Welcome to Navigating upcoming GWs to field a strong team in BGW31
It’s been a tough FPL season for many of us. The bad news is that it’s about to get even tougher with a number of blank and double GWs to navigate as we slowly reach its final stages. There is good news too though: there is a huge opportunity in those trickier upcoming weeks and those of us who’ll take advantage of it will be the ones who may still find pride in their OR once the dust of this FPL season has finally settled. The first stage of this opportunity has begun already and will end with a very tough BGW31. The purpose of this article is to provide some thoughts on how to manage our FPL teams throughout this stage. Or in other words, to answer the following question:
How can we field 10 players in BGW31 without sacrificing important players with good fixtures on the way and making transfers that are likely to pay off not only in GW31, but also in those that precede it?
In the process of preparing this analysis, I’ve used Ben Crellin’s fabulous spreadsheet and bear in mind that the analysis below does not take into consideration using our WC or FH as a remedy to the difficulties of BGW31.
What do we want to achieve and what’s the set-up?
The facts are as follows:
• The only two games that we can be sure will take place in BGW31 are: Liverpool vs. Watford and Stoke vs. Everton
• WBA face Southampton on February 17th, which means there’s a roughly 50/50 chance that Bournemouth vs. WBA will also take place in BGW31, and we will know that for sure before GW28
• The majority of us have got 4 / 5 FTs left before BGW31 kicks off
And here’s a handful of assumptions for the purpose of this analysis:
• Huddersfield vs. Crystal Palace will take place in BGW31 (77% probability according to betting odds)
• No other games, apart from the ones mentioned above, will take place in BGW31
• In an average active FPL team we will find 4 players from Liverpool, Watford, Stoke, Everton, Huddersfield and Crystal Palace (a quick look at teams in my leagues tells me that these 4 players would probably be recruited from the following ones: Salah, Firmino, Shaqiri/ Choupo-Moting, Richarlison / Doucoure, Walcott, Milivojevic and Quaner / Depoitre)
• We should probably stay away from Watford players, i.e. we might consider keeping them if we already own them, but buying them is not advisable as their fixtures are rather average + they face Liverpool away in BGW31 and it’s hard to see them doing much in that game
Finally, here are the goals we would like to achieve:
• We want to field at least 10 players in BGW31
• We want to avoid getting rid of key players with good fixtures early in the process (e.g. Kane) just for the sake of fielding a strong team in BGW31
• We want to bring in players that make sense for fixtures between the moment we buy them and BGW31, not just for BGW31 (e.g. bringing in Benteke, who has delivered returns in all of his last 5 fixtures, makes perfect sense for BGW31 as Crystal Palace face Huddersfield, but doing so now with 4 tough games ahead of him would be overkill)
• We want to take 0 or 1 hits at most (depends on Bournemouth featuring in BGW31 or not)
Here are fixtures of the teams that we either know or assume will feature in BGW31:
Before GW27
My decision here was to bring in Walcott. He’s done well at Everton so far, seems nailed, plus has arguably got the tastiest fixture. Some other interesting options were: Firmino, VVD and Shaqiri.
Who did I get rid of? For me that was Son who might face rotation soon and seems to have a lost at least a bit of his previous form.
Before GW28
This is a good time to bring in VVD. With him on board, Liverpool should tighten up at the back and with two homes against struggling WHU and Newcastle, VVD offers more than just Clean Sheet potential. Some other interesting options are: Firmino (to replace Aguero who’s got 2 tough fixtures in GW28 and GW29) and Coleman (depending on his latest injury prognosis).
At this stage it could be wise to replace our Chelsea defender (for me it’s Alonso) as they face both Manchester teams in 2 subsequent GWs, as well as could be rotated given Chelsea’s Champions League duties. Another possible candidate for exile would be Otamendi. He hasn’t delivered attacking returns since GW16 and his CS potential is limited with Arsenal and Chelsea being his GW28 and GW29 rivals. However, if we’re not facing budget pressures then we could get rid of any of our cheaper defenders.
Before GW29
Apart from Watford, whom we at least at this stage assume we want to avoid, and Liverpool, the other teams have rather difficult fixtures. So – unless we own less than 3 Liverpool players at that point – our wisest move might be rolling the transfer.
