To hit, or not to hit, that is the question…
Welcome to To hit, or not to hit, that is the question… : “To hit, or not to hit, that is the question”… Well ok, it isn’t necessarily the question, but it’s certainly one that we get asked on an hourly basis on the FF247 boards. If you follow the text through, the next line actually speaks of ‘suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune’. The FPL arena probably wasn’t quite the context that Shakespeare was referring to when he wrote it, but it sure is apt when it comes to the issue of taking hits!
Now the fact that you have even opened this great new magazine probably means that you are an FPL player and so will almost certainly be au fait with what ‘taking a hit’ means, but just in case you aren’t then I am talking about taking a -4 point deduction in order to bring in an additional player in any given game-week, above your allocated free transfer(s). So with the basics out of the way, in this article I am going to attempt to examine whether taking hits is actually worth it, I will take a look at a few scenarios when taking a hit is actually acceptable, and fairly guilt free, and a few where it wouldn’t necessarily be advised. I will take a look at specific examples of ones that have worked and ones that haven’t and get into the psychology behind those decisions. I will also take a look at how my own hits have worked out this season… gulp!
The Past
I’ll be honest, I’ve warmed to the idea of taking hits over the years. Now that’s not to say that I take one every week, that’s certainly not the case at all. But I’ve certainly softened my approach to them somewhat. Whether that is for better or worse is something that we can come onto later! I will admit that I was dead set against them when I began this FPL journey, some 10 years ago. The basis for that stance was mainly that during the season of my best ever FPL finish (422nd) I took the grand total of ONE hit. All season! Now that lead me to believe for some time that not taking hits was the way to go. But with the wisdom of hindsight I do now wonder whether or not I could have climbed even higher toward the summit had I actually taken a few more risks along the way. That’s a question I guess we will never know the answer to now. But it’s certainly one worth examining…
This Season
As I said above I have loosened my approach since and as a bit of a case study I have decided to take a look at how my hits have worked out this season so far. And it’s fair to say I didn’t realise just how loose I had become! I have actually taken 56 point hits so far which is 14 hits or one hit every two weeks on average. It is slightly skewed by last week being a blank game-week but I have a theory and a different approach on those which I will touch on later. I have taken a hit on 10 weeks out of the 28 thus far, so it still feels fairly disciplined, but when I’ve hit I’ve obviously gone in big! Ball rolling and all that…
The following are the weeks in which I have taken a hit and the points gained or lost as a result. The point score is a net figure given the points gained by the players coming in minus the points of the players leaving and ultimately minus the points taken as a hit. It does include points gained by some players as being doubled if I captained them. I debated whether to include those captain scores but I decided that they should be included simply because I couldn’t have gained them if I had not taken the hit –
So what are the main takeaways from that lot then? Well, I’m actually pleasantly surprised at the results for a start. On 70% of the occasions when I have indulged it has resulted in a net gain. Overall it has garnered me an extra 103 points. To relate that directly back to FPL rankings I am currently sat at (don’t laugh, it’s been a hard season!) 111k. I am currently 106 points off the person sat at 5k and 84 points off the one at 500k. A 100 point swing either way in FPL can be a chasm.
Touching on what I said earlier about including the captain points gained I have delved into it and in total from just 4 captains whom I brought in, within those hit decisions, I got 94 points which in itself is quite telling. On 3 of those occasions it proved to be the correct decision as that player was the highest scorer on my team. On the other occasion it cost me 14 points net (GW26 – Kane vs Lukaku). There are an awful lot of what, ifs and maybes in all of that though.
I have included the overall ranking gain or loss just as an indicator but really that’s all it is, as that is obviously dictated to by the team as a whole and cannot be isolated down to just the transfer decisions involving hits.
So that’s my mini analysis on my own hits this season but that’s not to say that is the norm across the board. Introspection and FPL manager’s is not a combination which always goes hand in hand, or indeed a healthy option if you value your sanity, but the above was indeed a cathartic experience and I would encourage you to do the same, but maybe only if you are as obsessive about FPL as I am!
It’s clearly worked for me but I’m certainly not advocating that everybody goes all gung-ho on us! They have to be calculated and measured and have sound reasoning behind them. It appears to be a strategy which I may be utilising more in the future! Then again you could easily argue that better planning ahead would possibly negate some of those hits, and I wouldn’t argue with that for a second, but sometimes situations just present themselves unexpectedly. That’s my excuse anyway, and I’m sticking with it!
