FPL Tips Gameweek 11

Welcome to FPL Tips Gameweek 11.

“So, you think you can Fantasy Football? I’m sure you do and I’m sure you can”*

But this is a different kind of football we’re watching. Trends and statistics still apply but with no public in the stands cheering the home boys or booing the away team (and the ref) they are not as reliable. Strange and unpredictable events have happened as we’ve seen with Leicester beating City 2-5 or Villa beating Liverpool 7-2 and heck Tottenham are top of the league…

We work with what we have nonetheless and GW 11 promises to be a high scoring one in terms of FPL points. Do bear in mind though before making any moves that the Aston Villa vs Newcastle game has been postponed and that there has been a midweek Champions League and a Europa League round still to go with the likes of City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Man Utd, Tottenham, Arsenal and Leicester all in play. As ever, leave it as late as possible, which now is actually Saturday 11am and not Friday night as initially scheduled.

Let’s see which teams have favourable fixtures and which players should we trust a spot in our teams.

Goalkeepers

Edouard Mendy (5.1) has certainly made an impact in the Premier League. He started his Stamford Bridge career in GW 4 with their first clean sheet of the season and since then he has secured an empty net four more times making Chelsea lead the CS charts with 5. We can’t say he’s an outstanding keeper because he only has 8 saves in 7 games but that perhaps is all you need to know about Frank’s defensive system to trust him with a spot in your squad. They don’t concede many shooting chances and if your opponent doesn’t shoot at the goal, he won’t be scoring goals. This trend is consistent with their four clean sheets in five games and only one goal conceded in the Champions League. Suffice to say, Kepa was nowhere near the goal in those games – Mendy was. Clearly, they know what they’re doing defensively. They are facing Leeds in GW 11 and while I appreciate that Bielsa’s men have blanked on only two occasions this season I also expect them to struggle for chances here as per Tottenham Hotspur did last time out. Fixtures are a mixed bag in the next six to be fair but if they can keep Utd and Spurs at bay they surely can do it against the teams they’re facing in that spell.

If Edouard is not your man then I give you Ryan, of Brighton. This may seem a strange pick given their current defensive form as they have only kept clean sheets in GWs 2 and 8 but hear me out. Brighton is the team with the best shots conceded per game ratio with only 7.8 (7.2 if at home). Ryan himself has only 12 saves which is telling of their defensive capabilities. Southampton, on the other hand, have the second worst record for shots per game when playing away and that reduces to 3.4 for shots on target. It all may come down to Ings being or not available for selection but if he’s not looking like playing you could do worse than the Australian shot stopper. Fixtures are not the best ever but they shouldn’t put you off either.

Another one to consider is of course Emiliano Martinez. Now, I tipped him in the GW 4’s correspondent article and while I could agree that he has somewhat flatter to deceive I could also argue that this is about to change very quickly. Villa are facing Newcastle (COVID19 dependent), Burnley, WBA and Crystal Palace in their next 5 games. These are the exact worst teams right now for shots per game (home and away). With 10 game weeks in, this is not a glitch and you can actually confirm that when watching these teams play as they hardly show consistent attacking football. He’s also good for the odd penalty save so if you have him try to hold on to him for the next few. If you don’t, I’d definitely buy him if the Newcastle game goes ahead.

This bit is of course outdated with the game being called off but I decided to keep it here (if the editor allows!) because the reasoning for buying or keeping Martinez goes beyond this GW so perhaps you can take something from it while strategizing for BGW 11. Or if they suddenly decide to reschedule it for next midweek.

Defenders

Chelsea’s defensive form surely grants their defenders a spot in this section and I choose Chilwell (6.1) and James (5.1). Now I’m aware Zouma leads the counting for defenders with 59 points to his name but our friend Ben is on 56 with two less games played. With 2 goals, 2 assists, 5 clean sheets and 6 bonus points he is yet to blank this season and looks very much dangerous every time Chelsea attack down the left flank. James started the season with a bang with 14 points but went on to return 1 and 1 in the next two and thus lost his place in GWs 4 and 5 making roughly 400,000 managers sell him. Little did they know as he got his place back in GW 6 just in time to garnish 4 clean sheets and 5 bps making him look a sure starter for the foreseeable future.

