FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38
Welcome to FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38. Ladies and gentleman, we’ve arrived at the end of this year’s journey. Some would say that the end has come too soon, whilst others are looking at their pitiful DGW scores for this current round…and they’re thinking the end can’t get here soon enough. I fall somewhere in the middle of those two sentiments; one part of me would love to see football every weekend, and the other part of me is just ready for some cold beer and baseball on a lazy Saturday. What else is a man supposed to do on Saturday? Watch MLS?
Oh yeah, I’ve signed myself up for that, haven’t I?
As for the matter at hand, this being the final gameweek of the FPL season, I feel that I’ve drawn the short straw in trying to craft any kind of article that makes any sense for you all. With just a few exceptions, the league is wrapped up for most teams. And when that happens, the motivations for playing would seemingly all disappear, correct? At least I thought as much until I looked at the results from last year’s final weekend, and it was a scoring bonanza. That last weekend from 15/16 had an average of 3.5 goals per game, and only two teams failed to score. So maybe it isn’t so dire. The league positions might be locked in, but maybe that’s all the incentive the players will need to go out and play a pressure-free game. Or maybe I’ve jinxed it. We’ll see soon enough.
The Tracker in full…
Top 3 Best Bets (Fixtures)
In lieu of anything more inspired on my part, I’m going to point out the obvious – there are really three games on the schedule for the final weekend that can’t be ignored. I can’t tell you now whether the favoured teams will trot out the B squad or not, but on paper these games should be gimmies.
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[/three_fifth]#1) Chelsea (H) v Sunderland – There’s no two ways about this: Sunderland are in last place, already relegated – Chelsea are in first place, already crowned league champs. I guess the real question is this: will Chelsea come out and try to give the fans a great show on their last day of the year? They’ll be given the trophy at home, so it stands to reason they won’t be wanting to drop an easy game against the worst team in the league prior to fixing that prize in their trophy case. Really, of all the games this coming weekend, the circumstances for that game actually line up pretty well for owners of Chelsea players. The threat of being embarrassed prior to all of that ceremony won’t be tolerated, and I’m guessing Chelsea hang at least three on Sunderland just for good measure.
As has been the case with Chelsea all year, they’re a good buy from front to back. Diego Costa already has his 20 goals on the year, but he’s still 4 goals off the pace for the Golden Boot race. That being said, he’ll probably be keen on ensuring that he finishes as one of the top five scorers in the league, if not trying to secure top three for himself. His motivation is obvious in that sense. Eden Hazard, for all the praise we’ve given him this year, hasn’t been that dynamic from a statistical standpoint. He’s in a tie for 9th or 10th in the league for goal scoring, and he’s way off the pace in the leading assister category – so he might be a good omission from your team in favour of securing an extra defender. Or, he’ll realize that the world is watching that final game in anticipation of the trophy ceremony, and he’ll kick it up a notch. Hard to tell with that one, but Costa is probably higher on my list at the moment. And as always, any starter from across the backline of Chelsea is a good buy. Really can’t go wrong there.
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[/three_fifth]#2) Liverpool (H) v Middlesbrough – As of the writing of this article, Liverpool haven’t quite wrapped up their Top 4 spot yet. If Arsenal win their last two, and Man City win their last game, Liverpool could be knocked off their perch if they fail to beat Middlesbrough. How convenient for them then that Middlesbrough are one of the worst teams in the league, and their relegation has been fully deserved with the level of play the showed this year. Middlesbrough’s 27 goals on the year are still worst in the league, and with a rate of 0.73 goals per game, it’s hard to see how Liverpool don’t handle this team with ease and secure that coveted position.