‘Acceptable Hits’
I spoke in the introduction of guilt free hits. By this I have two scenarios in mind, both of which are very similar, and GW28 was certainly one of those. In GW28 there were only four games and as such most of us were faced with reduced numbers. Some people planned ahead to the point of coming into it with a full 11 players but in all honesty that felt a bit like cutting your nose off to spite your face both before and after the GW itself as you were limiting yourself to a the majority of your squad coming from just eight teams, and not particularly great ones at that!
If you were like me and took a measured approach you probably had about 6, 7 or 8 players with a game. Now in this scenario I don’t mind the odd ‘guilt free’ hit as I tend to view it more as a -2 than a -4, simply based upon the theory that if they play (60 mins) then we are at least at a starting point of being 2 up on a blank space producing zero. It’s up to them then to produce something to put you in a positive position but it always feels more achievable from the lower starting point.
I’ll use Josh King as my perfect example of this working out in GW28 but also illustrate the other side of it when it doesn’t with… well, take your pick out of Mane or Llorente! King was actually my last hit last week and one I wouldn’t have taken had Matty Phillips not been ruled out late in the day. Leaning on both the -2 theory above plus the ‘calculated risk’ theory I talked of earlier I decided that a slightly out of position cheap midfielder who was on penalties and up against a leaky defence was worth said risk. After 9 minutes in and a missed pen in the bag I wasn’t feeling like it was the best decision ever! Now of course he ended up grabbing an improbable hat-trick and left the hit bank on him alone 14 points to the good.
On the other hand, and this is the risk all round with taking hits, Mane and Llorente both similarly warranted inclusion given their form and the opposition at hand. Mane managed to leave me at -2 on his deal and Llorente -3 on his. Them’s the breaks.
This doesn’t just apply to blank game-weeks though. It could apply to any week really. That’s if you are unlucky enough to find yourself with less than 10 players playing due to injury or suspension. Personally I’d always roll the die on a hit for an 11th, with an open mind to the consequences. The ceiling is always much higher than the floor, as the above examples demonstrate. You just have to hope to find your King and not your Mane.
Double Game-weeks!
Finally I will touch on taking hits for the double game-week fest that we are about to enter. As we stand right now there no less than 22 games which need to be rescheduled. In an ideal world all of these will be announced well in advance and we can plan our transfers accordingly, thus negating the need to even consider any hits. That may or may not happen and if you have been shrewd enough you may also still have tucked away in your back pocket such tools as a wildcard and a bench boost. If the above perfect storm doesn’t either happen or apply to you then you may have to consider taking some hits to capitalise on the doubles.
The danger with doubles is the dreaded ‘R’ word. You are looking at two tasty fixtures and thinking that you can replace a player using the ‘guilt free’ theory,’ knowing’ the incoming one will at least recoup an extra 2 points of your hit, if nothing else. And then boom, Pep leaves Sterling out completely… you get the picture, and may well have recently sworn at it!
On the whole though they are probably small chances worth taking, if the fixtures look right and especially if you feel they will play both games. Ironically this is often more the case when looking at the ‘smaller’ or ‘less fancied’ teams. It’s a glass half full approach but once again, I repeat, the ceiling is always higher, if you chance your arm on the right guys.
Thanks for reading To hit, or not to hit, that is the question…. This article was written by Adam Alcock, FF247
Fixture Tracker
DGW34 IS ON THERE AS CONFIRMED BUT DGW37 IS VERY MUCH PROVISIONAL!
That’s our best guess as to how it will pan out and there is still Southampton vs Arsenal to be rearranged. That looks likely to be in GW35 or 36. The FPL site itself has said that they expect the remaining games to be confirmed on or around the 7th April.
Teams with DGW’s ahead… (with thanks to Rosco)
This article was first featured on a new addition to the FPL scene – the FPL Magazine, who FF247 are proudly partnering with. To view the full magazine and sign up now please go to Fantasy Football Magazine
Anyone own Phil Jones?
No, but he will be remembered
Yep the waste of space.
