To hit, or not to hit, that is the question…
Welcome to To hit, or not to hit, that is the question… : “To hit, or not to hit, that is the question”… Well ok, it isn’t necessarily the question, but it’s certainly one that we get asked on an hourly basis on the FF247 boards. If you follow the text through, the next line actually speaks of ‘suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’. The FPL arena probably wasn’t quite the context that Shakespeare was referring to when he wrote it, but it sure is apt when it comes to the issue of taking hits!
Now the fact that you have even opened this great new magazine probably means that you are an FPL player and so will almost certainly be au fait with what ‘taking a hit’ means, but just in case you aren’t then I am talking about taking a -4 point deduction in order to bring in an additional player in any given game-week, above your allocated free transfer(s). So with the basics out of the way, in this article I am going to attempt to examine whether taking hits is actually worth it, I will take a look at a few scenarios when taking a hit is actually acceptable, and fairly guilt free, and a few where it wouldn’t necessarily be advised. I will take a look at specific examples of ones that have worked and ones that haven’t and get into the psychology behind those decisions. I will also take a look at how my own hits have worked out this season… gulp!
The Past
I’ll be honest, I’ve warmed to the idea of taking hits over the years. Now that’s not to say that I take one every week, that’s certainly not the case at all. But I’ve certainly softened my approach to them somewhat. Whether that is for better or worse is something that we can come onto later! I will admit that I was dead set against them when I began this FPL journey, some 10 years ago. The basis for that stance was mainly that during the season of my best ever FPL finish (422nd) I took the grand total of ONE hit. All season! Now that lead me to believe for some time that not taking hits was the way to go. But with the wisdom of hindsight I do now wonder whether or not I could have climbed even higher toward the summit had I actually taken a few more risks along the way. That’s a question I guess we will never know the answer to now. But it’s certainly one worth examining…
This Season
As I said above I have loosened my approach since and as a bit of a case study I have decided to take a look at how my hits have worked out this season so far. And it’s fair to say I didn’t realise just how loose I had become! I have actually taken 56 point hits so far which is 14 hits or one hit every two weeks on average. It is slightly skewed by last week being a blank game-week but I have a theory and a different approach on those which I will touch on later. I have taken a hit on 10 weeks out of the 28 thus far, so it still feels fairly disciplined, but when I’ve hit I’ve obviously gone in big! Ball rolling and all that…
The following are the weeks in which I have taken a hit and the points gained or lost as a result. The point score is a net figure given the points gained by the players coming in minus the points of the players leaving and ultimately minus the points taken as a hit. It does include points gained by some players as being doubled if I captained them. I debated whether to include those captain scores but I decided that they should be included simply because I couldn’t have gained them if I had not taken the hit –
So what are the main takeaways from that lot then? Well, I’m actually pleasantly surprised at the results for a start. On 70% of the occasions when I have indulged it has resulted in a net gain. Overall it has garnered me an extra 103 points. To relate that directly back to FPL rankings I am currently sat at (don’t laugh, it’s been a hard season!) 111k. I am currently 106 points off the person sat at 5k and 84 points off the one at 500k. A 100 point swing either way in FPL can be a chasm.
Touching on what I said earlier about including the captain points gained I have delved into it and in total from just 4 captains whom I brought in, within those hit decisions, I got 94 points which in itself is quite telling. On 3 of those occasions it proved to be the correct decision as that player was the highest scorer on my team. On the other occasion it cost me 14 points net (GW26 – Kane vs Lukaku). There are an awful lot of what, ifs and maybes in all of that though.
I have included the overall ranking gain or loss just as an indicator but really that’s all it is, as that is obviously dictated to by the team as a whole and cannot be isolated down to just the transfer decisions involving hits.
So that’s my mini analysis on my own hits this season but that’s not to say that is the norm across the board. Introspection and FPL manager’s is not a combination which always goes hand in hand, or indeed a healthy option if you value your sanity, but the above was indeed a cathartic experience and I would encourage you to do the same, but maybe only if you are as obsessive about FPL as I am!
It’s clearly worked for me but I’m certainly not advocating that everybody goes all gung-ho on us! They have to be calculated and measured and have sound reasoning behind them. It appears to be a strategy which I may be utilising more in the future! Then again you could easily argue that better planning ahead would possibly negate some of those hits, and I wouldn’t argue with that for a second, but sometimes situations just present themselves unexpectedly. That’s my excuse anyway, and I’m sticking with it!
