Kops Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 6 – Differentials
We probably say this every season, but it really does feel as though it’s taking a long time for things to settle down in this season’s FPL. Take a look at the defences and you’ll see that Southampton, Villa & Burnley have all kept three clean sheets but in all honesty you’re unlikely to have fielded Villa & Burnley defenders in all of the games in which they kept clean sheets. The midfield has proved a little more straightforward but picking forwards has proved a nightmare with Diego Costa the only big hitter to consistently deliver. All this combined is making it difficult for fantasy managers to build a side they are happy with for more than a week! And we’re going to complicate things for you even further as this week we have decided to take a brief look at a number of differentials whom we feel could deliver over the coming game-weeks.
Goalkeepers
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[/three_fourth]In all honesty we rarely if ever look towards a goalkeeper in terms of picking up a differential but two goalkeepers with surprisingly low ownership rates are Southampton’s Fraiser Forster (3.8%) and Burnley’s Tom Heaton (1.8%). This is even more surprising when you take a look at some basic stats. Southampton have conceded just three goals in their opening five games, keeping three clean sheets in the process while Burnley have also kept three clean sheets and have conceded only four times in their opening five games. So basically, both Forster and Heaton boast the best defensive records after the first five games of the season. If you already think it sounds too good to be true, it gets better! Forster will only set you back £5.0m making him the cheapest route into the Saints defence, while Heaton is priced at just £4.5m. Finally, both clubs but particularly Southampton have some excellent fixtures coming up and therefore I suspect both Forster & Heaton will add to the three clean sheets they have picked up so far.
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Defenders
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[/three_fourth]Similarly to goalkeepers it’s not often we pick a defender on the basis that he’s a differential. Some fantasy managers might consider investing in a big hitter such as Ivanovic or Baines as being a differential, but when such players feature in 25% & 16% of teams there is no way they can be considered differentials. I have however identified a number of defenders whose ownerships rates I consider to be a little on the low side.
The first of these is Southampton’s Ryan Bertrand who features in just 4.4% of teams. Southampton sold Luke Shaw to Man United for £27m in the summer and have replaced him with Bertrand who has joined on a season long loan from Chelsea… did United sign the wrong full-back? Bertrand has settled in extremely well at St. Marys, starting the first five games and picking up an assist in the process. All the attention has been focused on Nathaniel Clyne who has picked up a goal, an assist and four bonus points, but this has seen his price rise to £5.3m and he currently features in 19% of teams so if you’re on the hunt for a differential from the best defence in the league then Bertrand could be your man.
Three other defenders who could also be viewed as potential differentials are Swansea’s Neil Taylor (3.9%) Leicester’s Liam Moore (1.9%) and Stoke’s Marc Wilson (1.8%). Swansea have conceded just six goals in the first five games, keeping two clean sheets and with Taylor having claimed an assist against Chelsea I feel he represents decent value for money at just £4.6m, particularly when you take a look at Swansea’s next four fixtures. Leicester’s defensive record to date hasn’t been great, but they have faced the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal & United. Their fixtures are set to become far more favourable over the coming weeks and at just £4.0 Moore is worth some serious consideration if you’re on the hunt for a budget defender. The Stoke defence has thus far proved to be an extremely frustrating proposition for fantasy managers, they’ve conceded only five goals to date but have only kept the one clean sheet in the process. However their fixtures remain quite favourable over the next few weeks and they will hopefully pick up a couple of clean sheets!
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Midfielders
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[/three_fourth]Moving onto the midfield and the potential differentials become somewhat more interesting. Unsurprisingly Angel di Maria is grabbing all the midfield headlines at Old Trafford, he has after all picked up two goals, two assists and four bonus points in his last two games. However if the Argentine is a little expensive for you or you are after a differential you could consider his midfield colleague, Ander Herrera. The Spaniard ‘eventually’ arrived in Manchester this summer and he is now beginning to settle in after missing game-weeks 2 & 3 through injury. Since then he has scored twice, claimed an assist and two bonus points in the last two games. With United’s defence no more resilient than a tea-bag, they will be forced to score plenty of goals if they are to win games meaning Herrera will be required to push forward and he is currently available for just £7.3m and features in just 4.4% of teams.
