Kops Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 1

Kops Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 1

Welcome back! We’ve had a great summer of sport. The English U21s did what English teams do best, fail. Andy Murray remains Scottish following his semi-final defeat at Wimbledon. We had a Monday finish to The Open. Chris Froome won the Tour de France and in doing so had urine thrown over him. The Poms & the Convicts are in the midst of an epic battle for The Ashes. And a Norwegian living in the US has a chance of overall glory in Fantasy T20 (that’s cricket for the uneducated amongst you!). As much fun as that’s all been we all eagerly await the return of FPL and the wait is nearly over. At this stage of the season it is easy get caught up in the hype surrounding certain players & potential formations, but just remember this, trust your instincts and try not to take too many risks.
Much like a puppy is not just for Christmas, these tips are not just for one gameweek! While they’re not based on the entire season as none of us pick a team for the season they are typically based on the next six to eight fixtures. Hopefully you’ll find them of some help.

Goalkeepers

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[/three_fourth]In previous seasons many fantasy managers felt as though they were priced out of the market for premium keepers as they were reluctant to shell out £6.0m on any of them, but with these keepers now starting at £5.5m they are very much within range. Of course I’m referring to Cech, Courtois, de Gea and Hart. Of the four I feel that the best choices are Chelsea’s Thibaut Courtois and Arsenal’s Petr Cech. Personally I feel as though there’s still too much uncertainty surrounding de Gea’s future and while Hart kept 14 clean sheets last season we just don’t know how City will perform defensively this season, therefore Courtois & Cech are the safe choices and at this stage of the season we feel a safety first policy is for the best! Chelsea had the best defensive record last season conceding just 33 goals and keeping 17 clean sheets in the process, so when it comes to the art of defending no one does it better than Jose & co. You could argue that Chelsea have the toughest start of all the teams with title aspirations but we wouldn’t let that put you off as their defensive record against the top teams is second to none. The fact that Courtois is now the cheapest route into the Chelsea reargaurd makes him an even more attractive proposition than last season. Over recent seasons the Arsenal defence has come in for much criticism, last season however they got their act together and finished the season with the 3rd best defence in the league. The addition of Petr Cech should in theory significantly improve an already solid defence and while he is not the keeper he once was he will certainly pick up his fair share of clean sheets over the season. The Gunners have a number of tricky fixtures over the first two months of the season but they approach the season in confident mood and therefore I expect Cech to get off to a solid start.

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So that’s the premium keepers dealt with, what about the mid-priced keepers? With the premium keepers all available at a starting price of £5.5m I do wonder what value is to be found in those priced at £5.0m! With the £5.5m keepers you can happily stick a £4.0m keeper on the bench and forget about him, it would take a brave man to do that with any of the £5.0m keepers. Of all the keepers in the £5.0m bracket I feel as though two are worth some serious consideration and they are Sunderland’s Costel Pantilimon and Southampton’s Maarten Stekelenburg. Pantilimon finished last season as the 6th highest scoring keeper, only two keepers made more saves, while only one picked up more bonus points, and all of this despite the fact he only made 28 appearances. Sunderland conceded 53 goals last season but with Dick Advocat in charge from the beginning of the season I expect that total to be quite a bit lower this time around. The Black Cats have some decent early season fixtures, they only play one of last season’s top 4 in their first 14 games so the Romanian should be a good bet for some early season points. After helping Holland to reach the 2010 World Cup final many expected Stekelenburg to kick on and emulate the achievements of Edwin van der Saar. Unfortunately for him, that hasn’t been the case. His career has at the very least stalled although many will say it’s been in reverse since joining Roma back in August 2011. He arrives at Southampton following an unsuccessful stint at Fulham via an equally unsuccessful loan spell at Monaco. By now you’re probably wondering what he’s doing in this article! The main reason is because Southampton had the 2nd best defence in the league last season and they’ve got a relatively easy start this season. They may have lost a number of their defensive stalwarts but Koeman has already proven he has an eye for talent and he’s more than capable of getting a defence organised and therefore I feel that the Dutchman will do well between the sticks this season.