Unless Arsenal somehow drop points to Sunderland later this week, Liverpool will approach this game with an ‘all hands on deck’ mentality. And in that case, you have to stick with what works if you’re buying into this team for the final round. With Firmino still a question mark, and Mane sidelined, Coutinho has to be on the top of your shopping list for this round. But, if you’re in a money crunch, Georginio Wijnaldum might be worth a shout; his assists (8) were bolstered by him nabbing a pair in his last game. In an ordinary week, I wouldn’t be tempted by the Liverpool defence. But against Middlesbrough, everything changes. Liverpool, statistically speaking, are always going to give up a little better than a goal per game on average – but when the opposition can’t score goals? You might do something like slip Dejan Lovren into your formation and see if he can’t nab a surprise goal to go along with his probable clean sheet.
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[/three_fifth]#3) Tottenham (A) vs Hull – On the surface, this game should be no challenge for Tottenham. Based on talent vs talent, the league’s second place team shouldn’t have any worries over the latest relegation victims. But then you have to remember that Tottenham did lose to Newcastle last year in the season finale to the tune of 5-1… The chances of that happening twice, however? Slim to none. Hull will try to make the most of their last game at home in front of the fans, but Spurs really don’t have to work all that hard to show those same fans that their club isn’t Premiership material.
Again, I’m writing this article before the closure of GW37, so the one thing that’s still in play for this week is that fact that Harry Kane still has the ability to close the gap on the Golden Boot award. Kane currently sits on 22 goals with a game in hand, Lukaku has 24 goals. So Kane, above anybody else, deserves inclusion in your team if you choose the Spurs’ options. The rest will sort of pick itself, no? I’m sure if you already have Eriksen or Alli, you’ll probably stick with them as opposed to burning a transfer. But in defence, maybe the savvy move would be to swap those Spurs players out for the finale. Now I may be making this ending to the Hull run in the Premier League a bit more storybook than it actually is, but you get a sense that Hull playing at home will score that one last goal for the fans to take away. I don’t think Hull have the goods to win the match, but I think they’re good for that one goal to kill your clean sheets from Spurs players.
Tips and Player Picks
Outside of the three main games that we should all be focused on, there are a couple of other bits of narrative that could shape how the last round of league play goes. Now I’ve just mentioned him, but Romelu Lukaku might well serve your squad one last time – and he’ll certainly be on my team, though more for Everton fanboy reasons. But Lukaku is still the leading goal scorer in the league, and “Blankaku”, as you’ve started to call him, will undoubtedly want that Golden Boot on his resume as he negotiates his next phase of life with a bigger club. And that’s all horrible for Everton in general, but his motivation is clear as day, so you may as well make use of it one last time for your fantasy squad. Everton are facing Arsenal away in that spot, but Arsenal will have some tired legs given their extreme fixture congestion, and that may work to Everton’s favor. Or maybe it will work only to Lukaku’s favor – but he’s still a great option this week.
Another team to keep an eye on would be Leicester – if only for the simple reason that there’s a pride element in finishing in the top half of the table, especially if you’re the defending champions with the type of year that they’ve just had. Currently (again, before their GW37 matches are done), Leicester are in 11th place on 43 points – and three teams just ahead of them are all gridlocked on 45 points. With a bit of help, and a win, Leicester will be able to look at this season as a success, all things considered. They did lose their beloved coach, but their new coach somehow did the impossible and united the interests of fans and players almost immediately. They had a truly great Champions League run given their limitations, and they could cap that off with the a 9th or 10th place showing in the league. I mean, at the end of the day, that’s not bad for that team. Vardy and Mahrez are the default picks everybody goes to when selecting Leicester, but you could easily go with Marc Albrighton or Wilfred Ndidi on the cheap this round as they’ve been productive lately. Not only does this team have enough options to choose from, but they’re one of the few that still have a clear motivation moving forward.
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[/three_fifth]Christian Benteke might be worth a look this round. Looking at his history, he may be a bit spotty in his performances, but he tends to have a pattern developing nonetheless. Benteke will go through stretches where he doesn’t score at all, but when he does score, he tends to score in back to back weeks. Look at his recent history: scores in GW30 & GW31 and scores in GW33 & GW34; and he even did this earlier in the year in GW6 & GW7 and in GW13 – GW15. And then you’ll see a bunch of 0’s between those dates. But he did score in GW37, so that must mean he’ll score this weekend, right?
