FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23
Welcome to FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. Well that last round certainly was…something. I mean, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Of course Ibrahimovic was going to slow down at some point. And of course Tottenham were going to concede a goal or two eventually. I guess the only real certainty was that Chelsea were going to win with a shutout and Aguero was going to blank again (LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle).
But all in all, it was a week that went pretty much according to script. Arsenal and Chelsea both got wins. Sunderland and Leicester looked like complete messes, and owning some WBA coverage paid off big. Really, unless you put down your rent money on Liverpool to win (and I’m sure somebody out there did), there weren’t a lot of surprises to be had.
And if you were that person that bet the farm on Liverpool, that’s what we call a ‘bridge jumper’ bet here in the States. Good luck to you, poor soul. I can’t help you evade the bookies, or explain the eviction notice to your wife. All I can do is break down some fixtures for this next round. My advice may be good for fantasy, may also be good for a ‘double or nothing’. Who knows?
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets
#1) Tottenham – SUN (A), MID (H), LIV (A)
[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]
[/three_fifth]The first half of the Man City v Tottenham game this past week had owners everywhere thinking that maybe they had made a great error in putting too much faith into the Spurs. But then when the second half came around, Tottenham showed that they really can be as good as they want to be when they turn it on. And let’s face it, if Lloris hadn’t been a total knob for a second there, Sane wouldn’t have scored and Tottenham would’ve had three points from that match. So the quality is still there. The most telling thing that I saw during that game wasn’t statistical – it was more ‘intuitive’, perhaps? But it really didn’t look like Tottenham were scared of City in the least. Were they frustrated to be down early? For sure. But they never looked like they were pretenders in that game, and that gives me as much confidence as does the hard data surrounding their defensive prowess.
Before I go too much further, let me reiterate: LOL’s to the 20% of you wasting nearly 13m still hoping for a miracle from Aguero.
Getting back on track here, even with the intuitive take on the attitude of Spurs, the data surrounding their defence is still stellar. Only Chelsea and Tottenham remain as the two teams to yet concede 20 goals (they’re at 15 and 16 GA, respectively). And just that base stat alone is a massive success for both clubs. So with a team like Spurs, you tend not to worry when they travel away to face Sunderland this week. Spurs are allowing 0.68 goals per game, and Sunderland are only scoring an average of 0.9 goals per game. It really couldn’t be any more night and day between these clubs.
There’s no sense in spending too much time on the Sunderland game. I mean, it’s already wrapped up, right? That’s as much of a lock as Liverpool v Swansea….
In any event, Middlesbrough shouldn’t be any trouble for Spurs, either. Little known fact: Middlesbrough are the lowest scoring team in the league with only 18 goals scored. Which is crazy, because that stat doesn’t get much air time. I guess the main difference is that they’re out of the relegation zone and, unlike Sunderland, they’ve only conceded a respectable 25 goals on the year. Still, it won’t be enough to outmanoeuvre Tottenham on the road. And finally, as for Spurs playing Liverpool away? It all depends on which version of Liverpool shows up. No doubt Liverpool will be conceding goals, but can they outpace Spurs for 90 minutes? I still give the edge to Tottenham here.
#2) Man United – HUL (H), LEI (A), WAT (H)
[three_fifth padding=”0 20px 0 0″]
[/three_fifth]Keep in mind that this is a fixtures article – so I have to include United here in this spot. I know that they still have a tendency to play Fellaini, though we don’t know why. I know that their forwards can’t stay onside, though to this point it hasn’t mattered much. United aren’t perfect. Case in point: their last game with Stoke ended up 1-1 and somehow even that felt generous after the way they played. But they’ve done better for themselves in the past, and I think they can get some positive traction again here going forward.
But honestly, look at this run of fixtures here. If you took any team in the top half of the table right now and gave them this list of fixtures, you’d be jumping all over it. And that’s kind of my thought here too. Do United have the talent? Absolutely. But I’m banking more on the failure of their opposition here than I’m banking on United playing to the level of their payroll. But whatever, you know? Wins are wins, and I think United have several coming their way.
Let’s start with Hull – they’re in tough shape. Not only are they not built to win, but now they have to suffer with the fallout of seeing their teammate suffer a truly devastating injury. Add to their woes: they have the worst GD in the league with a -27. Unless they get a miracle loan from the Championship, they’re going down this year, and they seem to know it.
Leicester are broken, through and through. It’s now been three full matches in which they haven’t scored a goal, and they lost their last two matches with 0-3 score lines. They can’t attack and they can’t defend – so it’s no wonder that they’re only 5 points off the relegation line. I’m amazed Mahrez hasn’t demanded a transfer from his AFCON post. The only thing saving this team is the fact that Mahrez is still technically a part of their team, and hopefully he makes himself available for selection now that Algeria have been eliminated from the competition.