Before GW30
Here, as a 2 GW punt, we might consider bringing in whoever’s been prolific in Everton’s or Huddersfield’s attack/ midfield over the previous few weeks as both teams have two great fixtures in GW30 and GW31. However, the problem with forwards is that 2 of our spots are likely to be occupied by Kane and Aguero/ Firmino, whereas the third one is probably taken by Wilson. Selling Kane and Aguero before games against Bournemouth and Stoke respectively would not be smart, whereas we want to keep Firmino for BGW31. Wilson is a question mark today, but the good news is that at that point we will now whether he features in BGW31 or not. If he doesn’t – it’s a great time to sell as Bournemouth face Spurs in GW30. Alternatively, if none of Everton’s and Huddersfield’s forwards and mids seem convincing enough or we don’t have a free spot in those formations, perhaps Coleman or Pickford could be the answer to our worries.
We get rid of whoever has a tricky fixture in GW30 (e.g. Lingard, Pogba, Jones or de Gea) and whom we can potentially bring back on our WC without losing too much TV.
Before BGW31
If we managed to roll the transfer in GW29, then we should have 2 FTs at our disposal at that point. Given that Crystal Palace face Huddersfield, this might be a good moment to double up on their attacking assets, e.g. Benteke & Zaha, or choose just one of them and either a Crystal Palace defender or another asset that makes sense to us from the other teams that feature in BGW31.
Please note we will be WCing in GW32 or GW33, so we can even get rid of Kane or Aguero at that point, and bring them back on our WC. In fact, if our WC is still intact, then it doesn’t really matter which blanking player we get rid of, as long as we don’t lose too much TV that way.
If it turns out Bournemouth will not feature in BGW31 or we do not have 4 BGW31 players in our team today, then in order to field 10 players we will need to take a hit. Whether that makes sense is hard to predict today and I suggest we deal with this question when the time comes.
BGW31 team
Here are examples of teams that we could field if we follow the advice provided in this analysis (new players in bold):
If Bournemouth & WBA feature in BGW31:
Goalkeeper (blanks) – VVD (WAT), Daniels (WBA), Coleman (sto) – Salah (WAT), Walcott (sto), Shaqiri/ Choupo-Moting (EVE), Zaha (hud) – Firmino (WAT), Wilson (WBA), Benteke (hud)
If Bournemouth & WBA do not feature in BGW31 (-4 hit):
Pickford (sto) – VVD (WAT), Coleman (sto), Defender (blanks) – Salah (WAT), Walcott (sto), Shaquiri/ Choupo-Moting (EVE), Zaha (hud), Richarlison (liv) – Firmino (WAT), Benteke (hud)
Final remarks
If we follow this process, then we should be able to tick off all of our goals (of course, baring injuries and other unexpected disasters):
• we field 10 players in BGW31
• we don’t sacrifice important players too early in the process
• we don’t take more than 1 hit
• and, perhaps most importantly, if we follow the transfer flow suggested in this analysis, then the players we bring in will be looking at the following fixtures at the time of purchase:
• Walcott (before GW27): CP, wat, bur, BRI, sto
• VVD (before GW28): WHU, NEW, mu, WAT
• Coleman (before GW30): BRI, sto
• Benteke & Zaha (before BGW31): hud
…which justifies those transfers not only with BGW31 in mind, but also from the perspective of earlier GWs.
Please note that these teams (with premium-priced players such as de Gea or even Kane on our bench in BGW31) should be easily affordable for everyone, and if we follow the suggested order of transfers, then we will avoid running into cash problems.
Good luck!
Thanks for reading
Navigating upcoming GWs to field a strong team in BGW31. This article was written by Cezary
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Gameweek Tracker GW28-33
Morning everyone. Day 2 today! Looks like most had a better fantasy GW than me never mind. Alonso not playing certainly did no help.
Try again with picture
Looking good Smash. I had you pegged as a grumpy old man like myself
no-one is as grumpy as you
You’d give me a run for my money at times
Your consistency is unmatched though
I’ve got to be good at something…
Ha ha that’s probably just how my writing comes across
Hope all goes well Smash , its funny peoples perception of other members from there Grav or writing good luck mate 😉
Or by what they drink 😉
I see you are wearing a great shirt.