Finally, with the Top 4 still being undecided, there’s still going to be a lot of thought given to what Arsenal and Man City are going to do in the final week. I wish I had a crystal ball to tell you what they’ll be playing for this weekend, but today is Monday, and their final games have yet to be played for GW37. I will say this though, City probably have the easier schedule closing out their year with Watford away – and their whole offence has looked quite a bit ‘more free(?)’ since Aguero has been sidelined. I’m not sure if that’s the right word or not, but it seems like the team has been allowed to score from multiple angles these past few weeks, and you can buy into that attack now for much cheaper than you could before.
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[/three_fifth]Whereas De Bruyne and Aguero have cost you double digit prices all year, Gabriel Jesus and Leroy Sane (2 assists in his last game) can now be had for what you’d expect to pay for mid-tier options at lesser clubs. Leroy Sane at 7.7m is probably the deal of the week if you had to make a move at all in that direction, and he’s still hovering around 7% ownership, so his differential points could be enough to put you over the top in a mini-league final.
As for Arsenal, I think that the most Arsenal-y thing that Wenger could do this coming weekend is trot out Olivier Giroud once more. Sure, he’s trying to say all the right things when it comes to Sanchez, but his affinity towards his French striker is steadfast. And as long as Giroud is on the type of form he’s on right now (3 goals over the last two games), you may try to snag a few cheap points that way too. There are worse things you could do with your money (like keeping Gabbiadini in your team for as long as I have).
All told, there are going to be some duds out there this week. You have to know that a certain percentage of players are already planning vacations and setting time aside where they won’t have to train or be beholden to the club’s PR arrangements. And those players are probably represented on your team in some fashion – but they’re laying in the ground like little landmines for now. But if you’re lucky enough, and you take as many players in the good situations above as possible, things might not be so bad.
And that’s it, folks. It’s been a real pleasure writing this article series for you all this year. We’ve had some good times and some bad times (I’m sure you remember me thinking West Ham were going to turn it around any minute now…), but I’ve loved writing it all for you either way. Hopefully, they’ll let me come back next season and do this all over again. Cheers.
Thanks for reading FPL Tips and Fixtures Analysis Gameweek 38. This article was written by Guy Sanchez
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Some great scores on here tonight
How is Sanchez not on 3 bps? I mean, seriously. I think the dude at FPL has Ozil as cappo or something.
Joke isn’t it!!! It’s still yet to change, but he should be miles ahead.
I think Holding deserved the 3
I concur 😉
Evening guys! Some amazing scores on here by the looks of things!
Checked the scores at half time and was worried I should have went Jesus (C) but Sanchez came good!
I’m not quite as high so far on points but still got 6 to play and I’m into the top 2k which i can’t quite believe!
Come on Rosco! Top 1k still possible, maybe.
Cracking rank Rosco. Nice one.
Cheers guys, I’ll be crossing my fingers and toes! I’ll need to use my 2 FTs wisely next week if I’m to have any hope!
So what’s considered a good score in this crazy week? I’m on 139 with Kane, Alli & Davies to go. I think I’m very happy with that, but what’s a par score this week?
That’s pretty damm good I would have thought
Top 1k average is 121. Overall average is 63. That’s so far anyway and included baps.
Anything above 100 based on the scores here no?
Oh wow! Now I’m even happier
I was reading everyone else’s scores wondering whether I’d even gone under par. ML definitely wrapped up, now to concentrate on trying to improve my slightly embarrassing rank!
139 is a cracking score. I’m sure many of the low scorers will be quiet on the boards tonight. Or have broken their phones in anger
Nice one banjo i’m on 130 but after bonus pts i will be on 140 (-4). I would say par score was 100.
Hi Banjo
I am 139 as well.
Kane Alli Vert Yoshida and Stephens to go.
Did you make it to Fratton for the title winning match?