‘Acceptable Hits’
I spoke in the introduction of guilt free hits. By this I have two scenarios in mind, both of which are very similar, and GW28 was certainly one of those. In GW28 there were only four games and as such most of us were faced with reduced numbers. Some people planned ahead to the point of coming into it with a full 11 players but in all honesty that felt a bit like cutting your nose off to spite your face both before and after the GW itself as you were limiting yourself to a the majority of your squad coming from just eight teams, and not particularly great ones at that!
If you were like me and took a measured approach you probably had about 6, 7 or 8 players with a game. Now in this scenario I don’t mind the odd ‘guilt free’ hit as I tend to view it more as a -2 than a -4, simply based upon the theory that if they play (60 mins) then we are at least at a starting point of being 2 up on a blank space producing zero. It’s up to them then to produce something to put you in a positive position but it always feels more achievable from the lower starting point.
I’ll use Josh King as my perfect example of this working out in GW28 but also illustrate the other side of it when it doesn’t with… well, take your pick out of Mane or Llorente! King was actually my last hit last week and one I wouldn’t have taken had Matty Phillips not been ruled out late in the day. Leaning on both the -2 theory above plus the ‘calculated risk’ theory I talked of earlier I decided that a slightly out of position cheap midfielder who was on penalties and up against a leaky defence was worth said risk. After 9 minutes in and a missed pen in the bag I wasn’t feeling like it was the best decision ever! Now of course he ended up grabbing an improbable hat-trick and left the hit bank on him alone 14 points to the good.
On the other hand, and this is the risk all round with taking hits, Mane and Llorente both similarly warranted inclusion given their form and the opposition at hand. Mane managed to leave me at -2 on his deal and Llorente -3 on his. Them’s the breaks.
This doesn’t just apply to blank game-weeks though. It could apply to any week really. That’s if you are unlucky enough to find yourself with less than 10 players playing due to injury or suspension. Personally I’d always roll the die on a hit for an 11th, with an open mind to the consequences. The ceiling is always much higher than the floor, as the above examples demonstrate. You just have to hope to find your King and not your Mane.
Double Game-weeks!
Finally I will touch on taking hits for the double game-week fest that we are about to enter. As we stand right now there no less than 22 games which need to be rescheduled. In an ideal world all of these will be announced well in advance and we can plan our transfers accordingly, thus negating the need to even consider any hits. That may or may not happen and if you have been shrewd enough you may also still have tucked away in your back pocket such tools as a wildcard and a bench boost. If the above perfect storm doesn’t either happen or apply to you then you may have to consider taking some hits to capitalise on the doubles.
The danger with doubles is the dreaded ‘R’ word. You are looking at two tasty fixtures and thinking that you can replace a player using the ‘guilt free’ theory,’ knowing’ the incoming one will at least recoup an extra 2 points of your hit, if nothing else. And then boom, Pep leaves Sterling out completely… you get the picture, and may well have recently sworn at it!
On the whole though they are probably small chances worth taking, if the fixtures look right and especially if you feel they will play both games. Ironically this is often more the case when looking at the ‘smaller’ or ‘less fancied’ teams. It’s a glass half full approach but once again, I repeat, the ceiling is always higher, if you chance your arm on the right guys.
Thanks for reading To hit, or not to hit, that is the question…. This article was written by Adam Alcock, FF247
Fixture Tracker
DGW34 IS ON THERE AS CONFIRMED BUT DGW37 IS VERY MUCH PROVISIONAL!
That’s our best guess as to how it will pan out and there is still Southampton vs Arsenal to be rearranged. That looks likely to be in GW35 or 36. The FPL site itself has said that they expect the remaining games to be confirmed on or around the 7th April.
Teams with DGW’s ahead… (with thanks to Rosco)
This article was first featured on a new addition to the FPL scene – the FPL Magazine, who FF247 are proudly partnering with. To view the full magazine and sign up now please go to Fantasy Football Magazine
Need my homework checking again please!
Tracker is updated on the above article. Please feel free to point out any errors or confirm if it looks correct. Confident enough that it is that I’ve tweeted it but I’m sure twitter will also tell us quickly enough if it’s out on something!
Bear in mind the GW37 text just below it as that one is all guesswork but illustrates what will likely happen so felt it was worth jumping the gun on that issue as a good example of what to expect.