No, but it certainly improves Bally’s chances of being nailed. DDG, Valencia and him + Ibra seem the go to guys for the doubles atm. Miki can’t be trusted this season, it appears.
Almost similar to GP’s. 94 points better off after a total of 15 hits (-8 thrice, -4 12 times), at an average of around 6.25 gained per hit.
The best hit was GW 14 when I replaced Coutinho and Kun with Gylfi and Captain Kane for a gain of 25 points. Also GW 24 when Captain Lukaku almost singlehandedly beat an eight point hit to gain me 23 points.
The worst was immediately after, in GW 25, when I replaced Cedric and Kane with Alonso and Costa, and lost 8 points.
I’ve used only the first WC and the AOA chip. TC, BB and second WC yet to be used. I was hoping Sanchez would get his easier DGW in 34 so that I could TC him. Now I’ll have to go back to the drawing board.
This is my second season of FPL. Finished around the 482k mark last year. This year I have been having a tumultuous season wherein I gain occasionally in spades, then proceed to lose points in spoons, until another big jump up the ranks. I had started the season with three weeks inside the 50k; currently around the 120k mark, so better than my “worst”. I’m hoping the chips I have held on to help me re-scale those heights.
I have realized that I was fretting too much about having taken too many hits. Some of those were unfortunate, forced upon me by injuries/suspensions, and despite all that things have turned out for the better. Thanks Init for taking a weight off :smiling:
Any tips on when would be the best time to use that TC chip now?
I still think that Sanchez is the guy for a triple (C) pick even though his DGW looks pretty iffy, Ibra in GW 34 could also be an option but he’s also got two tricky away fixtures so it’s not ideal.
I’ve held onto that Triple (C) all season so I’ll more than likely be blowing it on a DGW player rather than using it on a guy who has a better single looking single GW fixture.
Interesting article.
I personnally tend to limit hits, and try to do the math when I want to take one.
But there is one parameter I do not know how to take into account. It is the “next week transfer that never occurs”-thing.
I mean, I often have long-term surgery planned, mostly to sort out my defense/goalies/low-price mid (Kingsley, Ake, Philips for instance in my case). Some of them do not perform or even do not play, I have better bargains in mind, but it never seems to be the priority. There is always a Kane/Ibra/Sanchez to transfer in or out, with 5+ points at stake.
So in these cases, I wonder whether taking a hit, even for a cheap defender, does not make sense. At the horizon of the next week it won’t pay off, but if you take into account the 3-5 GWs I will normally wait until I really do not have a better thing to do as to substitute them, it would be worth it. 1 additionnal point there, a blank, 1 additionnal point there…
Well, if those aren’t actual deadwood, that is, if you do plan to use that position at some point, then yeah, you should consider its potential points when taking a hit.
I wouldn’t do it if said bargain was to be placed on the bench though. In other words, hits for bargains may be viable, if you are short on numbers and intend to play said bargain in a number of weeks.
For example, I have Amat since ever and since ever I have not needed him to play, so I won’t bother with that slot before deploying a WC.
The only situation where I would bother with improving bench fodder is if by any odd chance I had 2 FT but happy with my first XI. In that case, I’d use one of those to change the Amats of this life for some other guy that at least is nailed.
DMC,
true, that does make sense.
I only want to add one very specific mitigation.
I was for a long time in a situation where I had with Ake and Kingsley 2 non-playing defenders. I kept delaying their transfer, and what should happen happened, one of my 3 playing defenders was injured in the last minute, and i could only field 2 defenders and 10 players.
So deadwood can be kept forever as long as you have some margin with regards to one potential last minute injury (or Pep-like surprise non selection!)
Vinci – I agree with that of course. It’s always better to have XV playing.
The sub keeper being the most notable example of that.
I have two pieces of distinct deadwood right now (and since almost ever) in Diomandé and Amat but I always have one half decent defender as 1st sub so while I agree with you on all that I would still argue that you don’t really need to take a hit to get a playing sub if you at least have 1 nailed on player as your 1st sub.
In other words, if you have 4 playing defenders and always play in a system with 3 in the XI (3-4-3 / 3-5-2) that gives you a plan B for one unexpectedly missing player.
Ideally, we’d have more.
It’s very difficult if not impossible though to assess the accountability of a given hit taken to bring in someone you bench.