Okay, won my mini-league. Can’t see it going any other way. So I just wanted to thank the website. For sticking me in tough days. :p
Never took a picture of myself with the ff247 shirt, so I made one today. It was cloudy and I was tired but as a true soldier, I stood my ground. :p
And dude, I even did some ”paint” skills with my ff247 logo thingy. HAHAHA! 😉
Ooh, I just noticed I was sitting one a chair while making it. Freaking badass. :p
I really wish you would have found someone with a pet monkey and taken a picture of the monkey wearing your shirt. There’s always next time…
Oooh, that’s actually not a bad idea. However, I don’t like that monkeys are used for these things. Don’t like the idea of a pet monkey. Also not a big fan of people being forced to go on a photo with a monkey. 😉
I’m one big monkey, I guessed it would count.
Nice one Raz, great picture!!
Congrats on winning your ML, I never had any doubts!
Not yet won it. But something crazy has to happen. 😉 Like me taking a 100 point hit. 😉
Somehow i imagined you in your 50’s.
Nope mate. I’m not in my 50’s, I’m from the 50’s. I’m like in my 60’s. 😉
Seriously though? You figured I was that old? Hehe. :p
Haha joking mate. I think it was the one time when you told me you liked “old rock” music or something like that. Well done on your ML. Congratulations.
Ha ha this is awesome Raz! Well bloody done mate!! You’ve always had a great attitude ( well there were a couple of moments a few weeks back where you seemed very down!) through your rough times and it’s all been worth it in the end!
Time to bring back the monkey Grav surely!? Or maybe just use this pic!?
Omg, you don’t like cats Rosco? A dogs person? 😉
I love all animals. Today I rescued a small young bird. Called the animal ambulance.
As for my mood. Like 90 percent of it is played. But sometimes ranting can be therapeutic. You need it out of your system. :p
No I totally agree, I love your rants and I ‘get’ your banter!
I’m definitely a dog person over cats ( got 2 dogs, well a dog and crazy 12 week puppy!) but nothing against cats!
I’m a big animal lover too, I rescued a pigeon last month ( it was being ripped to bits by two seagulls) carried it in my hands a mile but the vets had to put it to sleep – sad times :sad-face:
Ooh the bird today was taken by the ambulance and they took it with them to put it in a special shelter to release it later. At least, that was the story I got. I think a lot of volunteers do that work, here. Dude that came (they were really fast) had like all sorts of tubes in his neck. Haha. :p
And still, he wants to rescue animals. Awesome people.
We don’t have any service like that over in the U.K., I had to ring around to find out what to do, but apparently all vets have a duty of care to wildlife, but the little fella was too badly injured to pull through. People looked at me like I was mad walking through Newcastle city center cradling a baby pigeon!
Lol, I immediately had a billion kids standing around me. Was funny. It’s really not important what other people think though. You did a good thing. Too bad it didn’t work out.
Anyway, I am the same way. Hate to see any living being suffer. In the case of the pigeon, it was put out of his misery. I feared this would have to be done with the little bird. But, he could be saved. But it feels good what I have done. Even though there was a tragic ending, you should feel the same.
Nice picture Raz,
Well done
Tnx mate. How are you doing in your mini-leagues?
I am good. I have won them all. This year I got banned from a pub minileague for winning too much money
To be fair I spent it all on beer
Lol Horse, for real? Got banned? That’s silly. But yeah, I remember you usually having really good rankings.
Aaah, so you are an alcoholic. Good to know. YOu just get foodstamps from me. :p
Yep it’s true Raz.
The pub is in Portsmouth. Thing is I dont live there any more. (I live on the Isle of Wight)
Each fantasy manager puts in £5 a month and the winner each month get £50 or so. Plus there is a kitty at the end of the season.
I have won the league every season but once when I helped a mate win it.
I would often win the monthly winnings too.
So when I visited Portsmouth I would roll to the pub and lierally be given a handful of money from the boss to spend on beer.
Hoping to finish in top 10K as I am quitting fantasy football this season.
What Horse? Why quitting? That’s sad.
I have loved playing fantasy football. It’s been a lot of fun especially the banter.
But it takes up a lot of time.