If you want to look elsewhere, I give you Sergio Reguilón (5.6). The 23-year old Spaniard has settled well in England and after a few rotation moves from Mourinho he seems as nailed as nails can be after starting and playing well in their last four. He has two assists to his name and with three clean sheets on the trot he’s bound for some more FPL points with toothless Arsenal coming to visit White Hart Lane.

In the budget bracket you could do worse than that man Tarik Lamptey (4.8). We’ve all watched Brighton play and unlike years passed there’s one thing that they can do which is to keep a consistent game plan for 90´´. It’s typical for low tier teams to keep a low block and delay the opposition first goal for as long as possible and then if the worse happens try to nick a late goal if the result is still there for the taking. That’s not the case with Brighton. Surely that has cost them valuable points already this season but they have the personnel and of course the manager to maintain the game plan, as per the Liverpool game last time out. Our man Lamptey has had a bit of a rollercoaster in these 10 game-weeks having already been subbed off injured twice – including one in the 57th minute after assisting in a game they kept a clean sheet – and red carded once. In terms of actual returns he has three assists – a joint second best in the league for defenders – and one goal to go with the one clean sheet. The good news is that the CS came at home and they are playing at home this game week against a Saints team that struggle on the road for goalscoring opportunities. I wouldn’t be necessarily counting on the CS but attacking returns are likely.

Midfielders

There’s more than one way to skin a cat they say but if you have Jack Grealish you can hardly go wrong.

Sighs… I had a bunch of solid arguments and stats to convince you to buy old Jack (if you don’t have him already) but Steve Bruce, who himself should be very aware of his capabilities, seemingly forged COVID-19 tests and begged the Premier League to postpone Newcastle’s match against the Villains and so we need to find other ways to skin said cat. (Site lawyers: he didn’t).

And, in fact, we are still being spoiled with many options around. But we can’t have them all so it’s a case of picking your poison and stick to your guns.

First up I give you Bruno Fernandes (10.9). His stats are impressive since he arrived in England. That’s for EPL and for FPL. This season he has apparently set a trend that shows him hauling when away from home and somewhat stuttering at Old Trafford. But is that right? Well, the numbers surely back that idea given that he has double digit returns in all of their four away games and only one in their home games. However, the home games were against top opposition in Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal, the former two arguably amongst the best defences in the league. The other two were in the opening game against Palace, a game in which Utd were totally out of sorts, and, more recently, against WBA, a game in which he returned 11 points. He’s obviously on penalty kick duties but he also has 4 goals from open play and 4 assists putting him in 3rd place in the overall rank for FPL points behind Son and Kane but with one less game. We’ll have to wait and see on the home/away conundrum but not in this GW as he is away at West Ham. Captain material for sure so you could do worst then to at least purchase Bruno if you are amongst the 60% of managers that don’t have him already.

Up next I give you Kevin de Bruyne (11.7). Arguments are not really needed here as we all know what he and City are capable of. His numbers are not as rosy as those of Bruno Fernandes as he only has 1 goal and 5 assists to his name. Those came in one less game than Bruno though and he had a 22´´ appearance in another one, so, yeah, just the full 7 games for KDB. The thing is City are now showing the signs that normally precede the trashing of whoever comes to town as per Burnley last time out, a team that had recently tightened themselves up at the back. Our friend Kevin had two very effortless assists and had a ball on the post in the dying minutes of the game. Had that one gone in, he’d probably be on for bonus points too and instead of 10 pts we’d be looking at 20-ish and selling everything that moves to buy him. Now, I’m well aware that if you own people like Salah, Bruno, Son and Kane you may find it tough to bring KDB in without taking hits and/or selling players that are fit and in form and I’m not advocating you do those moves – I for one own all four and I’m not planning to move them on – but, you see, City host Fulham this week and their next home games are against WBA and Newcastle… ignore him at your peril.

If KDB is out of reach you might find comfort in is team mate Mahrez (8.2). Now, we’ve all been there with Pep’s rotation woes which means that this move does not grant you consistent starts and is probably one with a short-term view to take advantage of the player’s form assuming the manager will do just that. A word of caution here is that despite banging 3 against Burnley, Mahrez had only returned once (a 12 points haul to be fair) in all of the previous City’s 8 games, of which he started 6. He’s streaky though so if you do buy him be ready to sell as and when.

