Welcome to Navigating upcoming GWs to field a strong team in BGW31
It’s been a tough FPL season for many of us. The bad news is that it’s about to get even tougher with a number of blank and double GWs to navigate as we slowly reach its final stages. There is good news too though: there is a huge opportunity in those trickier upcoming weeks and those of us who’ll take advantage of it will be the ones who may still find pride in their OR once the dust of this FPL season has finally settled. The first stage of this opportunity has begun already and will end with a very tough BGW31. The purpose of this article is to provide some thoughts on how to manage our FPL teams throughout this stage. Or in other words, to answer the following question:
How can we field 10 players in BGW31 without sacrificing important players with good fixtures on the way and making transfers that are likely to pay off not only in GW31, but also in those that precede it?
In the process of preparing this analysis, I’ve used Ben Crellin’s fabulous spreadsheet and bear in mind that the analysis below does not take into consideration using our WC or FH as a remedy to the difficulties of BGW31.
What do we want to achieve and what’s the set-up?
The facts are as follows:
• The only two games that we can be sure will take place in BGW31 are: Liverpool vs. Watford and Stoke vs. Everton
• WBA face Southampton on February 17th, which means there’s a roughly 50/50 chance that Bournemouth vs. WBA will also take place in BGW31, and we will know that for sure before GW28
• The majority of us have got 4 / 5 FTs left before BGW31 kicks off
And here’s a handful of assumptions for the purpose of this analysis:
• Huddersfield vs. Crystal Palace will take place in BGW31 (77% probability according to betting odds)
• No other games, apart from the ones mentioned above, will take place in BGW31
• In an average active FPL team we will find 4 players from Liverpool, Watford, Stoke, Everton, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace (a quick look at teams in my leagues tells me that these 4 players would probably be recruited from the following ones: Salah, Firmino, Shaqiri/ Choupo-Moting, Richarlison / Doucoure, Walcott, Milivojevic and Quaner / Depoitre)
• We should probably stay away from Watford players, i.e. we might consider keeping them if we already own them, but buying them is not advisable as their fixtures are rather average + they face Liverpool away in BGW31 and it’s hard to see them doing much in that game
Finally, here are the goals we would like to achieve:
• We want to field at least 10 players in BGW31
• We want to avoid getting rid of key players with good fixtures early in the process (e.g. Kane) just for the sake of fielding a strong team in BGW31
• We want to bring in players that make sense for fixtures between the moment we buy them and BGW31, not just for BGW31 (e.g. bringing in Benteke, who has delivered returns in all of his last 5 fixtures, makes perfect sense for BGW31 as Crystal Palace face Huddersfield, but doing so now with 4 tough games ahead of him would be overkill)
• We want to take 0 or 1 hits at most (depends on Bournemouth featuring in BGW31 or not)
Here are fixtures of the teams that we either know or assume will feature in BGW31:
Before GW27
My decision here was to bring in Walcott. He’s done well at Everton so far, seems nailed, plus has arguably got the tastiest fixture. Some other interesting options were: Firmino, VVD and Shaqiri.
Who did I get rid of? For me that was Son who might face rotation soon and seems to have a lost at least a bit of his previous form.
Before GW28
This is a good time to bring in VVD. With him on board, Liverpool should tighten up at the back and with two homes against struggling WHU and Newcastle, VVD offers more than just Clean Sheet potential. Some other interesting options are: Firmino (to replace Aguero who’s got 2 tough fixtures in GW28 and GW29) and Coleman (depending on his latest injury prognosis).
At this stage it could be wise to replace our Chelsea defender (for me it’s Alonso) as they face both Manchester teams in 2 subsequent GWs, as well as could be rotated given Chelsea’s Champions League duties. Another possible candidate for exile would be Otamendi. He hasn’t delivered attacking returns since GW16 and his CS potential is limited with Arsenal and Chelsea being his GW28 and GW29 rivals. However, if we’re not facing budget pressures then we could get rid of any of our cheaper defenders.
Before GW29
Apart from Watford, whom we at least at this stage assume we want to avoid, and Liverpool, the other teams have rather difficult fixtures. So – unless we own less than 3 Liverpool players at that point – our wisest move might be rolling the transfer.