It’s hard to believe that this is the same Liverpool side who very nearly won the league last season, well it’s not really, they no longer have the mercurial Luis Suarez in their ranks! Without the Uruguayan their football has been slow and it looks as though they’re passing for the sake of passing, but hopefully the imminent return of Daniel Sturridge will spark them back to life. If they can find that spark Steven Gerrard is likely to come more to the fore as he attempts to dictate the pace of the game from a deep lying position. There’s no denying that it would take a giant leap of faith to bring Gerrard into your side but more often than not a differential is also a punt! It shouldn’t be forgotten that Gerrard is still on the vast majority of set pieces including penalties and if Liverpool do find that spark he could be decent value at £8.9m and he currently features in just 5.2% of teams.
Before you read on you should probably sit down and I want you to know that I’m deadly serious, I don’t joke about football!! Ok, so now that I’ve given you due warning I can now unveil the one & only Stewart Downing! Downing has never reached the heights of…well actually he’s never reached any heights, although he has had a couple of respectable FPL seasons in the distant past. He has however showed some promise over the opening five games of the season, scoring one and he has also claimed an assist in each of his last two games and has picked up six bonus points to date. If you’re on the hunt for a cheapish midfielder Downing actually warrants some consideration at just £5.5m and featuring in only 2.4% of teams.
Our final midfield tips this week are two deep lying midfielders, both of whom who have already found the back of the net this season and they are Chelsea’s Nemanja Matic and Hull’s Mohamed Diame. Matic does all the donkey work while Fabregas plays all the sexy football but this didn’t stop the Serb picking up a goal and an assist against Everton. He is likely to pick up either two or three points more often than not, but at just £5.5m he is the cheapest route into the most potent attack in the league and he currently features in just 4.7% of teams. Diame would be the ultimate gamble having scored in each of his last two games there is a small chance that you’ve missed the boat with Diame, but he has impressed in these games and he currently features in just 0.4% of teams.
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Forwards
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[/three_fourth]Last season Liverpool were the darlings of FPL as they scored goals for fun and this led to Suarez being a must have while Sturridge also proved extremely popular. Anyone who has seen Man United play of late will have seen remarkable similarities between Liverpool of last season and United of this, they’ve scored goals at will but as soon as they come under any pressure they crumble like the French! If this trend continues and I see no reason as to why it won’t, it means that United attacking coverage will be essential. Robin van Persie scored his first goal of the season on Sunday against Leicester to give us all a timely reminder of his capabilities, not that we’d actually forgotten. Should van Persie remain injury free for the season he should manage 20 goals and in all honesty he should break through that barrier with United playing such free flowing football. Currently featuring in just 2.1% of teams he represents the ultimate differential, the only problem is that he’s an expensive differential as he costs £12.4m!!
As I’ve already mentioned above when transferring a differential into your team you are more often than not taking a punt and my next differential is most certainly a punt, it’s Newcastle’s Papiss Cisse. The Senegalese international missed the first four games of the season and played just 22 minutes against Hull last weekend but he’s already the clubs leading scorer having scored two off the bench against Hull. The Geordies currently sit bottom of the table with just three draws from their opening five games, but they will be hoping that their fight back against Hull will have been the spark to ignite their season and luckily their forthcoming fixtures are not the toughest. Cisse was a revelation when he joined Newcastle back in January 2012, scoring 13 goals in just 14 appearances. Unfortunately for Newcastle he has subsequently failed to reach those heights but should he manage to recapture that form and he could prove to be the ultimate differential as he features in just 0.1% of teams and at just £5.9m his price tag is most certainly budget friendly.
Next up is Southampton’s Graziano Pelle who currently features in just 7.4% of teams. The Saints are offering up value for money all over the park and at just £7.7m I feel that Pelle currently offers excellent value for money. The Italian had a slow start to the season, that is if you consider not scoring in the opening two games a slow start, but he has certainly come to the party in recent weeks with three goals, an assist and four bonus points in his subsequent three games. Ronald Koeman appears to have spent well over the summer and with Southampton having some great fixtures over the next six or seven game-weeks I suspect that Pelle will continue to impress.
Before the season kicked off much was made of Stoke’s new signing Bojan Krkic as he scored a few goals in preseason and everyone got excited by the fact that he had played for Barcelona and was only £5.5m. Unfortunately for those who invested in the Spanish international he turned out to be a flop! However, Stoke’s forward line still offers up a couple of differentials, namely Mame Diouf and Peter Crouch. Diouf (0.8%) has scored twice while Crouch (1.7%) picked up a goal and an assist last time out against QPR. Neither are likely to be prolific but at just £6.4 and £5.7 they won’t break the bank and Stoke do have some decent fixtures over the coming game-weeks.
