Share This Post

Fantasy Football Fixtures / Latest Articles

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23

FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23

Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. Well that last round certainly was…something. I mean, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Of course Ibrahimovic was going to slow down at some point. And of course Tottenham were going to concede a goal or two eventually. I guess the only real certainty was that Chelsea were going to win with a shutout and Aguero was going to blank again (LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle).

But all in all, it was a week that went pretty much according to script. Arsenal and Chelsea both got wins. Sunderland and Leicester looked like complete messes, and owning some WBA coverage paid off big. Really, unless you put down your rent money on Liverpool to win (and I’m sure somebody out there did), there weren’t a lot of surprises to be had.

And if you were that person that bet the farm on Liverpool, that’s what we call a ‘bridge jumper’ bet here in the States. Good luck to you, poor soul. I can’t help you evade the bookies, or explain the eviction notice to your wife. All I can do is break down some fixtures for this next round. My advice may be good for fantasy, may also be good for a ‘double or nothing’. Who knows?

The Tracker in full…

FT Diff

Top 3 Best Bets

#1) Tottenham – SUN (A), MID (H), LIV (A)

[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fifth]The first half of the Man City v Tottenham game this past week had owners everywhere thinking that maybe they had made a great error in putting too much faith into the Spurs. But then when the second half came around, Tottenham showed that they really can be as good as they want to be when they turn it on. And let’s face it, if Lloris hadn’t been a total knob for a second there, Sane wouldn’t have scored and Tottenham would’ve had three points from that match. So the quality is still there. The most telling thing that I saw during that game wasn’t statistical – it was more ‘intuitive’, perhaps? But it really didn’t look like Tottenham were scared of City in the least. Were they frustrated to be down early? For sure. But they never looked like they were pretenders in that game, and that gives me as much confidence as does the hard data surrounding their defensive prowess.

Before I go too much further, let me reiterate: LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle from Aguero.

Getting back on track here, even with the intuitive take on the attitude of Spurs, the data surrounding their defence is still stellar. Only Chelsea and Tottenham remain as the two teams to yet concede 20 goals (they’re at 15 and 16 GA, respectively). And just that base stat alone is a massive success for both clubs. So with a team like Spurs, you tend not to worry when they travel away to face Sunderland this week. Spurs are allowing 0.68 goals per game, and Sunderland are only scoring an average of 0.9 goals per game. It really couldn’t be any more night and day between these clubs.

There’s no sense in spending too much time on the Sunderland game. I mean, it’s already wrapped up, right? That’s as much of a lock as Liverpool v Swansea….

In any event, Middlesbrough shouldn’t be any trouble for Spurs, either. Little known fact: Middlesbrough are the lowest scoring team in the league with only 18 goals scored. Which is crazy, because that stat doesn’t get much air time. I guess the main difference is that they’re out of the relegation zone and, unlike Sunderland, they’ve only conceded a respectable 25 goals on the year. Still, it won’t be enough to outmanoeuvre Tottenham on the road. And finally, as for Spurs playing Liverpool away? It all depends on which version of Liverpool shows up. No doubt Liverpool will be conceding goals, but can they outpace Spurs for 90 minutes? I still give the edge to Tottenham here.

#2) Man United – HUL (H), LEI (A), WAT (H)

[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]

[/three_fifth]Keep in mind that this is a fixtures article – so I have to include United here in this spot. I know that they still have a tendency to play Fellaini, though we don’t know why. I know that their forwards can’t stay onside, though to this point it hasn’t mattered much. United aren’t perfect. Case in point: their last game with Stoke ended up 1-1 and somehow even that felt generous after the way they played. But they’ve done better for themselves in the past, and I think they can get some positive traction again here going forward.

But honestly, look at this run of fixtures here. If you took any team in the top half of the table right now and gave them this list of fixtures, you’d be jumping all over it. And that’s kind of my thought here too. Do United have the talent? Absolutely. But I’m banking more on the failure of their opposition here than I’m banking on United playing to the level of their payroll. But whatever, you know? Wins are wins, and I think United have several coming their way.