Finally Watford are simply treading water, and they’re not making a major play to stay up. They’re more or less banking on the bottom of the table to stay awful and hoping that’s enough to survive. It’s now been seven matches since Watford have claimed a victory (their last was Dec. 10 v Everton) and they don’t seem to have much hope on the horizon. During this winless streak, they’ve added another -8 to their goal differential, and they’ve lost to everybody from Man City to Sunderland. I don’t think Man United should have a problem with them if they play their game.
#3) Arsenal – WAT (H), CHE (A), HUL (H)
Arsene Wenger ‘assaulted’ an official during his last match. Though honestly, it’s hard to see how a geriatric Frenchman is really able to harm anybody. But rules are rules and he’ll probably have to face some consequences for his actions. Does that derail some of the momentum that Arsenal have going right now? They haven’t sold off any of their major pieces to China yet, so I’m still sticking with Arsenal to run effectively on auto-pilot. They’ll still score goals and do a decent enough job at keeping the scoring low against them. Even with all of the rumours and dust-ups this club goes through every January, this squad is still solidly in second place, and none of that effort has been a fluke.
We’ve already covered Watford and Hull above, and I think that Arsenal will have an absolute field day with them both at home. Honestly, there shouldn’t be less than three goals for Arsenal in either of those two fixtures.
The Chelsea game away is interesting. Odds are, in two weeks time, Chelsea and Arsenal will still be 1 and 2 in the table. That game represents a 6-point swing that would allow Arsenal to close the gap between the clubs greatly. I’m not saying that any team can be relied upon to beat Chelsea away this season, but Arsenal will be sufficiently motivated and we could see some fireworks there.
3 Teams To Avoid
#1) Hull City – MUN (A), LIV (H), ARS (A)
I said last week that this team would be posted here in the #1 spot for weeks to come, and that hasn’t changed any. This is an impossible list of fixtures for any team. We discussed the problems with Hull above, but my prediction is that by the time this run is done, that -27 GD they have could conceivably grow to -36 before February is even half done. And that’s a shame.
#2) Watford – ARS (A), BUR (H), MUN (A)
Again, see above for why Watford aren’t a great squad right now. Honestly, if Heaton and Co. are on form for Burnley in the second match, there’s a real chance that Watford will get 0 points through this stretch. They have a minor cushion right now between themselves and the bottom three in the table, but this team is about to dive even a bit more, and should make the relegation battle even that much more interesting.
#3) Sunderland – TOT (H), CRY (A), SOU (H)
Honestly, I thought about putting Chelsea down here as a team to potentially avoid. I mean, they do have to play Liverpool and Arsenal back to back. But then I came to my senses and decided to put the team in 20th place here – not the team in 1st. And maybe in a normal year, we could look at this schedule and say that there’s at least one point in here for Sunderland – hell, maybe there’s even 4 points in here. But we just can’t say that this year. This team finds ways to lose that are truly ingenious. Even David Moyes stopped lying about the club. He freely admits that any purchase they could muster with their limited funds wouldn’t help this club. Until something drastic changes, I have to mark this team down for another run of no points.
One Week Punt
Bournemouth – CRY (H)
Bournemouth aren’t a bad club. They’re a good little club, actually. But being a little club, they tend to fly under the radar quite a bit. They have some defensive issues, as is evidenced by their 39 goals allowed on the year – but they’ve also put forth 32 goals of their own. So in all reality, a -7GD isn’t the worst thing in the world. In fact, their scoring puts them at 8th best in the league in that category, so it is a wonder why their most owned offensive player comes in at only 4.1% owned.
The thing is, Bournemouth haven’t turned the corner yet to compete consistently against the top half talent, but their stats indicate that they might indeed hold the title of ‘best of the rest’ as it stands now. Bournemouth have had a rough patch as of late, but included in that patch are Arsenal and Chelsea matches. Palace, on the other hand, are on a 4-game losing streak, and I expect Bournemouth to get right in the next round. Should be some good numbers in here for you Stanislas owners.
Thanks for reading FPL Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 23. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
Vote on our Captain Poll Now
1 Ft and 0.5 in the bank.
Not sure what to do this week. Was going to save my ft but now I’m not sure. Any advice would be greatly appreciated
Wafflez, I would stick with your original thought and hold the transfer.
Thanks Cookie, will probably save my transfer
I’m not convinced at all with Liverpool at the moment but I do want to take Lallana out though.