Thanks for reading Kops Fantasy Football Tips Game-week 6. This article was written by Kop Warrior
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done with the transfers before the prices screwed me further and after injuries in the capital one cup games were looked at.
finally getting rid of mata at a 0.3 loss. and debuchy too.
fabregas FINALLY makes it to my team with bertrand (wanted clyne but the price drops screwed me).
so this is how it finally looks for this week…
just not sure about the captain choice…
villa have been sporting a mean defensive display so maybe not costa, and aguero and sterling might not start due to lack of fitness…
right now on welbeck. what do you guys think?
Very strong team you have there buddy. For me, it would be between Costa/Aguero for the captaincy. Third choice would be Di Maria, although, Spurs look weak at the moment so Welbeck could work out nicely i suppose.
thanks NIN.
but i reckon a lot of fpl players have about the same players now.
except for aguero and welbeck, everyone else in my mid and attack is in at least 40% of the teams.
so i guess, it will all boil down to captaincy decisions now.
really scratching my head on this one.
Nice team mate, who’s on the bench?
thanks PvR,
the bench right now is a work in progress.
with albrighton, chester and hutton.
if none of my playing xi gets injured, my next few moves will be to transfer out chester and albrighton asap.
Jasprit, team looks good. Dont be to down about Bertrand, as like Kop says above he is a differential, plus his stats tell us that he has a lot more touches in the opponents half than Clyne! 😉
I would give the armband to Costa. Villa’s defence didnt look that mean last week mate. Welbeck if you want a risky differential maybe?
thanks b-bash.
i really feel like strapping on the armband to welbeck. the only thing scaring me – is that with almost all good fpl players having about the same players now, the only thing differentiating between them will be the captain choice. and takes make it really crucial to not screw up there.
even in my next H2H banterbury match up with tinkerman, all our front seven now are exactly the same.
if you go wrong at this point, you might go too wrong, and one good punt if turns out well… could propel anyone to higher ranks.
Good point mate, but I just feel that Costa is more likely to do damage at the Bridge against Villa than Wellbeck will do at the London derby. Like you say, if it goes wrong it goes wrong big, because 1000’s of fpl teams will have Costa as cappo.
This is why we love it so much!! 😉
Your team is almost the same as mine, however I just traded Costa out and brought Aguero in, leaving Rooney in my team. I just think Rooney is going to be more reliable than Costa. I will have sleepless nights with both Aguero & Costa in my team, i’m worried about rotation and injury. Plus Costa is in 66% of teams (99% if you don’t count ghost teams)
Evening guys! Anyone still around willing to give some advice?
I’m thinking Balo and Rodwell out, Pellé and Sterling in for -4. Plan to WC GW8, not sure if a hit at this stage would be wise.
Any other moves I should do instead?
1FT – 2.1 ITB
Albertini if you’re going to WC in GW8 anyway then as you said a hit loses its value I think. I’d think about Rodwell to Downing and just tough it out until GW8 like me
Cheers CC, I thought about Downing, really did. It’s just I fear Balo could be benched if Sturridge is fit enough to start and I’m one of the few who are still without Sterling!
You and me both! Hoping all the twitter grumblings about him turn out to be prophetic as about 90% of my rivals stole a march on me last GW. Here’s to a nice Ramsey double-pointer
:beer:
I think you should brave it out mate, I would use the FT to go Rodwell to Herrera, then WC in the Int. break.
Either that or WC now, as there a quite a few changes you could make, but you shouldn’t go to bad over the next couple of weeks.
Sorry, the pics a bit blurry so thought Rodwell was 5.6 not 5
PvR a good tip mate – if you use Chrome then download an extension called Hover Zoom. Whenever you hold the mouse over an image it will instantly appear full size on top of it, so instead of trying to make out something blurry or clicking on it to open in a new window you can just see the team in perfect definition without even clicking anything. Works wonders for me
Indeed, sorry mate… I’m terrible at photo editing!
Cheers PVR, not enough money to Herrera, only 7.1 to replace Rodwell.
Hi Demetrio, good to see you buddy. I echo Calvin and PvR, probably not worth the hit if you’re wildcarding in a fortnight. Rodwell to Downing/Schneiderlin, or, Balotelli to Pelle/Aguero sound like legit moves to me.
