the rest’ as it stands now. Bournemouth have had a rough patch as of late, but included in that patch are Arsenal and Chelsea matches. Palace, on the other hand, are on a 4-game losing streak, and I expect Bournemouth to get right in the next round. Should be some good numbers in here for you Stanislas owners.
Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
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Almost every other sport has got video referees who look at the play from all angles and make the decision according to what they and the viewing public see. No problems but the occasional disagreement on tight calls. It takes at the most 2 minutes
Why is football still in the Dark Ages? We have all this technology but don’t use it yet every weekend the referees fail .Why not help them out with referees in a booth who can give a correct decision which a referee on the pitch would/will miss because of the speed of play unfolding in front of him or players blocking his view.The linesmen should be better also and video could help them out as well. Its there, so why not use it because without it the standard of refereeing is appalling. Yet once the final whistle is blown there is no comeback even though there have been obvious errors that tv has highlighted at half-time and full-time.
Couldn’t agree more Kruz. I doubt anyone would. The most affluent sport in the world is the only one which doesn’t innovate or at least mimick others progression.
Anyway what got you?! Was it the Origi dive? 😉
2 minutes is still to long in football IMO, human error is just a part of the game and always has been (See the 66 world cup final), the same rules to professionals should apply to the non professionals who play the game the world over week in and week out. To have people judged at different standards will be bad for the game as a whole IMO.
I disagree Andy. I play amateur football, I don’t need that monitored by videos. I’d still like and welcome the top 4 leagues to have it though. There are livelihoods riding on those decisions. Lower down there aren’t.
Amateur football is still very dependent on on the man in the middle showing up as no Ref equals no game, if people start seeing decisions reversed on the telly week in and week out you know the guy in the middle of that amateur game is going to be in for an earful of s**t (and the rest with the amount of knackers around these days), just see it as being counter productive to the game at large.
I don’t think that would happen. As long as he’s made a genuine call as he’s seen it then usually everyone is fine with it.
I’ll also add that a strike has been for called by amateur Referee’s which could potentially take place in March over the level of abuse they take (Most surprisingly from the kids game’s although I’ll admit it’s been a long time since I’ve been to one of those.), I’m not sure as to how far off the ground it will get though like.
Andy, there are many sports (e.g. rugby, tennis, American Football…) that use technology for the pros and not for the amateurs.
I am not sure how old you are but the ’66 World Cup Final is surely not the most suitable example to cite in favour of avoiding the use of technology.
It always seemed that Blatter was the dinosaur who would not accept technology but now just look at the success of the goal line technology.
There are so many examples of poor decisions that have had a major impact in top flight football e.g. ManU goal vs Liverpool was offside before the cross came in; Kos was offside before he was given a penalty against Burnley; Walker pushed Sterling in the box. Those are just from the last 10 days!
It is 2017 and time for football to move up to date.
This is 2017
Though we should party like it’s 1999
I think we should all just meet up in the year 2000 to discuss.
Won’t it be strange, Deborah?
With woodchip on the wall.
Has technology really made these sports better? From what I’m aware viewing figures are down for both the NFL and Wimbledon with (this is just me speculating a little btw) the length of time it takes to complete a game more than likely playing a major factor, it’s a chore watching the NFL with most games now running into nigh on 4 hours with the amount of time it takes to make a decision taking up a huge chunk of that added time comparative to what it used to be, amazingly enough just because you’ve got video evidence it also won’t guarantee that the correct decision will be given as depending on camera angles incidents can look different.
Technology has greatly improved cricket. Now I realise test cricket can take anything up to 5 days to complete but T20 games are completed quickly and the use of technology does not slow these games down.
I suppose I should point out that they don’t use all the available technology in T20 cricket!!
The use of technology does slow the 20 20 game down but it doesn’t seem as noticeable with Cricket being a stop start game, I refuse to believe that a ball couldn’t of been bowled in the amount of time that it takes to review an incident, cricket and tennis are pretty poor examples with football as neither of them have a set time limit in which a game should be concluded, the real question here Kop is when’s the next 20 20 World Cup? That’ll make for a fun fantasy game.