Even if the bloke garners let’s say 10 pts three weeks after being brought in because someone missed out on that gw, you still wouldn’t be able to say that it did or didn’t paid off for you had other moves in between that probably effected the one missing out, if that makes sense.
The only way for this to be assessed is if it all happens very subsequently.
For example: Your team has no viable sub and on a given gw you get Sanchez + viable bench fodder (I mean someone you will not play on a normally basis but that is nailed in its team – say Wanyama) for a -4. Said bench player is then called upon the next week because Sanchez got stuck in Chile or arrested in Wenger’s basement and gives you 10 pts. and a profit of +6 (given that you’d have Sanchez on a fat zero and had no other viable bench player).
Only is such scenario I’d say you could assess the accountability of such hit. But that is so rare that we really are best not taking hits to cover unexpected absentees!
Uff, I’ll now dedicate a few minutes to work…
I agree that it is very difficult to properly (scientifically?) evaluate whether a hit makes sense.
At least this experience with Aké-Kingsley convinced me that hits need to be considered not only short-term. Of course, it is obvious then if your new players score big time that the hit paid off.
But hits are also a way to reshape your team in fast motion. This can bear fruits in a longer term.
Other exemple. You go for a hit to get, say, Alli and Costa for GW i, and both perform so-so. The next week, however, both fire big time.
So you could think that you have lost a hit, and it would have been preferable to wait one more week to accomodate them for free.
Here you lost 4 points. But you also won an extra transfer, that you have done at GW i+1 after your hit, and that would not have been possible without it. And if your transfer performed well, then the original hit paid off!
My conclusion.
1st reason to take hits (normal GW, no blanks or DGW): you think it will pay off immediately ;
2nd reason to take hits: you have too many substitution you need to do. Taking hits will lead you to an optimal team sooner, and that can pay off.
The 2nd reason is more dangerous, as you could take 15 hits each week if you strongly believe in it! But that does not mean that it is never relevant.
All good points Vinci. Then there’s Mitros rational: hits always pay off, for the rush!
To Hit or not to Hit great write up Init if only I had the time mate, I’m not averse to taking hits in fact I quite like to especially in the early hrs on a Sat or Sun morning but this season I have taken 18 hits now I don’t know if it has help or not , all I can say is this is the most have taken in a season so far & its my worst rank in my 10 plus yrs I have been played FF thanks again for taking the time to put this together.
just scribbled down some numbers and ive taken hits in 19 game weeks. In 7 i was worse of and 12 better of. I lost 41 points in the weeks where it never worked out but gained 131 points when it did giving me cummulative score of 90 additional points.
Now that I am thinking about it…
The article is very interesting, no question, including the retrospective work of valuing the points won/lost. However I now see a limit to the restrospecctive analysis that you performed.
If I am correct, your figure of merit is: points scored by new players – points scored by former players -4x(nb of hits)
But that comes down to comparing your 2 transfers including the hit versus… no transfer at all! Isn’t it? And the correct comparison would have been “transfers with hit” with “one single transfer (FT)”.
That being said, there is no way of knowing which of the two transfers you would have done. Most of the time, probably, only one would have been possible (most expensive former player for less expensive new one), and that would have been the less interesting…
Still, that mitigates a bit the strength of the “net gain = 103 points”. It could be that the net gain would have been half of this (because your would have done 1 instead of 2 transfers), a bit above half of this (2/3? Because with your FT you wouldn’t have afforded the best players most of the time?) or a bit under half of this (1/3? Because with your FT you would have chosen the best player, since you are an excellent FPL manager?)
Still, I do not doubt that the balance is positive!
fair points made but what u need to consider is when a hit is taken a minimum of 2 transfer are made that g.w. Therefore the FT is used to release funds and the hits are ultimately taken to bring in the premium player.
We agree.
But the alternative to your taking hits to get that premium player, would be a regular FT for a less prominent player – but generally still worth it!
Not a week with 0 transfers.
But I get your point. My suggestion that we could get a closer estimate of the gain by multiplying by 1/3, 1/2 or 2/3 is very weak, as you would probably go with your FT for a completely different transfer (you wouldn’t focus on either one of the two players involed in the hits)
Yes but the FT is being sacrificed to bring in the hit players in most instances.