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And so we come to those keepers priced at £4.5m and as always there’s quite a few to choose from. Three who we feel warrant some consideration are Leicester’s Kasper Schmeichel, Bournemouth’s Artur Boruc and Norwich’s John Ruddy. Leicester & Schmeichel had a great end to last season and this saw the Dane finish with six clean sheets. It’s this end of season form which leads us to tip Schmeichel and while there’s a new gaffer at the helm it’s still the same defenders in front of him. With Ranieri known as the tinkerman there’s always the chance he’ll rotate some of his defenders and therefore Schmeichel is the safe bet. Bournemouth were promoted to the Premier League with the 2nd best defence in the Championship. Of course it’s a massive step up in quality but at least it appears as though they’ve got a solid base. In Boruc, they have a keeper with 49 PL appearances to his name from his time at Southampton and during this time he turned in a number of impressive performances. In terms of fixtures the Cherries have a great start to the season and they will be hoping to get off to a good start. Unlike Bournemouth, Norwich have been here before. In fact they were here as recently as the 2013-14 season, so the majority of their squad has top flight experience and in Ruddy they have a keeper with international experience. Alex Neil will have his Norwich side organised & well prepared and as a result Ruddy could prove to be a shrewd purchase.

Finally, for those of you who plan on using an early wildcard then you may want to load up on Crystal Palace keepers. With Julian Speroni set to miss the start of the season with a hand injury, Wayne Hennessy and Alex McCarthy will battle it for the gloves. The good news is that both are priced at £4.0m!

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Defenders

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[/three_fourth]At this stage of the season we must base many of our decisions on the past and therefore we suspect that the Chelsea defence will prove quite popular ahead of GW1. For now we see it as a decision between Branislav Ivanovic and Cesar Azpilicueta. At £7.0m Ivan is £1.0m more expensive than Azpi and that might be enough to sway many of you towards the Spaniard, but you get what you pay for and it’s worth remembering that the Serb picked up four goals & five assists last season while Azpi weighed in with just three assists, this led to Ivan finishing the season as the highest scoring defender on 179pts while Azpi finished on just 132pts. By now you’re probably saying to yourself that despite Ivan being £1.0m more expensive he still represents better value than Azpi but it’s worth remembering that Ivan was an ever present last season while Azpi played nearly 1,000mins less thanks to the presence of Filipe Luis, but with Luis now back at Atletico I suspect we’ll see a lot more of Azpi this season. To be honest, if money were not an issue the obvious choice is certainly Ivanovic, but money is an issue, particularly at this time of the season and therefore Azpi must be viewed as the sensible choice.

Staying with the defensive heavy hitters and our next tip is Laurent Koscielny. You wouldn’t consider the French international to be amongst the top echelon of centre backs in world football, but he is an integral member of the current Arsenal side and is undoubtedly the leader of the defence. Arsenal kept 13 clean sheets last season with Koscielny present for 11 of these and this despite starting just 27 games, so his importance to the team is clearly evident. In terms of style, he’s quick thinking, reads the game extremely well and is comfortable in possession, and thanks to these attributes I suspect he’ll hoover up the bonus points this season, especially with the changes to the BPS appearing to favour centre halves. It’s also worth noting that the Frenchman is always a good bet for a couple of goals over the course of the season, last season he found the back of the net on three occasions.

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So that’s the premium defenders out of the way now let’s take a look at those in the mid-price bracket and first up is Southampton new boy Cedric Soares. The Portuguese international has hit the ground running and while pre-season is not always a good indication as to how new signings will fit in, it must be remembered that the Saints have already had a competitive game. This game was against Vitesse Arnhem in the 3rd qualifying round for the Europa League, a game in which Cedric caught the eye with a number of raids down the right and he finished the game with two assists. It’s still early doors but it would appear as though Cedric will pick up a number of assists over the course of the season and if Southampton prove to be as resolute as last season he could prove to be a bargain at £5.0m.