I have managed to get in the top 1% for the last five seasons so I reckon I ought to try out something new.
Aaaah Horse. I understand. You will be missed though.
Horse, had a really long day. Would like to talk about it one more time with you before you leave. For now, good night. 😉
Horse you’re not leaving FF! Nobody leaves like that. (Unless we say so anyway 😉 ). We’ll send you a t-shirt, that’ll make you stay
Sad to see you go Horse good luck in what ever your nk challenge is
Anyone else have a pic with their FF247 shirt on? I posted one back in October when I was visiting my mom in Florida. Here’s another from the same trip.
Bald guys are so sexy. Today I spoke with one and he happened to be the boyfriend of my sexy new neighbour.
Bald guys taking over the world. :p
Ps. I see some Jack Nicholson in your smile. 😉
Haha, I started shaving it as soon as my hair began thinning around 35 yrs old. Rather have a shaved dome than a comb over!
Dude, looks good on you. And your wife or girlfriend doesn’t need a mirror. She has you. :p
Red, wow, what polish do you normally use? 😉
That looks like a gorgeous beach.
Almost as aesthetic as your overall rank! Well played, mate, brilliant season for you.
I think if you rub him over his head, your wishes will come true. HAHA. :p
Thanks james! That’s Pensacola Beach on the Gulf of Mexico. Cracking season for you, too mate! Well done!
Not me Red, its way to small, its like a bra. Apparently i can’t get a XXXL. :big-lol:
Haha, too funny elle!!
Red – unfortunately not everyone like myself has a FF247 shirt to pose on. Great pic and rank!
Thanks Eagle! Just hang around, every now and then they’ll have a batch and send some out if plead a bit like I did!
EAGLE! That’s easily fixed mate. Just send us your address and size please. I’ve said a few times for people like yourself (regulars) to do so but it’s easily missed.
Red – you’ve reminded me that I never properly thanked the FF247 team for my tshirt!! I blame the two rugrats as absolutely nothing gets done as soon as I walk in the door from work. Picture to follow as soon as I remember…. I’m sure the people are waiting anxiously
Congrats on a fantastic rank mate.
Thanks Colriles, much appreciated. BTW, love your team name, that’s one of the funnier ones I’ve seen.
I don’t have one Red but if I did I would most definitely post up a pic! Maybe I can secure one before my annual USA ‘vacation’ and I’ll rock it in Vegas or La La land!!
Likewise Rosco. Address and size and you’ll have one.
Great idea Rosco! I bring mine anytime I go someplace so I can get a picture with it on. Only problem with that plan is we haven’t traveled much since the baby, ha!
Sweet! I’ll drop you a mail tomorrow mate!
Ha ha that’s fair enough red! We’re cramming our holidays in before beginning that adventure!
Just about fits that Red
Great stuff mate, love that.
Thanks, init! Really appreciate you guys sending it, I wear it all the time.
Ah great pic Red. Init should send one for the little boy. Mine has shrank in the washing machine. At least that’s what I keep saying to myself!!
Haha, thanks DMC! Mine’s fitting a little more snug after the winter, too. Must be the washer!!
…and not a Liverpool shirt in sight, thank the Lord!! Looking good Red!
Haha, thanks Cookie! Don’t worry, I brought plenty of Liverpool gear as well!!
Great photo red!!
I wish I still had my tshirt it went missing when we moved house a few weeks back!! I’m just happy I still have my mug!!
Thanks Mitro! Yeah, seen a few people post pics of their mugs over the years, very cool!
This is not what I’d pictured, Raz, not at all… it’s considerably better! 😉
Solid scoring, by the way, keep on pushing for the top 20k or more.
Funny enough, overall ranking is not that important to me. I just cared about some silly mini-league. Maybe because winning the overall thing is pretty close to impossible. But yeah, a decent score is chill. I remember my first season (I was such a n00b and also not on this site yet) that I was within the top 50k but I took an 16 point hit, last gameweek. 😉 So I moved outside of the top 50k.
