FPL Tips Gameweek 33 – Differentials

FPL Tips Gameweek 33

Welcome to FPL Tips Gameweek 33 – Differentials

Differentials you say? But aren’t they that for a reason; usually that they aren’t scoring enough points consistently to warrant our consideration? Yeah, sure. And we get that, but sometimes needs must and sometimes a few differentials can emerge late doors who suddenly start to put a run of form together. And sometimes that is simply because their teams are in a desperate situation and need results. Sooooo… a differential who plays a struggling team you say? Well, yeah. Trust us, this can happen. Not only are they getting desperate but some of the teams / players they are playing against are getting ready for the beach (don’t tell them there’s a bit of a travel ban / pandemic occuring, they probably won’t have noticed just yet), or at least the Euros. Others are still fighting at the top and may have emerged lately as candidates, their oppo being of the same mindset though.

Why a focus on differentials though? Two fold really; (1) we come in to GW33 with a number of key players with blanks and so… (2) this may be the opportunity to shake things up a bit and catch up in either rank or in a crucial ML with a couple of well chosen left-field picks.

Before we continue with the main event a quick word on our article schedule. With which these elongated GW’s is playing havoc. Most will be aware of our usual trot; Fixtures, Capos, Tips, H&L Predictions, Site Team. Fixtures is redundant this week as all that is up in the air, we shall bring you one once they finally decide on a proper schedule to talk about. Capos is difficult when one GW ends on a Thursday evening and the next begins on Friday. We have however added a bonus section at the end of this article with our writers picks. The rest will be along in due course.

Rosco – A return to his roots.

When it comes to the close of an FPL season the one thing you want to avoid are the teams and players ‘on the beach’. Very much a metaphorical description, as at present, unless you fancy a trip to Blackpool then there isn’t a whole lot of actual beaches most would want to visit. However, the analogy is a very real thing in football, you see it year in year out; a team safe from the drop zone, but too far away for a European spot – nothing to play for. Newcastle are very much not on the beach. We’re fighting for our lives and if our last two results are anything to go by, we’re going to give it a bloody good go.

Our fixtures are not the best in the immediate, but do fixtures really matter so much this season? Our final two games (Sheffield at home and Fulham at Craven Cottage) could be interesting, especially if we see the return of fans. The guys would have me sell you the merits of Joelinton and scoff whilst I do so, but in all honesty, is it such a bad idea? Well yeah, it is, he’s rubbish bless him. They say God loves a trier, well so do Newcastle fans, and you can’t knock big Joe for effort. Whilst he does have two goals in his last 3, you could just as easily say he has two goals in his last 10.

So, who would I recommend? Well, the obvious one is Allan Saint-Maximin. His return to the side has rejuvenated us. In GW31 we trailed to Burnley 1-0 and didn’t look like scoring, his introduction changed the game; his goal, and assist sealed it, his little dance was glorious to behold. We love him up here. We were expected to lose in GW32, welcoming a Hammers side with genuine top-four aspirations. We didn’t, and Maxi was once more instrumental in our victory, picking up another assist. He’s currently flagged, but if he’s fit, he could be the differential you’re looking for; 2.5% owned and just £5.1 million. Cheap as chips.

So, who else do we have? Well, one name you’ll all be familiar with is of course Callum Wilson. Like Saint-Maximin, Wilson has also just returned from injury. He’s been out for 10 game weeks, so his introduction has thus far been limited to two appearances from the bench and he has not as yet delivered an attacking return. However, before his injury, he was by far our most potent attacker, with an impressive 16 attacking returns (10 goals, 6 assists) in his 20 full matches for the Magpies. He’s probably one you’ll want to wait on given that he’s yet to get a full 90 under his belt, but with those two games mentioned earlier closing out the season, Wilson (£6.5m) could be a canny differential with just 5.7% ownership (of likely dead teams) still holding onto the former Bournemouth man.

If you’re looking for attacking players under £5m then there are slim pickings. So, allow me to draw your attention to Jacob Murphy (£4.9m), Matt Richie (also £4.9m) and Joe Willock (£4.7M). We’ll start with Murphy who has really come of age in recent weeks, culminating in his goal at Turf Moore in GW31. Just 0.1% own him at present, now that’s some differential. Not differential enough? Well how about Matt Ritchie? (0.0% ownership). Ritchie is of course someone most are familiar with. Of the three he’s the most likely to play from the start and in GW32 he reminded us of his attacking prowess with 2 assists in our victory over David Moyes top-four elect. Possibly the most exciting of the trio however is Willock. The Arsenal loanee has managed just 21 minutes in his last 2 games (11 minutes at home to Spurs in GW30 and 10 at home to West Ham at the weekend) but he scored in both games. Before these late substitutions however he started 7 on the bounce, and he’s certainly given Brucey some food for thought as we look to cement our place in next year’s EPL (or whatever is left of it). 0.2% ownership and one to consider as your 5th midfielder, perhaps.