Next up is another new addition to the Premier League and it’s United’s new Italian right back Matteo Darmian. Right back was a problem position for LvG last season and he moved quickly earlier in the summer to snap up Darmian. The Italian arrives in Manchester with a growing reputation. In 2013/14 he was named in the Serie A team of the year, while last season he played 46 times for Torino across all competitions. On the national front he has 13 international caps. Historically Italian defenders have been known for their no nonsense approach to the art of defending and on first evidence Darmian will be no different. United had an indifferent season at the back last season but with Schneiderlin & Schweinsteiger added to the midfield I expect them to improve on last season’s 11 clean sheets and at £5.5m Darmian currently appears to offer the best value from their defence.

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[/three_fourth]Aaron Cresswell enjoyed a rather impressive debut season last time out with West Ham. He started every league game for the club, scoring twice as well as picking up four assists, all of which saw him named Hammer of the Year and player’s player of the year. In June he was rewarded with a new five year contract. If pre-season games are anything to go by the Hammers midfield is unlikely to offer much width over the coming season and if this is the case Cresswell will be expected to press forward at every opportunity. Despite having the league’s 7th best defence last season West Ham managed just nine clean sheets. If they can keep the silly mistakes to a minimum this season I would expect them to improve on the nine clean sheets and if this is the case Cresswell could prove to be one of the season’s highest scoring defenders.

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Finally we come to those defenders we pick in hope rather than expectancy! Yes, the budget defenders. As with every season there’s plenty to choose from, the problem is identifying and choosing the right ones. We assume everyone will have at least two from this bracket, while the majority will have three or four and the daring amongst us will have five! Sunderland have some ideal early season fixtures, unfortunately as we head towards GW1 the only Black Cats defender who would appear to be nailed on is PvA and he’s £5.0m. When I originally started to put a list of potential players together I had included John O’Shea but there now appears to be a growing feeling amongst Sunderland fans that the Irish international may not start the season and at the very least he is in a battle with Younes Kaboul for his place. So therefore my tip from the Sunderland defence is Sebastian Coates who turned in a number of impressive displays at the back end of last season.

Historically the promoted teams offer up some cheap defenders and this season is no different, with the best options appearing to come from both Norwich & Bournemouth. The best option is Martin Olsson who has plenty of top flight experience and registered five assists in the Championship last season. Unfortunately the Swedish international is set to miss the start of the season with a shoulder injury, so in the short-term our tip would be Sebastian Bassong. Down on the south east coast the best defensive options available at the moment appear to be their full backs, Simon Francis and Tyrone Mings. Francis registered a goal & six assists as Bournemouth won the Championship and has a great understanding down the right with Matt Ritchie. Record signing Mings picked up a goal & five assists last term with Ipswich and much is expected of him this season. Both Norwich & Bournemouth have some decent early season fixtures and both could very well record a number of clean sheets.

Others worth a mention are Leicester’s Robert Huth, Villa’s Micah Richards and Joe Gomez of Liverpool. Wes Morgan insists he’s fit & ready for GW1 but the Jamaican international has had just one week off this summer and therefore Huth is possibly a safer option. Richards arrives back in the UK with plenty to prove. Once seen as one of the great hopes of English football his City career faded out and his time in Italy wasn’t a success. It’s difficult to know what we should expect from Villa this season but on paper they have some easy early season fixtures. Earlier in the summer when previewing a number of Liverpool’s new signings I chose not to include Gomez as I didn’t expect him to figure this season. It now appears I may have been somewhat hasty with my assumption. The summer signing has turned in a number of impressive performances in pre-season and looks set to challenge Alberto Moreno for the left back spot. If Liverpool can rediscover the art of defending Gomez could yet prove a popular pick.

As of now it would appear as though there is no £4.0m defender who is likely to play regularly. Southampton’s Matt Targett is expected to start the season but with Ryan Bertrand set to return sooner than expected Targett might only play a game or two. West Ham’s Reece Oxford has featured heavily in pre-season, but is only 16 and may not see much game time once the PL kicks off. Villa’s Nathan Baker and Newcastle’s Steven Taylor have both featured in pre-season but are unlikely to feature for their respective teams.