Before GW30
Here, as a 2 GW punt, we might consider bringing in whoever’s been prolific in Everton’s or Huddersfield’s attack/ midfield over the previous few weeks as both teams have two great fixtures in GW30 and GW31. However, the problem with forwards is that 2 of our spots are likely to be occupied by Kane and Aguero/ Firmino, whereas the third one is probably taken by Wilson. Selling Kane and Aguero before games against Bournemouth and Stoke respectively would not be smart, whereas we want to keep Firmino for BGW31. Wilson is a question mark today, but the good news is that at that point we will now whether he features in BGW31 or not. If he doesn’t – it’s a great time to sell as Bournemouth face Spurs in GW30. Alternatively, if none of Everton’s and Huddersfield’s forwards and mids seem convincing enough or we don’t have a free spot in those formations, perhaps Coleman or Pickford could be the answer to our worries.
We get rid of whoever has a tricky fixture in GW30 (e.g. Lingard, Pogba, Jones or de Gea) and whom we can potentially bring back on our WC without losing too much TV.
Before BGW31
If we managed to roll the transfer in GW29, then we should have 2 FTs at our disposal at that point. Given that Crystal Palace face Huddersfield, this might be a good moment to double up on their attacking assets, e.g. Benteke & Zaha, or choose just one of them and either a Crystal Palace defender or another asset that makes sense to us from the other teams that feature in BGW31.
Please note we will be WCing in GW32 or GW33, so we can even get rid of Kane or Aguero at that point, and bring them back on our WC. In fact, if our WC is still intact, then it doesn’t really matter which blanking player we get rid of, as long as we don’t lose too much TV that way.
If it turns out Bournemouth will not feature in BGW31 or we do not have 4 BGW31 players in our team today, then in order to field 10 players we will need to take a hit. Whether that makes sense is hard to predict today and I suggest we deal with this question when the time comes.
BGW31 team
Here are examples of teams that we could field if we follow the advice provided in this analysis (new players in bold):
If Bournemouth & WBA feature in BGW31:
Goalkeeper (blanks) – VVD (WAT), Daniels (WBA), Coleman (sto) – Salah (WAT), Walcott (sto), Shaqiri/ Choupo-Moting (EVE), Zaha (hud) – Firmino (WAT), Wilson (WBA), Benteke (hud)
If Bournemouth & WBA do not feature in BGW31 (-4 hit):
Pickford (sto) – VVD (WAT), Coleman (sto), Defender (blanks) – Salah (WAT), Walcott (sto), Shaquiri/ Choupo-Moting (EVE), Zaha (hud), Richarlison (liv) – Firmino (WAT), Benteke (hud)
Final remarks
If we follow this process, then we should be able to tick off all of our goals (of course, baring injuries and other unexpected disasters):
• we field 10 players in BGW31
• we don’t sacrifice important players too early in the process
• we don’t take more than 1 hit
• and, perhaps most importantly, if we follow the transfer flow suggested in this analysis, then the players we bring in will be looking at the following fixtures at the time of purchase:
• Walcott (before GW27): CP, wat, bur, BRI, sto
• VVD (before GW28): WHU, NEW, mu, WAT
• Coleman (before GW30): BRI, sto
• Benteke & Zaha (before BGW31): hud
…which justifies those transfers not only with BGW31 in mind, but also from the perspective of earlier GWs.
Please note that these teams (with premium-priced players such as de Gea or even Kane on our bench in BGW31) should be easily affordable for everyone, and if we follow the suggested order of transfers, then we will avoid running into cash problems.
Good luck!
Thanks for reading
Navigating upcoming GWs to field a strong team in BGW31. This article was written by Cezary
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Gameweek Tracker GW28-33
great article thank you.
looking for some advice. What four which you pick….
A) ERIKSSEN, STERLING, VARDY, AUBAMEYANG
B) ERIKSSEN, ALBRIGHTON, AUGUERO, AUBAMEYANG
C) RAMSEY, STERLING, KANE, VARDY
D) ALBRIGHTON, RAMSEY, KANE, AGUERO
Feedback would be appreciated.
Is this for a wildcard?
Yeah, my intention was always to play gw28 and hopefully catch up on mini league rival before BGW and DGW. currently 35 points behind.
If you haven’t played it already, would strongly recommend saving it for now, 35 points is nothing through the DGW’s and it will definitely be of better use later on.
If you’ve already played it or can’t be swayed, I would probably go with c, but not with Ramsey. Just remember GW31 blanks coming up so make sure you have a plan.
DON’T PLAY IT!
Would be my advice
I’ve already played it, i wasn’t happy with my defence, Jones, alonso and otamendi, taking up too much cash.
although auger scored 4 at the weekend my intention was to replaced him with kane for upcoming fixtures. sorting out my defense allows me to upgrade wilson to vardy and upgrade goalkeepers as I had adrian and elliot.
if i go with option C i could retain arnuatovic instead of bringing in ramsey, i wanted an arsenal mid but can’t afford mkhi.
despite playing it i think i can still utilise having decent team going forward, decent team for gw31 and saving transfer to allow me to prepare for double gameweeks.
Saloba,
If you’ve played it already, I’d just pick players to earn value for the moment eg. Aguero, Hazard etc
We’ll be able to give you much better advice after the FA Cup fixtures because it will change a lot depending on results.
cheers mr bean, that what i have tried to do by signing the likes of naughton and naugton and getting rid of otamendi and also. Thanks
What a beauuuuuty Hazard
I want to kill him……..
Bean’s not that bad an egg
Is this some kind of culinary joke?? 😀
Wasn’t intended to be but now you mention it….
Christensen cs and a bp ffs
Any new on Alonso????
Alleged slight hammy now possibly downgraded to an ankle knock. Don’t seem to know their arse from their elbow down there
Seriously though, smells fishy. I’m suspecting a hammy which isn’t being announced for some reason. But could be wrong.
Or maybe both, apparently…
Who is most nailed out of Lowton/Long/Taylor (Burnley)?
Looking for a defender under 4.4 (for 3rd defender spot)! Doesn’t have to be Burnley but thought at least one Burnley defender would be wise.
Hi Sanchez – I’m not an expert in Burnley’s defense but Lowton, Mee, Tarkowsky, Ward was teir initial template that than got mixed up when injuries to Lowton, Ward and Tarks came along, so Lowton I’d say, between the three you mentioned.
Hey DMC, have you looked at your CL team yet? Unlimited transfers (sounds great until you try putting a team together)!
No I haven’t Sanchez! But I should and fast given that I’m away tomorrow! Neymar is probably the first name on my sheet though. Problem is Ronaldo is back scoring and Messi is Messi and surely you can’t have the 3?
RM (Ronnie) vs PSG (Neymar); Chelski vs Barca (Messi). You reckon they have a better chance than e.g Aguero (Basel vs City), Lewandoski (Bayern vs Besiktas), Salah/Firmino (Porto vs Liverpool) considering the fixtures? (Though Porto are in good form). Ronnie, Neymar, Messi can score a few against any team for sure which makes it really tough to decide. 😮
Yeah just looked at the fixtures and Bayern is getting hard to ignore. Has the form too. Porto are not the best team ever (they lack flair a bit) but they are tough to break. That said, if anyone can do it Salah is the one and they have trouble in defense (they are without both CB). Staying away Juve/Spurs. City is favorite but who is pep going to play in two weeks time is anybody’s guess. Probably won’t buy them either.
Yeah just noticed City is actually tomorrow! Need to reassess their assets then. Bernardo could be a good shout here. Man Utd could be good for cleanies and Alexis would be a promising bet if he was listed as a mid (and not priced so high). Shaktar-Roma smells goals so someone from the home team may prove smart.
Nice mini-analysis there, DMC. Just read about Porto’s injury/suspension problems. Thanks for the heads up on that!
Ok, so this is what I came to right now. Decided to ignore defenders / take risks with them actually featuring to some extent, but still with two Bayern in there, including GK, it could be worse. The second leg may hurt a bit in that respect, especially if Danilo doesn’t play. Hopefully I can see the line ups tomorrow. Good to go? Any obvious moves I’m missing aside from both the elephants not in the room, Ronie and Leo? Cheers
DMC — you forgot to upload your team, mate. But will take a look asa you do!
Well that was daft…
Here it is!
Cheers mate
Nice/strong selections, DMC. You’ve defo hit the form/goal-scoring players at the various price points and positions (e.g. KdB, Robben, Hummels, Marlos, Reyes, etc). My team is pretty similar in terms of players from the same team (same front 3 for now and similar mids and dfs tho I might go w/ a Barca defender [Semedo or Umtiti]). Looks good/good luck!
Tho who the hell is Gudino?!?
Gudino is this Apoel sub GK that costs 3.7 and will be rotting in my bench for the time being. Trying to get away with the Bayern cleanie.
Yeah, I’ve left cheap/knocked-out players as enablers so can’t criticize that!
Probably Lowton
Or what Kop said!
You said it so much better
Haha, thanks Kop + DMC!! That’s what I thought but got confused looking at who was coming in for the injured one, etc.
Cheers Hazard, saved my week!
So I haven’t got free hit or WC left so GW31 is royally screwed for me! … D’oh!
Not necessarily mate. You just don’t have the luxury of the choice. You’ll probably just be best to see who’s playing and take a mid term view and have half a team that week.