Morning NIN, good to see you too mate.
The only problem with the latter move is I’d be with no Liverpool cover and they will probably score a few against a leaky Everton def. But thanks, I’ll think about it and will decide later on.
Downing is a good shout, I see you already have him, and WHAM will host QPR next week hmmmm…
Adebayor to Ulloa this week for a hit, any takers on that one?
Reasoning behind it would be to bank dosh for later upgrades before they get out of reach + Ulloa is on fire.
You still around Rooster? Thoughts on above hit in relation to comments on 49.1?
Sheesh, conversing with myself here, Raz must be rubbing off on me
NIN don’t think a hit is worth it mate. Leicester will have Palace away which is not an easy and high scoring game imo and Spurs can always score in the NLD. Ulloa already rose 0.2 this week, can’t see him rise again until Saturday.
Morning Albertini, thanks for the response. I actually did the move last night before the price rise, there was nobody around to talk me out of it
Operation ‘beef that defence’ has now begun :hippo:
Sorry mate, only this morning I saw this. Anyway, you catch his price rise and he could do very well in the following weeks.
Tell me about that operation, looking for any City defender, Mangala, Kompany? getting rid of Janmaat?
It will take me another two gwks to put it together so come gwk 8 it will be Coleman, Mangala, Baines. After the Ulloa move i have the money for it so Mangala next week and Coleman the week after. My thinking is that it’s effectively playing 1-6-3 as the Everton boys are seriously attacking and have good CS potential from gwk8 on. He who dares 😉
Really daring! Everton defence has to improve a lot so they can get some CS but they surely have the potential for it if they manage to get back to last season’s strength.
That’s the idea mate. gwk 8 on sees a lovely change in fixture strength for them. Hopefully the three defenders produce the goods like i think they will. I’ve been waiting on Mangala to be fit for a number of weeks now.
That is one of the reasons that made me plan to WC in GW8, Everton, Arsenal and City’s fixtures will become quite good.
Choo choo, NIN’s daily bandwagon, Mangala is now sitting next to Downing
init – Not quite yet, but soon. You know i love a good gamble mate 😉 To be fair to the lad, he’s a quality defender and has very good goal ratio. Mangoala if you will
My bad, he’s just running alongside it for now then
Hardly a massive gamble though a City defender who scores goals!
He’s a beast! From my FC Porto you only get quality players, that’s why you have to pay very well!
Not even when paired with Coleman and Baines? :hippo:
Albertini, Porto must be a very rich club these days. They always seem to get great fee’s and replace the players well. Do you’s still have Quintero? I really like the look of that kid, he could be a monster in years to come.
NIN he will get plenty of goals for you with Baines and Coleman supplying the crosses
Coleman and Baines is one of the biggest crazinesses I have heard of in modern times
Please do go with it, could be disastrous, amazing, or somewhere in between 😉
LOL Init and CC
NIN – Beats me but we’re not rich, in fact we’re dealing with some financial issues at eh moment which is rather strange as we always make good profit when we transfer out our players and every season we have a few going away.
Quintero is still here but nowadays he’s not even first choice, we have Oliver Torres on loan from Atlético de Madrid playing instead of him. But he is having some opportunities and with some work rate he might be back in the starting XI, he’s a great talent for sure.
Interesting, Albertini. I presumed he’d be established now that he’s in his early 20’s. I still think we’ll be seeing a lot of him in the future.
Calvin – Oh it’s on mate, it’s well on. Mangala next week then Seamus the week after. Then it will be a matter of hiding under the sheets for a month or so, crossed fingers, the lot
init – It’s a wagon life, many’s a wagon i tells ya 😉
who’s everyone captaining this week?
Aguero/Costa. I’m really tempted by Aguero but it’d be a brave one to bet against Costa this week.
yeah i agree. Di Maria v West Ham?
Di Maria would be my 3rd choice. Chelsea/City fixtures are maybe just a little to kind to avoid both, for me. All three should do well though.
when is it time to get rid of De Gea
gwk2
Ah no, i’m only joking but the sooner the better i reckon. Right folks, i’m calling it a night. Take it easy.
haha ok. I live in Australia so its only 11am
How does this team look?
Solid. Hopefully Kolarov gets a start for you, could be a nice score from him this time round.
what should my trades be next week
I would ditch Speroni as you’ll be playing Hart week in week out so a 4m sub GK would be preferable and give you some extra cash to mess about with.