GKW’s Views on Who’s Gonna Win the FPL

GKW’s Views on Who’s Gonna Win the FPL

These international breaks are getting on my nerves. Is it just me, or are they becoming more frequent – a cunning ploy to acclimatise us slowly but surely to the winter break demanded for the 2022 World Cup, maybe? On the upside, um, where was I going with this one? Well, I suppose the break does at least give us plenty of time to take stock of the FPL standings and see what insights we can glean from them.

The managers
Here we go, then: an in-depth look at the FPL top 10 as of GW30. Let me introduce Simon, Stuart G, Jeff, Dave, Jack M, Setor, AbuBakar, Jack W, Cecilia and Stuart W. First up, a look at their demographics. Judging from their names nine of the ten are blokes, at a guess. Well yeah I know there’s that “girl called Jack” on the telly, who shows us how to cook gourmet meals for 89 pence. Chances are she’s not also a dab hand at FPL, though, so that probably leaves Cecilia as womankind’s sole representative in this elite group. Five of the ten have designated England as their country. Simon is in Singapore (but ex-England, according to his interview in the Independent which is worth checking out online), Dave and Jack M represent Australia, AbuBakar flies the flag for Pakistan and Cecilia represents India. Only three have declared an affinity to a Premiership club: Simon (Chelsea), Dave (Liverpool) and AbuBakar (Man U.).

Moving gently towards matters FPL, Simon has been number one since GW24 and now leads by 20 with 1,923 points in total. Perhaps his concentration in recent weeks has been helped by Singapore’s absence from the ICC World Cup at which all the other abovementioned countries are/were represented. Stuart G lies 2nd on 1,903 points, with the rest all bunched within 20 points of him.

Looking all the way back to the start of the season, AbuBakar and Stuart W are the only two of the top 10 to have strayed outside the top million – and even that was only in the first couple of GWs. All except Simon have taken hits during the season, though none has taken more than seven. Most of these were taken before January: Setor took a couple in GW23 and GW24, while Cecilia took three of her seven during GWs 25-30.

Over the past few GWs most of the ten have been in or around the top five, with Cecilia having maintained a top five spot right the way through from GW9 to GW26 before stumbling; she’s only now made it back into the top 10. But two have broken into the top 10 for the first time this GW: Dave (up to 4th, from 19th last week) and Jack W. (8th, from 13th). Looking back to GW24, nine were already in the top 60 but Dave was still way down in 367th – which means he’s managed to outscore the rest by 40+ points over the past six or seven weeks. That’s no mean feat, as they’ve all been regularly racking up scores in the top 10% with Jeff in the top 20% every GW over that period. Simon and Cecilia showed their human side in the dreaded GW29, though, registering just 23 and 22 points respectively.

Their teams
Looking now at the squads, all ten have opted for a pair of cheap but active goalkeepers: Foster (featuring in 5 of their teams), Krul (also 5), Pantilimon (4), Myhill (3), Guzan (2) and Heaton. All have at least one Southampton defender with Clyne featuring in seven teams and Alderweireld in four. All except Cecilia also have one Chelsea defender, with eight opting for Terry while Dave’s the sole owner of Ivanovic. Amongst the cheaper defenders, the most popular choices are Dawson (featuring in 6 teams), Bellerin (5), Naughton (5), and Wollscheid (4).

Five of the front eight players are exactly the same for all these teams: Eriksen, Hazard, Silva, Aguero and Kane. For their other striker, six have Giroud with three opting for Austin and only Cecilia favouring the now potentially injured Costa. All have an Arsenal midfielder: Sanchez (featuring in 5 teams), Ozil (4) or Cazorla (just Dave). For their other midfielder, the most popular choices are Boyd (4), Moses and Walters (2 each). No real “differentials” there  then – though I’ll be watching closely to see what changes they make in the next couple of GWs. Some of those core players must be getting tired at this point in the season, with Aguero perhaps the first among them to face the chop.

The chances of gaining forty points would now seem too slim for any other team in the world to catch up with Simon’s Atletico Marchid, but for these ten I reckon there’s still everything to play for over the final stretch. Recent injuries and suspensions to popular choices Foster and Dawson could be a factor, with doubts over Ozil, Moses and Bellerin also clouding the prospects of several of the teams – plus of course the risk of further injuries to players on international duty.

Prognosis?
New Zealand in the cricket. As for FPL, my guess is that either Simon or Dave will finish top. Simon has the lead of course, Dave is 30 points back but has great momentum, and both their squads look injury-free. Personally I’ll be rooting for Dave, for the selfish reason that 12 of his players also feature in my Cry Me A Riviere squad. I’m happy to note that the latter now lie in a creditable 315th place – exactly 100 points behind Simon’s. In GW31 CMAR will probably take a chance on captaining Gaby Agbonlahor for Villa’s games against Man U and QPR. Because, hey, you never know.

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Thanks for reading GKW’s Views on Who’s Gonna Win the FPL. This article was written by GKW