Init – Pereira – Terminator vs Rambo, the sequel

My pick here has had me thinking about two previous FPL ‘regrets’. The first is Aaron Ramsey. You may need a very good memory for this one, as well as a history dating back to my FFCheat days, but Rambo was one who really stuck in my craw. I was hot on him in the pre-season of ’13-14 – I even mentioned him in at least two articles and I was adamant he would have a break out season. Sure enough he started out on fire and didn’t seem like stopping. The only slight glitch in my Nostradamus-esque plan was that… I managed to overlook him as a pick myself! And then, possibly out of stuborness, or more likely stupidity, I kept ignoring him, thinking he would just go away, or stop… he didn’t! How is that relevant to Matheus (£5-.4m, 3.9% ownership)? Well I had similar such hopes about him this pre-season and sure enough he got a goal and 2 assists in 3 GW’s in a lightening quick start to the season. Ghosts of Rambo past were beginning to gather.

Fortunately though I ignored them! Fortunate because he then went on a run from GW4 to GW18 with just one miserable assist in the lot. Granted he was playing for a forlorn and lost team who were quickly becoming the whipping boys of the league.

And then along came Big Sam. It took him a few games to get them going but when he did our hero in question then suddenly reawoke with 4 goals and an assist in 4 GW’s for a total of 39 points; and he blanked one of those (it was a 0-5 to Man City away so we shall fogive him that!).

At which point I began thinking about Arnie, no not that one, the other one: Marko Arnautovic. I made no articles or fanfare about Arnie whilst he was at Stoke but he was just that FPL guy who I always wanted to buy but just never got round to, for whatever reason. And then every week (probably wasn’t, but that’s how it felt) he’d pop up with another goal or assist. And Matheus was suddenly starting to look and feel a lot like that.

Fortunately though I ignored him again! As he then went on another barren spell from GW’s 22-28 with nothing but blanks.

But here we are again with 3 goals and 2 assist in GW’s 30 & 31. It could be argued that he is simply streaky and that ignoring him once more may be the wise move as he will soon be off the boil again. But he also passes the eye-test, he is also on pens, free-kicks and corners. And West Brom seem determined to at least give it a go at staying up. I’m always a big fan of backing desperation over apathy when it comes to competitve football at the end of the season.

To round off our FPL history tour; Rambo has very recently retired from competitive football and now plays in the European Super League for Juventus. Ironically, Arnie also recently retired from competitive football and now plays in the Chinese Super League for Shanghai Port.

Swirly – Coady

If, similar to me, you like to spot a bargain and you’re struggling to find a nicely-priced defender who has a good little run of fixtures, Conor Coady is your man. As the Wolves defence has been more premium-priced than the halcyon days of the £4.4m Doherty or even the brief joy of £4.1m Kilman at the start of this season, the England number 16 is still a respectable £4.9m, coming in £0.1m and £0.4m cheaper than his respective club colleagues, Saiss and Semedo.

Of course what we all want to know is his ownership percentage to qualify for this article – 7.3 per cent! That’s not only prime MattX territory, it’s going to give you some serious in-roads if the player repeats his seven-point collection against Sheffield United any time soon. Looking at the next three fixtures, there is a good chance of doing just that, with Burnley at home, followed by a trip to local rivals West Brom – though we’re all together, rivalries aside right now, right?! – and then back home for Brighton come Gameweek 35.

A closer look into that reveals Sean Dyche’s men have scored just thrice in their last six visits to Molineux, meaning we’re hoping for fewer than 0.5 goals to be scored by them this time too. Coady and co will then have more of a job on their hands, as the Baggies do carry that goal threat that has suddenly appeared. Indeed, it took the Albion nine games from 16 January to 27 February to score eight before they then registered the same amount in the most recent two, with three games in the middle where they didn’t do diddly-squat. As for the Seagulls, their last two visits to Wolverhampton have finished the same as their most recent duo of results in the league: 0-0.