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Midfielders

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[/three_fourth]And so we come to the midfield minefield! We’ll start with last season’s player of the year Eden Hazard. He finished last season with 14 goals & 10 assists, while he was a bonus point magnet accumulating 42 baps over the course of the season. This saw him finish the season with an impressive 233pts which was 17 more than the next best. In previous seasons he was oft accused of being inconsistent, but he put that behind him last season as he became Chelsea’s talisman. In fact he became so consistent he was perfect captaincy material as more often than not he delivered. Since joining Chelsea his returns his FPL returns have improved year on year and if Chelsea are to retain their crown they will once again rely heavily on the Belgian, meaning another increase in returns is a possibility. At £11.5m he is the 2nd most expensive player in FPL, but the question is can you afford to be without him? With less than three days to kick off he features in a staggering 56.5% of teams! If he gets off to a good start and you don’t already have him it could take some work to get him into your side. Should you be unwilling to stump up the cash you might want to consider his midfield colleague Cesc Fabregas. Over the course of the season Fabregas is unlikely to match the returns of Hazard but historically the Spaniard enjoys a great start to the season and tails off in the 2nd half. If you fancy this to be the case again this season and are brave enough to go without the Belgian the £2.5m you save could make significant improvements elsewhere in your squad.

The Arsenal midfield has become a microcosm of the overall midfield minefield. Alexis Sanchez returned late to pre-season training thanks to his involvement with Chile at the Copa America and as such is not yet a contender for a place in our team. In his absence you could make an argument for picking any one of Theo Walcott, Mesut Ozil, Santi Cazorla or Aaron Ramsey, some might even double up. Theo Walcott didn’t impress against Chelsea in the Charity Shield (old habits), but he won’t be up against a defence of Chelsea’s quality every week and while fantasy managers get excited by the prospect of him playing out of position, he is not a striker and is much better suited to playing out wide from where he can cut in and attack the goal. He’s the most expensive of the four I’ve mentioned but he is also potentially the most explosive and if he can stay fit he is more than capable of reaching double figures for goals and assists. Aaron Ramsey enjoyed a breakout season in 2013/14 finishing the season with 10 goals & nine assists and as a result much was expected of him last season. Unfortunately injury curtailed his season and he managed just 23 starts, he did however enjoy a strong finish to the season and he will hope to have carried that form through to this season. He has the ability to make those late runs into the box meaning he often arrives unmarked and it’s because of this that I expect his goal tally to be in double figures for the season.

Now we realise that pre-season form is something you shouldn’t get carried away with, but surely you’d rather see a player have a good pre-season rather than a poor one! One player who has had an impressive pre-season albeit against limited opposition is Raheem Sterling. Having signed for City for the princely sum of £49m it was important that he get off to a good start so that the pressure on him to perform did not mount, and with three goals and a number of assists to his credit he has done just that. Obviously he now needs to do it on the big stage and we expect him to do just that. In David Silva, he is playing beside one of the league’s most creative players, someone who is capable of playing the perfect pass behind the defence for young Raheem to run onto. Playing with the likes of Silva & Aguero the 19 year old should be able to find plenty of space to play in and with his pace this could be devastating. We’ll be quite surprised should he not comfortably surpass last season’s total of 158pts. Should you not agree with us and you feel that Sterling needs time to settle into his new surroundings you might want to consider the aforementioned David Silva. The Spaniard had his best season to date in 2014/15 and picked up 12 goals & 12 assists. The arrival of Sterling might see his goal count decrease but he will surely pick up a greater number of assists. Should you pick Silva make sure you stick with him. He will go through quiet patches where his returns will be poor but as we’ve seen in the past he will always come through such a patch.

One final premium midfielder who warrants a mention is Sadio Mane. The Senegalese midfielder arrived at Southampton having averaged a goal every two games for Austrian side Red Bull Salzburg. The goals have continued since arrival on the south coast and he finished last season with 11 goals as well as four assists. The Saints have what can only be described as an easy start to the season and we fully expect Mane to be amongst the goals early on.