A man who is definitely in form is Diogo Jota (6.8). He was bought from Wolves as a substitute for any of the front three positions but he has bundled his way into the first XI with his goals. Five of them in seven appearances in the Premier League and has now started the last 3, scoring 2 which suggests he could retain a starting berth. We need to consider here though that Salah and Mane were out / benched in one each of those three which puts it a bit in the air whether Klopp will actually play all of the fab four or if Jota will in fact revert to his initial intended role, that is, a sub for the super trio of Salah, Firmino, Mane. What we could say in his defence though is that even if he does get relegated to the bench that doesn’t necessarily hamper his output as he works well as a sub against tired legs as he’s proven by scoring in the two cameos he had in GW’s 3 and 7. We don’t want that kind of money invested in someone that starts on the bench of course, but he seems secure for the time being and in form he is.

For the lower brackets I suggest Jota’s former partner in crime Pedro Neto (5.6) or Pascal Grob (5.8). Neto has started all but one game for the Wolves and has three goals and three assists as well as four bonus points. He won’t score every week but he has returns in three of his last four which suggests a man in form up against a somewhat depleted Liverpool defence against whom he actually scored last season at Anfield only for VAR to disallow it. Fixtures are not good though but for his price you can do worse than go with him. Grob, on the other hand, has a good enough set of fixtures, aside from the Leicester one the week after this one. The German has a bit of FPL pedigree and after not being first choice for Potter he has now started the last four returning one goal, two assists and four bonus points in the process.

Forwards

The forward line this year offers reliable sources of points throughout the price spectrum.
Harry Kane (10.9) is the most expensive one and he’s topping the charts for FPL points but not for goals. That particular stat sees Dominic Calvert-Lewin (7.9) leads leads the EPL with ten goals yet his odds have barely moved this season from +600 to +575. Callum Wilson (6.5) offers goals and bonus points as he leads that one with 13, but the value pick is undoubtfully Patrick ‘can’t hit a barn door’ Bamford(6.1).

I won’t speak too much about Kane as his record in the North London Derby (11 games/10 goals, 6/6 in White Hart Lane) is well known and given the way he started this season I’d be surprised if he wasn’t amongst the points this game week. If you have him, hold him.

Jamie Vardy (10.2) is not leading any of the usual statistics but he is in the top 3 for goals and in the top 5 for assists, bonus points and of course total points for forwards, so he’s pretty much in the reckoning despite not scoring the expected 10 goals past Fulham last time out. Last season’s golden boot winner leads one particular stat though and that is the goals and points scored away from home. Pretty much like Bruno Fernandes, Vardy is an away bird this season and has scored 13, 17, 7, 14 and 2 in Leicester’s five games on the road which contrasts with 2, 2, 4, and 5 in the home games he featured. We can waffle all we want about the reasons behind such numbers but that is a conversation for next week as this coming game week Leicester are away at Sheffield United, a team whom are currently conceding 14.8 shots per game when playing at home. Vardy will be on the points here so I wouldn’t advise selling, as much as the Man City lads are appealing.

Speaking of which, enter Gabriel Jesus (9.3) another man that doesn’t top any stats but will undoubtedly be amongst the points this game week. Like KDB he’s facing a Fulham team that despite showing recent signs of improvement should not have enough to stop the Citizens and Jesus’ recent form with 1 goal, 1 assist and 3 bonus points in his last three since he came back from injury. He’s come off the bench on the 71st minute against Porto in the Champions League so fatigue won’t be an issue and while Aguero may be looming I reckon this game comes too soon for the in-mourning Maradona’s son in law Argentine.

Well, it’s been a pleasure writing this piece and I hope it helps your decision making in some way. Thanks for reading and good luck for GW 11.

*The headline confused the hell out of the editor but it’s a reference to / from a show called ‘So you think you can dance’. Think ‘Britain’s Got Talent’, with slightly less talent, if that’s possible.

Thanks for reading FPL Tips Gameweek 11. This article was written by DMC.

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