Promoted Teams Analysis – Luton

Promoted Teams Analysis – Luton

Welcome to Promoted Teams Analysis – Luton

Here we go! Another season and another article about a new team. I love doing these articles, and to be perfectly honest, they are the ones I enjoy doing the most during the season. Not that I don’t like Tips, Captain Picks or anything else but I find this type of article helps me get into the fantasy mood and also gives me the chance to learn about new players coming into the league. Luton are an unknown quantity to the majority of us, so I thought I’d give you some history and background. I do love my history… after all I am a history teacher!

Whilst doing my research I discovered Luton Town were created amidst some secrecy and fighting… love a bit of drama! The secretly formed “Luton Town” club were turned down and instead the public just created the Luton Town we know today. They are nicknamed The Hatters due to Luton being a historically hat making trade town and their crest features a pretty little hat sitting on top. The club has been around since 1885, has battled financial difficulties and yo-yoed up and down the leagues. They may not be big dogs in terms of football but they do hold the honour of being the first team in the south of England to turn professional. In their 138 years of existence, the men who play in a beautiful orange kit have only won a single major honour which came in the form of a League Cup in 1988 beating Arsenal 3-2.

For me anyway, I am delighted Luton have won promotion to the Premier League for the first time in their history as they have become a Cinderella story after spending five years (2009-14) in non-League football and have risen up through the leagues over the past decade to claim their place as the 51st team to play in the Premier League. I, for one, hope the clock is not about to strike midnight and Cinderella can enjoy the ball.

Luton have largely gained recognition for their unique ground, Kenilworth Road (The Kenny). It is now the smallest ground ever in the Premier League with just over 10,000 capacity. We all know it for those away end pictures of the entrance taking away fans through someone’s back garden! VAR should be quick enough in Luton as refs can just pop into Mary’s kitchen for a cuppa and rewind the Sky coverage to check things out!

With the old style ground The Kenny offers, these big Premier League teams might find the atmosphere tough to get used to. This could be seen earlier in the year when Chelsea visited in March for the FA Cup 5th round. Luton went ahead 2-1 before Chelsea had to fight back to a 3-2 win. Is this something The Hatters can take advantage of this year and claim some scalps?

How might they claim these scalps other than the nature of their stadium? Well the tactics of Ryan Edwards could do that. Edwards took over from Nathan Jones when he left last November to take over at Southampton. Edwards uses a 3-5-2 formation with wingbacks who are very involved in the attack. I have learned that the formation can turn to 5-3-2, if playing deep, or 3-4-1-2 with one of the mids pushing up into a front three almost. What could be a big issue is the lack of top-flight experience in their squad. Last season they had Marvellous Nakamba on loan from Aston Villa but they have lost his experience so this is something Edwards will have to try and change over the summer transfer window. Time will tell if he is successful in this crusade.

Luton are described as a physical, well-organised team that do well at set-pieces. They like to be direct but have a passing style to mix things up and keep opponents on their toes. Edwards sets up his players with a high pressing style to have the ball in attacking areas as much as possible. The two big strong men up top, Carlton Morris and Elijah Adebayo, hold up the ball and bring the wingbacks and others around them into play.

While I am saying all this, we can’t forget that Edwards came into the team in November, has not had a full season, has only had around 30 games with his side so might bring in players this summer to put his own stamp on the team. Something I don’t see changing though is Luton trying to remain tight at the back they were the second-best defence in the Championship last term with only Burnley bettering them.

Interestingly, considering most post-promotion focus has been on their small, unfashionable stadium, Luton were better away from Kenilworth Road for both points and goals conceded. No team allowed their hosts to score less often (18). They scored less goals away from home but gained more points on the road. They are a tough team to nail where the points will come from as the Premier League is a big step up defensively from the Championship and Carlton Morris is the main offensive outlet. Possibly a wait and see on Luton but we shall dig deeper below.

Luton have been handed a generally nice welcome to life in the big league as they avoid all of last season’s top five in their opening 10 games which could allow them to develop a nice foundation if they want to stay up this year. Everyone and their mother predict Luton to finish 20th but if we learned anything from AFC Richmond, don’t count out the little guy!

Formation – 3-5-2
Morris – Adebayo
Doughty – Clark – Mpanzu – Berry – Ogbene
Bell – Lockyer – Osho
??

Goalkeeper and defence

I’m not entirely sure what to say here as Luton have two big starting spots with massive question marks. They are right wing back and, crucially, goalkeeper! Goalkeeper Ethan Horvath was on loan to The Hatters last season and played all but two league games. He had a save rate of 74.2% which made him the fourth best keeper in the league. He was vital in Luton’s Route One football as his goal kicks would set up potential scoring opportunities. Should his move be made permanent, Horvath could be a £4.5 contender as he is sure to get save points and also plays behind a sturdy enough defence. This is definitely something we need to keep an eye on as that no.1 jersey is unknown right now!

In the predicted formation I put above, I stuck Ogbene as the right wing back which I will discuss under his section but last season saw Cody Drameh come in on loan from Leeds. Drameh came into Luton during January and went straight into the lineup. He was involved in set plays, attacks and created a chance every 41 minutes. He didn’t take many shots himself but took one every second appearance or thereabouts. If he re-signs then I expect him to start at RWB with Ogbene becoming a sub and back up striker.

The Luton captain is centreback Tom Lockyer (£4.5), you might remember him from his scary collapse in the play-off final back in May. The Welshman collapsed due to an atrial fibrillation which the NHS describe as “an irregular and often abnormally fast heart rate”. He has been given the all clear and had an operation to fix it which Lockyer himself says means “it shouldn’t happen again”. Fans and teammates alike will be hoping that is true as Lockyer is key for Edwards having won several player of the year awards at Luton last season and means he should be guaranteed to start. The captain is one of the main threats from set-pieces with 26 of his 32 efforts all coming from free kicks and corners. He scored four goals and an assist with those efforts. He ranked third for clearances and fifth for blocks in the Championship so should mean bonus points whenever Luton get a clean sheet.

I will also mention Amari’i Bell due to him being what we all covet in FPL… a starting 4.0 mil defender! Bell was the left-sided centre-back for The Hatters last term but did slot into LWB every once in awhile. He started 46 of Luton’s 49 games getting one goal and one assist. He isn’t the most prolific of attack-minded defenders particularly compared to Doughty, Lockyer and other centre-back Osho (£4.5). If it wasn’t for his price, I wouldn’t really be interested but for 4.0 mil he will be in most teams come GW1. Although Luton have just signed a centreback from Barnsley by the name of Mads Andersen (also £4.0). Keep an eye on friendlies to see who gets the nod.

The player I am most interested in from Luton is left wingback, Alfie Doughty (£4.5). He’s played in a number of positions from left winger to left back so a left wing back is the best of both worlds. Doughty was a big part of their attacks last season and became a favourite of Edwards after his appointment. Luton’s 3-5-2 formation can help the wingback be a nice option for managers. The way Luton play the wingbacks get involved in a lot of the play and particularly the attack. Doughty was the 2nd best for Luton key passes last season with the other wing back, James Bree* being the best. My favourite thing about Doughty’s stats are that he only appeared in 31 of the 46 regular season after not making his first appearance until game 15. In that time, he got 2 goals and 5 assists. He likes to shoot with 32 shots last season making him joint fourth for shots taken which is pretty remarkable! Doing the maths he takes a shot every 76 minutes so you’re almost guaranteed a shot per game from him. Doughty gets to share set-pieces so is probably the best defensive option for the Hatters. *Bree has since left the club so there is need for a new right wingback and I will actually go into more detail further down but the signing of Ogbene could give manager Edwards that right wingback he wants but I’m not sure if Ogbene will end up being used there. Just something to look at over the preseason friendlies so maybe we can get a budget Trent-Robbo but probably a much less potent duo… so the new Coleman and Baines?