Hey, Init. Great article! Prompted me to track back through my own transfer record to see how many hits I’ve taken and their net worth so far. But heck! It’s a lengthy process, so I’ll take it as my international break challenge. I’ll be back…
Just seen the revised tracker. Is the Arsenal v Southampton match missing? It’s in Rosco’s graphic.
Haste la vista, baby
Thanks Qw. Arsenal v Saints is mentioned in the little bit of blurb below it. It’s not on that pic but it is under the tracker on the article itself. It’s the 1 remaining game to be rescheduled basically.
Use this site below to analyse the hits, it shouldn’t take that long, just follow the basic rules I stated in the article, Points gained minus points lost minus hits taken.
http://anewpla.net/fpl/report/
Is Chelsea vs Saints in GW 34 confirmed? Been hearing that Chelsea may have a blank, although I can’t figure out why that would be
Nike_007
The Chelsea v Southampton match is going to be on Tuesday 25th April which although midweek will still be contained within Game-week 34.
It won’t be the weekend of that Game-week as Chelsea play Tottenham in the FA Cup semi final.
Thanks. :ok:
Two superb contributions. You take the guilt out of considered hits, and you make gw37 something which doesn’t require 23 stick’ums. My enduring gratitude.
Cheers Ki.
Init,
That’s brilliant pal, very well done. A superb job reflecting on you personally and at the same time representing FF247, a quality piece of analysis.
I’m going to analyse myself now. Then get on to fantasy stuff :winktongue:
Brilliant stuff Init.
A mate of mine has gained an average profit of +2 points per hit so far, so I told him to make 15 transfers this week. :manic:
Always seeing through the cracks Bry
Good morning,
I’ve worked all night (cough) so I found five minutes to analyse my FPL self ‘a la Init’ ….
The headline is I am 93 points BETTER OFF (average 5.81 points per hit) taking the hits I have this season (based upon their first week in my team).
I have taken fourteen -4 hits and two -8 hits this season which is a total -72.
The ‘best’ hit I’ve taken was GW18 where I sold Mane & Costa (2) for Hazard and Ibrahimovic (40) = +34
The ‘worst’ hit I’ve taken was GW23 where I sold Pogba & Benteke (9) for Pedro & Lukaku (3) = -10
I have used both my WCs (GW4 and GW20), AOA went in GW6 and AOA in GW27 (Aguero). I only have BB remaining.
I am currently ranked 653,878. The highest I’ve ranked this season has been 123,109 and the lowest, 1,051,812
I have been playing for 3.5 years. The first season I begun in February I think hence the low rank.
2012/13
Rank: 2,515,664 (976 points)
2013/14
Rank: 138,915 (2,264 points)
2014/15
Rank: 15,793 (2,173 points)
2015/16
Rank: 200,631(2,108 points)
Something Init said the other day struck a chord when he said that the least you should aim for is the worst you’ve done so my target this season would be to continue my rise of the past few weeks and get inside 200,631.
It’s been an up and down season for me so I’m not banking on it but that’s the goal.
Thanks again Init for inspiring this.
Hits all round! 😉
*TC in GW27 (Aguero).
)
( You know? Along with the rest of the world
Long night shift GP?!
3am start so not the worst this week.
GP,
I’ve always followed that aim of at the very least trying to better my previous worst finish. Unfortunately it doesn’t look I’ll manage it this season!!!
Just makes it an easier aim next season
That’s true and I’m all about an easy life
It’s a perfectly reasonable aim I guess Kop.
Continual gradual improvement and all that.
I’m not sure about improvement GP. It’s a few years now since I achieved my best finish.
Right then (Rolls up sleeves), lets crunch some alternative numbers from the better off campaign. On the week that your taking hits obviously your burning through your FT first so how better off would your team be if you nailed that FT instead of taking that extra transfer?
From the above you’ve gained 93 points on the hit week, however if you’d only taken the one FT (On the higher scorer of the multiple transfers) you’d have taken 147 points, now that’s a difference of 54 points which in itself is a pretty decent GW tally and is the difference between your current OR and the 300K mark.
