MLS DGW4 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS DGW4 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer

Are you still playing FMLS? Because if you are, you’re about to encounter one of the worst things about the American league – the nonsensical way in which the MLS handles international breaks. Whereas this coming weekend is a period of rest from club play for (pretty much) the entire world, the MLS still managed to schedule three matches. So 14 MLS clubs get to take the time off and not be affected by international call-ups, but 6 clubs have to navigate around reduced rosters. Makes sense right? Somehow those three matches are so crucial that they couldn’t have been delayed another week.

I will say this though, in the past, the MLS would have made this weekend a proper game week – that is, they would’ve just given you unlimited transfers and had you fend for yourself that way. But this year is a bit different. The MLS is making this weekend and next weekend into a single round – so we get our first DGW of the year. It isn’t an ideal situation, like I said. But if you love a challenge (and most of you do) then this is the round for you.

#1) KNOW YOUR DGW TEAMS
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[/three_fourth]Even though there are three matches this weekend to kick off the DGW, only four teams are actually on the double for this round. Those teams are: DC United, FC Dallas, NE Revolution and the Vancouver Whitecaps. And at this point in the season, this really is an “odd” mix of teams to have to bank on for your first chance at double points. Dallas haven’t been the world-beaters we thought they would be (but they’ll get there). DC have been doing very DC type of things (mainly being completely unreliable or predictable). New England have conceded twice as many goals as they’ve scored. And Vancouver have yet to land their one-two punch that made them so good last year in stretches.

And before we get any further into this, you should know that this round is going to be a big gamble no matter how well you play it. The international call-ups will only affect the DGW teams’ first match of the round, and everybody should be home and ready to play by next weekend. The problem is that you will have to lock in players for next weekend while prepping for this week. So if any of your international-caliber players get hurt during training or during a match, you’re pretty much screwed when it comes time for them to play later in the round. But hey, who doesn’t love to gamble, right? For a full list of international call-ups, visit the MLS site HERE.click here

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#1A) FC Dallas v DC (A), COL (H)

Dallas are losing the greatest amount of players from the DGW teams. Players missing the first game of the round are: Tesho Akindele, Maynor Figueroa, Jesse Gonzalez, Atiba Harris, Kellyn Acosta and Walker Zimmerman. Really, these are a lot of role-players (outside of Gonzalez), so it really isn’t going to affect you too badly if you’re still heavily invested in Dallas. Fabian Castillo, Mauro Diaz and Max Urruti are still all in action for both weeks of this round, and you would do well to have at least one or two of them on your squad. And we will see Hedges and Loyd for at least one game this round – though they may not play in the second half of the round. Stick to the Dallas attack.

#1B) DC United v Dallas (H), SJ (A)

DC are a mixed bag – and they rotated very heavily last year during DGW’s. But this really isn’t a DGW from the team’s perspective is it? This is just two normal weekend matches that happen to fall into a single fantasy round. So I’m guessing that the rotation won’t be quite as heavy. DC are losing Alvaro Saborio and Steve Birnbaum to international play – so that does leave you with options on their squad that might be worth a roll of the dice. Fabian Espindola has only seen limited minutes so far this year, but he may see an uptick in time if Saborio isn’t around to take those minutes from him. Really, the best options for DC are going to be Worra in goal and Lamar Neagle in midfield. Outside of that, you’re probably not going to find many players that you’ll want for any length of time. DC are second from bottom in the East and have a -3 GD. They may find some success against Dallas – but the long San Jose trip isn’t going to do them any favors.

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#1C) New England v NYC (A), NYRB (H)

Even though NE didn’t get two home matches, the New York fixture isn’t that far to travel. The problem for this trio of teams is that they’re all pretty unpredictable right now. New England, like DC, have yet to win a match this year. And they’ve conceded 6 goals in three matches – so things aren’t looking great for them defensively. New England are losing Je-Vaughn Watson and Lee Nguyen for the first match of the round, and losing Nguyen will hurt them. Diego Fagundez is a bit of a wonderkid, but I always feel like he’s never fully earned the trust of the coaching staff – and his subbing off after an hour last week is something to take note of. New England are very poor up front, so I’d pass on their forwards. Their defense tends to be active though, and you may find a differential gem in their midfield that you may want to rent for this round.

#1D) Vancouver Whitecaps v Houston (H), LA (H)
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[/three_fourth]Vancouver have the distinction of being the only team of this DGW group that plays at home twice. So for me, that rockets them to the top of the probable-points chart. In the MLS, home fixtures can often be more important than talent. But Vancouver do have talent, they just haven’t played to potential yet this year. Vancouver will be a bit short-staffed in their opening match; they’re losing Cristian Bolanos, Kendall Waston, Blas Perez and Tim Parker to international duty. But this may be a blessing in disguise. Vancouver were best last year when Pedro Morales and Octavio Rivero were forced to rely on each other to create offense. Maybe with a bit of a stripped down squad they can find that rhythm again. I’m not focusing on their start to the year, but I’m going to rely on what we have seen previously from these two. From front to back, Vancouver have options to invest in for this round (and they’re options you can feel good about carrying into another round or two as well).

Houston are a scary opponent for anybody right now, I’ll concede that. They could go to Vancouver and score any amount of goals – that’s just what they do right now. So it is important to keep in mind that Houston lead the league with 11 goals this year (4 more than the next team) – and that could pose a bit of a problem for those heavy in Vancouver’s defense. But I’ve moved past worrying about LA being a force on the road. Historically over the last two years – and what we’ve seen this year – LA winning strongly on the road is a fluke, it’s the exception to the rule. More times than not, betting on a team beating a travelling LA squad is a good idea.

