Time for a differential – Fantasy Football Game-week 13

Time for a differential – Fantasy Football Game-week 13

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[/three_fourth]When we sat back and considered who the ultimate cheap differential has been over the years in fantasy football one man stood out head and shoulders above the crowd. Of course he wasn’t a differential for that long but certainly those who were on that early Michu bandwagon were laughing all the way to the fantasy bank. And it seemed only fitting this week to give a nod to the man who coined the phrase ‘finding the next Michu’ as he finally severed ties with Swansea and ultimately our fantasy lives.

And so we thought we’d use the international break to take a look at some current FPL differentials – some players who have flown under the radar and could be of use to managers for a variety of reasons. Firstly, it’s tough to climb the rankings with a template team and bear in mind that the template team doesn’t stay the same all season long. It evolves, new trends are created, early season form turns and new players come to the fore. After all, those who placed their faith in Mesut Ozil may well have been laughed at on the boards, yet he has scored or assisted (ok, mainly assisted) in eight of his eleven game-weeks so far this season, including one goal and eight assists in his last six league matches, which has seen him overtake Alexis Sanchez’s score thus far. For almost 3mln less cash! Secondly, many of you will be planning on getting Sergio Aguero back into your squads and as we know, he doesn’t come cheap. Some have saved the cash, but the majority haven’t, so changes will have to be made so some cheap differentials will also be useful. Let’s go through the names, position by position and hopefully we can dig out some players that will make the difference for you.

Keepers
As our Top Tipster Kop tells me, folk are unlikely to buy a keeper as a differential – but some may, I argued! Whatever your view, it may be that you are looking for a keeper and so we have gone through some less-owned names that will hopefully be of interest to you.

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[/three_fourth]One doesn’t expect to normally see a Chelsea player in a differential article, but this ain’t no normal season and our first differential is Chelsea stand-in keeper Asmir Begovic. With Thibaut Courtois still predicted to be out until mid-to-late December, it’s still possible to take advantage of Begovic. “But they can’t keep a clean sheet” you will say. Well yes, granted, they have only kept two clean sheets all season, but one look at the fixtures on the horizon should give some encouragement that some points at the back are due. Even for Chelsea. Home matches vs Norwich, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Watford all in the next six game-weeks makes Begovic a tempting option. At 5mln he is cheaper than all the Chelsea defenders and his ownership is just 2.1%. The one caveat is of course Courtois’ return and therefore be sure to keep in touch with any news that Mourinho provides. Courtois himself will be a cheap option when he does return – the Belgian is currently 5.2mln and just like Begovic way cheaper than any of the Blues defenders.

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[/three_fourth]Everton’s Tim Howard is our next keeper tip as we look ahead at Everton’s enticing run of fixtures. These “kind” fixtures of course started two weeks ago with the visit of Sunderland, who scored twice to annoy many a manger who had banked a clean sheet for the Toffees! Well, it’s Villa up next and to be fair the fixtures, on paper at least look great until after Christmas – after Villa it’s Bournemouth (a), Palace (h), Norwich (a), Leicester (h), Newcastle (a), Stoke (h) – there has to be some clean sheets in there. To further the case the return of Leighton Baines is imminent, which will strengthen the defence and while Howard is owned by 7% of teams, that’s still not a big figure in the grand scheme of things. At 5.1mln he is more expensive than Begovic, but in Howard’s defence the American has contributed at least one save point in all but one game-week so far.

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[/three_fourth]Wayne Hennessey of Crystal Palace is owned by 8% of all managers, which is a little higher than we’d like as a differential, but c’mon he only costs 4mln and he has home matches vs Sunderland and Newcastle next! He has, for now, made the keeper jersey his own under Lord Pardew, despite competition from the now fit Julian Speroni and the early season choice Alex McCarthy. He made some crucial saves in last week’s win at Anfield, which came after Pardew said in his presser, “Hennessey is my no.1 at the moment, but has to play well to keep his place.” Well, he responded pretty well to that challenge at the weekend and at that price you’re not going to get much better than him for a playing keeper. Since taking over the reins, Hennessey has kept three clean sheets in six matches and with Palace getting the likes of Pape Soaure and Joel Ward back fit, one should reasonably expect the Palace backline to tighten up somewhat.

