Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Hi, would appreciate some feedback on my team for GW1…
I did have Depay and Costa but swapped for Hazard and Benteke this morning based on Costa’s hamstring and Depay being new to the league.
My current considerations are:
1) Milner or Henderson
2) Ramsey or Depay
3) Darmian or Clyne
4) Cech or Courtois
Mine would be :
1) Milner
2) Depay
3) Clyne
4) Courtious
Hi Ian
I’d say get some City coverage in that team mate. I’d try to snip £2M from somewhere (Lukaku maybe?) to upgrade Henderson to Sterling.
You could save by swapping Vorm to a 4.0M GK as I assume Courtois will play most weeks for you anyway.
Thanks for the advice GP.
I like the suggestion to get some City players in.
I’m not convinced by their defence, so presumably it would either have to be Sterling or Aguero.
Might hold out until GW4 as City don’t have the best start. But I think Sterling will do well!
double pool attack is a waste. rather upgrade henderson to sterling!
Hi Guy can you have a look at my team and give some feedback
Howard
Clyne, Azpilicueta, Koscielny, Baines
Chadli, Milner, Ramsey
Kane, Benteke, Giroud
Guzan, Walters, Ki Sung-yueng, Rose
Dazza – For me, this is grossly unbalanced. There’s way, way too much invested in defenders and, besides, Everton have the roughest fixtures to start with so doubling up on them isn’t going to work at all. How will you get Hazard/Aguero? Nah, this ain’t gonna work, for me.
+1
Dazza
I agree with NiN, redress the balance here. Baines (possibly losing PK duties) is the first to go I think. Drop Howard as well down to a 4.5M GK rotating well with Guzan and drop Rose to a 4.5M as well.
Strikers are actually decent and nothing wrong with a bit of variety in there but you might need to have a plan to grab any of Costa/Rooney or Aguero at any time.
Midfield needs one more big hitter in there and with no Chelsea coverage I’d say Hazard needs to be fitted in. If this means skimping on defence or a striker downgrade then it is surely worth it.
Which team should I prefer? Fabby -> Hazard is really difficult and makes my defence shit, is it worth it?
Someone reply :'(
Second one.
Definitely the second one. The defence in the first one was is too expensive for my liking. The second one’s isn’t weak at all. It’s still more expensive than mine!
2nd
Hey guys, how’s it going? Hope your teams are finally starting to take shape. I feel like I’m getting closer and I’m liking my keeper and defense at the moment. Now to sort out the mids and forwards! I’ve heard a lot of talk recently of people going with Defoe rather than rolling the dice with Deeney/Wilson/Ighalo. Is Defoe definitely nailed? And what are people’s thoughts on starting off with Sterling/Silva even though City have a rough schedule to start? I’m definitely planning for Aguero sometime after the Chelsea match in gw2, but do we need Sterling/Silva AND Aguero?
Here’s how I’m set up for now, planning on dropping either Cazorla/Ozil for Siggy after his gw1 match against Chelsea, which will leave me funds to upgrade Rooney to Aguero. I think 2 transfers to get Aguero by gw 3/4 is reasonable and (hopefully!) not too elaborate. Any thoughts on how I could improve this lot would be appreciated!
Pants Hennessey (thanks NIN!)
Azpi Cedric Francis Huth Lescott
Hazard Cazorla Wanyama Ozil Chadli
Rooney Defoe Pelle
2.0 ITB.
Hey Red, how goes it. I’m on draft #747 myself and don’t think I’m quite there yet myself.
– I’ve given Defoe some thought, but still have Deeney in there.
– It all hinges on JRod for me – if it looks like he’s a sure starter on GW 1 he’ll be in there for me, freeing up funds to upgrade my 5th mid.
– I thought someone mentioned McCarthy would be favored over Hennessey now?
– Defense feels a bit light having to rotate those last 3.
– Maybe you could look at Caz/Ozil > Milner/Hendo/Cabaye to upgrade Wanyama?
I’ll post my draft in a minute – please tear it to shreds!
Hey Red how are we Gw thk I would rather have Fabianski over Pants & I assume you are hoping Henn will be 1st choice, good back line , Lescott some tough fixture in 1st 5 GW & I would rather have an att def for that amount cash for Azip but he is steady Haz yes , you could go with Sterling & Silva but I don’t thk you would need Kun then. Its a toss up over Caz & Ozil thk they will be pretty close on points. Been toying on & off with Siggy myself he is a banker Chadli ok
Rooney Pelle I like not so sure on Defoe old now a good player if short term ok
Hey Colriles and Silver, thanks for the feedback fellas. Not too concerned about Hennessey starting tbh. That could change to any 4.0 keeper because if I go with Pants he’ll start every week and hopefully get peppered with shots all day like last season. Just looking for save points and the odd clean sheet from him. Francis/Lescott rotate and Huth/Cedric rotate. Don’t really like any of the other rotation pairs on offer for the money so I’m relatively comfortable with my defense. Milner/Hendo/Cabaye all on the watchlist for sure, just waiting for their fixtures to improve, like Chadli’s schedule better to start. Off to play some tennis for a bit Colriles, I’ll be on after lunch and will check out your draft so please post it up! Thanks again guys.
RedVT – All aboard the Pants train! Choo-choo
Yeah buddy, choo-choo!!
Gday lads. Hope all is well. Quite happy with this team overall. Thoughts?
Hey Tom, how’s it going? Nice looking side with lots of differentials compared to most of the teams I’ve seen posted. That’s a beastly midfield you’ve got, but having Chadli as a 5th midfielder seems like leaving a lot of money on the bench to me. JRod not nailed to start and playing 2nd fiddle to Pelle is a concern, so I’d watch for clues on that as we approach gw1. I love JRod though and would consider him too if he was certain to start. Ward has some tough matches to begin the season, but I assume you’ve researched your defenders and they rotate well when he faces Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man City in the first 5 weeks.
What’s your plan to get Aguero in?
Hey Red. Nice to hear from you. Thanks heaps for the feedback!
Yeah Ward will rotate with O’Shea and Wollscheid throughout the first few gameweeks at least. I’m a Southampton fan so it’s great to see J-Rod back fit and firing. Great player when he’s on! You’re right, we will have to monitor him though. I was thinking the same thing about Chadli. It is a lot of money for the bench but the plan is to sacrifice Chadli for perhaps Wanyama or another 4.5 midfielder. Then go Rooney to Aguero.
Tom, if you’re planning on downgrading Chadli anyway, why not downgrade him now and use the funds generated to upgrade Vardy? Then when you want Aguero downgrade Vardy and upgrade Rooney. It would maximise money spent on your playing eleven..
For me, I would try and squeeze 0,5m out for Yaya to Sterling too.
Whats the plan if Rooney gets a hattrick and a brace in his first 2?
team looks solid. well belanced. though i have sterling and walcott in place of yaya and caz.
but these two could do wonders too.
all the best
Hey all,
Thoughts on my more attacking side? Had to get Hazard in and have picked Berahino on the assumption he’ll get to my boys Tottenham. Again, am a very green aussie at FPL so considering rotations and fixturing is concept I’ve not considered as much in other fantasy sports.
Also looking for any kind of distraction from the 3rd test atm, what a shocker!
Any and all feedback much appreciated!
Hey Sheedz, I like this team quite a bit, not much to criticize. Having Ki as 5th mid is a huge upgrade imo to all the 4.5/5.0 mids. Only thought is maybe Silva > Sterling in order to upgrade Berahino? But Silva should be in the points and seems like a differential to most folks who already have Sterling. Still waiting to hear what the starting back 4 from Bou will be myself.