Midfield

Honestly, I’m not going to say much here as there really isn’t much appeal from an FPL perspective. The goals do not come from midfield. In fact, no midfielder scored more than three goals. Hell, Tom Lockyer scored more than any midfielders. Attacks largely come from the wingbacks and the goals are scored by the front two. There isn’t really anyone I’d be interested in the centre. We will have to keep an eye on preseason to see if anyone emerges or who Edwards buys in the market but everything I’ve read and watched for this article never mention any midfielders. It’s all about the defenders and strikers!

Forward

Looking at all the offensive stats, Luton only scored 57 goals in the Championship and this puts them as one of the lowest scoring promoted teams. They ranked as the joint 8th highest team for goals. They were also eighth for shots inside the box but 11th for actual shots on target which isn’t great. I mentioned earlier how Edwards has a direct, high press with long pass style of play. He wants the team to get the ball into shooting positions as soon as possible. Putting this altogether with the looking at player goal stats, it doesn’t bode well for goals galore in the top flight.

The only player to reach double digits is Carlton Morris (£5.5). This is only Morris’ 2nd season with Luton after a fantastic debut season for The Hatters, scoring 20 out of the 57 goals. This made him the 3rd top scorer in the Championship. His 20 goals do exceed his xG which was only 15 so this does two things for me. Positively, he’s able to make the most of the few chances he gets which will be a benefit in the Prem. Negatively, it means he exceeded his xG and might have overperformed. We will have to see what happens but we can all agree he won’t make it to 20 goals this year. He also grabbed 7 assists so he was involved in 47% of Luton’s goals last term. He was involved in more than twice the amount of any of his teammates with fellow striker, Elijah Adebayo (£5.0), getting 13 goal involvements. Morris has brilliant underlying stats too with over 100 shots in the box and 53 key passes. The key passes were 3rd best in the team behind the previously mentioned wingbacks. Morris could also be on penalties as he took the last one and scored. Woodrow and Adebayo took the previous two and missed so will Morris stay as the pen taker? A word of warning, though: he does like a yellow card, having been booked on 11 occasions in the campaign just gone.

Adebayo is another Luton player without Premier League experience as he never played for Fulham in the top-flight. Unlike Morris, Adebayo did the opposite with his xG, only scoring 7 goals compared to the 12.9 expected from him. He had a bit of a drop off from the year before as he got 16 in the 21/22 season. Adebayo had a huge aerial threat with being 6ft 4in so the Route One football really makes use of the tall striker (Morris is 6ft1 aswell). He and Morris were ranked third and second for headed efforts in the Championship last season, as well as joint-first for shots in the six-yard box.

Chiedozie Ogbene (£5.0) is a lovely little signing for the newly promoted side. He has joined as a free agent after leaving Rotherham United who got relegated to League One. Ogbene is a solid player from what I’ve seen of him in a green jersey. Did I mention he’s Irish? Of course, he’s brilliant! He may have been born in Nigeria but we have adopted him and quite like him on the Green Isle after he became the first African to represent the Republic. Last season he had 13 goal contributions with 9 goals and 4 assists, tying him with new teammate Adebayo. He generally plays as a winger on either side, mainly on the right. However, I have seen him play the odd time as a right wing back. I did mention earlier that Luton were looking for a replacement for James Bree and Cody Drameh and this could end up being Ogbene. If this does end up being the case then having a forward play as right wingback is not the OOP we like in FPL.

All that being said my top three FPL prospects for the newest entrants into Premier League history are:
1. Alfie Doughty
2. Carlton Morris
3. Tom Lockyer

Thanks for reading Promoted Teams Analysis – Luton. This article was written by Matt X.

Follow @MattyMcveigh