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[/three_fourth]One other keeper to very briefly bring to your attention is Newcastle’s Rob Elliot – or as he is more commonly known, Mito’s NBF (new best friend). Now we are not suggesting that the Toon are likely to keep a whole load of clean sheets or that their defence has suddenly become irresistible, though in fairness they have kept two clean sheets in a row for the first time ever, probably. But get this you bargain hunters – there are plenty of managers who look to spend as little as possible on keepers – for 8mln you can get both Hennessey and Elliot and they rotate home and away perfectly until GW28. Elliot is owned by just 1.6% of teams and is only playing due to Tim Krul’s season ending injury. The fixtures are ok, without being amazing but if you are one of the many managers who like to budget playing keepers to maximise your spending elsewhere then Elliot and Hennessey are certainly two to consider.

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Defenders

This was probably the easiest section to research and write, for the more we delved into ownership numbers, the more differentials we found. They’re not necessarily bargain basement but all offer what we believe, decent returns of investment in the foreseeable future. Some are bonus point magnets, others are more attacking.

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[/three_fourth]Pape Souare has become an integral part of Palace’s defence and could be a great purchase for those wanting to take advantage of some decent looking fixtures for the Eagles. Priced at just 4.5mln, Souare missed game-weeks 10 & 11 through injury, but was brought straight back into the team for the win at Liverpool at the weekend and has clearly impressed Pardew since arriving from Lille in January. He is owned by just 2.1% of teams and would make an ideal rotating 3rd defender with one other alongside two more expensive options. Successive home matches with Sunderland and Newcastle follow for Soaure and with Pardew getting his first choice defence back together it’s likely that further clean sheets will follow, buoyed by last week’s win at Liverpool.

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[/three_fourth]When City forked out £28.5mln for reported United target Nicolas Otamendi, many thought the club had pulled off a great purchase. However when Otamendi took his time to bed in and indeed gain a starting spot, the doubters were heard cheering that United had a lucky escape – especially as City failed to keep a clean sheet in Otamendi’s first four games, after opening the campaign with five clean sheets on the bounce. However, the return of Vincent Kompany alongside Otamendi in GW10 saw City tighten up, conceding just one goal in the last three and that goal was due to Joe Hart dropping a harmless cross. In those three matches, Otamendi has scored once and returned eight bonus points and 27 points in total. City’s fixtures continue to look relatively kind and it seems Otamendi is a bonus point magnet with an added reputation for scoring. Granted he’s not cheap at 6.5mln, but if you’re looking for a differential at a top club then he is your man – owned by just 1.0% of teams.

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[/three_fourth]Ben Davies owners look away now!! Having struggled preseason and for the first few game-weeks with injury, Danny Rose was the forgotten man and Davies was in situ. Rose did make a brief appearance in GW4 and helped Spurs keep a clean sheet at home to Everton. The left back then missed the four game-weeks before returning in GW9 where Spurs kept another clean sheet in another goalless draw – this time vs Liverpool. The last three weeks have seen Spurs concede on each occasion, however Rose has assisted in every one of these games meaning in just five matches he has returned 31pts and now is first choice left back for Spurs in the league. Need any further convincing? Ok – Rose is owned by just 1.6% of teams and is available for 5.2mln.

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[/three_fourth]Southampton are getting their act together at the back and it has coincided with the return from injury of Ryan Bertrand. Two clean sheets in their last two matches, albeit vs a strikerless Bournemouth and a toothless Sunderland have seen the potential return to the backline and Bertrand has begun to show the attacking flair he displayed at the start of last season – two assists in his last two matches have seen him return 19pts in that time – sadly a booking at Sunderland took away any bonus points but even so with home matches vs Stoke and Villa up next it could be 5.3mln well spent. His defensive giant of a partner Virgil van Dijk is our other Saints recommendation at the back – and to be fair we like both and which one you choose depends on personal preference and possibly budget. Van Dijk is slightly more expensive at 5.6mln, but his ability to clear cross after cross makes him a bonus point magnet – he has already returned 7 bonus points this season, including two at Sunderland. Both have extremely low ownership – van Dijk is currently at 3.3%, while Bertrand is even lower at just 1.7%.