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[/three_fourth]Moving onto the mid-priced midfielders and as with the premium midfielders there are plenty to choose from! Those who we would like to highlight this week are Liverpool’s James Milner, West Ham’s Dimitri Payet, Sunderland’s Jermain Lens and Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie. The Liverpool midfield is quite like the Arsenal midfield in that it offers a number of options, clearly the options are not as good as their Arsenal counterparts but they are options nonetheless. We’ve gone with Milner as we feel that at £7.0m he offers excellent value. Since his move to City he has struggled for game time and was regularly played out of position, despite this he still managed five goals and eight assists last season. In pre-season Milner has been at the heart of the majority of Liverpool’s attacks and if he can maintain this form we suspect his popularity will soar. Payet has arrived in the East End of London having established a reputation as one of France’s top attacking midfielders. In his last four seasons he has scored 33 league goals and picked up 52 assists. The Hammers opening fixtures are something of a mixed bag, they have a number of easy home fixtures coupled with a number of difficult ones away from Upton Park. If you can find someone to rotate with the Frenchman over the opening seven or eight fixtures you could very well be onto a winner. Assuming Sunderland adopt a 4-3-3 for the season ahead Lens could prove to be a bargain at £6.5m as the Dutchman can play on the left or right of the front three. Having scored 34 goals in 96 games for PSV and 10 in 49 games for Dynamo Kiev he clearly knows where the goal is. £6.0m might seem like a lot to pay for a midfielder from one of the promoted teams, but when you consider Ritchie claimed 15 goals & 17 assists last season as The Cherries won the Championship, he may turn out to be fantasy gold. Bournemouth couldn’t have picked an easier set of fixtures to start their debut top flight season and if they can take advantage of these fixtures and get off to a good start then Ritchie will surely be central to this.

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And so we come to the budget midfielders. As of now it is proving difficult to identify this seasons George Boyd, hopefully one will emerge but for now it’s a matter of taking a punt and hoping for the best. The key at this stage is to pick someone who will play every week. The popular choice at present is Southampton’s Victor Wanyama and that is understandable as he weighed in with three goals & an assist last season and is available at just £4.5m. Should you be able to stretch to £5.0m for your budget midfielder you might consider Villa’s Scott Sinclair or Crystal Palace’s Mile Jedinak. Let’s just ignore the three seasons Sinclair spent at City! If he can recapture the form the showed for Swansea back in 2011-12 when he claimed eight goals & five assists he could prove to an interesting pick. Obviously he’s not going to score a hat-trick every week as he did in a recent friendly but Villa have a decent start to the season so he’s certainly one to keep an eye on. Palace have a tough start to the season but assuming Jedinak is still on set pieces he could very well improve on last season’s five goals and three assists. Finally, for those of you who are in the mood for an early season gamble you could consider Liverpool’s Jordan Ibe. The youngster has been impressive during pre-season and has certainly made himself an option for Brendan Rodgers. With new signing Firmino likely to be eased into life at Anfield there is every possibility that Ibe could start as part of a front three against Stoke. His pace, power & directness means he offers something that the majority of his teammates do not, so he could very well see plenty of action this season.

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Forwards

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[/three_fourth]Last season only two of the top 10 scorers in FPL were forwards which might suggest that our monies are better invested elsewhere. However that is a discussion for another day and anyway, it would take a brave manager not to include a couple of the following. I think most of us would agree that Wayne Rooney didn’t enjoy the best of seasons in 2014-15, although this can largely be attributed to the fact for large chunks of the season he was played in midfield! Rooney is an extremely talented footballer and he is quite capable of playing in midfield but his best position is unquestionably up front. Despite being played out of position he still managed to register 12 goals & five assists. With Schweinsteiger & Schneiderlin having arrived to bolster the midfield there would now appear no reason for Rooney to be deployed in midfield this season, although the crazy Dutchman might think differently. As captain & the only decent striker currently at the club, Rooney will play more often than not and with the likes of Depay & Mata creating the chances for him there is every chance that he will break the 20 goal barrier for the first time since the 2011-12 season. United play Spurs, Villa & Newcastle in their opening three games, three teams against whom Rooney has a great record and therefore we expect a number of early season goals from him.