Let’s start with Hull – they’re in tough shape. Not only are they not built to win, but now they have to suffer with the fallout of seeing their teammate suffer a truly devastating injury. Add to their woes: they have the worst GD in the league with a -27. Unless they get a miracle loan from the Championship, they’re going down this year, and they seem to know it.

Leicester are broken, through and through. It’s now been three full matches in which they haven’t scored a goal, and they lost their last two matches with 0-3 score lines. They can’t attack and they can’t defend – so it’s no wonder that they’re only 5 points off the relegation line. I’m amazed Mahrez hasn’t demanded a transfer from his AFCON post. The only thing saving this team is the fact that Mahrez is still technically a part of their team, and hopefully he makes himself available for selection now that Algeria have been eliminated from the competition.

Finally Watford are simply treading water, and they’re not making a major play to stay up. They’re more or less banking on the bottom of the table to stay awful and hoping that’s enough to survive. It’s now been seven matches since Watford have claimed a victory (their last was Dec. 10 v Everton) and they don’t seem to have much hope on the horizon. During this winless streak, they’ve added another -8 to their goal differential, and they’ve lost to everybody from Man City to Sunderland. I don’t think Man United should have a problem with them if they play their game.

#3) Arsenal – WAT (H), CHE (A), HUL (H)

Arsene Wenger ‘assaulted’ an official during his last match. Though honestly, it’s hard to see how a geriatric Frenchman is really able to harm anybody. But rules are rules and he’ll probably have to face some consequences for his actions. Does that derail some of the momentum that Arsenal have going right now? They haven’t sold off any of their major pieces to China yet, so I’m still sticking with Arsenal to run effectively on auto-pilot. They’ll still score goals and do a decent enough job at keeping the scoring low against them. Even with all of the rumours and dust-ups this club goes through every January, this squad is still solidly in second place, and none of that effort has been a fluke.

We’ve already covered Watford and Hull above, and I think that Arsenal will have an absolute field day with them both at home. Honestly, there shouldn’t be less than three goals for Arsenal in either of those two fixtures.

The Chelsea game away is interesting. Odds are, in two weeks time, Chelsea and Arsenal will still be 1 and 2 in the table. That game represents a 6-point swing that would allow Arsenal to close the gap between the clubs greatly. I’m not saying that any team can be relied upon to beat Chelsea away this season, but Arsenal will be sufficiently motivated and we could see some fireworks there.

3 Teams To Avoid

#1) Hull City – MUN (A), LIV (H), ARS (A)

I said last week that this team would be posted here in the #1 spot for weeks to come, and that hasn’t changed any. This is an impossible list of fixtures for any team. We discussed the problems with Hull above, but my prediction is that by the time this run is done, that -27 GD they have could conceivably grow to -36 before February is even half done. And that’s a shame.

#2) Watford – ARS (A), BUR (H), MUN (A)

Again, see above for why Watford aren’t a great squad right now. Honestly, if Heaton and Co. are on form for Burnley in the second match, there’s a real chance that Watford will get 0 points through this stretch. They have a minor cushion right now between themselves and the bottom three in the table, but this team is about to dive even a bit more, and should make the relegation battle even that much more interesting.

#3) Sunderland – TOT (H), CRY (A), SOU (H)

Honestly, I thought about putting Chelsea down here as a team to potentially avoid. I mean, they do have to play Liverpool and Arsenal back to back. But then I came to my senses and decided to put the team in 20th place here – not the team in 1st. And maybe in a normal year, we could look at this schedule and say that there’s at least one point in here for Sunderland – hell, maybe there’s even 4 points in here. But we just can’t say that this year. This team finds ways to lose that are truly ingenious. Even David Moyes stopped lying about the club. He freely admits that any purchase they could muster with their limited funds wouldn’t help this club. Until something drastic changes, I have to mark this team down for another run of no points.

One Week Punt

Bournemouth – CRY (H)

Bournemouth aren’t a bad club. They’re a good little club, actually. But being a little club, they tend to fly under the radar quite a bit. They have some defensive issues, as is evidenced by their 39 goals allowed on the year – but they’ve also put forth 32 goals of their own. So in all reality, a -7GD isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, their scoring puts them at 8th best in the league in that category, so it is a wonder why their most owned offensive player comes in at only 4.1% owned.