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[/three_fourth]Our final recommendation is Marcos Rojo. United as we all know have become a defensive wall under LVG – eight clean sheets in twelve game-weeks speaks for itself and on paper, their fixtures are only getting easier. So some United defensive coverage is advised, if not a must, surely? The obvious names are David de Gea and Chris Smalling, but neither can be classed as differentials with DDG owned by 11.8% of teams and Smalling a whopping 27.2% – Smalling costs 6.7m now – how times have changed! Rojo has benefitted from Luke Shaw’s long term injury to make the left back spot his own – he took his time to get there as Shaw started the season well, while Rojo “lost his passport” on the way back from South America in the summer, not something that LVG appreciated – or indeed forgave, until Shaw got injured. Rojo has started the last four games and United have kept a clean sheet in all of them – he has also assisted once and brought in three bonus points. All for just 5.5mln – and only owned by 3.1% of teams! There must be a catch. Well, there is, sadly – and that is Rojo’s involvement in the next game-week at Watford is not guaranteed due to his travelling with Argentina and United being the early game in GW13. So keep an ear out to see if Rojo actually plays for his national team next week and whether he remembers to return and then for LVG’s presser. If he’s good to go, then he’s a great option.

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Midfielders

The injury to Dimitri Payet has given thousands of players an easier avenue to affording Aguero. With Payet likely to be missing for around three months we can now forget about him, move on and look for our next star performer. In midfield we’ll look at some options that we believe may be worthwhile investing in, have decent fixtures ahead and also save you some cash.

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[/three_fourth]Chelsea midfield returns have this season been shocking, with Eden Hazard scoring just once, Pedro scoring most of his points in his first two matches and Cesc Fabregas, last season’s assist master creating just one goal thus far and losing his starting spot. It’s clearly not been a happy time for Jose, but the one player he has continually picked out for praise and who has been Chelsea’s best player over the last month or so has been Willian. Often criticised for his inconsistency the Brazilian has scored twice and also assisted twice this season, as well as being instrumental in Chelsea’s recent Champions League victory over Dynamo Kiev when he made the first goal and scored the winner late on. With Chelsea’s run of fixtures now looking appetising, it’s likely that many will still be cautious of spending almost 11mln on Hazard and have already been burnt with Pedro. At 6.8mln Willian may be worth a punt, he is loved by Mourinho at the moment and owned by just 3.7% of teams.

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[/three_fourth]Gerard Deulofeu is finally beginning to show the form that led the Toffees to firstly loan him from and then buy him permanently from Barcelona. Now free of injury he is getting a run in the side and seems to have nailed a starting spot in an attacking team ahead of Aaron Lennon and Kevin Mirallas. With a goal and six assists already this season, the young Spaniard seems to have finally improved his delivery with exquisite crosses in the last two matches resulting in goals for Romelu Lukaku. With the appetising run of fixtures ahead for Everton, many managers will likely punt on Deulofeu and with not only those fixtures, but also form and value on his side, it would make perfect sense to help fund Aguero by selling the injured Payet and buying Deulofeu and it’s a move that we would happily endorse. The Spaniard is the sort of young and creative player that manager Roberto Martinez will love to nurture and with rumours that Kevin Mirallas is unsettled at the club, expect Deulofeu to mature as the season progresses.

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[/three_fourth]Mousa Dembele has struggled to gain a starting berth at Spurs since his arrival from Fulham in 2012 but recent showings suggest that he is starting to prove why United were looking at him in his Craven Cottage days. Recently his three goals in three consecutive matches for Spurs have seen him appear once more on our radars and if you are looking for a cheapish midfielder then 5.3mln is good value for a scoring midfielder who has decent fixtures coming up. Aside from Chelsea in GW14 (and that’s not necessarily a tough game right now), Spurs have a lovely run of games all the way through to City in GW26 and it wouldn’t be a surprise to us to see Dembele continue this current form as he feeds off the lay offs of Harry Kane and the creative impact of Christian Eriksen and Erik Lamela.

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[/three_fourth]With Payet missing from the Hammers midfield, much of the responsibility will fall upon the shoulders of Manuel Lanzini – the young Argentine attacking midfielder joined on loan from Al Jazira (the club, not the news agency), and has become an integral part of Slaven Bilic’s plans – and that will likely only increase with Payet’s absence. Lanzini has already scored three goals and piked up two assists this term and although his fixtures are mixed going forward, at 5.3mln he could be used in rotation with a third striker. If you want to keep Hammers exposure then Lanzini is your man and is owned by just 0.9% of teams. Bilic will be working over this international break on how his side will play and create chances without Payet, who looked so dynamic in the first few gameweeks – expect Lanzini to be a big part of life without Payet.