With 10 clean sheets from 32, of which three have been from the last five – and the other two games were, to be fair, Liverpool and the in-form West Ham – along with the fact he has started all but one fixture this campaign, there is a sense of dependability in Coady you don’t get with many other centre backs in FPL.

Matt – Adama Traore

I’ll be honest, I was all set to write about Alexander Lacazette only for him to go and get himself injured. This left me scratching my head as to whom I would select next. Took a little while but I finally remembered a certain team which have been largely ignored this season and for good reason. Wolves have had a torrid time this year, losing Matt Doherty to Spurs and Jonny Otto to injury hurt their attack. Raul Jimenez then had the sickening head injury versus Arsenal which hindered them even more. Anyone would struggle losing players that are so key to how you play.

This has had a massive effect on Wolves being FPL assets this season. Kilman was the go-to for most people but all you have to do is ask Smash to know how much of a nuisance he was to own. Recently however I think Wolves have started to pick up both in FPL and reality. Conor Coady has become a great option as Swirls has discussed, Neto was about to become everyone’s 5th mid but I am here to steer you towards Mr Babyoil himself, Adama Traore.

The speedy Spaniard has hit a nice bit of form as Wolves’ fixtures have changed. Adama has a goal, 2 assists, 2 clean sheets and 1 bonus point in his last 3 games. His next three fixtures look good on paper but could prove a little tricky. Burnley, West Brom and Brighton are all teams fighting to stay up and as we all know relegation threatened sides can prove unpredictable (see West Brom v Chelsea). Still West Brom have conceded the most goals in the league this season (59), Burnley (45) and Brighton (38). This should be good reading for Adama as he likes to run at defences so I can see him doing well against these next three opponents. He is only owned by 5.6% of players so with things tight in ML’s and OR’s a nice differential in form like him is exactly what we need.

Kop – Bowen

What a few days it’s been! Spurs sacking Jose just a matter of days before the League Cup final not being the major talking point of the week, from a footballing point of view, just goes to show how fcked up things are! I could really go off on a rant here about the ESL, UEFA & FIFA but none of you wants to read that. What I will say is that I am slowly but surely falling out of love with the game I once loved. This has unquestionably had a knock on effect on my attitude towards FPL. I’m not enthused by it anymore, no longer do I agonise over my team each day of the week. It’s quite the opposite in fact, I log on about an hour before the deadline, make my transfer, log off and then…

As a result I’m not in a position to put forward such a compelling argument for Bowen as Rosco, Init, Swirly & Matt have done for their picks, but I’ll give it go!

West Ham have probably been the surprise package of the season and with just six games remaining they have every chance of qualifying for the CL. Unsurprisingly, Jesse Lingard has been grabbing the headlines at the Olympic Stadium but he’s long past being a differential. However, Bowen on the other hand features in just 2.9% of teams. His form isn’t too shabby either as he’s picked up three goals and two assists over the last four game-weeks.

Now, given his form, price & ownership levels, it would take a very brave manager to go without Lingard. However, is it worth considering doubling up on the pair? They host Chelsea this weekend which is their toughest remaining game. They play Everton in GW35 but Everton’s form has fallen off a cliff. Their other four games are against teams currently placed 17th, 16th, 19th & 14th and given how the relegation battle is shaping up, none of these teams will have anything to play for by the time they face the Hammers.

That’s my lot. Enjoy the rest of the season.

BONUS CAPO Salah SECTION
The confessional…
This is where we ask our entire writing team to tell us who they think they will pick this week…. And apparently the answer is Salah! In our minds eye this would have been a more helpful insight but we can but ask.. and they answered!

DMC — Salah

Follow @DCoelho

Jamesimmo — Salah

Follow @James777Simpson

Swirly — Salah

Follow @theswirly

Horse — Salah

Follow @harryhorse2

Matt — Salah

Follow @MattyMcveigh

Loud Atlas — Salah

Follow @FantasyFooty247

Smash — Salah

Follow @Chrismartin1984

Kop — Salah

Follow @KenLyons79

Cookie – Salah

Follow @SteveCook9

The Gallant Pioneer — Salah

Follow @MitchellC_FF247

Rosco — Salah

Follow @eugoogooly

Ellefcee — Salah

Floydeth — Salah

Follow @TinkerManFPL

AT — Salah

Follow @Fpl_AT

Init — Iheanacho

Follow @AdamalcockFF247

Mito — Salah

Follow @TheLegendMito21

Thanks for reading FPL Tips Gameweek 33 – Differentials. This article was written by Init, Kop, Matt, Rosco and Swirly.

Follow @FantasyFooty247

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