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#2) DGW THEORY

There are a lot of people who aren’t really high on this DGW – and from some of the points I’ve listed above, you can probably understand why. But what most people are missing out on is the obvious: more minutes equals greater chance for points. It’s not rocket-surgery people. There are trends in statistical analysis that are worth knowing, but sometimes the best approach is the easiest. Just get more players on a DGW and hope for the best.

This game gives you two transfers per week, so there really isn’t any reason for playing overly conservative. If you pick a player and he doesn’t work out…so what? You swap him out the next round and still have a transfer leftover to do some more tinkering.

The best approach is to be aggressive in my opinion. You’re going to start to take point hits at some point in the near future because we have a good amount of DGW’s coming up. So if you’re on the fence with how to manipulate your team, take a point hit to make it work. For example, if you simply can’t afford Pedro Morales this round from using two transfers, then make a third transfer to make that happen. Having Pedro Morales on a double is worth a -4. Hell, having Rivero (who has done nothing yet) is worth a -4 this week. You’re spending points hoping for the greater return. There, I’ve said my piece. Just do me a favor and don’t walk into this DGW with only 2 DGW players. That’s not how we play this game.

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#3) THE BEST OF THE REST

We’ve spent a lot of time discussing the DGW (and that will happen a lot this year). So let’s briefly touch on what else we can do this round.

Montreal are still in first in the East, and many people are wondering whether or not Piatti should be dropped this week so that they can rent another player on the DGW. Ordinarily I’d say that any single game player could be swapped out for a week, but this move gives me a bit of pause. Montreal are travelling to Seattle this week – and Seattle have been simply awful (I love that I get to write that – and I love even more that it’s true). Seattle are in last place, and they’re conceding quite a few more goals than they’ve scored. Moving Piatti out may not be the worst idea if you’re bringing in Morales, but don’t swap him out for a Caldwell or Nyarko type player.

We all knew that Giovinco wasn’t going to get 14 points per match during his 8-game road series. He was doing pretty well there for a while until the miles caught up with him last week. His 4 points were still respectable to some degree – he did have 5 shots after all. But it’s not going to be fireworks every time. So what do we make of this round that will see Giovinco go to Mile-High Colorado? I have no idea. Honestly I don’t understand Colorado. Never have, never will. We can all agree that Colorado are pretty garbage, right? And nobody has them pegged to go to the playoffs. But somehow, Colorado’s only win this year came against LA – and they have only managed to concede and score 2 goals through 3 games. So will Giovinco finally put them on the path to a negative GD? Or will the thin air get to Toronto, making us all have to watch another 0-0 or 1-1 Rapids match? I always bet on Giovinco in a case like this, but I might be wrong.

If you needed to go against the grain this week and pick up a player not on a DGW, that player should probably be Diego Valeri. This new scoring system is highlighting just how important he is on all facets of the Portland team. Last week he scored 6 Attacking Bonus points. He’s the real deal. The amazing thing right now is that he’s already been transferred out by 128 people this round, and he’s sitting at 13.3% ownership. It’s almost criminal that a player of his caliber is almost at differential levels. Picking him up isn’t the worst thing to do either – Portland have a DGW in GW6.

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#4) CAPTAIN PICKS
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[/three_fourth]This is actually pretty easy this week, pick your favorite DGW players and run with it. It’s always a bit of a crapshoot when it comes to picking the cap on the doubles. But if I had to break it down for you, it would go like this. I prefer Pedro Morales over Rivero, but my gut is telling me that Rivero is on the cusp of reintroducing himself to the league as a legitimate forward again. Mauro Diaz is probably the safest pick of the lot, but Dallas played like crap on the road two weeks ago. Without Gonzalez or their normal defense, Dallas may be playing a bit on their heels in their first match – but maybe Diaz gets a defensive bonus playing that way.

New England could hold the most fun pick if you can stomach taking the risk on the minutes with Diego Fagundez. Their second match against the NYRB could be a real barn-burner; the Red Bulls have conceded more goals this year than any other club – could be huge points in there for somebody. Only captain a DC player if you’ve lost a bet. Otherwise, skip them.

The only other picks that could be made this round would be Giovinco (because he’s Giovinco) or Valeri. But if you pick either of those two, you’re essentially gambling that four teams will play twice, and not one of their players will have a standout performance. Those just aren’t good odds.

Be safe and cap a DGW player. All the cool kids are doing it.

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The MLSFI Podcast
We mentioned this last week and we hope you had a chance to listen in but if you didn’t then be sure to try and check out this weeks edition. The guys know MLS inside out but more than that they’re just a great listen every week and you get to follow their teams, their successes and their woes. Pretty much the same soap story that unfolds on our FPL comments on here every week, only in a podcast format!

The link to the podcast itself is here MLSFI – DGW4 but even if you don’t find the time then their handy chalkboard of pundits picks is back this week also as per below.

Don’t forget to stop by mlsfantasyboss.com to catch up on their great weekly articles that lead into the deadline.

Or if you are after listening to more of Guy himself then be sure to drop in and give his Married Man’s Guide to Sports Addiction a listen!

To play the MLS game itself it’s fantasy.mlssoccer.com that you need.

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And last but not least, don’t forget to join the FF247 MLS League, Code is: 123-361

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MLS DGW4 Tips – Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez