The Differentials – FPL Fantasy Premier League

While most Fantasy Football mini-league battles are usually decided on the big issues such as captain choices over the course of the season, sometimes the closer battles are won by one under-utilised element: the differential. The differential is the player that is uncommon in the vast majority of teams, and has the potential to give you those additional points – even just the odd cheeky goal or clean sheet – that will see you steadily rising up the overall rankings and in your mini-leagues. It’s maybe not the player you bank on, on a game-weekly basis but rather when the time arises and has the potential to reward your bravado… Looking at the overall leaders, one can see the mainstream approach is to bank on the likes of Seamus Coleman, Eden Hazard and Luis Suarez – with good reason too as they seem to be delivering on a weekly basis! However, with many managers trying to differentiate themselves from the pack and outdo their rivals, the popular players won’t be the ones to help!

This differential article will attempt to identify some budget friendly, and rare little Fantasy Football gems that daring managers could try work into their squads. In order to truly exploit the fantasy points prospective of a differential, the very nature of what a differential is has to be defined. For this article a differential will be defined by two clear parameters: “price” and “selected by %”.

First up – the price: Looking at the highest points earners in Fantasy Football so far this season, any player sub-£6m will fit the parameter. Yes a ceiling of £6m is quite a hefty price for a differential, but we’d rather not scrub the bottom of the barrel now would we?

Second – the selected by %: Again, looking at the highest selected players in Fantasy Football, any player that has a selected percentage of 9% and under, will work well within the parameter of a differential. With around 3,131,580 Fantasy Football teams registered – admittedly many ghost teams – the potential for a player with around 9% ownership, or 281,842 teams, is huge in the grand scheme of things.
I will do my very best to work within these parameters but for a number of midfielders and forwards I might just step outside of one of these parameters slightly.

Goalkeepers
Norwich City have had an indifferent season, which finds the Canaries three places above the relegation zone. However, there have been a few shining stars, none greater than their shot stopper John Ruddy. The Canary goalkeeper costs a budget friendly £4.9m, and has an ownership of 2.3%. Ruddy has kept six clean sheets so far this season, which is tied 4th with the likes of Mignolet of Liverpool and more than De Gea of Manchester United. He comes in second with the most saves (71), which is beneficial as those save points soon add up. Norwich City’s next six fixtures are: Everton (A), Hull (H), Newcastle (H), Cardiff (A), Manchester City (H), and West Ham (A). Although Everton, Newcastle and Manchester City offer little in the way of a clean sheet, there is potential for save points, whereas the three remaining fixtures promise the potential clean sheets. This makes great reading for a Fantasy Football manager looking at a rotational-keeper policy for the January Wildcard.

An interesting combination for Ruddy would be with David Marshall of Cardiff, another differential goalkeeper at £4.7m and 5.2% ownership who rotates well with Ruddy for the upcoming dozen or so fixtures. Marshall has kept five clean sheets this season and has made the most saves of all keepers this season with 81. The upcoming fixtures for Cardiff include visits by West Ham, Norwich, and Aston Villa, with trips to both Manchester Clubs and Swansea. The home fixtures will provide Marshall with a great chance to add to his tally of five clean sheets.

Newcastle had been on a decent run of form until their encounter with Arsenal, and a shock defeat to West Brom. The Magpies will, undoubtedly, be on a mission to rectify their season. Their goalkeeper Tim Krul comes in at a reasonable £5.3m (Ownership 6.6%) with six clean sheets to his name. Krul is amongst the top 10 goalkeepers in terms of saves, and those who’ve watched Newcastle can see that he has at times single-handedly saved them. Although Newcastle welcome Manchester City to St James’ Park, the following fixtures are more appealing: West Ham (A), Norwich (A), Sunderland (H), with more difficult fixtures of Chelsea (A) and Tottenham (H) to follow. However having already kept both Chelsea and Tottenham scoreless this season, the return fixtures may bear fruit for them.

Defenders
The next differential is Chelsea’s Spanish right-back Cesar Azpilicueta. Azpilicueta has played in nine of the last ten matches for the Blues, and with the injury to first choice Branislav Ivanovic, it seems the Spaniard’s starting berth is guaranteed for the short term. Coming in at a budget price of £5.3m, Azpilicueta is the cheapest route into the Chelsea defence. With an ownership of 2.0%, he is also a major differential for those willing to take the risk. Azpilicueta fits into the Mourinho game plan of having his full-backs get forward, and has the potential to provide assists, he was able to provide as many as six assists in the 2012/2013 season. In the short-term Chelsea have a number of tough fixtures but as they proved recently against Arsenal, they are more than capable of shutting up shop when they need to.

Cardiff City have managed to keep five clean sheets this season. A lot of that success is down to the efforts of goalkeeper David Marshall as mentioned above. Additionally, praise has also been placed on the young shoulders of central defender Steven Caulker. The youngster left Spurs for Cardiff in a pursuit of first-team football to improve his chances of making the English squad for the World Cup this year. Caulker is priced at £5.2m with an ownership of 6.1%. Although the most expensive route into the Cardiff backline he has already scored twice this season and has double the amount of bonus points of any of his defensive colleagues.

Joel Ward has been garnering a lot of praise from his manager at Crystal Palace. Pulis has shifted Ward into the midfield for the Eagles’ recent games, which will prove popular for his suitors as his more advanced role bodes well for his goal threat. Ownership of 4.4% and priced at only £4.1m, Ward is the second cheapest route into a Palace defence that has kept three clean sheets in their last five home matches at Selhurst Park, with two clean sheets in their last five away games. A total of five clean sheets in the last ten matches is pretty decent for a defender priced at just £4.1m. Crystal Palace face Tottenham (A), Stoke (H), Hull (H), Arsenal (A), West Brom (H), Everton (A), in their next six fixtures. This run of fixtures – apart from possibly Spurs and the Gunners – has the potential to provide a good points haul for the young Eagle, especially considering the three teams visiting Selhurst Park only have a total of 54 goals in their last 60 matches between them (22, 19, 23 respectively).

Hull City have turned their home ground, the KC Stadium, into somewhat of a fortress. The Tigers have kept six clean sheets this season, all of them at home. Thus, for those managers looking for a cheap 4th or 5th defender, the rotational strength of Hull at the KC is tempting. Curtis Davies has missed only one game this season, featuring in all of Hull’s shutouts. The defender comes in at a budget-friendly £4.6m (ownership 3.0%). Davies has made a total of 43 tackles, 16 shot blocks and 48 interceptions in his 19 games, with a massive 147 clearances for the Tigers which as we know all go a long way to contributing to bonus point allocations. Alongside him, fresh from injury is James Chester. Although Chester has less impressive statistics, he did miss eight matches earlier in the season. This is nothing to be concerned over, as he has started the last seven matches – bagging a goal against Chelsea in the process. Chester comes in at an even cheaper £3.9m, with an ownership of 4.7%.

Laurent Koscielny might not sound like the usual differential, but coming in at £5.5m, with an ownership of just 7.4%, Koscielny is the cheapest regular route into the Arsenal defence that has kept nine clean sheets – the most in the league this season. Koscielny has featured in eight of those shutouts. The Frenchman is also a bonus point magnet, having accrued as many as ten this season – four in the last two games! With Arsenal’s next four fixtures being Aston Villa (A), Fulham (H), Southampton (A) and Crystal Palace (H), Koscielny is bound to increase his already impressive points haul.

Midfielders
Much spoken about in recent times is the form of one Cardiff City Bluebird – or Red Dragon, if Emperor Tan has his way – is midfielder Jordon Mutch. Priced at an attractive £4.6m, and an ownership of only 3.4%, the youngster exploded onto the scene with an absolute screamer off the left foot against Fulham earlier in the season. Since then, Mutch has played in every game and bagged himself a further three goals and three assists, which is mightily impressive considering Cardiff languish one spot above relegation. Although all seems chaotic at the Cardiff City Stadium with Emperor Tan firing Malky Mackay, the appointment of ex-Manchester United forward Ole Gunnar Solskjaer might just steady the ship. Even though Mutch is yellow-flagged with a hamstring injury, he will, in my opinion, be at the forefront of their attacking threat. The upcoming fixtures of West Ham (H), Manchester United (A), Manchester City (A), Norwich (H), Swansea (A), and Aston Villa (H) are a mixed bag. However, apart from visits to both Manchester clubs, Cardiff City will take heart looking at those remaining fixtures.

Another midfielder that has the differential tag is Stoke’s Oussama Assaidi, who costs £4.7m and is owned by only 0.2% of teams this season. Although Stoke are definitely struggling on the goal front, the Moroccan has three goals in his last six matches from just eleven shots – including the beauty he scored against Chelsea at the Britannia. Assaidi won’t feature in GW21, as his loan agreement marks him ineligible to face his parent club Liverpool. After that, Stoke visit Crystal Palace, Sunderland, and Southampton, while Manchester United and Swansea visit the Britannia. There is potential for Assaidi to try and prove his worth as he hopes to help Stoke remain in the Premier League and prove to Brendan Rodgers he has a future back at Liverpool.

Another budget combination coming out of the KC Stadium are Jake Livermore (£4.6m, 1.9% ownership) and Tom Huddlestone (£4.9m, 2.7% ownership). The early season praise and focus was on Robbie Brady, but with the midfielder having been side-lined with numerous niggles for a while now, it is these two who get the nod for the differential list. Livermore has a goal and assist in his last four matches, while Huddlestone has a goal and two assists in his last two – and thanks to that goal he has also had a haircut! With many commentators believing that Livermore has been a fundamental figure in Hull City’s success, even garnering praise from Huddlestone who has labelled Livermore as “blossoming into the complete midfielder”. Both these options are perfect differentials for the cheap 5th midfielder role, especially when playing at home and it should also be noted that Huddlestone has the lion’s share of set pieces. We should also highlight that Livermore will miss the match against Tottenham (GW 24, as per his loan deal) and there is also the slight possibility of him being recalled back to Spurs since the change of management at White Hart Lane. Which might not be a bad thing if he can get a game there!

Scott Parker, yes I am serious. The ex-Chelsea, -Newcastle, -West Ham, and –Spurs midfielder was never really recognised for his attacking threat. However, in recent times at a struggling Fulham, they’ll take their attacking potential from wherever it comes. Parker is tied 4th in terms of points for an outfield player under £4.6m, costing just £4.4m, with an ownership of just 1.9%. In his last two games, Parker has bagged a goal and two assists, with a total of 18 points. The current trend of high scoring midfielders might make it just perfect for a budget-friendly 5th choice midfielder to help. Although Fulham have been playing poorly of late, Parker as we have just highlighted, has been a shining light for them and at just £4.4m he warrants some consideration.

Although he does not fit both the parameters I outlined above, I do believe it is worth mentioning, Spurs’ attacking midfielder Christian Eriksen. The Danish star is valued at £7.2m, and has only been snapped up by 3.1% of Fantasy Football managers. Since the appointment of Tim Sherwood at White Hart Lane, Eriksen has started every game and done so brilliantly. Two goals and an assist in his last three matches, including the match winner at Old Trafford, shows the form the Dane might be coming into. Eriksen has also been given a fair share of the set pieces, and with fixtures to come against Crystal Palace (H), Swansea (A), Manchester City (H), Hull City (A), Everton (H), and Newcastle (A), the new attacking mind-set of Spurs has the potential for Eriksen to be a good source of fantasy points.

With the unfortunate demise of Theo Walcott, one player who definitely is a differential in terms of ownership (2.5%), but has a price tag that will damage your bank account, is Arsenal’s Santi Cazorla (£9.5m). Many will jump ship to Mesut Ozil but this guy deserves consideration, especially given his performances in recent matches – the left-footed goal he slammed home against Spurs in the FA Cup 3rd round was a beauty. Although the Arsenal midfield is a bit of a minefield with all the options available, Cazorla has featured in all but two of the last dozen fixtures. He has the lion’s share of corners, and plays in a much more advanced role than many midfielders. Arsenal’s striker problems give Santi the opportunity to range forward and he most definitely has the quality to earn big points in the upcoming fixtures, which arguably are the most favourable of all: Aston Villa (A), Fulham (H), Southampton (A), Crystal Palace (H), Liverpool (A), and Manchester United (H). Liverpool and United could cause them problems but Arsenal certainly have the firepower to put them both to the sword.

Forwards
For those Fantasy Football managers looking to shift their formations to rely more on midfielders, the importance of a cheap 3rd striker cannot be understated. J-Rod, or more formally Jay Rodriguez, might just suit that role perfectly. When Pablo Osvaldo arrived at St Mary’s, it was assumed J-Rod would be third choice, however, having played almost every minute of the season for Southampton, he has bagged himself eight goals and two assists, and is the second highest points earner for the Saints. Valued at £6.2m and with an ownership of 9.9% J-Rod is the most popular of all these differentials, but there is a clear reason for that! He should definitely be on your radar when you consider Southampton’s upcoming fixtures: West Brom (H), Sunderland (A), Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Stoke (H), and Hull (A), with Arsenal being the only real detriment to J-Rod’s prospects over the next few weeks.

West Brom’s Saido Berahino could also be the ideal 3rd choice striker for those looking for a differential. Coming in with the staggeringly low price of £4.6m and with an ownership of 1.7%, the Burundi-born, yet junior English-lion, has put in a number of eye-popping performances. Berahino has scored against the defences of West Ham and Newcastle in the last two fixtures, and with Southampton (A), Everton (H), Aston Villa (A), Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A), Chelsea (H) as West Brom’s upcoming fixtures, Berahino might just have the chance to increase his fantasy points haul.

Swansea have been a bit inconsistent this season, and the absence of Michu has played a part in that. The next differential – although slightly out the price bracket – is Michu’s teammate Wilfried Bony. Having not scored since GW12, the Ivorian striker bagged two against Manchester City and scored the winner as Swansea knocked United out of the cup. Indeed Bony is a major differential punt, but it is worth noting that those two goals were absolute screamers. The supply line to Bony is also very effective with the likes of Jonjo Shelvey and Jonathan De Guzman providing the assists. The Swans’ upcoming fixtures of Manchester United (A), Spurs (H), Fulham (H), West Ham (A), Cardiff (H), and Stoke (A), will not scare Bony if he continues the form he was in against Manchester City, where he bossed the Citizens’ defence.

Another differential that is slightly outside of the £6m budget is Newcastle’s Yoan Gouffran. The Frenchman – of whom The Toon have a few, comes in at £6.4m and just 2.1% ownership. Admittedly, writing this article it is surprising to see that a striker with as many as six goals and two assists has not been picked up by more teams looking for a cheaper 3rd choice striker. Within the budget constraint, Gouffran is tied first for the number of bonus points he has picked up (14). Newcastle have a split of favourable and unfavourable fixtures in the next six with games against Manchester City (H), West Ham (A), Norwich (A), Sunderland (H), Chelsea (A), and Spurs (H) in GW26. Gouffran has been on my radar for some time, partnering Loic Remy at times he seems to be in the right place very often to grab a cheeky assist or goal.

Final Comments
Differentials are important for the Fantasy Football manager looking to gain some points on their opponents when the common picks feature in most teams. There are clearly other options and other differentials that can fit into the formation of any team, but I couldn’t go listing them all in one article. Other potential differentials include the likes of Gabby Agbonlahor at Villa, Liverpool’s Skrtel and Coutinho, City’s Nastasic, Welbeck at United, Norwich’s Gary Hooper, Sunderland’s Phil Bardsley and even the enigmatic Emmanuel Adebayor. I hope the picks above along with the analysis may help you unearth a gem or two for your wildcard.

I hope everyone has a good 2014, with a successful January Wildcard – including a number of effective differentials! I know I’ll be looking to exploit the differential tag when I eventually decide to use the Wildcard.

This article was written by Milk and Busquets.