Analytical Guide to Fixtures GW1 – GW8
This article looks to review the importance of a team’s fixtures and how to use rotation in a slightly different way to the existing tools and opinions available on FPL selection.
The highlights (for the opening 8 GW’s) are:
Attacking
– Arsenal and Man United look the strongest of the big teams
– Southampton and Swansea are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and Bournemouth are likely to be the best budget teams (and both rotate well with Crystal Palace)
Defending
– Chelsea are the stand out team defensively
– Southampton and West ham are good for mid priced teams
– Leicester and West Brom are the best budget options (and rotate well with West ham and Southampton)
In general
– There are some teams that have very strong fixtures and so don’t need to be rotated (Chelsea and the attacks of Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City)
– There are a few teams I would steer well clear of for the first 8 weeks (Newcastle, Watford, Norwich)
– Always remember that some players can be fixture proof; regardless of the team they play for.
– Always have an Exit/Entry strategy in place as team fixtures change, the bargains become obvious and Aguero becomes fit.
If understanding how I got to these conclusions is of interest then read on… otherwise good luck this year.
The importance of rotation for your FPL team….
with analysis on the opening 8 GW’s of the 2015/16 season.
There are some very good fixture analysers (and opinions) out there in the FPL community. Some of them are very helpful for team planning when used correctly. The one thing I have consistently found is that they place too much reliance on rotating pairs, both home and away, (e.g. Newcastle and Sunderland) and less emphasis on the quality of the opposition. Personally I would rather have Stoke away to Sunderland than Newcastle at home to Everton…
An important omission from this article (one for another day) is the importance of having an entry and exit strategy for all your players. Injuries happen, bargains become available, standout players shine, transfers happen and big game players become fit again. Be mindful on this as long term planning is key to a successful season and all poor teams have a couple of good players… Although 2 wildcards does help.
For the purpose of this analysis (and how I like to pick my team) I have a few criteria I like to follow. These are:
– Always separate a team’s attacking potential from its defensive potential.
– Form, playing style, player’s average ability all factor into a team’s potential.
– Don’t underestimate the positive (and negative) impact of transfers/injuries.
– Playing home and away have an impact as well (but it’s not the most important thing).
– Big Teams can have bad fixtures.
– Small Teams can have good fixtures.
– Every team no matter how bad has a couple of standout players (there is an ‘I’ in some teams).
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The opening 8 fixtures
I have chosen to look at the opening 8 fixtures for this year’s season, as you have to plan, but beyond 8-10 weeks is too far in FPL. Remember to factor in your weekly transfers as the fixtures shift and with it so do the fortunes of your budget teams. Having a banked transfer always helps and avoids unnecessary point’s hits.
The opening fixtures look like this:
Based on the opening 8 fixtures I would expect the league table to be ordered something like this:
(*Please note that this reflects the teams overall ability and ,as mentioned above, to get a team’s true potential for FPL you need to break them out into attacking potential and defensive potential.)
Focussing on the overall fixtures could lead to some incorrect assumptions around which FPL players to choose. While on face value the above table suggests it is best to steer clear of the bottom 5-6 teams there is definitely value in some of them. Going on just the overall view of the teams we can see the following likelihood of the teams having positive opening results:
When we split out the teams attacking and defensive ability and look to rotate you can find a lot of value in those bottom (budget) teams. The “Pulis affect” at West Brom is one I particularly like for their defence (especially when rotating with Southampton or Palace).
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Looking at the top 6 teams we can see that for all of them their attacks are likely to do well. However all, except Chelsea, are likely to have a harder time defensively.
In order to achieve an optimal FPL return it is clear that you need to adopt a balanced approach between players from the big 6, mid table and budget teams. The key to the latter 2 is rotation pairs.
To identify which teams you should pick players from it is important to know, defensively and offensively, who needs to rotate and who will stand on their own.
Attack rotation need:
No Rotation
– Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd, Tottenham
Low Rotation
– Liverpool, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Stoke, Swansea, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford, West Brom
Defence rotation need:
No Rotation
– Chelsea
Low Rotation
– Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Southampton
Rotate
– Villa, Bournemouth, Palace, Everton, Leicester, Liverpool, Stoke, Swansea, Tottenham, West Brom, West ham
Avoid (unless stand out bargain is obvious)
– Newcastle, Norwich, Sunderland, Watford
So focussing on the teams with a rotation need who do they rotate well with?
Each team with a rotation need has 2-3 good options. Rotate 1 is the best but in all cases the rotation sees a big positive impact. Team type determines if they are a big 6 (1), mid table (2) or budget team (3) so aiming for budget rotations frees up more cash.
