FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38
Welcome to FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38. Ladies and gentleman, we’ve arrived at the end of this year’s journey. Some would say that the end has come too soon, whilst others are looking at their pitiful DGW scores for this current round…and they’re thinking the end can’t get here soon enough. I fall somewhere in the middle of those two sentiments; one part of me would love to see football every weekend, and the other part of me is just ready for some cold beer and baseball on a lazy Saturday. What else is a man supposed to do on Saturday? Watch MLS?
Oh yeah, I’ve signed myself up for that, haven’t I?
As for the matter at hand, this being the final gameweek of the FPL season, I feel that I’ve drawn the short straw in trying to craft any kind of article that makes any sense for you all. With just a few exceptions, the league is wrapped up for most teams. And when that happens, the motivations for playing would seemingly all disappear, correct? At least I thought as much until I looked at the results from last year’s final weekend, and it was a scoring bonanza. That last weekend from 15/16 had an average of 3.5 goals per game, and only two teams failed to score. So maybe it isn’t so dire. The league positions might be locked in, but maybe that’s all the incentive the players will need to go out and play a pressure-free game. Or maybe I’ve jinxed it. We’ll see soon enough.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets (Fixtures)
In lieu of anything more inspired on my part, I’m going to point out the obvious – there are really three games on the schedule for the final weekend that can’t be ignored. I can’t tell you now whether the favoured teams will trot out the B squad or not, but on paper these games should be gimmies.
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[/three_fifth]#1) Chelsea (H) v Sunderland – There’s no two ways about this: Sunderland are in last place, already relegated – Chelsea are in first place, already crowned league champs. I guess the real question is this: will Chelsea come out and try to give the fans a great show on their last day of the year? They’ll be given the trophy at home, so it stands to reason they won’t be wanting to drop an easy game against the worst team in the league prior to fixing that prize in their trophy case. Really, of all the games this coming weekend, the circumstances for that game actually line up pretty well for owners of Chelsea players. The threat of being embarrassed prior to all of that ceremony won’t be tolerated, and I’m guessing Chelsea hang at least three on Sunderland just for good measure.
As has been the case with Chelsea all year, they’re a good buy from front to back. Diego Costa already has his 20 goals on the year, but he’s still 4 goals off the pace for the Golden Boot race. That being said, he’ll probably be keen on ensuring that he finishes as one of the top five scorers in the league, if not trying to secure top three for himself. His motivation is obvious in that sense. Eden Hazard, for all the praise we’ve given him this year, hasn’t been that dynamic from a statistical standpoint. He’s in a tie for 9th or 10th in the league for goal scoring, and he’s way off the pace in the leading assister category – so he might be a good omission from your team in favour of securing an extra defender. Or, he’ll realize that the world is watching that final game in anticipation of the trophy ceremony, and he’ll kick it up a notch. Hard to tell with that one, but Costa is probably higher on my list at the moment. And as always, any starter from across the backline of Chelsea is a good buy. Really can’t go wrong there.
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[/three_fifth]#2) Liverpool (H) v Middlesbrough – As of the writing of this article, Liverpool haven’t quite wrapped up their Top 4 spot yet. If Arsenal win their last two, and Man City win their last game, Liverpool could be knocked off their perch if they fail to beat Middlesbrough. How convenient for them then that Middlesbrough are one of the worst teams in the league, and their relegation has been fully deserved with the level of play the showed this year. Middlesbrough’s 27 goals on the year are still worst in the league, and with a rate of 0.73 goals per game, it’s hard to see how Liverpool don’t handle this team with ease and secure that coveted position.
Unless Arsenal somehow drop points to Sunderland later this week, Liverpool will approach this game with an ‘all hands on deck’ mentality. And in that case, you have to stick with what works if you’re buying into this team for the final round. With Firmino still a question mark, and Mane sidelined, Coutinho has to be on the top of your shopping list for this round. But, if you’re in a money crunch, Georginio Wijnaldum might be worth a shout; his assists (8) were bolstered by him nabbing a pair in his last game. In an ordinary week, I wouldn’t be tempted by the Liverpool defence. But against Middlesbrough, everything changes. Liverpool, statistically speaking, are always going to give up a little better than a goal per game on average – but when the opposition can’t score goals? You might do something like slip Dejan Lovren into your formation and see if he can’t nab a surprise goal to go along with his probable clean sheet.