We have the Champions Trophy in June. Only the top 8 teams will be involved so it should make for a great comp. Hopefully there will be a fantasy game.
But no McCullum…..
Ooh England are hosting, I’ll have a bit of that
Unfortunately not Cookie
Does Gayle still play ODIs?
You never know who’s going to play for WI on any given day as they’re forever in dispute with their board. It doesn’t matter though as WI aren’t involved.
That’s a shame
9 out of my 11 players are playing Away this GW !
One of those GW’s I guess…
BTW, I’m keeping Kun and will Cpt him this week.
No guts, no glory !
For what it’s worth HL, Mito and I have done a Capo Face-off article this week and we picked 3 each. Kun came 7th! That said when I wrote mine I kind of wished I’d picked him as 6th rather than Costa but after tonight I don’t know. Either way he was very low down.
I hear you, mate.
Problem is I don’t have Sanchez and don’t trust Giroud enough to give him the armband.
I am left with the Spurs duo, so I think I ll risk it and give it to Kun…
Team in full :
Foster
Walker McAuley Williams
Pedro Eriksen Lallana Alli
Agüero Costa Giroud
Bench
Jakupovic
Phillips
Aké
Wasilewski
Kun
Giroud
Alli
Eriksen
Would be my order, having said that, I didn’t pick Kun in the face off either, but you will know why.
Mostly because I am irresponsible. 😉
Alli mate. I think they’ll tonk them!
HL, i’d be sorely tempted by either Eriksen or Alli. Think Spurs will cane Sunderland.
Don’t listen to them, they don’t like you.
Is that Alli or Cane then Cookie?!
HL, Eriksen has a brilliant record vs Sunderland. Alli doesn’t.
So Erik for me – from your list.
Alli’s form is second to none. He’s the new Davi(s) Platt
Thanks guys
!
Appreciate all the suggestions!
Now you’ve made it even more difficult for me to choose one, lol…
Not that many of yours here HL but it’s often a good measure of where the Armand ultimately goes for the majority. Will be when people start voting anyway.
https://fantasyfootball247.co.uk/fantasy-premier-league-captain-poll/
I voted for Aguero 😉 …
It will be a late decision anyway…so still time to think about potential scenarios…
That DGW article is the one I’m waiting, so I can start planning accordingly…
guys can i have your thoughts on robles as first choice keeper for my team. I currently have cech but will be looking to get rid of him before arsenal play chelsea and given the fact arsenal have blank for gw26 and potentialy gw28. Is robles first pick for everton. I like his fixtures and him being free gw28.
My other keeper is pickford, has there been any news on when he is likely to be back?
thanks in advance.
Pickford has a meeting with a specialist this week to ascertain if he can resume training so it all depends on that, not checked if it was today or later in the week but either way he’ll still be a bit away from being available I’d imagine.
Robles will be number 1 from now I think. He’s come in and coincided with clean sheets so no reason he won’t be.
Thanks, prior to gw26 ill be lloking to bring in lukaku for aguero again due to gw26 and 28. Do you think id be better of getting costa or kane. Lukaku is only coz everton dont have a blank on gw28. I still have wildcard so that will be gettin used to tidy up my team in prep for dgws
See what the weekend says about other potential blanks in 28, or otherwise.
I’d be happy enough with Robles. I think Everton have upped their game defensively and have nice fixtures coming up. Only other keeper I’d be happy suggesting is Heaton decent enough fixtures so could nab a few CS but the save and bonus points alone make him worth it.
Buy Fellaini
Nooooooo – where’s he going??
Plan B for LFC
Yeah I got ya mate.
Think they’re still whinging that they were tactically outplayed over 180 mins. Bless ’em
So, starting tomorrow, Utd and Hull start a 3 games in 7 days period! Is this xmas?
Morning everyone.
So with Mali leaving the tournament yesterday, Bakary Sako of Crystal Palace will be returning from the Africa Nations Cup.
Yeah, not a huge one is it?
Morning GP,
I can only assume he’ll be appearing in next week’s Tips article….
Shhhh
You’re giving the game away!
Not your turn again is it?
Fricking hope not