Anyway, you reckon Arsenal still has a shot at Champions League? Would be the first time in Wengers reign they would not be in it?
Haha, well, fair enough. I was the same. During my first season, having started late in GW3 if I recall correctly, my team was in a 4-4-2 formation for the whole season…
Can you see Liverpool dropping points at home to Boro, of all teams, next weekend?
I certainly can’t. It’s a shame, as we’ve picked up momentum, just a little too late.
Hopefully it at least continues into the FA Cup final.
I don’t James. And this squad should have been in the title race.
Anyway, off for bed. Good night.
That photo puts the kibosh on me thinking you were my age. :big-lol:
Seriously though Razman great to see you winning your ML, well in lad.
My ML is going down to the wire in gw38, will need to be cagey i fear.
As in put him in one for a week?! Bloody scousers 😉
I don’t know your age mate. But I figure we are not that far apart.
Hmm. Last gameweek I would focus on the teams that still have something to play for, such as Arsenal/Liverpool. That’s what I am doing. Need to read the articles this week because I haven’t seen any games, this gameweek.
Haha, brilliant. Thanks Raz. That’ll be all over twitter soon enough 😉
No it is copy righted for this place. Not Twitter. I don’t do Twitter.
Fair enough. We only have so many to use for when we do the comps so new ones are always welcomed.
It was a joke mate. You can do whatever. I’ll just not be there for the bad jokes.
Raz – seriously man, the gorila shoot you had a few weeks back served you much better!!
Ehehe Just kidding mate.
Great stuff from you there with the site homage !
And congrats on that ML turn around. You should join MLS for some summer fun. Besides, someone should stand up to that orangutan that is Trump!
Raz you sexy beast!!
WOW.. Raz– I could hardly imagine you to be this cool and handsome and young.. FFS… give us your real pic… 😛
What are people’s plans for Hazard then?
He has a great fixture in Sunderland (H) but, after starting both of the DGW matches, may well be benched?
I’m considering switching him to Fabregas and hurling all of the spare cash onto somebody else.
Not sure, though, as my ML rival doesn’t have Hazard… and I need to keep my differing players.
Wait until presser then probably sell for Coutinho
It feels like a shame to lose him but a 1-point cameo seems likely.
I have 2 FTs and Coutinho is very high up the candidate list. Someone with something to play for!
Same situation and same considerations, 2 FTs and Haz benching on my mind!!
Watch him play and destroy the Mackems now!!
Think i’ll do Gabbi/Hazard to Sturridge/7.5 mid, and cappo Studge. Afraid its gung-ho time for me, will still be 2nd in my ML by a few points. Really need Gabbi + Stephens to start and Alli to bag a goal or two in the next 2 nights.
Hmmm, elle, that’s a pretty smart idea.
Coutinho is probably a safer option but Sturridge could really explode at home.
Thinking the same Horse. Although Liverpool could easily let us down or score 3 goals and everyone except Coutinho get points. Thinking a punt on Mahrez and/or Vardy might be on the cards, too. Coutinho will be a popular move this week though so it may be smart to get him in and cover his points.
I’d rather have him in my team and benched than transfer him out and see him start, I’m sure I saw a stat which showed he had the highest number of touches in the opponents box over the last weekend and seems to have been pretty unlucky to have ended the GW with a blank.
I do have other bridges that I want to burn this GW though so Haz if of very little priority to me.
It’s the last GW though: a 10m+ player who is (surely more than) likely to be benched?
It’d be annoying to see him score well but I feel there’s a big reward to be had in daring to sell.
I don’t see him being benched in all honesty with it being the Premier league trophy day at Stamford Bridge, it’s not like he hasn’t got plenty of time to recover with the final game not being until Sunday and I can’t see Conte wanting to get on the bad side of his star player before the cup final.
Hmmm… they’re fair points. This is gonna be tough!
Hopefully the pressers give us a couple of clues.
I could get Sturridge and (c) him if Hazard goes.
James
Barring i have no other problems I will do hazard to coutinho!!