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[/three_fifth]#3) Tottenham (A) vs Hull – On the surface, this game should be no challenge for Tottenham. Based on talent vs talent, the league’s second place team shouldn’t have any worries over the latest relegation victims. But then you have to remember that Tottenham did lose to Newcastle last year in the season finale to the tune of 5-1… The chances of that happening twice, however? Slim to none. Hull will try to make the most of their last game at home in front of the fans, but Spurs really don’t have to work all that hard to show those same fans that their club isn’t Premiership material.
Again, I’m writing this article before the closure of GW37, so the one thing that’s still in play for this week is that fact that Harry Kane still has the ability to close the gap on the Golden Boot award. Kane currently sits on 22 goals with a game in hand, Lukaku has 24 goals. So Kane, above anybody else, deserves inclusion in your team if you choose the Spurs’ options. The rest will sort of pick itself, no? I’m sure if you already have Eriksen or Alli, you’ll probably stick with them as opposed to burning a transfer. But in defence, maybe the savvy move would be to swap those Spurs players out for the finale. Now I may be making this ending to the Hull run in the Premier League a bit more storybook than it actually is, but you get a sense that Hull playing at home will score that one last goal for the fans to take away. I don’t think Hull have the goods to win the match, but I think they’re good for that one goal to kill your clean sheets from Spurs players.
Tips and Player Picks
Outside of the three main games that we should all be focused on, there are a couple of other bits of narrative that could shape how the last round of league play goes. Now I’ve just mentioned him, but Romelu Lukaku might well serve your squad one last time – and he’ll certainly be on my team, though more for Everton fanboy reasons. But Lukaku is still the leading goal scorer in the league, and “Blankaku”, as you’ve started to call him, will undoubtedly want that Golden Boot on his resume as he negotiates his next phase of life with a bigger club. And that’s all horrible for Everton in general, but his motivation is clear as day, so you may as well make use of it one last time for your fantasy squad. Everton are facing Arsenal away in that spot, but Arsenal will have some tired legs given their extreme fixture congestion, and that may work to Everton’s favor. Or maybe it will work only to Lukaku’s favor – but he’s still a great option this week.
Another team to keep an eye on would be Leicester – if only for the simple reason that there’s a pride element in finishing in the top half of the table, especially if you’re the defending champions with the type of year that they’ve just had. Currently (again, before their GW37 matches are done), Leicester are in 11th place on 43 points – and three teams just ahead of them are all gridlocked on 45 points. With a bit of help, and a win, Leicester will be able to look at this season as a success, all things considered. They did lose their beloved coach, but their new coach somehow did the impossible and united the interests of fans and players almost immediately. They had a truly great Champions League run given their limitations, and they could cap that off with the a 9th or 10th place showing in the league. I mean, at the end of the day, that’s not bad for that team. Vardy and Mahrez are the default picks everybody goes to when selecting Leicester, but you could easily go with Marc Albrighton or Wilfred Ndidi on the cheap this round as they’ve been productive lately. Not only does this team have enough options to choose from, but they’re one of the few that still have a clear motivation moving forward.
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[/three_fifth]Christian Benteke might be worth a look this round. Looking at his history, he may be a bit spotty in his performances, but he tends to have a pattern developing nonetheless. Benteke will go through stretches where he doesn’t score at all, but when he does score, he tends to score in back to back weeks. Look at his recent history: scores in GW30 & GW31 and scores in GW33 & GW34; and he even did this earlier in the year in GW6 & GW7 and in GW13 – GW15. And then you’ll see a bunch of 0’s between those dates. But he did score in GW37, so that must mean he’ll score this weekend, right?
Finally, with the Top 4 still being undecided, there’s still going to be a lot of thought given to what Arsenal and Man City are going to do in the final week. I wish I had a crystal ball to tell you what they’ll be playing for this weekend, but today is Monday, and their final games have yet to be played for GW37. I will say this though, City probably have the easier schedule closing out their year with Watford away – and their whole offence has looked quite a bit ‘more free(?)’ since Aguero has been sidelined. I’m not sure if that’s the right word or not, but it seems like the team has been allowed to score from multiple angles these past few weeks, and you can buy into that attack now for much cheaper than you could before.
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[/three_fifth]Whereas De Bruyne and Aguero have cost you double digit prices all year, Gabriel Jesus and Leroy Sane (2 assists in his last game) can now be had for what you’d expect to pay for mid-tier options at lesser clubs. Leroy Sane at 7.7m is probably the deal of the week if you had to make a move at all in that direction, and he’s still hovering around 7% ownership, so his differential points could be enough to put you over the top in a mini-league final.
As for Arsenal, I think that the most Arsenal-y thing that Wenger could do this coming weekend is trot out Olivier Giroud once more. Sure, he’s trying to say all the right things when it comes to Sanchez, but his affinity towards his French striker is steadfast. And as long as Giroud is on the type of form he’s on right now (3 goals over the last two games), you may try to snag a few cheap points that way too. There are worse things you could do with your money (like keeping Gabbiadini in your team for as long as I have).
All told, there are going to be some duds out there this week. You have to know that a certain percentage of players are already planning vacations and setting time aside where they won’t have to train or be beholden to the club’s PR arrangements. And those players are probably represented on your team in some fashion – but they’re laying in the ground like little landmines for now. But if you’re lucky enough, and you take as many players in the good situations above as possible, things might not be so bad.
And that’s it, folks. It’s been a real pleasure writing this article series for you all this year. We’ve had some good times and some bad times (I’m sure you remember me thinking West Ham were going to turn it around any minute now…), but I’ve loved writing it all for you either way. Hopefully, they’ll let me come back next season and do this all over again. Cheers.
Thanks for reading FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
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Need Kane to go Boom Boom today!
3 booms would be nice!! 😉
Hell yeah! We have same situation Mito 😉 I have 28 points to cover in ML and though not as impressive as yours I am 24k overall and still losing
You’re 1 level up but with same situation
Lads! RMT please! Am thinking doing Hazard and Costa to Sanchez and Vardy. Got 2 FTs and 1,2 ITB. Depends on the game tonight of course baring injuries. Maybe even just to go loco Eriksen to Coutinho for a -4 in addition of previous transfers. Got a healthy 75 point lead in my ML so guess I am finally enjoying a stress free last GW!
Just thinking of ditching Chelsea because their attention is to the FA cup and random players will score again me thinks. What do YOU think?
Team is
Cech (Cabagellero)
Vertonghen-Stephens-Alonso (Yoshi-Bertrand)
Eriksen-Hazard-King-Allbrighton (Caroll)
Kane- Costa- Jesus
Hey KFC, how you going? What a lovely relaxed position to be in! I personally wouldn’t be selling Costa – I’m sure he’ll start vs Sunderland as Conte will want to play his Cup final team that didn’t play vs Watford – that’s just my thoughts anyway. We’ll see if he gives any indication at his presser tomorrow.
Bonjour Cookie! Ça va très bien merci et toi? Vive Monaco qui a amplement mérité son titre! Enough french? Ok! You probs rights – this could be a 50/50 call. Either Chelsea play full strength and demolish Sunderland or mix it up and you see the likes of Batshuayiyiyi scoring. But I do not feel confident with 3 Chelsea. Good point lets wait for Conte’s presser.
Are you also in a semi relaxed Mourinho mode or are you hunting down some nemeses?
Je vais bien, merci – oui, c’était génial de voir Monaco gagner la nuit dernière, surtout que je les avais gagnés par plus d’un!
I’d prob sell Hazard, knowing what we know at this stage. I thought it very strange he played 90mins vs Watford unless Conte has already earmarked him for a rest this week.
Re Mourinho – let’s see what happens next week. If they get CL then all will be well, if not, then I won’t be happy as 6th place isn’t good enough. Saying that, the players have missed so many chances in those games they have drawn – can’t blame that on Mourinho, as much as the ABU’s would love to try!
Congrats hope Monaco made you win enough to buy a pint or two next Wednesday! Very true regarding Hazard – he must nearly have felt the feeling of playing with the under 23s vs Watford haha! Due a rest this GW.
Yeah I defo do not blame Mourinho one bit – I have trust in him and he knows what he is doing even if at times people blame him for boring football. He usually does get results at the end of the day – and I like the man a lot and hope he stays for a decade-ish as long as he got passion! Loved how he showed it after the Celta win – finally showing us that passion! Found tickets or the final – only 1200 pounds haha. Think I’m gonna pass and enjoy it from the pub! Btw go talk to a few of the Monaco lads and tell em to join Mourinho next year! 😉
Go talk to the Monaco lads?? Gary Cahill was here on Tuesday…..my colleague walked past him, congratulated him and thanked him for not playing vs Watford (I have him, my colleague hasn’t!!).
Mbappe has already said he doesn’t like our style, not a great start is it! I have to admit I don’t like Mourinho as a man, think eh is rude and generally disrespectful. Happy to like him as a manager, asssuming we get back to challenging for titles.
Haha awesome! One day FPL will become so important that during post match interviews players will apologise for getting a YC or missing a penalty or not playing haha! That Cahill is class – always thought Fergie shoulda went for him when he left Bolton!
Yeah Mbappe needs a different manager to flourish – him and Zidane would do wonders! Oh well let’s see with Mourinho – I think he is the Zlatan type of man. Arrogant and self confident – you like or you hate . I remember not liking Zlatan a few years back – and since his PSG days he grew on me. So please let Mourinho grow on you!
I don’t think Mourinho has ever changed to be honest – he is what he is and he will never change.
End of the day I don’t need to like him, I just want him to lead us back to the top or at least competing at the top.
Fair enough! I might be biased a bit because I dated his daughter for 2 months a few years back.
But as long as he brings happy days back to Old Trafford he will make every one happy eventually. I am already looking forward to this summers transfers – it will be insane in the top 6 PL clubs!!
The dating his daughter part is actually not true. I wish! Haha.
Hahahaha didn’t believe you for a second lol!!!!
Yes the summer should be fun – sadly we have to go through this charade of the top clubs being linked with every available player and even a few who aren’t on the market!
Who do you think will be the big buy for United?
A man’s gotta try! 😉
A lot will depend on if we get CL or not. Regardless I think Griezman would be wonderful to have (him and Pogba already being BFFs will help!). The in between the lines kinda killer player..and he’s French hehe! The rumours about James Rodriguez do not entice me so much. I like those about Keane (even if we have to dish out 25M). Somehow I think we are going to sign some unknown Portuguese league player that only Mourinho and his team know about! So 4 transfers in IMO. What do you think?
The strong rumours appear to be, as you said, Griezmann if we get CL and Keane. I’m relaxed about Keane – he’s gone off, got some proper experience and returns (if he does) a much improved player.
Like you, I’m not sure about James, or Hamez – I’m happy to be wrong but I don’t see him as a Mourinho player.
I’d love us to go and get Alexis…..
Haha I would love Alexis but I got bigger chances in dating Mourinho’s daughter. Just imagine Wenger’s face if he sold Alexis to his best friend ever Mourinho. He would do more than fall over in a train station. Hard to imagine. But crazy things have happened in footie. Regardless it will be very interesting! To quote Evra: “I loooove this game mouhaha”!!
Alexis is perhaps difficult, but I wouldnt say the same about his german friend with strange eyes. Has played before under Mou and was a normal starter for Madrid.
DMC – wow that would also give Wenger a heart attack! I really feel he won’t sell to any direct rival. He learnt his lesson – or has he????