The thing is, Bournemouth haven’t turned the corner yet to compete consistently against the top half talent, but their stats indicate that they might indeed hold the title of ‘best of the rest’ as it stands now. Bournemouth have had a rough patch as of late, but included in that patch are Arsenal and Chelsea matches. Palace, on the other hand, are on a 4-game losing streak, and I expect Bournemouth to get right in the next round. Should be some good numbers in here for you Stanislas owners.

Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. This article was written by Guy Sanchez



Vote on our Captain Poll Now

captain-poll-article1







We are running the main public FF247 League which anyone is welcome to join by using the following code 1147-701 (auto-link below). This one has a prize pool of £250 which is sponsored by @FootballFanager and will be paid into your account on their website. The top 5 places are paid out.
Join Our League – Quick Link
League Code: 1147-701
View league standings
New for the 2016/17 we are delighted to announce we are running a Regulars League which has a cash prize pool of £300 paid directly to the winners from the FF247 management team.
To enter this one you need to be an active and recognised site member and you need to e-mail us for the league code – Elleffcee@fantasyfootball247.co.uk *terms and conditions apply and are available upon request. Management reserve the right to review membership of this league on an ongoing basis.

Share This Post

281 Comments

  1. 31
    Leprechaun says:

    Many people advocate holding transfers until close to the deadlines as this eliminates the risk of training injuries. The Chambers case is a good example. However there have been many occasions when significant team value has been saved or gained with an early transfer.
    It just shows that for all our efforts, luck does still play a part in this game. In case anyone thought it was all skill smile

  2. 32
    Snookie Bear says:

    Was going to do Kelly to Brunt but now that Chambers is also gone think will have to do something else. Chambers, Kelly and Amat not playing also having Watford defender isn’t much help 😛
    So thinking of going for Nyom now though I want to go for Brunt but no one is there in that price bracket with good fixtures. Any suggestions on what to do? Get rid of Chambers first or Kelly?

    1FT, 0.9itb

    • 32.2
      SAFs_hairdryer says:

      Will you be log value on Kelly or Chambers if you wait a week?

      I’m just thinking of replacements for Chambers and considered Friend, Nyom or Yoshida. Take you pick from those. all have good fixtures for the next few weeks

      • Snookie Bear says:

        Already have Foster but yeah can do with Yoshida and then downgrade keeper to cheaper to free up more funds and no not losing any value I think maybe Chambers as he’s 4.5 atm and I got him for 4.4 but don’t care abt that tbh

        • Raziel says:

          You def. should not take too many risks long before games by selling players for their value (win or lose). However, in the long run, it can be pretty important. It can be the difference between a good squad and a superb squad. I hope when I get to use my wildcard I finally produce a perfect squad. laugh

        • Snookie Bear says:

          Agree with you raz I am talking about this situation only i.e. Chambers laugh

  3. 33
    jamesimmo says:

    Guy, thanks a lot, mate. Looks like some Spurs coverage is gonna have to come in. Won’t be Kane, though, by the sounds of it!

  4. 34
    shanec says:

    Evening all.
    Take a hit or ride it out this week?

  5. 35
    man u man says:

    Guys I have a problem with Chambers being out and is it worth taking another hit?,,I’ve already taken two early ones for a -4 already…I know, I know…stupid or what? Or would it be wiser to ride it out this week and address the problem next week?
    My team:
    Randolph
    Jones Nyom Baines
    Stan Alexis Erik Lallana
    Costa Kun Ibra.
    Subs: Jaku Carrick Chambers Amat.
    Thanks a mill guys.

  6. 36
    smithy says:

    Hi guys need some help please!

    I have 2FTs and 1.9m in the bank?

    • 36.1
      Andy says:

      I’d maybe look at a sideways move of Lallana to either Firminio or Coutinho with 2 FT’s banked and save the other one, I’d start Mcauley over Pieters as well this GW.

Leave a Reply

Go to Latest CommentsView Now