Same as his value his going to plummet over the coming days
Pool mids are way too many
Coutinho Firmino Lallana Milner. How do you pick 1
And if Mane comes back that it 5 :rant:
If only there had been a Sanchez of all teams :satansmoking:
Jones starts. Not sweet for me
Two things
1. Liverpool won’t be having a blank on GW 26 right?
2. Arsenal and Soton blank on GW 26? And so do Man City and Utd if Utd go through tonight, which they will
That is correct. No man city, man u, arsenal or Southampton!
Cheers cj
Hi all. I thought I would share with you all my thoughts for my four week strategy. I usually don’t look any further than two weeks (due to the obvious inevitable twists, injuries and unforeseen circumstances we all learn to love and really really hate). Well I think that the ff247 site has been terrific in highlighting the importance of the next month and would like to say thank you in advance to all the contributors that have helped me over the years.
February is going to bring at least two double game weeks with it and this is something that I have been concentrating very hard on over this quiet week whilst we have a run of cup games (up the saints – we’re off to Wembley)! I am currently just outside the top 1000 and I really want to try and get inside the top 500 over this complicated time. I am winning all my mini leagues and near the top on some of my head to heads, so having a great season so far.
I made an early change this week (which may have been a little rash), but I sold Van Aanholt and brought in Jones of Manchester United. He is the cheapest of the Man U defenders and with their upcoming fixtures, and the balance it gives my defensive rotations, it was an easy switch for me. Hope you agree? This is my team as it stands for next week:
Gameweek 23
Heaton (Home v Leicester)
Coleman (Away v Stoke)
Koscielny (Home v Watford)
Daniels (Home v Crystal)
Jones (Home v Hull)
Erikson (Away v Sunderland)
Sanchez (Home v Watford)
Stanislas (Home v Crystal)
Phillips (Away v Borough)
Ibrahimovic (Home v Hull)
Kane (Away v Sunderland)
Subs: Foster (Away v Borough), Defoe (Home v Spurs), McAuley (Away v Borough), Capoue (Away v Arsenal).
I am happy with my team and think I have a good balance amongst my defence and attack. I then plan on saving my transfer. The squad could be strengthened of course, but feel like the squad below has enough coverage to get me through the week and hopefully will see me a little closer to the top 1000. Here is my predicted line-up for game week 24 as things stand for now:
Gameweek 24
Foster (Home v Stoke)
Coleman (Home v Sunderland)
McAuley (Home v Stoke)
Jones (Away v Leicester)
Erikson (Home v Borough)
Sanchez (Away v Chelsea)
Phillips (Home v Stoke)
Capoue (Home v Burnley)
Ibrahimovic (Away v Leicester)
Kane (Home v Borough)
Defoe (Away v Palace)
There are one or two tough away fixtures there and I know it is a tough ask for West Brom to keep a clean sheet against Stoke, but I think it is worth the risk to save the transfer. But if people feel I should be considering other players at this point, please make any suggestions. Really value your opinions. After this I am really focused on putting the changes into place for upcoming tough week 26.
Gameweek 25 [Have 0.3 ITB]
Heaton (Home v Chelsea) – Hoping for lots of saves
Koscielny (Home v Hull)
Jones (Home v Watford)
Alonso (Away v Burnley) – Sell Daniels [5.1] Alonso [6.6]
Coleman (Away v Borough)
Erikson (Away v Liverpool)
Sanchez (Home v Hull)
Stanislas (Home v Man City)
Kane (Away v Liverpool)
Costa (Away v Burnley) – Sell Ibra [11.6] for Costa [10.4]
Defoe (Home v Saints)
This will then free up two spaces in a Bournemouth and Manchester United player who will not be playing the following week. I will only lose out 0.1 on Ibra, so if I have to go back to him, it wont be too costly.
So what do you think?
Many thanks guys.
Chris
That was like one big article mate
Jones is a worry now
Smalling Rojo Bailly and Jones fighting for the 2 CB spots
Plus if Jose makes Shaw play at LB, even Blind becomes a contender for a CB spot
And Jones starting in cup tonight isn’t the best of signs
On another note, great to see Saints at the final here. A Gooner here but would love to see them hold the cup
Thank you and fingers crossed for jones
And yes, brilliant rank mate
May be you could saved the bench boost for a DGW but 1.3k is just wonderful mate
Keep up the great work
Jones starting tonight could actually be a very good sign in that it means he gets the weekend off and plays in GW23 next Weds.
I hope so! I brought him in the other night for Ake 😉
That is great news Sir
Just hope he starts this week atleast
This weekend Nishant? If he starts this weekend that chance he’ll play midweek is rather small, right?
This week in terms of EPL week
Midweek that is, GW 23
How have the blanks struck your team mate?
I’ve got Jones Zlatan Sanchez and Giroud not playing
And Marney my fifth mid is red flagged
If everything stays fine with form, I will be benching Sanchez and Ibra
Zlatan started while they have a 2-0 lead? *shakes head*
Plays tonight, ensures they get to Wembley, sits out of the FA Cup at the weekend.