Well, the facts are that if Arsenal fail to qualify for CL and Utd are in they then are not real direct rivals are they? At least not from the players’ perspective. As well as Mou won’t buy what he wants if he fails CL also Wenger won’t buy/keep who he wants in such scneario. I know it’s different not buying or selling but you don’t want your key players around if they are not in the mood. And players are moody…with contract talks still pretty much in the air I wouldnt bet my pounds against it. And, let’s be honest, arsenal have a much better stadium and supporters base then a team. Aside from Alexis and Ozil there are few world class players in there (Ok, also Cech). Sorry to our arsenal contingent here but that’s what it looks like anyway. Big summer ahead though if Utd do qualifiy.
By direct rival I meant this year’s top 6. I would think that next year the top 6 would still be the same but this year’s top 4 might not be the same hence all of them being direct rivals. Adding to the fact that Wenger is not a big fan of Mou (quite an understatement haha) he would sell cheaper to PSG or Bayern instead of United. I would nearly say that there is a big summer ahead for all regardless. It will me a roller coaster round so we better keep our seat belts on! 😉 If Wenger stays he should have no choice: spend big or go!
Why is there hate for Jose? a great man and a great manager
Chris, I’m just saying he doesn’t come across as the nicest bloke in the world – no refelction on his abilities as a manager.
Hello all,
Pickford/Caballero
Stephens/Monreal/Yoshida/Valencia/Davies
Alli/King/Sanchez/Pedro/Zaha
Costa/Gabbi/Kane
1FT and 0.3ITB
Which is best?
A. Alli -> Coutinho
B. Costa -> Jesus
C. Alli + Costa -> Coutinho + Jesus for -4
D. Costa + Gabbi -> Jesus + Giroud for -4
E. Any better option?
kkjay, I’m not sure I’d be selling Costa or Alli. How about Valencia to a Liverpool defender and play 3-5-2?
Interesting, will consider that move.
kkjay Valencia and Gabby are dead weights in your team me thinks.
Valencia + Zaha —> cheap bench fodder + Coutinho
OR
Valencia+Gabbi –> Lovren + Giroud (if funds permit)
Cheers
Just to back up my Sam Vokes punt for this week, Winston Reid has undergone season ending surgery this week.
lol good call! West Ham also finding excuses as to why they were so poor last GW.
I don’t know if I can trust Burnley or Vokes but surely he can’t be worst than Negredo and Gabbi punt
If you had Hazard, Pedro and Costa would you get rid of one this week?
I would
Yeah that’s what I’m thinking. Presume I can do Hazard to KDB well I hope
Guys stuck on a decision here, haven’t posted since some of you guys where on ff cheat years ago, I was 130 points or so behind the leader in my group 2 weeks ago, I’m ahead 20 now, 100 and a 160 with two to play tonight. I’m stuck on who to play and what transfers to do, Any help?
My panel is Caballero, cech, Tuanzebe, Cahill, Davis, Stephans, Yoshida……….Shanchez, Hazard, Fabregas, Erickson, Sane……….Jesus, Giroud,Gabbindini.
I’m thinking hazrd to couthino, no hit.
Hazard to de Bruyne, Sane to King (4 point hit)
Hazard to Coutinho, Sane to King.( 4 point hit)
Hazard to Couthino, [(Gabbiandini to Origi) OR (Sane to Firmino)]
Hazard to de bruyne, sane to couthino, gabindini to origi(bench player)8 point hit
My opponents squad is Courtois, Nordfeldt, ………Stephans,McAuley,Walker,Daniels,Pieters……..Fraser, King, Son, DeBruyne, Herrera,………Jesus, Augero, Vardy….
Any suggestions????
I think you’d be wise to cover off KDB. Maybe King too. I wouldn’t bother with the Gabbi thing, you can just bench him. I don’t think it’s worth handing him another 4 points just for a bench player.
Seems the wise choice, It kind of nulls his chances of a comback if I do that yea…..cheers