MLS GW27 Tips Fantasy Major League Soccer

MLS GW27 Tips Fantasy Major League Soccer

I have to say, on a personal note, even I was surprised by how ‘MLS-y’ the MLS was this past weekend. Just when you think that you’re starting to get a hold on some things, everything is turned on its head again. And here’s the big news: the game is now not so far out of reach for many people as it was before. In case you missed it, Giovinco was injured pretty badly and will be out for a month (maybe more); and what that injury means for the game is staggering.

But this being the MLS, the Giovinco injury is just the tip of the iceberg. We’ve got a slew of other injured players, bye weeks and international duty to worry about too – all at the same time. And with no FPL to worry about this weekend, you may as well attempt to set an FMLS roster once more. Who knows, maybe you’ll be the one to strike gold.

This weeks DEADLINE is Thursday Sept 1st at 7pm EDT, so approx midnight for our UK guys.

#1) The upcoming schedule
So this first bullet point is simply no fun. The most obvious thing to get out of the way are the teams on a bye this week – they are: Houston, Montreal, Orlando, RSL, San Jose, Seattle, SKC, Toronto. Even without some of the injuries we have been fretting over, we were always set to lose a great deal of talent this round regardless of anything else.

Next round is completely different, we’ll go back to a full schedule with four teams on a DGW (Montreal, LA, Orlando, RSL). Now, if you’re one of those people whose roster is so perfectly planned out that you aren’t planning on using a WC next next week, then I congratulate you. But if you’re looking at this week as a complete mess, then just get through it the best you can and plan on using your WC next week. No sense in trying to plan for the future when three of the four teams on a double next week are on a bye this week. It just doesn’t make any sense to try to stash those players on your bench this round unless you really do have a fully fit squad already in place.

There have been people grumbling that they may try to use their WC this round to max effect and stock their bench with as much DGW for next week as possible. That’s a risky strategy and should really only be used in an absolute emergency – and by emergency I mean you can’t start more than 3 players this round. Even then…I’d probably still take a -8 and hope for the best. But to each their own.

The MLS has done a pretty decent job of marking off most players with a red alert to let you know who isn’t playing, and they’ve compiled a running list on their site as well. If you want something a bit more visual though, take a look at @soccercaptains timeline on twitter. He’s assembled a great spreadsheet showing all of the players and teams with bye week exclusions included.

Either way you look at it, it’s slim pickings this week. The names being shipped out this week are too many to list – but you’re in for a bit of shock when you log onto your team. Prepare yourselves. Also note that the round starts on Thursday this week, so it’s an odd roster-lock schedule to account for as well.

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#2) The Giovinco conundrum resolves itself
Giovinco really did break the game this year. His talent, his scoring and his price were all in that perfect combination to push him above 70% ownership and thus stalling out a lot of the significant movement within the higher ranks of the game. Now that he’s out, however, owners will find that they have $13.9 to spend on another top-tier forward and midfielder next round. The combinations could be interesting as there’s actually a chance for real differential play now.

The other thing this does is break the template captaincy that so many people have employed to keep pack with the herd. For the first time in a long time, many managers will have to think for themselves when choosing a captain in the coming rounds (nobody on this site, mind you – just the rabble that congregate on other tips sites). Next week the captaincy will obviously fall to a DGW player for many, but this week is going to be a panicked choice for many. With no Giovinco and many top guys not available, we’ll have to see how creative people are willing to get.

I’m not sure that a ton can change the look of the rankings with so little time left in the season – but this is the best chance many of us will have to make a final push. Keep that in mind.

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#3) Key matchups
The first matchup that we have to look at is NYC kicking off the round at home on Thursday against DC United. On the surface, everything looks pretty well in line for NYC to come out with an easy victory – but that was until DC notched 6 goals over the weekend against a depleted Chicago side. The key for DC was the play of Patrick Mullins up front providing a hat trick, but Acosta and Nyarko also accounted for 5 assists in the match. Maybe this is all fool’s gold and DC will come back down to earth, but if you’re looking for a stretch play right before a wildcard, you could do worse than ride the hot hand. This match is set to go over 3 goals according to the bookies – and we all know that NYC defense can be suspect.

Next look at the Chicago Fire at home against Philly, and play all the Philly players you have. Chicago were without Accam to disastrous effect last round, and they’ll be without him this round as well (international play). Philly will be losing Blake and Bedoya, but they’re pretty much intact and look well placed to take advantage of the matchup here.