It’s funny how United are completely relying on a 35-year old striker while they bought Pogba as the most expensive player in Europe ever. I am sure China surpassed that by now?
Relentless!!
Me I just love to see him play. Anyway anytime :popcorn: :worthy:
He almost played for Arsenal. Man, Wenger messed up that one. LOL!
Zlatan doesn’t do auditions.
Happy Wenger messed up since I got to see him shine for Ajax. Was from another planet when younger. He’s still good, but his age shows. Always been a fan, even though he can also be crazy. Hehe.
Indeed
Two strikers from Ajax really
Ibra and Suarez
:ok:
And before that? Bergkamp. You might know him? 😉
Crazy may be. But I have seen Bergkamps brilliance in the Gunner shirt
I didn’t actually mean that Ajax haven’t produced great folks mate. I started to know those two folks during their reign at Ajax.
I think Bergkamp won the CL and treble with Ajax in 1995? Or am I completely off now? Jari Litmanen, hehe. Kluivert. Overmars. Edgar Davids. Frank de Boer. All legends. Omg, Nwanku Kanu. Hehe. Finidi George.
Omg, even Frank RIjkaard was at the 1995 squad, I think.
Forgot about Seedorf. ANd lol, I see Kluivert started from the bench. He scored the winner though, versus AC Milan.
Omg, Danny Blind (father of Daley) was a central defender for AJax in the final. Damn, that was a good looking squad.
Overmards – Ronald de Boer – Finidi George
Edgar Davids – Jari Litmanen – Clarence Seedorf
Rijkaard – Frank de Boer – Blind – Reiziger
Van der Sar
Kluivert and Kanu on bench. Just like Bogarde, a player that could have been so much better, could have been like Jaap Stam.
Phil Jones got a yellow. Is he now suspended for the next EPL meeting? :p
Just looked, dude has 0 yellow cards in the EPL. He is a saint!
Damn, 1-0 Hull. If they only got a draw in their last game.
Saint? Haha
Barca playing too. Jasper Cillessen, he is Dutch right? Was he the GK in 2014 WCs?
Yeah, I always find it funny when somewhat talented goalies prefer to be a benchie at a topteam. Vorm went to Spurs knowing Lloris played there, Jasper went to Barca.
Just like I think it’s an absolute waste for a player like Mensah to play 2 minutes per season. Same with Ake. Ake finally got some playing time and he was developing, now he is benchie at Chelski. IT’s like a career hold, standstill. I don’t get these players.
Such a waste. If Ake would have been smart, he would have stayed in the Netherlands and grown to be a good player and go to a foreign team at the age of 21 or 22. Anyway, whatever. These kids don’t understand, it’s all above their heads when money is thrown at them and things are promised to their families.
Also don’t you think Romero deserves a start at Utd for the cups?
Jose is Jose. But he is being very very cautious at Utd.
Wonder why it might be so
They’ll be plenty of rotation at the weekend Nishant.
Tonight is about getting through to the final.
However, they’re making hard work of it
@ Nishant
Mourinho is relentless. It’s only the result that counts. This is at the cost of youth players but also second goalies. But it is what it is, you know what you get when you bring him in.
@ Cookie
FPL wise it would be much better if United were kicked out, don’t you think? :p
Means Cit and United get to play.
Also, Hull and Burnley won’t play. A game nobody cares about.
Hmmmm
Strange how the PL has changed over the years
Hell I used to fear to hear the name Sir Alex Ferguson. Man that Utd team under him was something. Even during his ending stages, whoever he trusted produced, Berbatov Chicharito, Oh and those goals from MacHeda (i guess everyone still remembers them).
Modern day football has changed really
At times I just miss those old days, which were less surprising in terms of results but the intensity was high mentally as well as physically
FPL wise and to create more carnage for the BGW & DGWs I reckon we want City & United not to play in 26 – makes it more fun!
Raz I have Jaku and the Lord of Goalies Heaton 😉
Sir Alex Ferguson was a genius Nishant.
Just look at the team that beat Arsenal 8-2
I am with you on this Cookie
Utd Arsenal City on a DGW
Delicious
My WC would love to get all of them and my Bench boost too
I don’t remember exactly Sir but either Nani or Young scored a screamer in that game
That 8-2 was humiliating
And that 6 goal humiliation under Jose’s Chelsea
I do! Left Leeds festival early Sunday morning to get back and watch the game!
Had the worst hangover going and then we capitulated and made my day even worse!
I turned my phone off and didn’t bother with sky sports for a few days and when I returned to work on the Wednesday I just snarled at my colleagues when they tried to take the piss!
Our defence was gash that day!!
Was one such day