Of course
Hey Smash Here’s me and Elle thinking the FF247 sizing is less than generous and there’s you looking good.. ?
That should be a
instead of a ? Still learning how to use my phone 
Ha ha Mito and inittowinit probably did it as a wind up. Cookie was probably on a liquid lunch
Probably!
hahaha
Init and Mito are not the fat fingers running Horse’s phone. 😉
I got piano fingers Mito just get confused with which ones to press. ?
Morning Smash, good to see you wearing the uniform!!
Yeah Alonso annoyed a few of us last night, I’m amazed I didn’t boot him out by now…..the only thing holding me back is all the European & Cup matches between now and the next GW. Will no doubt lose some cash as he’ll drop a couple of time between now and GW28 but better to make a good transfer than buy some who gets injured before he plays another league game!
Hope today goes ok mate, thinking of you pal.
Yeah had to showcase the T Shirt at some point. Yeah was shocked he did not play but 2 weeks till next game so sure he will be back by then. All a bit strange though
We shall see – he has FA Cup & Champions League before then, he clearly won’t play all the games plus Conte will want to play his new left back at some point. He’s almost certain to depart my team unless something else comes up.
Yeah wait and see job I guess
Hey Smash hope you get better bud. Good week for most. I hope you did well this gameweek. Just know that we here on this fpl site are here to support you every step of the way.
Thanks Eagle.
Good to hear from you Smash! I bought him for a hit 2 weeks ago… hasn’t played a single minute since and may well be sold before he ever does
Such things happen and they don’t normally bother me but I was actually looking forward to watching the game last night but that was well and truly ruined. Sulked about it that much I didn’t even know the final score until it came on the radio this morning!
That sounds like my sort of move. I got 6 points from him that’s it. Was looking forward to watching the Chelsea game all day and Alonso not playing was certainly a downer when I had one point coming off the bench
one point off the bench is riches, Smash. I had Simpson with -1. And I already had Maguire on the pitch
Morning Smash…
Good to see that smile on your face, mate !!
Hope all is well !
Keep us informed on your progress pls, we are all here cheering for you !
Thanks HL will do. Yeah got to try and smile and just get on with it
Looking good in that T-shirt Smash! I had you as a lot older and more Costa like in my head!! Weird how we all build up an image of the people on here, they are rarely as we imagine!
Hope the treatment wasn’t too bad, keep on keeping on mate!
Cheers Rosco. Yeah you can see by my history I’ve played the game for some time so started fairly young. I probably do look slightly young for my age. Ha ha yeah the Costa image
Looking young for your age becomes a good thing as we actually get old I find!
Smash, great to hear from you mate! Like the representing
All the best buddy.
Cheers Matt
Lookin good Smash! Wishing you good health and green arrows! Hang in there buddy.
Smash, glad to see you’re looking healthy, even more than I’d imagined! Diego Costa being your icon gave me some illogical preconceptions…
I’m sure some good planning will get you back on track in FPL terms. Aguero’s damage’s likely over.
You’ll be laughing in almost every sense soon! Stay strong.
Thanks. Yeah Aguero and Jesus have trolled me all season. Yeah think it’s the back end of the week where I will look a bit worse
Yeah I can only really see Costa now! You’ve ruined another of my fantasies Smash
Best wishes pal I hope today went well. Looking great fella. :thumbup:
Ok Smash, I know your FPL team is not doing well but you didn’t have to take to a hospital facility!!
Just messing around mate. Our thoughts are with you and it takes extreme class to wear that in such situation. You are the man! Take care.
Morning Smasher, looking good in the company attire, mines way to small for me. Wouldn’t like to think what Roscos’ image of me is.
Yeah the image perception of individuals is always interesting
via GIPHY
Bit like this….
That’s more like it lol
Hey Smash, I’m a bit late here, but best of luck buddy and keep positive.
Ive met Elle and trust me Mito’s was a lot closer! Very close, in fact.
Silvers game me the picture of Elle.
:big-lol:
Morning everyone. This may have already been asked but just want to reassure myself. The teams we should be looking at to bring in over the next few weeks are:
Liverpool, Everton, Stoke, Palace, Bournemouth, Huddersfield and Watford?? Anyone I’m leaving out?