Attacking Rotations:
Defensive Rotations:
There are clearly plenty of options available in both attack and defence. Personally I recommend rotating budget teams with a mid-table team or another budget team. For my defence I will be looking at a combined cost of £9-9.5million per pair. For my attackers I will look to rotate based on my available funds once I have 8-9 of the team selected.
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As a case study we could take newly promoted Bournemouth and look to rotate them with the best budget/Mid table team.
By combining West Hams defence (options at £5.0m) with Bournemouth’s (options at £4.5m) we will be likely to rival that of Man City’s and Arsenal’s £6m defenders. In attack choosing Players such as Bournemouth’s Matt Ritchie (On Pens) and Palace’s Patrick Bamford (championship player of the season) you can fill up 2 attacking slots for less than £12m freeing up cash to get the all important heavy hitters. This might not seem a lot but it’s the difference between Oscar and Hazard in your team. And you get 7-8 good to great fixtures in the next 8 weeks:
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Conclusion:
There are plenty of options available for team rotations in the opening 8 game weeks. By aiming for budget options you can end up with 1 or 2 extra, and very important, heavy hitters.
In attack I recommend:
– 3-4 players from Man Utd, Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.
– 1 player from a mid table team (or looks cheap) who has big potential (e.g. -Bolasie/Milner/Tadic/Schneiderlin)
– 3-5 players from mid table and budget teams that rotate well (and ideally take pens or set pieces)
In defence I recommend:
– A nailed on Chelsea defender
– 2 budget keepers who rotate well
– 2 pairs of budget/mid table defenders who rotate well (e.g. Southampton/West Brom and West Ham/Leicester)
Important additions:
– Every team has a stand out player (or two), from defence and attack, who suck up most of their teams points (e.g. Janmaat at Newcastle and Sigurdson at Swansea). These guys can be almost fixture proof as the heavy hitters.
– Plan for injuries, transfers, the fixture landscape changing and spotting the season bargains early. Banked transfers help to react to these.
Following all of this you have a great chance to get a head start on your mini-league rivals.
Good luck for the season and if you like what you have read then please follow –
And many thanks to the following for the proof read and recommendations –
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Caulker and Chester could interesting picks. Presume both will be priced at 5m
Caulker would be good if he could recreate his Cardiff form as he was a major threat from set plays there, I’d think he’d want to forget his QPR form, don’t think Chester would be a starter for WBA yet, might be one to watch out for later.
Chester’s signing for £8m, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t a starter.
Yeah I think he is pretty safe. Olsson and Macouly are both pretty old
Can’t remember off the top of me head how often he’s been injured/suspended over the last two seasons but he never managed to be a regular in the Hull team. He always seemed to be behind Davies.
best striker for 5.5m
Defoe, Wilson or Deeney. Prob not much between them
Bojan in his second season in the EPL could be a great shout, especially with Stoke bolstering their squad a bit.
Here’s my squad as of now. My thoughts are Ivan/Fab/Sakho -> Azp/Haz/Bamford
1. Fabregas started last season way better than Haz. Do I run that risk this year?
2. Is Ivan worth the 1m more than Azp?
I think Azpilicueta/Hazard would be a better combo than Ivanovic/Fabregas. Did you see Hazard’s run in the Barca game? He’s in fabulous form.
Thanks for the feedback. I didn’t see it, but it’s good to hear about his form. I feel as though the lack of World Cup this summer makes it difficult to judge who will make a quick start in the early season and who will take time to warm into it. Slow starters from last season may break out right away this season.
Exactly, and the first games of the season are always nervy, so anything could happen.
Hello guys..RMT my second draft..what can i do with the present squad??
I’d look to upgrade Jedinak to someone in the 6-7m price bracket. Maybe Cabaye. You could get the funds from changing Bertand (who’s an injury doubt anyway) to Cedric or even Ivanovic to Azpilicueta.
Baker won’t start so ideally you’d want to change him for a 4.5 but I can understand if you’re content to have a non-playing defender, given your strong defence.
Hi constant, few queries on some personnel –
Bellerin – is he defo nailed on? I’m not sure now with Debuchy back and Chambers lurking for a spot also.
Bertrand – what’s that flag?
Jedinak and Wanyama – I think there’s better value to be had there.
Ulloa – not seen him in many teams and could be a great differential but just check if he’s consistently starting in pre-season as Ranieri isn’t the most reliable at keeping settled teams!
Ivan to Azpi could be an easy way to release some cash to beef up those midfield slots I mentioned.
Evening all!
Think I’m ready for the first RMT this season!
There are several positions I’m not sure about. Was originally planning on two rotating GK’s like ive played with the last season, problem is that I dont find to many good combos. Suggestions?
I’m happy with my defense in the way that I will have 3 defenders with good fixtures over the first 10 GWs, only problem is that it dont have much assist/goalscoring ability.
Finally, Deeney is a player I know nothing about what so ever!
Spent all 100m on this, please have a go at it
It’s a great team, not too much I can say about it. I’m considering going with Pantilimon as my only keeper and I know some others on here are too. As for rotating keepers, I’ve seen a few people with Butland and Ruddy so that could be one to look into.
Hey guys, I asked this earlier today but was wondering if there were any more thoughts about it. Is anyone planning on having Sterling/Silva AND Aguero in their side? Or would you be happy with just Aguero?
And does anyone know if Defoe is definitely nailed on to start?
And lastly, what 4.5 5th midfielders are there that are worth considering? I’ve seen Wanyama, Albrighton, Sinclair, Anya, and Surman discussed. Are there any others that are fairly nailed on to balance the books?
Hi Red, missed the earlier post but the thought has crossed my mind. I’ll probably leave Kun for GW1 unless we get a proper steer on his availability but yes the other 2 could be a great combo.
As for Defoe – I’d think so.
As for the 4.5’s I’m not seeing any outside of the ones you mentioned that are jumping out at me.
Thanks init, I appreciate it. I’m gonna wait to get Aguero until at least after the Chelsea match in gw2. Just not sure whether to start off with Sterling or not. In addition to City’s tough schedule, he eats up a midfield spot which could go to an Arsenal player for instance, since I’ll have Aguero for City coverage anyway. Man, it’s tough to fit everyone I want in. Been seriously flirting with going 3-5-2 just because there is so much value in the midfield players this year!
Hi Red – at the moment I plan to drop Sterling to get Aguero in when he’s ready. But if he’s scoring well then I’d keep him and take out someone that isn’t.
You’d certainly expect Defoe to be in the starting XI but wasn’t he sometimes playing on the right last season?
Maybe Gareth Barry? Although I’m not sure whether he’ll be a regular now that Cleverley has signed.
Thanks bihom, I’m really on the fence about having Sterling from the start. I think he’s going to be great value this season but I can really only afford one premium midfielder next to Hazard and I think that spot will end up going to one of the Arsenal boys most likely. Thanks for you thoughts on Defoe and the Gareth Barry suggestion, forgot about him!
If you’re still around, who do you like for a budget 5.5 or less striker? I was leaning toward Defoe just for his experience and Sunderland’s decent opening schedule. Really like Wilson’s pace and Deeney’s record but I’m weary of risking a spot on one of the new guys until we see them play a few matches.
I’d certainly prefer an Arsenal midfielder to Sterling, so I wouldn’t worry too much if you can’t fit him in.
I’ve got Deeney at the moment, mainly due to him being on penalties. He’s scored a few in preseason so that has eased my concerns somewhat but it is still a bit of a gamble. It even took Austin a few weeks to settle last season.
Cheers bihom, I appreciate your thoughts. Might have to take a punt on one of the new boys, I do like GP’s point that their teams will depend on them more. And everyone like a little gamble sometimes.
I’ve read that Pellegrini has confirmed that all of the Citeh Copa crew have been confirmed as out for GW 1 courtesy of Ben Dinnery on twitter, haven’t read any article on it personally.
Not come across anything official either yet Andy other than what you’ve seen. Really need to hear it from Pell himself as I have a sneaky feeling Kun may play.
I’ve been thinking that to, he’s still in my team and has been from the beginning but I am starting to waver a little, it’s a lot of £££’s on a gut call.
Red
He starts Sunderland’s pre-season match in attack tonight alongside Steven Fletcher.
Red
Played 45 mins – he’s just been subbed off at half time.
Cheers Gallant, thanks for the Defoe information! Do you like him as a cheapo 3rd striker, or would you roll the dice with Wilson/Deeney and hope they can make the step up?
Red
I like the promoted teams strikers purely because their teams will rely on them more than Sunderland might on Defoe. Sunderland have a lot more quality surrounding Defoe so gametime comes in to it (as shown tonight albeit pre-season) whereas Watford rely on Deeney and likewise, Wilson is huge for Bournemouth.
Deeney shades it for me.
Good points Gallant, thank you for your thoughts as always. How’s your team coming along? You still thinking about going with Cabaye from the off? I really like him (and his price!), just wish his opening fixtures were a little nicer! I think I may go with Chadli to start and then be ready to move to Milner/Hendo/Cabaye depending on how everyone is playing. But that’ll probably change a few times before the deadline anyway.
Red
Cabaye is in there just now
Ruddy/Butland
Cedric Jenkinson Azpilicueta Lescott Francis
Redmond Cazorla Hazard Sterling Cabaye
Pelle Rooney Wilson