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Forwards

Now forwards we struggled with somewhat – it is the position that traditionally delivers the most points and differentials are tough to sell to managers who would prefer, quite understandably, to focus on the “safer” players to deliver the big points. This is illustrated perfectly when you look at the ownership levels – Vardy (52.8%) – cheap, nasty and scores every week. Pelle (33.7%), Lukaku (29.4%), Kane (22%), Martial (20.6), Ighalo (17.7%), Benteke (14.4%). So if we accept that most live teams have Vardy and one of the other aforementioned names and then plan on getting Aguero as soon as possible, it leaves very little room for a differential up front. But I’ll try and sell you one of the below names and you can shout me down.

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[/three_fourth]We’re going to kick off with Chelsea again and Diego Costa. Just two goals this season, threatening to maim anyone who comes in his way, he is one angry man, living the mind of Mourinho on the field. So why the heck would you consider Costa. Well, we know he has ability, we know he scores goals and we know his fixtures are sumptuous going forward. It’s a punt on Chelsea, on Mourinho (if he stays), on the ability of Hazard, Oscar, Pedro, Willian, Fabregas to create chances for Costa and at home to Norwich, Bournemouth, Sunderland and Watford, are you seriously saying they won’t improve? Cheaper than Aguero by 2mln and while Kun is settling himself in is it really that big a gamble to punt on Costa. His ownership is just 6.3% and they say fortune favours the brave – don’t say you weren’t warned.

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[/three_fourth]The Gooners are left with just one striker – sure he misses loads of chances, sure he’s more concerned with his hair than his goal scoring, sure he’s lazy and unpredictable – but Olivier Giroud is Arsenal’s only fit striker!! Theo Walcott remains out and Giroud will simply play every game. He has FPL’s current assist machine, Ozil setting them up on a plate and soon he’ll be banging them in – it’s West Brom next, then Norwich, then Sunderland, then Villa. Chances will be aplenty for the French maverick while Walcott is nursed back to his next injury. While we focus on Giroud’s missed chances, it’s well worth noting he has scored four in his last five matches – not so bad a record for the lazy one. You can buy Giroud for 8.8mln and he is owned by less than 8% of teams.

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[/three_fourth]Our third differential is Everton’s Arouna Kone. Don’t laugh. Owned by 6.7% of teams Kone is now showing the form on the pitch that persuaded Roberto Martinez to bring him over from Wigan. Five goals already this season, including the hat-trick vs Sunderland is a fantastic return for that price. Perfect in fact for those who want five decent midfielders and are happy to rotate with a cheap striker. But hold that bus…..those Everton fixtures…we’ve already touched on them when talking about Deulofeu above, but I feel you need more persuasion….Villa (h), Bournemouth (a), Palace (h), Norwich (a), Leicester (h), Newcastle (a), Stoke (h)….for 4.8mln!! That’s almost 4mln less than his striker partner Lukaku and cheaper even than Watford’s Odion Ighalo.
What are you waiting for???

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[/three_fourth]Our final striker differential is Tottenham’s Heung-Min Son. Now we fully expect that Harry Kane is going to be your no.1 choice if you want a Spurs striker and on last season’s evidence and on current form I wouldn’t begin to argue with you. However, if money is a tad tight and you still want exposure to Pochettino’s men then Son isn’t a crazy option. He is just coming back from injury, so probably best to hold your horses for a week or two to ensure he is 100% fit and firing but for a 1.6mln saving and with an ownership of just 0.2%, Son would be the ultimate differential. Spurs bought him on the back of his scoring record, which shows 41 goals in 135 games for Hamburg and Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Fixtures are on his side and the Europa League will be out of the way soon, meaning lack of tiredness, lack of rotation, lack of distraction, lack of Sunday games after Thursday night jaunts.

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Well that’s it from me. You may agree or disagree with some or all of the above. Just remember that differentials are exactly that. They differ from the trends and from the template names that have performed well so far this season, therefore there is an element of risk, yet high reward if they come off and reward those who had faith. No one is suggesting that you pick 11 or 15 differentials, but maybe 2 ,3 or 4 in your starting team can make all the difference in climbing the rankings if they work. Take Chelsea for example – clearly there is a risk there because form is rubbish, with the possible exception of Willian – but can we really expect a team with the likes of Begovic/Courtois, Terry, Hazard, Pedro, Fabregas, Willian and Costa perform badly for a whole season? It’s extremely unlikely and it could just be that Norwich at home is the start of some sort of recovery.

Whatever your thoughts, please share your comments below and let us know if there are any other names on your radar right now.

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Thanks for reading Time for a differential . This article was written by Cookie

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