The meat and balls of it is that you are effectively giving up a GW score which in the long run isn’t sustainable for fantasy as there are only 38 GW’s in the game. You might as well just be starting from GW 2
Now all the above does break up in a couple of places as this is all reliant on you making the best FT decision which isn’t as easy as I’m making sound here and it doesn’t take any financial constraints into consideration at all (I’ve included the Hazard Aguero switch for example which was clearly you shifting value from your mids to your forwards, but hey it pads my stats a little bit more.)
I understand entirely Andy. But as you mention, who gets the bang transfer every week with a free?
Looking back over it there were a couple of times where the hit was taken to remove two non-playing players for one reason or another so it must have made sense at the time. I won’t be taking hits now for the sake of it don’t worry. But, like Init, in the article, I’m more au fait with them now and the shutters aren’t down entirely.
Aye, I’ve taken a few of the non playing hits this season as well, I’m not so sure why I’m so knickers twisted about the hits as I’ve taken 11 so far this season myself
I’ve just had a quick look at the top few in the overall league and it’s true 1st has been reluctant to take hits – only 2 all season.
However it’s surprising that 4th has taken 16 hits and 5th has taken 18.
I’d be confident enough in saying that the vast majority of previous winners have taken very few hits.
this is my second time playing and gave up late on last year but ive noticed vast changes to this year. The main one being the now of early transfers beint.made. this obviously means players valued are going up quicker which has sometimes meant that ive taken a hit to allow me to bring in 2 essential players for that week and beyond. What usually happens is that at the start of the season there are far greater choices to this latter stage i.e most teams have costa and lukaku with a 3rd choice strickers of deeney, gabby, llorente. The hits have not only allowed me to gain additional points bit also given a team value of over 107m and ranking of 29k. My team is shaper up for coming weeks and i dont envisage using as many hits as ive taken barring any injuries……
Init, as promised…
Actually enjoyed looking into this in a geeky kinda way this morning, definitely got the brain ticking but god I want to volley myself in the head looking back at some of the decisions I’ve made!
The results are far less impressive but it’s another case which backs up that hits are a positive over the duration of a season.
Nice table too Milburn!
When I did mine I didn’t realise i could use that stats website so I litterally went through the FPL site week by week player by player to work mine out…it took bloody ages…then seen someone posted about Statistico and I realised they did it all for you! Doh!
I’m in the same boat as you Rosco; did it the long way but it’s much better than this proper work malarkey. Only 7 more hours to go now :party:
Haha yeah I’m having a quiet day so I’m now stewing over my next transfers!
For a hit of course? 😉
Well….. see the thing is….
I really need to use my FT to replace Funes Mori, but defender transfers are so dull! I’m looking at Chelsea and Spurs and thinking a mid would be a great addition! I’m keen to ditch Llorente but once I resolve my defensive issue I’m kind of short on cash and can’t see anyone i could afford!
I am debating ditching Kun and investing those funds or even going 352 but Kun and Lukaku are probably the only 2 explosive forwards not injured so i’m thinking of holding Kun.
All in all I’m not entirely sure what I’m going to do! haha luckily we have this break to ponder!
I did it the hard way as well, but it’s okay. I was kind of bored anyway :-p
Nothing beats poring over your Fantasy team on office time :dance:
What were your findings Nike… did the hits pay off?
I stopped looking at mine when I saw what a disaster my first WC was!!
haha FPL is certainly a love/hate relationship.
what i like about some of the tables that have been attached is that although it doesnt always work (what does) when it does big points are gained. Those of us who take regular hits arent doing so willy nilly they are well thought out. My hits last week (12) didnt quite work put and was 5 points worse off but it allowed me replaced a non playing defender for Valencia, a weak first choice keeper for De Gea, Costa for the injured Kane and Derney for Llorente. Although he didnt do well i still believe he will be a decent 3 choice stricker behing kaku and Costa.
Exactly Saloba, so you’d expect those hit points to be returned numerous times over the coming weeks.
What my table also doesn’t show is the additional points I received from captaining the players brought in.
It’s almost impossible to measure with 100% accuracy over the duration of a season. Whilst I’m not suddenly going to go wild with hits the recent findings have definitely made me less cautious.
Great point regarding captain points. I often take a hit once the guys have posted captain choices. If i dont have one for the top players ill take a hit. Yes i dont gain ground of other have him bit more.importantly i dont llose ground when this player is a prome cappo candidate. The guys in my ML are very reluctant to take hits and i honestly believe they are being far too conservative. Had they i believe as proven by other they would be further ahead.