Have you read the above article Matt?
As of now the only teams guaranteed to feature in GW31 are Liverpool Everton, Stoke & Watford.
Depending on results in the cup this weekend there may well be another couple of teams playing in 31. The most likely scenarios are;
Huddersfield will play Palace if United knock Huddersfield out of the cup
Bournemouth will play West Brom if Southampton knock West Brom out of the cup
I did and that’s where I got confused because everyone starting talking about Hudd and Bournemouth haha. Now I understand what they were on about
I think you meant Watford there in the guaranteed with a game instead of Palace Kop.
Damn Liverpool fans!
2 Liverpool fans walked into a bar…
I hope Cezary doesn’t read this comment, otherwise this could be Matt flying.
via GIPHY
Unlimited Fantasy UEFA CL Transfers.
How’s my team looking ?
How much is Rodriguez at Bayern? Watched them several times lately, he is playing very well and he has a lot of the ball, plus Kimmich is a RB for them, so not sure if that is ideal. Not sure Sule will start with Hummels and Boateng ready. Think I prefer Lewandowski over Neymar, but is not like Madrid defend well, so that could workout.
Hey Mito, how’s your team shaping up? I still can’t decide on strikers tho I’m leaning towards Lewanbrewski, Salah and Aguero/Messi/Ronnie/Neymar. Haha.
The thing with Neymar is that he can’t stop scoring atm. It’s just incredible and albeit Real being a different team when it comes to Champions League they’re are still good for conceding a goal or two. That’s my preference anyway atm but can’t argue against going Messi or Ronnie along with Robert and Mohamed.
Oh and how likely/unlikely is Tolisso to start? He scored a few in the group stages (along with Kimmich) and is relatively inexpensive though it seems there’s no room with the likes of Vidal, Javi Martínez, James Rodríguez, Coman, Müller, Robben, Lewandowski prolly in the starting eleven.
Yeah would like to fit him in but he hasn’t started the last bundesliga game. If we were assured he starts I would definitely consider him.
@FC, hoping to make a team, I have missed so many deadlines that I am not that bothered with it, but if I get a moment later I will take a look.
Currently answering some questions for a Bore Off! Which will be a double edition. Cookie on the mic asking the questions for this double edition.
Haha, love “Bore Off!” Look forward to it!!
That you mention bore off in the same post as you did to UCL fantasy says it all! Get that team in man!
Hahaha
Looks strong Bigpopz (though Sule might have competition for that position, not sure). Good luck!
Danilo is injured and Sule has lost his place, at least in the German league. The rest looks good. I’d play more Bayern attack if possible. 3 from city attack may be a bit overkill, but yeah if you can confirm lineups I suppose you’re good to go there with those 3.
Lacazette just had knee surgery will be out six weeks.
Here’s what I’ve cobbled together ahead of tonight.
Anyone?
Hey GP! Apart from Danilo who might be out w/ a calf injury (and not sure how nailed Trent Alexander-Arnold is), looks good! Mighty tempted to go w/ Messi(/Suarez) and Ronaldo (coming off a hatty last game) myself… Picking forwards = really tough this round!! Good luck!
Didn’t know that about Danilo. Cheers mate.
TAA has been used, and scored, in the CL so may risk him.
I’ll see who else I can manage in midfield. Perhaps three Porto is too much anyway.
I’d expect TAA to start tomorrow
Thanks Kop.
Hearing Gomez will, so its take your pick. Noticed that Clyne has travelled aswell, he wont start though.
GP – Danilo is out from what I’ve heard (they may be hiding him to ilude Klopp, but that’s unlikely) and even if he wasn’t he’s a DMC so not the best fantasy asset.
Petretta is not in the XI for tonight and he was playing OOP as left back anyway so sell him.
Rest looks good though I don’t know why would you bother and invest in the Besiktas GK. Just sayin.
DMC
Had Fabri him since GW1 mate.
Yeah but he wasn’t playing Bayern, that’s what I meant. Anyway, what’s done is done and best of luck.
Anyone gone with Higuain?
Understand but without taking apart the rest, thought I’d just leave him.