Sergio Aguero is unlikely to start against West Brom on Monday night due to the fact he returned to pre-season late while Diego Costa is a doubt for Chelsea’s game against Swansea on Saturday evening. Despite this I feel it necessary to include both as they’re two of, if not the two best strikers in the league and if there’s half a chance of them featuring that means there’s a good chance we’ll see them on the scoresheet. Aguero started the first two games of last season on the bench, yet scored in both games and he didn’t really stop scoring for the remainder of the season finally finishing with 26 goals. With City set to host Chelsea in GW2 I suspect that Aguero will feature from the bench on Monday night if only to get him up to speed ahead of the big game. He’s undoubtedly the most explosive forward in the league, so should you decided not to include him in your GW1 squad we would suggest you have a plan to get him in over the following two to three gameweeks. It’s somewhat surprising that the only forward Chelsea have brought to the club over the summer is Radamel Falcao, particularly when you consider how dodgy Costa’s hamstrings are. However with just Falcao & Remy as back-up it certainly means that once again Costa will be expected to lead the line more often than not. In his absence Chelsea struggled up top against Arsenal last Sunday and while it was only the Charity Shield it just goes to highlight how important he is to them. As a result of injuries he managed just 24 starts last season yet still finished with 20 goals, so if by some miracle he can buy some new hamstrings he could very well improve on that tally!

At this stage last season many FPL managers had not heard of one Harry Kane, come the 2nd half of the season if he wasn’t in your team you were doing something wrong! He finished last season with a total of 21 goals but perhaps somewhat worryingly he only scored twice in his last eight games, although this can possibly be attributed to end of season burnout. Following a trip to Old Trafford on the opening day of the season Spurs have a great run of fixtures and these will give us an indication as to whether Kane is likely to match last season’s exploits.

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A couple of mid-priced strikers whom much will be expected of this season are Southampton’s Graziano Pelle and Liverpool’s Christian Benteke. Pelle enjoyed a great start to last season scoring six times in his first eight games, unfortunately the goals then dried up and he became more worried with his appearance. He did however finish the season strongly, finding the back of the net four times in his last seven games. The Italian has spoken of how he and Sadio Mane can form a strong partnership over the coming season and they linked up to great effect for Southampton’s first against Vitesse Arnhem last Thursday night. The Saints early season fixtures will give Pelle every opportunity to work on this partnership and we will not be at all surprised should he match last season’s early exploits. Just like Aguero & Costa, there is a doubt as to whether Benteke will start against Stoke on Sunday as he has had a limited pre-season with his new teammates. Should Liverpool gel as a team (it’s a big ask!) Benteke will at the very least be provided with chances, what he does with them is another matter. As we saw throughout his three seasons at Villa when he’s on form he’s unplayable but when he’s not on form….well he’s just crap.

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As always we’ll finish up with a number of budget friendly strikers. Our picks this week are West Ham’s Diafro Sakho, Sunderland’s Jermain Defoe, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson and Troy Deeney of Watford. Sakho finished last season with just nine goals, although he missed a significant number of games through injury. With West Ham’s first three home games against Leicester, Bournemouth & Newcastle Sakho could be a great source of early season points. Having joined Sunderland in January Defoe spent much of the time being played out of position. Assuming he starts as the centre forward in a front three he could well prosper with Lens & Johnson either side of him. Wilson was Bournemouth’s leading goalscorer last season and with Bournemouth’s early season fixtures being as good as they come he certainly warrants some consideration. Having scored 64 league goals in the Championship over the last three seasons Deeney has every chance of being this seasons Charlie Austin.

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Thanks for reading Kops Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 1. This article was written by Kop Warrior

Follow @KenLyons79

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