Lastly, we’re going to look at FC Dallas vs. Portland. I think this is going to be a high scoring game on both sides of the ball. Dallas are losing a few players to call-ups and Portland are losing Nagbe and a pair of Jamaican defenders. Portland know that they need to continue to apply the pressure with Valeri and Adi, and if Dallas watched the Portland v Seattle match, they’ll know they need to match the Timbers step for step. Dallas may be favored in the match, but the over 2.5 goals bet is sitting at a -140. Should be goals in abundance here.

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#4) Buy/Sell
Once again this week – I think you’ll find a sufficient amount of red alerts on your team page telling you who you need to sell. Just start with the most expensive players and work your way down. And that means that you absolutely must sell Giovinco first and free up all of those wonderful funds we’ve been missing.

But for buying this week, it does get to be a bit tricky. A lot of the talent we’re used to seeing around will be absent, so we’re going to have to get creative. There really won’t be a template this week, so the right buy could really pay off huge for you.

Buy – Luciano Acosta (DC, $8.8).
The top three transferred in forwards so far this round are BWP, Villa and dos Santos, so chances are you’ll have one or two of them yourself. But Acosta really put on a show this past weekend and he’s still much further down the ‘transferred in’ list than his counterpart Mullins. Mullins may have scored the goals, but Acosta nabbed more points by being the best player on the pitch that day. Mullins assisted three, scored one and nabbed four bonuses besides. He’s still owned by less than 2% of the entire league, so he would fit wonderfully as a high risk / high reward pick for you to find a bit of movement up the ranks.

Buy – Diego Valeri (M, $11.3).
I know, it sounds obvious to say that you should own Valeri on a short week, but he’s currently the most transferred in midfielder, and you may need him simply to not lose ground to competitors. Valeri is really at his best when his target man is operating at normal capacity, and it looks like Adi finally turned a corner this past weekend against Seattle. I don’t know if it was benching him or just the Seattle rivalry, but Adi looked like he was ready to score again – and that’s all good news for Valeri. Will Valeri be impacted with Nagbe to control the ball in the middle and win tackles? Somewhat, I’m sure. But Valeri is skilled enough to know he’s going to have to get the ball off his feet in a hurry and into a good spot. I’d expect another performance around double-digit points this weekend for him.

Buy – Mike Grella (M, $8.2).
Was I the only one who didn’t know that Grella was listed as a midfielder this year? He was never a top priority of mine with BWP and Kljestan being available, but I might have checked him out a bit more had I known he could be slotted in the middle. With Kljestan gone this week, Vancouver are going to have one option: defend BWP at all costs. And they’ll have to employ that strategy because they are losing five players to international duty and their options for dealing with NY will really come down to using whatever resources they have available to stop the Red Bulls striker. That could mean good things for Grella, and could provide him some wide open lanes to take some shots for himself. At only 6% ownership, Grella is a great pick for a one-off against a lesser opponent.

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#5) Captain Picks
Wow, this is a section I haven’t had to give a ton of thought to with Giovinco killing it in scoring for so long. But here we find ourselves, no Giovinco to rely on, and half the league’s stars are either on a bye or on a plane to play internationally.

First pick for me then has to come from the game that is slotted to go the highest for scoring. David Villa is still the main threat for NYC, and even though I’m expecting a good deal of momentum from DC coming into this game, I still think that Villa can outpace all scorers in this spot. Unlike BWP, Villa didn’t really lose any of his supporting cast to international duty (nevermind that his supporting cast are too old for international duty, that’s beside the point) and their continuity will serve owners well this weekend.

Next I’m taking Mauro Diaz over Diego Valeri simply because Dallas are the home team and Portland are now without defenders again. I think Valeri will rack up bonus points faster than Diaz, but I think Diaz could probably score and assist his way to a better score by the end of 90 minutes.

Lastly, I’m going Tranquilo Barnetta on the road against Chicago. The Philly midfielder has been under the radar for too long, and he has a great chance of being in the Dream Team this week just by the process of eliminating competing scorers from the player pool. Barnetta’s last five scores are: 14, 7, 5 ,6 and 10. With numbers like that he probably deserves a shot in your roster going forward due to his consistency and reasonable price. But against a Chicago side that are now without their best player? He’s probably worth a captaincy as well.

Don’t forget to stop by mlsfantasyboss.com to catch up on their great weekly articles that lead into the deadline.

Or if you are after listening to more of Guy himself then be sure to drop in and give his Married Man’s Guide to Sports Addiction a listen!

To play the MLS game itself it’s fantasy.mlssoccer.com that you need.

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And last but not least, don’t forget to join the FF247 MLS League, Code is: 123-361

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MLS GW27 Tips Fantasy Major League Soccer This article was written by Guy Sanchez (FootyFantastic)

Follow @Guy_M_Sanchez